Time-Series Panel Analysis (TSPA): Multivariate Modeling of Temporal Associations in Psychotherapy Process.

Objective: Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. Method: TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. Results: TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy.

Institutions as key drivers of collective action in WUAs [Water User Associations] of Uzbekistan

This paper presents a multifactor approach for performance assessment of Water Users Associations (WUAs) in Uzbekistan in order to identify the drivers for improved and effi cient performance of WUAs. The study was carried out in the Fergana Valley where the WUAs were created along the South Fergana Main Canal during the last 10 years. The farmers and the employees of 20 WUAs were questioned about the WUAs’ activities and the quantitative and qualitative data were obtained. This became a base for the calculation of 36 indicators divided into 6 groups: Water supply, technical conditions, economic conditions, social and cultural conditions, organizational conditions and information conditions. All the indicators assessed with a differentiated point system adjusted for subjectivity of several of them give the total maximal result for the associations of 250 point. The WUAs of the Fergana Valley showed the score between 145 and 219 points, what refl ects a highly diverse level of the WUAs performance in the region. The analysis of the indicators revealed that the key points of the WUA’s success are the organizational and institutional conditions including the participatory factors and awareness of both the farmers and employees about the work of WUA. The research showed that the low performance of the WUAs is always explained by the low technical and economic conditions along with weak organization and information dissemination conditions. It is clear that it is complicated to improve technical and economic conditions immediately because they are cost-based and cost-induced. However, it is possible to improve the organizational conditions and to strengthen the institutional basis via formal and information institutions which will gradually lead to improvement of economic and technical conditions of WUAs. Farmers should be involved into the WUA Governance and into the process of making common decisions and solving common problems together via proper institutions. Their awareness can also be improved by leading additional trainings for increasing farmers’ agronomic and irrigation knowledge, teaching them water saving technologies and acquainting them with the use of water measuring equipment so it can bring reliable water supply, transparent budgeting and adequate as well as equitable water allocation to the water users.

Volitional processes and daily smoking: Examining inter- and intraindividual associations around a quit attempt

The Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) assumes that volitional processes are important for effective behavioral change. However, intraindividual associations have not yet been tested in the context of smoking cessation. This study examined the inter- and intraindividual associations between volitional HAPA variables and daily smoking before and after a quit attempt. Overall, 100 smokers completed daily surveys on mobile phones from 10 days before until 21 days after a self-set quit date, including self-efficacy, action planning, action control, and numbers of cigarettes smoked. Negative associations between volitional variables and daily numbers of cigarettes smoked emerged at the inter- and intraindividual level. Except for interindividual action planning, associations were stronger after the quit date than before the quit date. Self-efficacy, planning and action control were identified as critical inter- and intraindividual processes in smoking cessation, particularly after a self-set quit attempt when actual behavior change is performed.

Associations between the decrease in bovine clinical mastitis and changes in dairy farmers' attitude, knowledge, and behavior in the Netherlands.

The aim of this study was to associate changes in dairy farmers' self-reported attitude, knowledge, and behavior with the decrease in incidence rate of clinical mastitis (IRCM). Farmer-diagnosed clinical mastitis cases were obtained from two surveys conducted before (July 2004-June 2005) and at the end (2009) of a mastitis control program in the Netherlands. Information on farmers' attitude, knowledge, and behavior was also obtained by sending the farmers the same questionnaire during both surveys. Multivariable linear regression models identified that the herd level 2004 IRCM explained 28% of the variation in the decrease of IRCM. Changes in farmers' attitude and knowledge, and changes in farmers' behavior additionally explained 24% and 5%, respectively. These results suggest that the way management measures are executed may be at least as important as the fact that they are executed. No control group was available for this study because the intervention was applied at the national level. We therefore do not claim any causal relationships.

Associations of ambulatory blood pressure with urinary caffeine and caffeine metabolite excretions.

