Monitoring of antiretroviral therapy and mortality in HIV programmes in Malawi, South Africa and Zambia: mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference. DESIGN Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes. METHODS We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained. RESULTS RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74-1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77-1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44-1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality. CONCLUSIONS VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.

Tenofovir or zidovudine in second-line antiretroviral therapy after stavudine failure in southern Africa

BACKGROUND There is debate over using tenofovir or zidovudine alongside lamivudine in second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) following stavudine failure. We analyzed outcomes in cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe METHODS: Patients aged ≥16 years who switched from a first-line regimen including stavudine to a ritonavir-boosted lopinavir-based second-line regimen with lamivudine or emtricitabine and zidovudine or tenofovir in seven ART programs in southern Africa were included. We estimated the causal effect of receiving tenofovir or zidovudine on mortality and virological failure using Cox proportional hazards marginal structural models. Its parameters were estimated using inverse probability of treatment weights. Baseline characteristics were age, sex, calendar year and country. CD4 cell count, creatinine and hemoglobin levels were included as time-dependent confounders. RESULTS 1,256 patients on second-line ART, including 958 on tenofovir, were analyzed. Patients on tenofovir were more likely to have switched to second-line ART in recent years, spent more time on first-line ART (33 vs. 24 months) and had lower CD4 cell counts (172 vs. 341 cells/μl) at initiation of second-line ART. The adjusted hazard ratio comparing tenofovir with zidovudine was 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.59-1.68) for virologic failure and 1.40 (0.57-3.41) for death. CONCLUSIONS We did not find any difference in treatment outcomes between patients on tenofovir or zidovudine; however, the precision of our estimates was limited. There is an urgent need for randomized trials to inform second-line ART strategies in resource-limited settings.

Correlation between subjective evaluation of symptoms and objective findings in early recurrent head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

IMPORTANCE This study addresses the value of patients' reported symptoms as markers of tumor recurrence after definitive therapy for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the correlation between patients' symptoms and objective findings in the diagnosis of local and/or regional recurrences of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas in the first 2 years of follow-up. DESIGN Retrospective single-institution study of a prospectively collected database. SETTING Regional hospital. PARTICIPANTS We reviewed the clinical records of patients treated for oral cavity, oropharyngeal, laryngeal, and hypopharyngeal carcinomas between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2009, with a minimum follow-up of 2 years. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Correlation between symptoms and oncologic status (recurrence vs remission) in the posttreatment period. RESULTS Of the 101 patients included, 30 had recurrences. Pain, odynophagia, and dysphonia were independently correlated with recurrence (odds ratios, 16.07, 11.20, and 5.90, respectively; P < .001). New-onset symptoms had the best correlation with recurrences. Correlation was better between 6 to 12 and 18 to 21 months after therapy and in patients initially treated unimodally (P < .05). Primary stage and tumor site had no effect. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The correlation between symptoms and oncologic status is low during substantial periods within the first 2 years of follow-up. New-onset symptoms, especially pain, odynophagia, or dysphonia, better correlate with tumor recurrence, especially in patients treated unimodally.

Recurrence due to neoplastic seeding in head and neck cancer: report of two cases and review of the literature

AIMS AND BACKGROUND Tumor progression due to seeding of tumor cells after definitive treatment for squamous cell carcinomas of the head and neck is an uncommon condition that can considerably worsen the outcome of patients with head and neck cancer. METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN We report two cases of recurrence due to neoplastic seeding from oropharyngeal and oral cancer, respectively. We performed a literature review with MEDLINE as the main search engine. RESULTS Seeding was found to occur most often in tracheotomy scars and gastrostomy sites. The oral cavity, hypopharynx and oropharynx were the primary sites in most cases, and advanced tumor stage seemed to be a risk factor for seeding. Treatment options include salvage surgery, which requires thorough resections, radiotherapy when possible, and palliative management. The prognosis of such events is poor. CONCLUSION Although neoplastic seeding is a well-known phenomenon in cancer surgery, many questions remain unanswered, especially regarding preventive measures and management strategies.

