Serial lactate and admission SOFA scores in trauma: an analysis of predictive value in 724 patients with and without traumatic brain injury

Objective Arterial lactate, base excess (BE), lactate clearance, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score have been shown to correlate with outcome in severely injured patients. The goal of the present study was to separately assess their predictive value in patients suffering from traumatic brain injury (TBI) as opposed to patients suffering from injuries not related to the brain. Materials and methods A total of 724 adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 16 were grouped into patients without TBI (non-TBI), patients with isolated TBI (isolated TBI), and patients with a combination of TBI and non-TBI injuries (combined injuries). The predictive value of the above parameters was then analyzed using both uni- and multivariate analyses. Results The mean age of the patients was 39 years (77 % males), with a mean ISS of 32 (range 16–75). Mortality ranged from 14 % (non-TBI) to 24 % (combined injuries). Admission and serial lactate/BE values were higher in non-survivors of all groups (all p < 0.01), but not in patients with isolated TBI. Admission SOFA scores were highest in non-survivors of all groups (p = 0.023); subsequently septic patients also showed elevated SOFA scores (p < 0.01), except those with isolated TBI. In this group, SOFA score was the only parameter which showed significant differences between survivors and non-survivors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed lactate to be the best overall predictor for increased mortality and further septic complications, irrespective of the leading injury. Conclusion Lactate showed the best performance in predicting sepsis or death in all trauma patients except those with isolated TBI, and the differences were greatest in patients with substantial bleeding. Following isolated TBI, SOFA score was the only parameter which could differentiate survivors from non-survivors on admission, although the SOFA score, too, was not an independent predictor of death following multivariate analysis.

Metformin and the risk of endometrial cancer: a case-control analysis

OBJECTIVE To explore the risk of endometrial cancer in relation to metformin and other antidiabetic drugs. METHODS We conducted a case-control analysis to explore the association between use of metformin and other antidiabetic drugs and the risk of endometrial cancer using the UK-based General Practice Research Database (GPRD). Cases were women with an incident diagnosis of endometrial cancer, and up to 6 controls per case were matched in age, sex, calendar time, general practice, and number of years of active history in the GPRD prior to the index date. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated and results were adjusted by multivariate logistic regression analyses for BMI, smoking, a recorded diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, and diabetes duration. RESULTS A total of 2554 cases with incident endometrial cancer and 15,324 matched controls were identified. Ever use of metformin compared to never use of metformin was not associated with an altered risk of endometrial cancer (adj. OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.63-1.18). Stratified by exposure duration, neither long-term (≥25 prescriptions) use of metformin (adj. OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.54-1.17), nor long-term use of sulfonylureas (adj. OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.65-1.44), thiazolidinediones (≥15 prescriptions; adj. OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.67-2.21), or insulin (adj. OR 1.05 (0.79-1.82) was associated with the risk of endometrial cancer. CONCLUSION Use of metformin and other antidiabetic drugs were not associated with an altered risk of endometrial cancer.

The Application of Comorbidity Indices to Predict Early Postoperative Outcomes After Laparoscopic Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass: A Nationwide Comparative Analysis of Over 70,000 Cases

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) often have substantial comorbidities, which must be taken into account to appropriately assess expected postoperative outcomes. The Charlson/Deyo and Elixhauser indices are widely used comorbidity measures, both of which also have revised algorithms based on enhanced ICD-9-CM coding. It is currently unclear which of the existing comorbidity measures best predicts early postoperative outcomes following LRYGB. METHODS: Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, patients 18 years or older undergoing LRYGB for obesity between 2001 and 2008 were identified. Comorbidities were assessed according to the original and enhanced Charlson/Deyo and Elixhauser indices. Using multivariate logistic regression, the following early postoperative outcomes were assessed: overall postoperative complications, length of hospital stay, and conversion to open surgery. Model performance for the four comorbidity indices was assessed and compared using C-statistics and the Akaike's information criterion (AIC). RESULTS: A total of 70,287 patients were included. Mean age was 43.1 years (SD, 10.8), 81.6 % were female and 60.3 % were White. Both the original and enhanced Elixhauser indices modestly outperformed the Charlson/Deyo in predicting the surgical outcomes. All four models had similar C-statistics, but the original Elixhauser index was associated with the smallest AIC for all of the surgical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The original Elixhauser index is the best predictor of early postoperative outcomes in our cohort of patients undergoing LRYGB. However, differences between the Charlson/Deyo and Elixhauser indices are modest, and each of these indices provides clinically relevant insight for predicting early postoperative outcomes in this high-risk patient population.

