Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.

The Hidden World of Multilateralism? Treaty Commitments of Newly Democratized States in Europe

Why do new EU democracies engage in multilateralism? The dominant explanation proposes that new democracies use international treaties to lock in domestic reforms. This article offers a novel explanation as to why new EU democracies participate in multilateral treaties. We argue that ratifying a treaty serves three external signaling purposes (addressing recognition concerns; increasing strategic autonomy, and pleasing the EU). We test our argument through a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods. First, we apply event history analysis. Drawing on a new ratification data set comprising 76 multilateral treaties, we illustrate the prominent role of new EU democracies in multilateralism as compared to other new democracies. Second, to assess the importance of external signaling in the decision to ratify multilateral treaties, we examine parliamentary ratification debates in selected Central and Eastern European countries. Third, we compare parliamentary discussions across European and non-European new democracies to demonstrate the different motives driving their approaches toward multilateralism.

Responses to rapid warming at Termination 1a at Gerzensee (Central Europe): Primary succession, albedo, soils, lake development, and ecological interactions

The transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling around 14,685 cal yr BP was a period of extremely rapid climatic warming. From a single core of lake marl taken at Gerzensee (Switzerland) we studied the transition in stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon on bulk sediment and charophyte remains, as well as on monospecific samples of ostracods, after Pisidium a; in addition pollen, chironomids, and Cladocera were analyzed. The δ18O record serves as an estimate of mean air temperature, and by correlation to the one from NGRIP in Greenland it provides a timescale. The timing of responses: The statistically significant zone boundaries of the biostratigraphies are telescoped at the rapid increase of about 3‰ in δ18O at the onset of Bølling. Biotic responses may have occurred within sampling resolution (8 to 16 years), although younger zone boundaries are less synchronous. Gradual and longer-lasting responses include complex processes such as primary or secular succession. During the late-glacial interstadial of Bølling and Allerød, two stronger and two weaker cool phases were found. Biological processes involved in the responses occurred on levels of individuals (e.g. pollen productivity), of populations (increases or decreases, immigration, or extinction), and on the ecosystem level (species interactions such as facilitation or competition). Abiotic and biotic interactions include pedogenesis, nitrogen-fixation, nutrient cycling, catchment hydrology, water chemistry of the lake and albedo (controlled by the transition from tundra to forest). For the Swiss Plateau this major change in vegetation induced a change in the mammal fauna, which in turn led to changes in the tool-making by Paleolithic people.

Coupling of eastern and western subpolar North Atlantic: salt transport in the Irminger Current

Salt transport in the Irminger Current and thus the coupling between eastern and western subpolar North Atlantic plays an important role for climate variability across a wide range of time scales. High-resolution ocean modeling and observations indicate that 5 salinities in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic decrease with enhanced circulation of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG). This has led to the perception that a stronger SPG also transports less salt westward. In this study, we analyze a regional ocean model and a comprehensive global coupled climate model, and show that a stronger SPG transports more salt in the Irminger Current irrespective of lower salinities in its 10 source region. The additional salt converges in the Labrador Sea and the Irminger Basin by eddy transports, increases surface salinity in the western SPG, and favors more intense deep convection. This is part of a positive feedback mechanism with potentially large implications for climate variability and predictability.

A 170 year spring phenology index of plants in eastern China

Extending phenological records into the past is essential for the understanding of past ecological change and evaluating the effects of climate change on ecosystems. A growing body of historical phenological information is now available for Europe, North America, and Asia. In East Asia, long-term phenological series are still relatively scarce. This study extracted plant phenological observations from old diaries in the period 1834–1962. A spring phenology index (SPI) for the modern period (1963–2009) was defined as the mean flowering time of three shrubs (first flowering of Amygdalus davidiana and Cercis chinensis, 50% of full flowering of Paeonia suffruticosa) according to the data availability. Applying calibrated transfer functions from the modern period to the historical data, we reconstructed a continuous SPI time series across eastern China from 1834 to 2009. In the recent 30 years, the SPI is 2.1–6.3 days earlier than during any other consecutive 30 year period before 1970. A moving linear trend analysis shows that the advancing trend of SPI over the past three decades reaches upward of 4.1 d/decade, which exceeds all previously observed trends in the past 30 year period. In addition, the SPI series correlates significantly with spring (February to April) temperatures in the study area, with an increase in spring temperature of 1°C inducing an earlier SPI by 3.1 days. These shifts of SPI provide important information regarding regional vegetation-climate relationships, and they are helpful to assess long term of climate change impacts on biophysical systems and biodiversity.

Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from −1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.

210Pb dating of the Miaoergou ice core from the eastern Tien Shan, China

In 2005, two ice cores with lengths of 58.7 and 57.6 m respectively to bedrock were recovered from the Miaoergou flat-topped glacier (43 degrees 03 ' 19 '' N, 94 degrees 19 ' 21 '' E; 4512 m a.s.l.), eastern Tien Shan. Pb-210 dating of one of the ice cores (57.6 m) was performed, and an age of AD 1851 +/- 6 at a depth of 35.2 m w.e. was determined. For the period AD 1851-2005, a mean annual net accumulation of 229 +/- 7 mm w.e. a(-1) was calculated. At the nearby oasis city of Hami (similar to 80 km from the Miaoergou flat-topped glacier) the annual precipitation rate is 38 mm w.e. a(-1), hence glacial meltwater is a major water supply for local residents. The surface activity concentration of Pb-210(ex) was found to be similar to 400 mBq kg(-1), which is higher than observed at other continental sites such as Belukha, Russia, and Tsambagarav, Mongolia, which have surface activity concentrations of 280 mBq kg(-1). The Pb-210 dating agrees well with the chronological sequence deduced from the annual-layer counting resulting from the seasonalities of delta O-18 and trace metals for the period AD 1953-2005, and beta-activity horizons resulting from atmospheric nuclear testing during the period AD 1962-63. We conclude that Pb-210 analysis is a suitable method for obtaining a continuous dating of the Miaoergou ice core for similar to 160 years, which can also be applied to other ice cores recovered from the mountains of western China.

Spring temperature variability and eutrophication history inferred from sedimentary pigments in the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie, north-eastern Poland, AD 1907–2008

Varved lake sediments are excellent natural archives providing quantitative insights into climatic and environmental changes at very high resolution and chronological accuracy. However, due to the multitude of responses within lake ecosystems it is often difficult to understand how climate variability interacts with other environmental pressures such as eutrophication, and to attribute observed changes to specific causes. This is particularly challenging during the past 100 years when multiple strong trends are superposed. Here we present a high-resolution multi-proxy record of sedimentary pigments and other biogeochemical data from the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie (Masurian Lake District, north-eastern Poland, 54°N–22°E, 120 m a.s.l.) spanning AD 1907 to 2008. Lake Żabińskie exhibits biogeochemical varves with highly organic late summer and winter layers separated by white layers of endogenous calcite precipitated in early summer. The aim of our study is to investigate whether climate-driven changes and anthropogenic changes can be separated in a multi-proxy sediment data set, and to explore which sediment proxies are potentially suitable for long quantitative climate reconstructions. We also test if convoluted analytical techniques (e.g. HPLC) can be substituted by rapid scanning techniques (visible reflectance spectroscopy VIS-RS; 380–730 nm). We used principal component analysis and cluster analysis to show that the recent eutrophication of Lake Żabińskie can be discriminated from climate-driven changes for the period AD 1907–2008. The eutrophication signal (PC1 = 46.4%; TOC, TN, TS, Phe-b, high TC/CD ratios total carotenoids/chlorophyll-a derivatives) is mainly expressed as increasing aquatic primary production, increasing hypolimnetic anoxia and a change in the algal community from green algae to blue-green algae. The proxies diagnostic for eutrophication show a smooth positive trend between 1907 and ca 1980 followed by a very rapid increase from ca. 1980 ± 2 onwards. We demonstrate that PC2 (24.4%, Chl-a-related pigments) is not affected by the eutrophication signal, but instead is sensitive to spring (MAM) temperature (r = 0.63, pcorr < 0.05, RMSEP = 0.56 °C; 5-yr filtered). Limnological monitoring data (2011–2013) support this finding. We also demonstrate that scanning visible reflectance spectroscopy (VIS-RS) data can be calibrated to HPLC-measured chloropigment data and be used to infer concentrations of sedimentary Chl-a derivatives {pheophytin a + pyropheophytin a}. This offers the possibility for very high-resolution (multi)millennial-long paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene regional vegetation cover (plant-functional types and land-cover types) in Europe suitable for climate modelling