Hard thermal loop benchmark for the extraction of the nonperturbative QQ[over ¯] potential

The extraction of the finite temperature heavy quark potential from lattice QCD relies on a spectral analysis of the Wilson loop. General arguments tell us that the lowest lying spectral peak encodes, through its position and shape, the real and imaginary parts of this complex potential. Here we benchmark this extraction strategy using leading order hard-thermal loop (HTL) calculations. In other words, we analytically calculate the Wilson loop and determine the corresponding spectrum. By fitting its lowest lying peak we obtain the real and imaginary parts and confirm that the knowledge of the lowest peak alone is sufficient for obtaining the potential. Access to the full spectrum allows an investigation of spectral features that do not contribute to the potential but can pose a challenge to numerical attempts of an analytic continuation from imaginary time data. Differences in these contributions between the Wilson loop and gauge fixed Wilson line correlators are discussed. To better understand the difficulties in a numerical extraction we deploy the maximum entropy method with extended search space to HTL correlators in Euclidean time and observe how well the known spectral function and values for the real and imaginary parts are reproduced. Possible venues for improvement of the extraction strategy are discussed.

Gender differences in the association of a high quality job and self-esteem over time: A multiwave study

High self-esteem often predicts job-related outcomes, such as high job satisfaction or high status. Theoretically, high quality jobs (HQJs) should be important for self-esteem, as they enable people to use a variety of skills and attribute accomplishments to themselves, but research findings are mixed. We expected reciprocal relationships between self-esteem and HQJ. However, as work often is more important for the status of men, we expected HQJ to have a stronger influence on self-esteem for men as compared to women. Conversely, task-related achievements violate gender stereotypes for women, who may need high self-esteem to obtain HQJs. In a 4-year cross-lagged panel analysis with 325 young workers, self-esteem predicted HQJ; the lagged effect from HQJ on self-esteem was marginally significant. In line with the hypotheses, the multigroup model showed a significant path only from self-esteem to HQJ for women, and from HQJ to self-esteem for men. The reverse effect was not found for women, and only marginally significant for men. Overall, although there were some indications for reciprocal effects, our findings suggest that women need high self-esteem to obtain HQJs to a greater degree than men, and that men base their self-esteem on HQJs to a greater extent than women.

Design of nest access grids and perches in front of the nests: Influence on the behavior of laying hens.

In aviary systems for laying hens, it is important to provide suitable nest access platforms in front of the nests, allowing hens to reach and explore each of the nests easily. This access platform is needed to achieve good nest acceptance by the hens and thereby prevent mislaid eggs. In the present experiment, the behavior of hens using 2 different nest access platforms, a plastic grid and 2 wooden perches, was examined. Furthermore, the nests were placed on both sides of the aviary rack (corridor side and outdoor side), either integrated into the aviary rack itself (integrated nest; IN) or placed on the walls of the pens (wall nest; WN), resulting in a 2 × 2 factorial design Four thousand five hundred white laying hens were housed in 20 test pens. The eggs in the nests and mislaid eggs were collected daily, and the behavior of hens on the nest accesses was filmed during wk 25 and 26, using focal observation and scan sampling methods. More balancing, body contact, and agonistic interactions were expected for nests with perches, whereas more walking and nest inspections were expected for nests with grids. There were more mislaid eggs and balancing found in pens equipped with nests with wooden perches. More agonistic interactions and balancing, less standing, and a longer duration of nest inspection were found with the WN compared with the IN. Interactions between platform design and position of the nests were found for duration of nest visits, body contact, and walking, with the highest amount for WN equipped with plastic grids. Nests on the corridor side were favored by the hens. Nest-related behaviors, such as nest inspection, standing, and walking, decreased over time as did the number of hens on the nest accesses, whereas sitting increased. These results indicate that the hens had more difficulties in gripping the perches as designed. The lower number of hens on the nest access platforms in front of IN may be due to a better distribution around nests and tier changes within the aviary rack. Based on these results, grids rather than perches provide for improved nesting behavior.

Comparing growth trajectories of risk behaviors from late adolescence through young adulthood: An accelerated design

Risk behaviors such as substance use or deviance are often limited to the early stages of the life course. Whereas the onset of risk behavior is well studied, less is currently known about the decline and timing of cessation of risk behaviors of different domains during young adulthood. Prevalence and longitudinal developmental patterning of alcohol use, drinking to the point of drunkenness, smoking, cannabis use, deviance, and HIV-related sexual risk behavior were compared in a Swiss community sample (N = 2,843). Using a longitudinal cohort-sequential approach to link multiple assessments with 3 waves of data for each individual, the studied period spanned the ages of 16 to 29 years. Although smoking had a higher prevalence, both smoking and drinking up to the point of drunkenness followed an inverted U-shaped curve. Alcohol consumption was also best described by a quadratic model, though largely stable at a high level through the late 20s. Sexual risk behavior increased slowly from age 16 to age 22 and then remained largely stable. In contrast, cannabis use and deviance linearly declined from age 16 to age 29. Young men were at higher risk for all behaviors than were young women, but apart from deviance, patterning over time was similar for both sexes. Results about the timing of increase and decline as well as differences between risk behaviors may inform tailored prevention programs during the transition from late adolescence to adulthood.