Prognostic implications of coronary calcification in patients with obstructive coronary artery disease treated by percutaneous coronary intervention: a patient-level pooled analysis of 7 contemporary stent trials

OBJECTIVE To investigate the long-term prognostic implications of coronary calcification in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for obstructive coronary artery disease. METHODS Patient-level data from 6296 patients enrolled in seven clinical drug-eluting stents trials were analysed to identify in angiographic images the presence of severe coronary calcification by an independent academic research organisation (Cardialysis, Rotterdam, The Netherlands). Clinical outcomes at 3-years follow-up including all-cause mortality, death-myocardial infarction (MI), and the composite end-point of all-cause death-MI-any revascularisation were compared between patients with and without severe calcification. RESULTS Severe calcification was detected in 20% of the studied population. Patients with severe lesion calcification were less likely to have undergone complete revascularisation (48% vs 55.6%, p<0.001) and had an increased mortality compared with those without severely calcified arteries (10.8% vs 4.4%, p<0.001). The event rate was also high in patients with severely calcified lesions for the combined end-point death-MI (22.9% vs 10.9%; p<0.001) and death-MI- any revascularisation (31.8% vs 22.4%; p<0.001). On multivariate Cox regression analysis, including the Syntax score, the presence of severe coronary calcification was an independent predictor of poor prognosis (HR: 1.33 95% CI 1.00 to 1.77, p=0.047 for death; 1.23, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.49, p=0.031 for death-MI, and 1.18, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.39, p=0.042 for death-MI- any revascularisation), but it was not associated with an increased risk of stent thrombosis. CONCLUSIONS Patients with severely calcified lesions have worse clinical outcomes compared to those without severe coronary calcification. Severe coronary calcification appears as an independent predictor of worse prognosis, and should be considered as a marker of advanced atherosclerosis.

Incidence of and risk factors for severe hypoglycaemia in treated type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in the UK - a nested case-control analysis

AIMS To assess incidence rates (IRs) of and identify risk factors for incident severe hypoglycaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes newly treated with antidiabetic drugs. METHODS Using the UK-based General Practice Research Database, we performed a retrospective cohort study between 1994 and 2011 and a nested case-control analysis. Ten controls from the population at risk were matched to each case with a recorded severe hypoglycaemia during follow-up on general practice, years of history in the database and calendar time. Using multivariate conditional logistic regression analyses, we adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS Of 130,761 patients with newly treated type 2 diabetes (mean age 61.7 ± 13.0 years), 690 (0.5%) had an incident episode of severe hypoglycaemia recorded [estimated IR 11.97 (95% confidence interval, CI, 11.11-12.90) per 10,000 person-years (PYs)]. The IR was markedly higher in insulin users [49.64 (95% CI, 44.08-55.89) per 10,000 PYs] than in patients not using insulin [8.03 (95% CI, 7.30-8.84) per 10,000 PYs]. Based on results of the nested case-control analysis increasing age [≥ 75 vs. 20-59 years; adjusted odds ratio (OR), 2.27; 95% CI, 1.65-3.12], cognitive impairment/dementia (adjusted OR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.37-2.91), renal failure (adjusted OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.04-1.71), current use of sulphonylureas (adjusted OR, 4.45; 95% CI, 3.53-5.60) and current insulin use (adjusted OR, 11.83; 95% CI, 9.00-15.54) were all associated with an increased risk of severe hypoglycaemia. CONCLUSIONS Severe hypoglycaemia was recorded in 12 cases per 10,000 PYs. Risk factors for severe hypoglycaemia included increasing age, renal failure, cognitive impairment/dementia, and current use of insulin or sulphonylureas.

Influencing factors on the length of stay in lumbar spine surgery: analysis of the German spine registry

INTRODUCTION Spinal disc herniation, lumbar spinal stenosis and spondylolisthesis are known to be leading causes of lumbar back pain. The cost of low back pain management and related operations are continuously increasing in the healthcare sector. There are many studies regarding complications after spine surgery but little is known about the factors predicting the length of stay in hospital. The purpose of this study was to identify these factors in lumbar spine surgery in order to adapt the postoperative treatment. MATERIAL AND METHODS The current study was carried out as a post hoc analysis on the basis of the German spine registry. Patients who underwent lumbar spine surgery by posterior surgical access and with posterior fusion and/or rigid stabilization, whereby procedures with dynamic stabilization were excluded. Patient characteristics were tested for association with length of stay (LOS) using bivariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS A total of 356 patients met the inclusion criteria. The average age of all patients was 64.6 years and the mean LOS was 11.9 ± 6.0 days with a range of 2-44 days. Independent factors that were influencing LOS were increased age at the time of surgery, higher body mass index, male gender, blood transfusion of 1-2 erythrocyte concentrates and the presence of surgical complications. CONCLUSION Identification of predictive factors for prolonged LOS may allow for estimation of patient hospitalization time and for optimization of postoperative care. In individual cases this may result of a reduction in the LOS.

