60 resultados para Herr, Matt
Resumo:
Ocean acidification has emerged over the last two decades as one of the largest threats to marine organisms and ecosystems. However, most research efforts on ocean acidification have so far neglected management and related policy issues to focus instead on understanding its ecological and biogeochemical implications. This shortfall is addressed here with a systematic, international and critical review of management and policy options. In particular, we investigate the assumption that fighting acidification is mainly, but not only, about reducing CO2 emissions, and explore the leeway that this emerging problem may open in old environmental issues. We review nine types of management responses, initially grouped under four categories: preventing ocean acidification; strengthening ecosystem resilience; adapting human activities; and repairing damages. Connecting and comparing options leads to classifying them, in a qualitative way, according to their potential and feasibility. While reducing CO2 emissions is confirmed as the key action that must be taken against acidification, some of the other options appear to have the potential to buy time, e.g. by relieving the pressure of other stressors, and help marine life face unavoidable acidification. Although the existing legal basis to take action shows few gaps, policy challenges are significant: tackling them will mean succeeding in various areas of environmental management where we failed to a large extent so far.
Resumo:
The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data–model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data–model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches.
Resumo:
Ongoing changes in disturbance regimes are predicted to cause acute changes in ecosystem structure and function in the coming decades, but many aspects of these predictions are uncertain. A key challenge is to improve the predictability of postdisturbance biogeochemical trajectories at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem ecologists and paleoecologists have generated complementary data sets about disturbance (type, severity, frequency) and ecosystem response (net primary productivity, nutrient cycling) spanning decadal to millennial timescales. Here, we take the first steps toward a full integration of these data sets by reviewing how disturbances are reconstructed using dendrochronological and sedimentary archives and by summarizing the conceptual frameworks for carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic responses to disturbances. Key research priorities include further development of paleoecological techniques that reconstruct both disturbances and terrestrial ecosystem dynamics. In addition, mechanistic detail from disturbance experiments, long-term observations, and chronosequences can help increase the understanding of ecosystem resilience.
Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography
Resumo:
Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.
Resumo:
This paper is the maritime and sub–Antarctic contribution to the Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research (SCAR) Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS) community Antarctic Ice Sheet reconstruction. The overarching aim for all sectors of Antarctica was to reconstruct the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice sheet extent and thickness, and map the subsequent deglaciation in a series of 5000 year time slices. However, our review of the literature found surprisingly few high quality chronological constraints on changing glacier extents on these timescales in the maritime and sub–Antarctic sector. Therefore, in this paper we focus on an assessment of the terrestrial and offshore evidence for the LGM ice extent, establishing minimum ages for the onset of deglaciation, and separating evidence of deglaciation from LGM limits from those associated with later Holocene glacier fluctuations. Evidence included geomorphological descriptions of glacial landscapes, radiocarbon dated basal peat and lake sediment deposits, cosmogenic isotope ages of glacial features and molecular biological data. We propose a classification of the glacial history of the maritime and sub–Antarctic islands based on this assembled evidence. These include: (Type I) islands which accumulated little or no LGM ice; (Type II) islands with a limited LGM ice extent but evidence of extensive earlier continental shelf glaciations; (Type III) seamounts and volcanoes unlikely to have accumulated significant LGM ice cover; (Type IV) islands on shallow shelves with both terrestrial and submarine evidence of LGM (and/or earlier) ice expansion; (Type V) Islands north of the Antarctic Polar Front with terrestrial evidence of LGM ice expansion; and (Type VI) islands with no data. Finally, we review the climatological and geomorphological settings that separate the glaciological history of the islands within this classification scheme.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) using extracorporeal circulation (ECC) is still the gold standard. However, alternative techniques have been developed to avoid ECC and its potential adverse effects. These encompass minimal extracorporeal circulation (MECC) or off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB). However, the prevailing potential benefits when comparing MECC and OPCABG are not yet clearly established. METHODS In this retrospective study we investigated the potential benefits of MECC and OPCABG in 697 patients undergoing CABG. Of these, 555 patients had been operated with MECC and 142 off-pump. The primary endpoint was Troponin T level as an indicator for myocardial damage. RESULTS Study groups were not significantly different in general. However, patients undergoing OPCABG were significantly older (65.01 years ± 9.5 vs. 69.39 years ± 9.5; p value <0.001) with a higher Logistic EuroSCORE I (4.92% ± 6.5 vs. 5.88% ± 6.8; p value = 0.017). Operating off pump significantly reduced the need for intra-operative blood products (0.7% vs. 8.6%; p-value <0.001) and the length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) (2.04 days ± 2.63 vs. 2.76 days ± 2.79; p value <0.001). Regarding other blood values a significant difference could not be found in the adjusted calculations. The combined secondary endpoint, major cardiac or cerebrovascular events (MACCE), was equal in both groups as well. CONCLUSIONS Coronary artery bypass grafting using MECC or OPCABG are two comparable techniques with advantages for OPCABG regarding the reduced need for intra-operative blood products and shorter length of stay in the ICU. However serological values and combined endpoint MACCE did not differ significantly in both groups.