Design and operation of ARGONTUBE: a 5 m long drift liquid argon TPC

The Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) is a prime type of detector for future large-mass neutrino observatories and proton decay searches. In this paper we present the design and operation, as well as experimental results from ARGONTUBE, a LArTPC being operated at the AEC-LHEP, University of Bern. The main goal of this detector is to prove the feasibility of charge drift over very long distances in liquid argon. Many other aspects of the LArTPC technology are also investigated, such as a voltage multiplier to generate high voltage in liquid argon (Greinacher circuit), a cryogenic purification system and the application of multi-photon ionization of liquid argon by a UV laser. For the first time, tracks induced by cosmic muons and UVlaser beam pulses have been observed and studied at drift distances of up to 5 m, the longest reached to date.

An adjustable focusing system for a 2 MeV H- ion beam line based on permanent magnet quadrupoles

A compact adjustable focusing system for a 2 MeV H- RFQ Linac is designed, constructed and tested based on four permanent magnet quadrupoles (PMQ). A PMQ model is realised using finite element simulations, providing an integrated field gradient of 2.35 T with a maximal field gradient of 57 T/m. A prototype is constructed and the magnetic field is measured, demonstrating good agreement with the simulation. Particle track simulations provide initial values for the quadrupole positions. Accordingly, four PMQs are constructed and assembled on the beam line, their positions are then tuned to obtain a minimal beam spot size of (1.2 x 2.2) mm^2 on target. This paper describes an adjustable PMQ beam line for an external ion beam. The novel compact design based on commercially available NdFeB magnets allows high flexibility for ion beam applications.

Drivers of collaboration to mitigate climate change: An illustration of Swiss climate policy over 15 years

Climate change mitigation policy is driven by scientific knowledge and involves actors from the international, national and local decision-making levels. This multi-level and cross-sectoral context requires collaborative management when designing mitigation solutions over time and space. But collaboration in general policymaking settings, and particularly in the complex domain of climate mitigation, is not an easy task. This paper addresses the question of what drives collaboration among collective actors involved in climate mitigation policy. We wish to investigate whether common beliefs or power structures influence collaboration among actors. We adopt a longitudinal approach to grasp differences between the early and more advanced stages of mitigation policy design. We use survey data to investigate actors’ collaboration, beliefs and power, and apply a Stochastic Actor-oriented Model for network dynamics to three subsequent networks in Swiss climate policy between 1995 and 2012. Results show that common beliefs among actors, as well as formal power structures, have a higher impact on collaboration relations than perceived power structures. Furthermore, those effects hold true for decision-making about initial mitigation strategies, but less so for the implementation of those measures.

The influence of sampling design on tree-ring-based quantification of forest growth

Tree-rings offer one of the few possibilities to empirically quantify and reconstruct forest growth dynamics over years to millennia. Contemporaneously with the growing scientific community employing tree-ring parameters, recent research has suggested that commonly applied sampling designs (i.e. how and which trees are selected for dendrochronological sampling) may introduce considerable biases in quantifications of forest responses to environmental change. To date, a systematic assessment of the consequences of sampling design on dendroecological and-climatological conclusions has not yet been performed. Here, we investigate potential biases by sampling a large population of trees and replicating diverse sampling designs. This is achieved by retroactively subsetting the population and specifically testing for biases emerging for climate reconstruction, growth response to climate variability, long-term growth trends, and quantification of forest productivity. We find that commonly applied sampling designs can impart systematic biases of varying magnitude to any type of tree-ring-based investigations, independent of the total number of samples considered. Quantifications of forest growth and productivity are particularly susceptible to biases, whereas growth responses to short-term climate variability are less affected by the choice of sampling design. The world's most frequently applied sampling design, focusing on dominant trees only, can bias absolute growth rates by up to 459% and trends in excess of 200%. Our findings challenge paradigms, where a subset of samples is typically considered to be representative for the entire population. The only two sampling strategies meeting the requirements for all types of investigations are the (i) sampling of all individuals within a fixed area; and (ii) fully randomized selection of trees. This result advertises the consistent implementation of a widely applicable sampling design to simultaneously reduce uncertainties in tree-ring-based quantifications of forest growth and increase the comparability of datasets beyond individual studies, investigators, laboratories, and geographical boundaries.