We present quantitative reconstructions of regional vegetation cover in north-western Europe, western Europe north of the Alps, and eastern Europe for five time windows in the Holocene around 6k, 3k, 0.5k, 0.2k, and 0.05k calendar years before present (bp)] at a 1 degrees x1 degrees spatial scale with the objective of producing vegetation descriptions suitable for climate modelling. The REVEALS model was applied on 636 pollen records from lakes and bogs to reconstruct the past cover of 25 plant taxa grouped into 10 plant-functional types and three land-cover types evergreen trees, summer-green (deciduous) trees, and open land]. The model corrects for some of the biases in pollen percentages by using pollen productivity estimates and fall speeds of pollen, and by applying simple but robust models of pollen dispersal and deposition. The emerging patterns of tree migration and deforestation between 6k bp and modern time in the REVEALS estimates agree with our general understanding of the vegetation history of Europe based on pollen percentages. However, the degree of anthropogenic deforestation (i.e. cover of cultivated and grazing land) at 3k, 0.5k, and 0.2k bp is significantly higher than deduced from pollen percentages. This is also the case at 6k in some parts of Europe, in particular Britain and Ireland. Furthermore, the relationship between summer-green and evergreen trees, and between individual tree taxa, differs significantly when expressed as pollen percentages or as REVEALS estimates of tree cover. For instance, when Pinus is dominant over Picea as pollen percentages, Picea is dominant over Pinus as REVEALS estimates. These differences play a major role in the reconstruction of European landscapes and for the study of land cover-climate interactions, biodiversity and human resources.

Disparities in treatment rates of paediatric end-stage renal disease across Europe: insights from the ESPN/ERA-EDTA registry.

BACKGROUND Considerable disparities exist in the provision of paediatric renal replacement therapy (RRT) across Europe. This study aims to determine whether these disparities arise from geographical differences in the occurrence of renal disease, or whether country-level access-to-care factors may be responsible. METHODS Incidence was defined as the number of new patients aged 0-14 years starting RRT per year, between 2007 and 2011, per million children (pmc), and was extracted from the ESPN/ERA-EDTA registry database for 35 European countries. Country-level indicators on macroeconomics, perinatal care and physical access to treatment were collected through an online survey and from the World Bank database. The estimated effect is presented per 1SD increase for each indicator. RESULTS The incidence of paediatric RRT in Europe was 5.4 cases pmc. Incidence decreased from Western to Eastern Europe (-1.91 pmc/1321 km, P < 0.0001), and increased from Southern to Northern Europe (0.93 pmc/838 km, P = 0.002). Regional differences in the occurrence of specific renal diseases were marginal. Higher RRT treatment rates were found in wealthier countries (2.47 pmc/€10 378 GDP per capita, P < 0.0001), among those that tend to spend more on healthcare (1.45 pmc/1.7% public health expenditure, P < 0.0001), and among countries where patients pay less out-of-pocket for healthcare (-1.29 pmc/11.7% out-of-pocket health expenditure, P < 0.0001). Country neonatal mortality was inversely related with incidence in the youngest patients (ages 0-4, -1.1 pmc/2.1 deaths per 1000 births, P = 0.10). Countries with a higher incidence had a lower average age at RRT start, which was fully explained by country GDP per capita. CONCLUSIONS Inequalities exist in the provision of paediatric RRT throughout Europe, most of which are explained by differences in country macroeconomics, which limit the provision of treatment particularly in the youngest patients. This poses a challenge for healthcare policy makers in their aim to ensure universal and equal access to high-quality healthcare services across Europe.

Age of cleft monazites in the eastern Tauern Window: constraints on crystallization conditions of hydrothermal monazite

Monazite-bearing Alpine clefts located in the Sonnblick region of the eastern Tauern Window, Austria, are oriented perpendicular to the foliation and lineation. Ion probe (SIMS) Th–Pb and U–Pb dating of four cleft monazites yields crystallization ages of different growth domains and aggregate regions ranging from 18.99 ± 0.51 to 15.00 ± 0.51 Ma. The crystallization ages obtained are overlapping or slightly younger than zircon fission track ages but older than zircon (U–Th)/He cooling ages from the same area. This constrains cleft monazite crystallization in this area to *300–200 �C. LA-ICP-MS data of dated hydrothermal monazites indicate that in graphite-bearing, reduced host lithologies, cleft monazite is poor in As and has higher La/Yb values and U concentrations, whereas in oxidised host rocks opposite trends are observed. Monazites show negative Eu anomalies and variable La/Yb values ranging from 520 to 6050. The positive correlation between Ca and Sr concentration indicates dissolution of plagioclase or carbonates as the source of these elements. The data show that early exhumation and cleft formation in the Tauern is related to metamorphic dome formation caused by the collision of the Adriatic with the European plate and that monazite crystallization in the clefts occurred later. Our data also demonstrate that hydrothermal monazite ages offer great potential in helping to constrain the chronology of exhumation in collisional orogens.