Intake of caffeinated beverages might be associated with reduced cardiovascular mortality possibly via the lowering of blood pressure. We estimated the association of ambulatory blood pressure with urinary caffeine and caffeine metabolites in a population-based sample. Families were randomly selected from the general population of Swiss cities. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring was conducted using validated devices. Urinary caffeine, paraxanthine, theophylline, and theobromine excretions were measured in 24 hours urine using ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. We used mixed models to explore the associations of urinary excretions with blood pressure although adjusting for major confounders. The 836 participants (48.9% men) included in this analysis had mean age of 47.8 and mean 24-hour systolic and diastolic blood pressure of 120.1 and 78.0 mm Hg. For each doubling of caffeine excretion, 24-hour and night-time systolic blood pressure decreased by 0.642 and 1.107 mm Hg (both P values <0.040). Similar inverse associations were observed for paraxanthine and theophylline. Adjusted night-time systolic blood pressure in the first (lowest), second, third, and fourth (highest) quartile of paraxanthine urinary excretions were 110.3, 107.3, 107.3, and 105.1 mm Hg, respectively (P trend <0.05). No associations of urinary excretions with diastolic blood pressure were generally found, and theobromine excretion was not associated with blood pressure. Anti-hypertensive therapy, diabetes mellitus, and alcohol consumption modify the association of caffeine urinary excretion with systolic blood pressure. Ambulatory systolic blood pressure was inversely associated with urinary excretions of caffeine and other caffeine metabolites. Our results are compatible with a potential protective effect of caffeine on blood pressure.

Associations between mood, anxiety or substance use disorders and inflammatory markers after adjustment for multiple covariates in a population-based study.

Inflammation is one possible mechanism underlying the associations between mental disorders and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, studies on mental disorders and inflammation have yielded inconsistent results and the majority did not adjust for potential confounding factors. We examined the associations of several pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α) and high sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) with lifetime and current mood, anxiety and substance use disorders (SUD), while adjusting for multiple covariates. The sample included 3719 subjects, randomly selected from the general population, who underwent thorough somatic and psychiatric evaluations. Psychiatric diagnoses were made with a semi-structured interview. Major depressive disorder was subtyped into "atypical", "melancholic", "combined atypical-melancholic" and "unspecified". Associations between inflammatory markers and psychiatric diagnoses were assessed using multiple linear and logistic regression models. Lifetime bipolar disorders and atypical depression were associated with increased levels of hsCRP, but not after multivariate adjustment. After multivariate adjustment, SUD remained associated with increased hsCRP levels in men (β = 0.13 (95% CI: 0.03,0.23)) but not in women. After multivariate adjustment, lifetime combined and unspecified depression were associated with decreased levels of IL-6 (β = -0.27 (-0.51,-0.02); β = -0.19 (-0.34,-0.05), respectively) and TNF-α (β = -0.16 (-0.30,-0.01); β = -0.10 (-0.19,-0.02), respectively), whereas current combined and unspecified depression were associated with decreased levels of hsCRP (β = -0.20 (-0.39,-0.02); β = -0.12 (-0.24,-0.01), respectively). Our data suggest that the significant associations between increased hsCRP levels and mood disorders are mainly attributable to the effects of comorbid disorders, medication as well as behavioral and physical CVRFs.

Grassland management intensification weakens the associations among the diversities of multiple plant and animal taxa

Land-use intensification is a key driver of biodiversity change. However, little is known about how it alters relationships between the diversities of different taxonomic groups, which are often correlated due to shared environmental drivers and trophic interactions. Using data from 150 grassland sites, we examined how land-use intensification (increased fertilization, higher livestock densities, and increased mowing frequency) altered correlations between the species richness of 15 plant, invertebrate, and vertebrate taxa. We found that 54% of pairwise correlations between taxonomic groups were significant and positive among all grasslands, while only one was negative. Higher land-use intensity substantially weakened these correlations (35% decrease in r and 43% fewer significant pairwise correlations at high intensity), a pattern which may emerge as a result of biodiversity declines and the breakdown of specialized relationships in these conditions. Nevertheless, some groups (Coleoptera, Heteroptera, Hymenoptera and Orthoptera) were consistently correlated with multidiversity, an aggregate measure of total biodiversity comprised of the standardized diversities of multiple taxa, at both high and low land-use intensity. The form of intensification was also important; increased fertilization and mowing frequency typically weakened plant–plant and plant–primary consumer correlations, whereas grazing intensification did not. This may reflect decreased habitat heterogeneity under mowing and fertilization and increased habitat heterogeneity under grazing. While these results urge caution in using certain taxonomic groups to monitor impacts of agricultural management on biodiversity, they also suggest that the diversities of some groups are reasonably robust indicators of total biodiversity across a range of conditions. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/10.1890/14-1307.1

