Associating optical measurements and estimating orbits of geocentric objects through population-based meta-heuristic methods

Currently several thousands of objects are being tracked in the MEO and GEO regions through optical means. The problem faced in this framework is that of Multiple Target Tracking (MTT). In this context both, the correct associations among the observations and the orbits of the objects have to be determined. The complexity of the MTT problem is defined by its dimension S. The number S corresponds to the number of fences involved in the problem. Each fence consists of a set of observations where each observation belongs to a different object. The S ≥ 3 MTT problem is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. There are two general ways to solve this. One way is to seek the optimum solution, this can be achieved by applying a branch-and- bound algorithm. When using these algorithms the problem has to be greatly simplified to keep the computational cost at a reasonable level. Another option is to approximate the solution by using meta-heuristic methods. These methods aim to efficiently explore the different possible combinations so that a reasonable result can be obtained with a reasonable computational effort. To this end several population-based meta-heuristic methods are implemented and tested on simulated optical measurements. With the advent of improved sensors and a heightened interest in the problem of space debris, it is expected that the number of tracked objects will grow by an order of magnitude in the near future. This research aims to provide a method that can treat the correlation and orbit determination problems simultaneously, and is able to efficiently process large data sets with minimal manual intervention.

A covariance analysis to optimize the optical follow-up strategies

The Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) is conducting several search campaigns for space debris using optical sensors. The debris objects are discovered during systematic survey observations. In general, the result of a discovery consists in only a short observation arc, or tracklet, which is used to perform a first orbit determination in order to be able to observe t he object again in subsequent follow-up observations. The additional observations are used in the orbit improvement process to obtain accurate orbits to be included in a catalogue. In order to obtain the most accurate orbit within the time available it is necessary to optimize the follow-up observations strategy. In this paper an in‐depth study, using simulations and covariance analysis, is performed to identify the optimal sequence of follow-up observations to obtain the most accurate orbit propagation to be used for the space debris catalogue maintenance. The main factors that determine the accuracy of the results of an orbit determination/improvement process are: tracklet length, number of observations, type of orbit, astrometric error of the measurements, time interval between tracklets, and the relative position of the object along its orbit with respect to the observing station. The main aim of the covariance analysis is to optimize the follow-up strategy as a function of the object-observer geometry, the interval between follow-up observations and the shape of the orbit. This an alysis can be applied to every orbital regime but particular attention was dedicated to geostationary, Molniya, and geostationary transfer orbits. Finally the case with more than two follow-up observations and the influence of a second observing station are also analyzed.

Extraction of spin periods of space debris from optical light curves

The population of space debris increased drastically during the last years. These objects have become a great threat for active satellites. Because the relative velocities between space debris and satellites are high, space debris objects may destroy active satellites through collisions. Furthermore, collisions involving massive objects produce large number of fragments leading to significant growth of the space debris population. The long term evolution of the debris population is essentially driven by so-called catastrophic collisions. An effective remediation measure in order to stabilize the population in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is therefore the removal of large, massive space debris. To remove these objects, not only precise orbits, but also more detailed information about their attitude states will be required. One important property of an object targeted for removal is its spin period, spin axis orientation and their change over time. Rotating objects will produce periodic brightness variations with frequencies which are related to the spin periods. Such a brightness variation over time is called a light curve. Collecting, but also processing light curves is challenging due to several reasons. Light curves may be undersampled, low frequency components due to phase angle and atmospheric extinction changes may be present, and beat frequencies may occur when the rotation period is close to a multiple of the sampling period. Depending on the method which is used to extract the frequencies, also method-specific properties have to be taken into account. The astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) light curve database will be introduced, which contains more than 1,300 light curves acquired over more than seven years. We will discuss properties and reliability of different time series analysis methods tested and currently used by AIUB for the light curve processing. Extracted frequencies and reconstructed phases for some interesting targets, e.g. GLONASS satellites, for which also SLR data were available for the period confirmation, will be presented. Finally we will present the reconstructed phase and its evolution over time of a High-Area-to-Mass-Ratio (HAMR) object, which AIUB observed for several years.

Services PTAs: Lessons from Practice

Presentation given by Pierre Sauvé at the international conference on the political economy of liberalising trade in services at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem

Legal Framework for Cross-Regional Networks: The Case of Services and Migration

Paper prepared by Marion Panizzon and Charlotte Sieber-Gasser for the International Conference on the Political Economy of Liberalising Trade in Services, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 14-15 June 2010 Recent literature has shed light on the economic potential of cross-border networks. These networks, consisting of expatriates and their acquaintances from abroad and at home, provide the basis for the creation of cross-border value added chains and therewith the means for turning brain drain into brain circulation. Both aspects are potentially valuable for economic growth in the developing world. Unilateral co-development policies operating through co-funding of expatriate business ventures, but also bilateral agreements liberalising circular migration for a limited set of per-sons testify to the increasing awareness of governments about the potential, which expatriate networks hold for economic growth in developing countries. Whereas such punctual efforts are valuable, viewed from a long term perspective, these top-down, government mandated Diaspora stimulation programs, will not replace, this paper argues, the market-driven liberalisation of infrastructure and other services in developing countries. Nor will they carry, in the case of circular labour migration, the political momentum to liberalise labour market admission for those non-nationals, who will eventually emerge as the future transnational entrepreneurs. It will take a combination of mode 4 and infrastructure services openings-cum regulation for countries at both sides of the spectrum to provide the basis and precondition for transnational business and entrepreneurial networks to emerge and translate into cross-border, value added production chains. Two key issues are of particular relevance in this context: (i) the services sector, especially in infrastructure, tends to suffer from inefficiencies, particularly in developing countries, and (ii) labour migration, a highly complex issue, still faces disproportionately rigid barriers despite well-documented global welfare gains. Both are hindrances for emerging markets to fully take advantage of the potential of these cross-border networks. Adapting the legal framework for enhancing the regulatory and institutional frameworks for services trade, especially in infrastructure services sectors (ISS) and labour migration could provide the incentives necessary for brain circulation and strengthen cross-border value added chains by lowering transaction costs. This paper analyses the shortfalls of the global legal framework – the shallow status quo of GATS commitments in ISS and mode 4 particular – in relation to stimulating brain circulation and the creation of cross-border value added chains in emerging markets. It highlights the necessity of adapting the legal framework, both on the global and the regional level, to stimulate broader and wider market access in the four key ISS sectors (telecommunications, transport, professional and financial services) in developing countries, as domestic supply capacity, global competitiveness and economic diversification in ISS sectors are necessary for mobilising expatriate re-turns, both physical and virtual. The paper argues that industrialised, labour receiving countries need to offer mode 4 market access to wider categories of persons, especially to students, graduate trainees and young professionals from abroad. Further-more, free trade in semi-finished products and mode 4 market access are crucial for the creation of cross-border value added chains across the developing world. Finally, the paper discusses on the basis of a case study on Jordan why the key features of trade agreements, which promote circular migration and the creation of cross-border value added chains, consist of trade liberalisation in services and liberal migration policies.