Association between trends in clinical variables and outcome in intensive care patients with faecal peritonitis: analysis of the GenOSept cohort.

INTRODUCTION Patients admitted to intensive care following surgery for faecal peritonitis present particular challenges in terms of clinical management and risk assessment. Collaborating surgical and intensive care teams need shared perspectives on prognosis. We aimed to determine the relationship between dynamic assessment of trends in selected variables and outcomes. METHODS We analysed trends in physiological and laboratory variables during the first week of intensive care unit (ICU) stay in 977 patients at 102 centres across 16 European countries. The primary outcome was 6-month mortality. Secondary endpoints were ICU, hospital and 28-day mortality. For each trend, Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex, were performed for each endpoint. RESULTS Trends over the first 7 days of the ICU stay independently associated with 6-month mortality were worsening thrombocytopaenia (mortality: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01 to 1.03; P <0.001) and renal function (total daily urine output: HR =1.02; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.03; P <0.001; Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) renal subscore: HR = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.047), maximum bilirubin level (HR = 0.99; 95% CI, 0.99 to 0.99; P = 0.02) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) SOFA subscore (HR = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.98; P = 0.028). Changes in renal function (total daily urine output and renal component of the SOFA score), GCS component of the SOFA score, total SOFA score and worsening thrombocytopaenia were also independently associated with secondary outcomes (ICU, hospital and 28-day mortality). We detected the same pattern when we analysed trends on days 2, 3 and 5. Dynamic trends in all other measured laboratory and physiological variables, and in radiological findings, changes inrespiratory support, renal replacement therapy and inotrope and/or vasopressor requirements failed to be retained as independently associated with outcome in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS Only deterioration in renal function, thrombocytopaenia and SOFA score over the first 2, 3, 5 and 7 days of the ICU stay were consistently associated with mortality at all endpoints. These findings may help to inform clinical decision making in patients with this common cause of critical illness.

Cardiopulmonary Bypass has No Significant Impact on Survival in Patients Undergoing Nephrectomy and Level III-IV Inferior Vena Cava Thrombectomy. A Multi-Institutional Analysis.

PURPOSE The impact of cardiopulmonary bypass in level III-IV tumor thrombectomy on surgical and oncologic outcomes is unknown. We determine the impact of cardiopulmonary bypass on overall and cancer specific survival, as well as surgical complication rates and immediate outcomes in patients undergoing nephrectomy and level III-IV tumor thrombectomy with or without cardiopulmonary bypass. MATERIALS AND METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 362 patients with renal cell cancer and with level III or IV tumor thrombus from 1992 to 2012 at 22 U.S. and European centers. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare overall and cancer specific survival between patients with and without cardiopulmonary bypass. Perioperative mortality and complication rates were assessed using logistic regression analyses. RESULTS Median overall survival was 24.6 months in noncardiopulmonary bypass cases and 26.6 months in cardiopulmonary bypass cases. Overall survival and cancer specific survival did not differ significantly in both groups on univariate analysis or when adjusting for known risk factors. On multivariate analysis no significant differences were seen in hospital length of stay, Clavien 1-4 complication rate, intraoperative or 30-day mortality and cancer specific survival. Limitations include the retrospective nature of the study. CONCLUSIONS In our multi-institutional analysis the use of cardiopulmonary bypass did not significantly impact cancer specific survival or overall survival in patients undergoing nephrectomy and level III or IV tumor thrombectomy. Neither approach was independently associated with increased mortality on multivariate analysis. Greater surgical complications were not independently associated with the use of cardiopulmonary bypass.

New Algorithms for M-Estimation of Multivariate Scatter and Location

We present new algorithms for M-estimators of multivariate scatter and location and for symmetrized M-estimators of multivariate scatter. The new algorithms are considerably faster than currently used fixed-point and related algorithms. The main idea is to utilize a second order Taylor expansion of the target functional and to devise a partial Newton-Raphson procedure. In connection with symmetrized M-estimators we work with incomplete U-statistics to accelerate our procedures initially.

