51 resultados para Multiple priors and posteriors
Resumo:
The next generation neutrino observatory proposed by the LBNO collaboration will address fundamental questions in particle and astroparticle physics. The experiment consists of a far detector, in its first stage a 20 kt LAr double phase TPC and a magnetised iron calorimeter, situated at 2300 km from CERN and a near detector based on a highpressure argon gas TPC. The long baseline provides a unique opportunity to study neutrino flavour oscillations over their 1st and 2nd oscillation maxima exploring the L/E behaviour, and distinguishing effects arising from δCP and matter. In this paper we have reevaluated the physics potential of this setup for determining the mass hierarchy (MH) and discovering CP-violation (CPV), using a conventional neutrino beam from the CERN SPS with a power of 750 kW. We use conservative assumptions on the knowledge of oscillation parameter priors and systematic uncertainties. The impact of each systematic error and the precision of oscillation prior is shown. We demonstrate that the first stage of LBNO can determine unambiguously the MH to > 5δ C.L. over the whole phase space. We show that the statistical treatment of the experiment is of very high importance, resulting in the conclusion that LBNO has ~ 100% probability to determine the MH in at most 4-5 years of running. Since the knowledge of MH is indispensable to extract δCP from the data, the first LBNO phase can convincingly give evidence for CPV on the 3δ C.L. using today’s knowledge on oscillation parameters and realistic assumptions on the systematic uncertainties.
Resumo:
This article presents an empirical interdisciplinary study of an extensive participatory process that was carried out in 2004 in the recently established World Natural Heritage Site “Jungfrau–Aletsch– Bietschhorn” in the Swiss Alps. The study used qualitative and quantitative empirical methods of social science to address the question of success factors in establishing and concretizing a World Heritage Site. Current international scientific and policy debates agree that the most important success factors in defining pathways for nature conservation and protection are: linking development and conservation, involving multiple stakeholders, and applying participatory approaches. The results of the study indicate that linking development and conservation implies the need to extend the reach of negotiations beyond the area of conservation, and to develop both a regional perspective and a focus on sustainable regional development. In the process, regional and local stakeholders are less concerned with defining sustainability goals than elaborating strategies of sustainability, in particular defining the respective roles of the core sectors of society and economy. However, the study results also show that conflicting visions and perceptions of nature and landscape are important underlying currents in such negotiations. They differ significantly between various stakeholder categories and are an important cause of conflicts occurring at various stages of the participatory process.
Resumo:
Understanding the genetic background of invading species can be crucial information clarifying why they become invasive. Intraspecific genetic admixture among lineages separated in the native ranges may promote the rate and extent of an invasion by substantially increasing standing genetic variation. Here we examine the genetic relationships among threespine stickleback that recently colonized Switzerland. This invasion results from several distinct genetic lineages that colonized multiple locations and have since undergone range expansions, where they coexist and admix in parts of their range. Using 17 microsatellites genotyped for 634 individuals collected from 17 Swiss and two non-Swiss European sites, we reconstruct the invasion of stickleback and investigate the potential and extent of admixture and hybridization among the colonizing lineages from a population genetic perspective. Specifically we test for an increase in standing genetic variation in populations where multiple lineages coexist. We find strong evidence of massive hybridization early on, followed by what appears to be recent increased genetic isolation and the formation of several new genetically distinguishable populations, consistent with a hybrid ‘superswarm’. This massive hybridization and population formation event(s) occurred over approximately 140 years and likely fuelled the successful invasion of a diverse range of habitats. The implications are that multiple colonizations coupled with hybridization can lead to the formation of new stable genetic populations potentially kick-starting speciation and adaptive radiation over a very short time.
Resumo:
QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY The impact of assisted reproductive technology (ART) on Swiss demography was quantified. From 1993 to 2012 the number of deliveries, including multiples, generated by ART was compared with overall delivery numbers. Swiss experts in ART collaborated in a consensus to increase successful outcomes, to reduce the incidence of complications of ART and to validate recommendations through statistical review of available data. METHODS Data generated between 1993 and 2012 and published by the Federal Office of Statistics (BfS) were compared with the Swiss database on ART (FIVNAT-CH) as organised by the Swiss Society of Reproductive Medicine (SGRM). From these analyses a panel of Swiss experts in ART extracted recommendations to improve current practice, to prevent complications related to ART and to recommend changes in current Swiss legislation dealing with ART. RESULTS Since 1993 the age of women giving birth rose together with the number of women asking for ART. This demographic trend was reflected in a rise in the number of deliveries generated by ART (in 2012: 2.2%) and the proportion of multiple births (in 2012: 17.6%). The outcome of ART was most negatively influenced by the age of the treated patient. The number of retrieved oocytes decisively impacted the likelihood of delivery, the risk of multiple births and the incidence of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome. CONCLUSIONS Optimal ovarian stimulation should be designed for the retrieval of 10 to 15 oocytes per treatment. Swiss legislation should enable and stimulate a policy of elective single embryo transfer to avoid multiple births.
Resumo:
An accurate and efficient determination of the highly toxic Cr(VI) in solid materials is important to determine the total Cr(VI) inventory of contaminated sites and the Cr(VI) release potential from such sites into the environment. Most commonly, total Cr(VI) is extracted from solid materials following a hot alkaline extraction procedure (US EPA method 3060A) where a complete release of water-extractable and sparingly soluble Cr(VI) phase is achieved. This work presents an evaluation of matrix effects that may occur during the hot alkaline extraction and in the determination of the total Cr(VI) inventory of variably composed contaminated soils and industrial materials (cement, fly ash) and is compared to water-extractable Cr(VI) results. Method validation including multiple extractions and matrix spiking along with chemical and mineralogical characterization showed satisfying results for total Cr(VI) contents for most of the tested materials. However, unreliable results were obtained by applying method 3060A to anoxic soils due to the degradation of organic material and/or reactions with Fe2+-bearing mineral phases. In addition, in certain samples discrepant spike recoveries have to be also attributed to sample heterogeneity. Separation of possible extracted Cr(III) by applying cation-exchange cartridges prior to solution analysis further shows that under the hot alkaline extraction conditions only Cr(VI) is present in solution in measurable amounts, whereas Cr(III) gets precipitated as amorphous Cr(OH)3(am). It is concluded that prior to routine application of method 3060A to a new material type, spiking tests are recommended for the identification of matrix effects. In addition, the mass of extracted solid material should to be well adjusted to the heterogeneity of the Cr(VI) distribution in the material in question.
Resumo:
When a project is realized in a globalized environment, multiple stakeholders from different organizations work on the same system. Depending on the stakeholders and their organizations, various (possibly overlapping) concerns are raised in the development of the system. In this context a Domain Specific Language (DSL) supports the work of a group of stakeholders who are responsible for addressing a specific set of concerns. This chapter identifies the open challenges arising from the coordination of globalized domain-specific languages. We identify two types of coordination: technical coordination and social coordination. After presenting an overview of the current state of the art, we discuss first the open challenges arising from the composition of multiple DSLs, and then the open challenges associated to the collaboration in a globalized environment.