Longitudinal associations between causal sexual relationships and stressful life events in emerging adults

Findings on the consequences of casual sexual relationships (CSR) are inconsistent and range from positive to negative outcomes. The longitudinal association between stressful live events and CSR was investigated in a random sample of 2844 Swiss emerging adults. Cross-lagged panel models with baseline, two- and five-year follow-up data showed that life events predicted more subsequent CSR across emerging adulthood. In contrast, CSR predicted life events only from the first to the second wave. Results suggest that the link between stressful life events and CSR was mainly explained by romantic breakups as stressful life event. Environment-related life events were not substantially associated with casual sexual relationships. Thus, engaging in CSR did not seem to be a general emotion-focused coping strategy in the context of life events nor can the engagement in casual sex be seen as a result of stressful life events affecting general self-regulation.

The functional significance of EEG microstates-Associations with modalities of thinking

The momentary, global functional state of the brain is reflected by its electric field configuration. Cluster analytical approaches consistently extracted four head-surface brain electric field configurations that optimally explain the variance of their changes across time in spontaneous EEG recordings. These four configurations are referred to as EEG microstate classes A, B, C, and D and have been associated with verbal/phonological, visual, attention reorientation, and subjective interoceptive-autonomic processing, respectively. The present study tested these associations via an intra-individual and inter-individual analysis approach. The intra-individual approach tested the effect of task-induced increased modality-specific processing on EEG microstate parameters. The inter-individual approach tested the effect of personal modality-specific parameters on EEG microstate parameters. We obtained multichannel EEG from 61 healthy, right-handed, male students during four eyes-closed conditions: object-visualization, spatial-visualization, verbalization (6 runs each), and resting (7 runs). After each run, we assessed participants' degrees of object-visual, spatial-visual, and verbal thinking using subjective reports. Before and after the recording, we assessed modality-specific cognitive abilities and styles using nine cognitive tests and two questionnaires. The EEG of all participants, conditions, and runs was clustered into four classes of EEG microstates (A, B, C, and D). RMANOVAs, ANOVAs and post-hoc paired t-tests compared microstate parameters between conditions. TANOVAs compared microstate class topographies between conditions. Differences were localized using eLORETA. Pearson correlations assessed interrelationships between personal modality-specific parameters and EEG microstate parameters during no-task resting. As hypothesized, verbal as opposed to visual conditions consistently affected the duration, occurrence, and coverage of microstate classes A and B. Contrary to associations suggested by previous reports, parameters were increased for class A during visualization, and class B during verbalization. In line with previous reports, microstate D parameters were increased during no-task resting compared to the three internal, goal-directed tasks. Topographic differences between conditions concerned particular sub-regions of components of the metabolic default mode network. Modality-specific personal parameters did not consistently correlate with microstate parameters except verbal cognitive style which correlated negatively with microstate class A duration and positively with class C occurrence. This is the first study that aimed to induce EEG microstate class parameter changes based on their hypothesized functional significance. Beyond, the associations of microstate classes A and B with visual and verbal processing, respectively and microstate class D with interoceptive-autonomic processing, our results suggest that a finely-tuned interplay between all four EEG microstate classes is necessary for the continuous formation of visual and verbal thoughts, as well as interoceptive-autonomic processing. Our results point to the possibility that the EEG microstate classes may represent the head-surface measured activity of intra-cortical sources primarily exhibiting inhibitory functions. However, additional studies are needed to verify and elaborate on this hypothesis.