Resumo:
In chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) medical progress is driven by clinical studies with relapse-free survival (RFS) as the primary endpoint. The randomized EBMT-Intergroup trial compared high-dose therapy and autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) to observation and demonstrated a substantial improvement of RFS without showing improved overall survival for the transplant arm. Here we report quality of life (QoL) information of the first 3 years following randomization from that study. The main objective was to assess the impact of treatment on QoL over time. Two secondary analyses were performed to further investigate the impact of ASCT and relapse on QoL. In the primary analysis, we demonstrate an adverse impact of ASCT on QoL which was largest at 4 months and continued throughout the first year after randomization. Further, we demonstrated a sustained adverse impact of relapse on QoL which worsened over time. Despite better disease control by ASCT the side effects thus turned the net effect towards inferior QoL in the first year and comparable QoL in the following 2 years after randomization. This study emphasizes the importance of information concerning QoL impacts when patients are counseled about treatments aimed at improving RFS in the absence of a survival benefit.
Resumo:
A recent stream of organizational research has used the term serious play to describe situations in which people engage in playful behaviors deliberately with the intention to achieve serious, work-related objectives. In this article, the authors reflect on the ambiguity of this term, and reframe serious play as a practice characterized by the paradox of intentionality (when actors engage deliberately in a fun, intrinsically motivating activity as a means to achieve a serious, extrinsically motivated work objective). This reframing not only extends the explanatory power of the concept of serious play but also helps bridge the concerns of scholars and practitioners: first, by enabling us to understand a variety of activities in organizations as serious play, which can help practitioners address specific organizational challenges; second, by recognizing the potential for emergent serious play, and the creation of the conditions to foster this emergence; third, by pointing toward specific, individual or group-level outcomes associated with the practice; and finally, by uncovering its ethical dimensions and encouraging the understanding of the role of serious play on ethical decision making.
Resumo:
Les chercheurs s'efforcent d'élaborer une théorie de la création stratégique. Nous pensons que la difficulté pourrait être réduite en dotant ce domaine d'étude d'une notion d'intentionnalité qui nous permettrait de reconnaître l'émergence du changement. Nous présentons ici le jeu sérieux comme cadre descriptif pour les activités grâce auxquelles les conditions de la possibilité de l'émergence peuvent être créées intentionnellement. Dans ce sens, le but de ce chapitre est d'envisager la création stratégique comme une sorte de jeu sérieux.
Resumo:
PURPOSE: To describe and follow cotton wool spots (CWS) in branch retinal vein occlusion (BRVO) using multimodal imaging. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study including 24 patients with new-onset BRVO, CWS were described and analyzed in color fundus photography (CF), spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT), infrared (IR) and fluorescein angiography (FA) every 3 months for 3 years. The CWS area on SD-OCT and CF was evaluated using OCT-Tool-Kit software: CWS were marked in each single OCT B-scan and the software calculated the area by interpolation. RESULTS: 29 central CWS lesions were found. 100% of these CWS were visible on SD-OCT, 100% on FA and 86.2% on IR imaging, but only 65.5% on CF imaging. CWS were visible for 12.4 ± 7.5 months on SD-OCT, for 4.4 ± 3 months and 4.3 ± 3.4 months on CF and on IR, respectively, and for 17.5 ± 7.1 months on FA. The evaluated CWS area on SD-OCT was larger than on CF (0.26 ± 0.17 mm(2) vs. 0.13 ± 0.1 mm(2), p < 0.0001). The CWS area on SD-OCT and surrounding pathology such as intraretinal cysts, avascular zones and intraretinal hemorrhage were predictive for how long CWS remained visible (r(2) = 0.497, p < 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The lifetime and presentation of CWS in BRVO seem comparable to other diseases. SD-OCT shows a higher sensitivity for detecting CWS compared to CF. The duration of visibility of CWS varies among different image modalities and depends on the surrounding pathology and the CWS size.
Resumo:
PURPOSE The purpose of this study was to classify and detect intraretinal hemorrhage (IRH) in spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). METHODS Initially the presentation of IRH in BRVO-patients in SD-OCT was described by one reader comparing color-fundus (CF) and SD-OCT using dedicated software. Based on these established characteristics, the presence and the severity of IRH in SD-OCT and CF were assessed by two other masked readers and the inter-device and the inter-observer agreement were evaluated. Further the area of IRH was compared. RESULTS About 895 single B-scans of 24 eyes were analyzed. About 61% of SD-OCT scans and 46% of the CF-images were graded for the presence of IRH (concordance: 73%, inter-device agreement: k = 0.5). However, subdivided into previously established severity levels of dense (CF: 21.3% versus SD-OCT: 34.7%, k = 0.2), flame-like (CF: 15.5% versus SD-OCT: 45.5%, k = 0.3), and dot-like (CF: 32% versus SD-OCT: 24.4%, k = 0.2) IRH, the inter-device agreement was weak. The inter-observer agreement was strong with k = 0.9 for SD-OCT and k = 0.8 for CF. The mean area of IRH detected on SD-OCT was significantly greater than on CF (SD-OCT: 11.5 ± 4.3 mm(2) versus CF: 8.1 ± 5.5 mm(2), p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS IRH seems to be detectable on SD-OCT; however, the previously established severity grading agreed weakly with that assessed by CF.