Analysis of Phenotypic Variation in Childhood Wheezing Disorders

Recurrent wheezing or asthma is a common problem in children that has increased considerably in prevalence in the past few decades. The causes and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and it is thought that a numb er of distinct diseases causing similar symptoms are involved. Due to the lack of a biologically founded classification system, children are classified according to their observed disease related features (symptoms, signs, measurements) into phenotypes. The objectives of this PhD project were a) to develop tools for analysing phenotypic variation of a disease, and b) to examine phenotypic variability of wheezing among children by applying these tools to existing epidemiological data. A combination of graphical methods (multivariate co rrespondence analysis) and statistical models (latent variables models) was used. In a first phase, a model for discrete variability (latent class model) was applied to data on symptoms and measurements from an epidemiological study to identify distinct phenotypes of wheezing. In a second phase, the modelling framework was expanded to include continuous variability (e.g. along a severity gradient) and combinations of discrete and continuo us variability (factor models and factor mixture models). The third phase focused on validating the methods using simulation studies. The main body of this thesis consists of 5 articles (3 published, 1 submitted and 1 to be submitted) including applications, methodological contributions and a review. The main findings and contributions were: 1) The application of a latent class model to epidemiological data (symptoms and physiological measurements) yielded plausible pheno types of wheezing with distinguishing characteristics that have previously been used as phenotype defining characteristics. 2) A method was proposed for including responses to conditional questions (e.g. questions on severity or triggers of wheezing are asked only to children with wheeze) in multivariate modelling.ii 3) A panel of clinicians was set up to agree on a plausible model for wheezing diseases. The model can be used to generate datasets for testing the modelling approach. 4) A critical review of methods for defining and validating phenotypes of wheeze in children was conducted. 5) The simulation studies showed that a parsimonious parameterisation of the models is required to identify the true underlying structure of the data. The developed approach can deal with some challenges of real-life cohort data such as variables of mixed mode (continuous and categorical), missing data and conditional questions. If carefully applied, the approach can be used to identify whether the underlying phenotypic variation is discrete (classes), continuous (factors) or a combination of these. These methods could help improve precision of research into causes and mechanisms and contribute to the development of a new classification of wheezing disorders in children and other diseases which are difficult to classify.

Detection of Malnutrition in Patients Undergoing Maintenance Haemodialysis: A Quantitative Data Analysis on 12 Parameters

Background Protein-energy-malnutrition (PEM) is common in people with end stage kidney disease (ESKD) undergoing maintenance haemodialysis (MHD) and correlates strongly with mortality. To this day, there is no gold standard for detecting PEM in patients on MHD. Aim of Study The aim of this study was to evaluate if Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002), handgrip strength measurement, mid-upper arm muscle area (MUAMA), triceps skin fold measurement (TSF), serum albumin, normalised protein catabolic rate (nPCR), Kt/V and eKt/V, dry body weight, body mass index (BMI), age and time since start on MHD are relevant for assessing PEM in patients on MHD. Methods The predictive value of the selected parameters on mortality and mortality or weight loss of more than 5% was assessed. Quantitative data analysis of the 12 parameters in the same patients on MHD in autumn 2009 (n = 64) and spring 2011 (n = 40) with paired statistical analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Results Paired data analysis showed significant reduction of dry body weight, BMI and nPCR. Kt/Vtot did not change, eKt/v and hand grip strength measurements were significantly higher in spring 2011. No changes were detected in TSF, serum albumin, NRS-2002 and MUAMA. Serum albumin was shown to be the only predictor of death and of the combined endpoint “death or weight loss of more than 5%”. Conclusion We now screen patients biannually for serum albumin, nPCR, Kt/V, handgrip measurement of the shunt-free arm, dry body weight, age and time since initiation of MHD.

Influence of prosthesis type and retention mechanism on complications with fixed implant-supported prostheses: a systematic review applying multivariate analyses

PURPOSE To identify the influence of fixed prosthesis type on biologic and technical complication rates in the context of screw versus cement retention. Furthermore, a multivariate analysis was conducted to determine which factors, when considered together, influence the complication and failure rates of fixed implant-supported prostheses. MATERIALS AND METHODS Electronic searches of MEDLINE (PubMed), EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were conducted. Selected inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to limit the search. Data were analyzed statistically with simple and multivariate random-effects Poisson regressions. RESULTS Seventy-three articles qualified for inclusion in the study. Screw-retained prostheses showed a tendency toward and significantly more technical complications than cemented prostheses with single crowns and fixed partial prostheses, respectively. Resin chipping and ceramic veneer chipping had high mean event rates, at 10.04 and 8.95 per 100 years, respectively, for full-arch screwed prostheses. For "all fixed prostheses" (prosthesis type not reported or not known), significantly fewer biologic and technical complications were seen with screw retention. Multivariate analysis revealed a significantly greater incidence of technical complications with cemented prostheses. Full-arch prostheses, cantilevered prostheses, and "all fixed prostheses" had significantly higher complication rates than single crowns. A significantly greater incidence of technical and biologic complications was seen with cemented prostheses. CONCLUSION Screw-retained fixed partial prostheses demonstrated a significantly higher rate of technical complications and screw-retained full-arch prostheses demonstrated a notably high rate of veneer chipping. When "all fixed prostheses" were considered, significantly higher rates of technical and biologic complications were seen for cement-retained prostheses. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis failed to show a significant difference between screw- and cement-retained prostheses with respect to the incidence of failure but demonstrated a higher rate of technical and biologic complications for cement-retained prostheses. The incidence of technical complications was more dependent upon prosthesis and retention type than prosthesis or abutment material.