Biological, diagnostic and therapeutic relevance of the MET receptor signaling in head and neck cancer.

Head and neck cancer constitutes the 6th most common malignancy worldwide and affects the crucial anatomical structures and physiological functions of the upper aerodigestive tract. Classical therapeutic strategies such as surgery and radiotherapy carry substantial toxicity and functional impairment. Moreover, the loco-regional control rates as well as overall survival still need to be improved in subgroups of patients. The scatter-factor/hepatocyte growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase MET is an established effector in the promotion, maintenance and progression of malignant transformation in a wide range of human malignancies, and has been gaining considerable interest in head and neck cancer over the last 15 years. Aberrant MET activation due to overexpression, mutations, tumor-stroma paracrine loops, and cooperative/redundant signaling has been shown to play prominent roles in epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition, angiogenesis, and responses to anti-cancer therapeutic modalities. Accumulating preclinical and translational evidence highly supports the increasing interest of MET as a biomarker for lymph node and distant metastases, as well as a potential marker of stratification for responses to ionizing radiation. The relevance of MET as a therapeutic molecular target in head and neck cancer described in preclinical studies remains largely under-evaluated in clinical trials, and therefore inconclusive. Also in the context of anti-cancer targeted therapy, a large body of preclinical data suggests a central role for MET in treatment resistance towards multiple therapeutic modalities in malignancies of the head and neck region. These findings, as well as the potential use of combination therapies including MET inhibitors in these tumors, need to be further explored.

The influence of tibial morphology on the design of an anatomical tibial baseplate for TKA.

BACKGROUND Finding the right balance between tibial coverage and minimal implant overhang is an important factor in TKA. Another significant cause of failure is component malrotation. METHODS An average master shape of the proximal tibia at TKA resection level was calculated using fine slice computed tomographies of 117 cadaveric knees. To find out whether alternate implant contours would be necessary depending on the patient's body size, we established five subgroups to compare. CAD-Analysis was performed to simulate the overhang produced after ±4°/±7°/±10° rotation. RESULTS A master shape for the tibial resection cut (with a 5° posterior slope, 7 mm under lateral joint line) could be determined. Neither left vs. right knee joint, nor male vs. female nor the size subdivision appears to alter the calculated master shape significantly. The optimized shape allowing for ±4° of rotational freedom was found to be the best variant. CONCLUSIONS Valid methods have been obtained to design a two-dimensional average shape of the tibial plateau. The modifications described in this study might come in useful, when designing future implant designs. CLINICAL RELEVANCE An optimized fit at the tibial plateau and lower rates of component malrotation may result in better outcomes after TKA.

Association between Head Injury and Helmet Use in Alpine Skiers: Cohort Study from a Swiss Level I Trauma Center.

The association between helmet use during alpine skiing and incidence and severity of head injuries was analyzed. All patients admitted to a level 1 trauma center for traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) sustained from skiing accidents during the seasons 2000-2001 and 2010-2011 were eligible. Primary outcome was the association between helmet use and severity of TBI measured by Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), computed tomography (CT) results, and necessity of neurosurgical intervention. Of 1362 patients injured during alpine skiing, 245 (18%) sustained TBI and were included. TBI was fatal in 3%. Head injury was in 76% minor (Glasgow Coma Scale, 13-15), 6% moderate, and 14% severe. Number and percentage of TBI patients showed no significant trend over the investigated seasons. Forty-five percent of the 245 patients had pathological CT findings and 26% of these required neurosurgical intervention. Helmet use increased from 0% in 2000-2001 to 71% in 2010-2011 (p<0.001). The main analysis, comparing TBI in patients with or without a helmet, showed an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.44 (p=0.430) for suffering moderate-to-severe head injury in helmet users. Analyses comparing off-piste to on-slope skiers revealed a significantly increased OR among off-piste skiers of 7.62 (p=0.004) for sustaining a TBI requiring surgical intervention. Despite increases in helmet use, we found no decrease in severe TBI among alpine skiers. Logistic regression analysis showed no significant difference in TBI with regard to helmet use, but increased risk for off-piste skiers. The limited protection of helmets and dangers of skiing off-piste should be targeted by prevention programs.