75 resultados para Generalization of Ehrenfest’s urn Model
Resumo:
Pregnant BALB/c mice have been widely used as an in vivo model to study Neospora caninum infection biology and to provide proof-of-concept for assessments of drugs and vaccines against neosporosis. The fact that this model has been used with different isolates of variable virulence, varying infection routes and differing methods to prepare the parasites for infection, has rendered the comparison of results from different laboratories impossible. In most studies, mice were infected with similar number of parasites (2 × 10(6)) as employed in ruminant models (10(7) for cows and 10(6) for sheep), which seems inappropriate considering the enormous differences in the weight of these species. Thus, for achieving meaningful results in vaccination and drug efficacy experiments, a refinement and standardization of this experimental model is necessary. Thus, 2 × 10(6), 10(5), 10(4), 10(3) and 10(2) tachyzoites of the highly virulent and well-characterised Nc-Spain7 isolate were subcutaneously inoculated into mice at day 7 of pregnancy, and clinical outcome, vertical transmission, parasite burden and antibody responses were compared. Dams from all infected groups presented nervous signs and the percentage of surviving pups at day 30 postpartum was surprisingly low (24%) in mice infected with only 10(2) tachyzoites. Importantly, infection with 10(5) tachyzoites resulted in antibody levels, cerebral parasite burden in dams and 100% mortality rate in pups, which was identical to infection with 2 × 10(6) tachyzoites. Considering these results, it is reasonable to lower the challenge dose to 10(5) tachyzoites in further experiments when assessing drugs or vaccine candidates.
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The strength model of self-control assumes that all acts of self-control (e.g., emotion regulation, persistence) are empowered by a single global metaphorical strength that has limited capacity. This strength can become temporarily depleted after a primary self-control act, which, in turn, can impair performance in subsequent acts of self-control. Recently, the assumptions of the strength model of self-control also have been adopted and tested in the field of sport and exercise psychology. The present review paper aims to give an overview of recent developments in self-control research based on the strength model of self-control. Furthermore, recent research on interventions on how to improve and revitalize self-control strength will be presented. Finally, the strength model of self-control has been criticized lately, as well as expanded in scope, so the present paper will also discuss alternative explanations of why previous acts of self-control can lead to impaired performance in sport and exercise.
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The interest in automatic volume meshing for finite element analysis (FEA) has grown more since the appearance of microfocus CT (μCT), due to its high resolution, which allows for the assessment of mechanical behaviour at a high precision. Nevertheless, the basic meshing approach of generating one hexahedron per voxel produces jagged edges. To prevent this effect, smoothing algorithms have been introduced to enhance the topology of the mesh. However, whether smoothing also improves the accuracy of voxel-based meshes in clinical applications is still under question. There is a trade-off between smoothing and quality of elements in the mesh. Distorted elements may be produced by excessive smoothing and reduce accuracy of the mesh. In the present work, influence of smoothing on the accuracy of voxel-based meshes in micro-FE was assessed. An accurate 3D model of a trabecular structure with known apparent mechanical properties was used as a reference model. Virtual CT scans of this reference model (with resolutions of 16, 32 and 64 μm) were then created and used to build voxel-based meshes of the microarchitecture. Effects of smoothing on the apparent mechanical properties of the voxel-based meshes as compared to the reference model were evaluated. Apparent Young’s moduli of the smooth voxel-based mesh were significantly closer to those of the reference model for the 16 and 32 μm resolutions. Improvements were not significant for the 64 μm, due to loss of trabecular connectivity in the model. This study shows that smoothing offers a real benefit to voxel-based meshes used in micro-FE. It might also broaden voxel-based meshing to other biomechanical domains where it was not used previously due to lack of accuracy. As an example, this work will be used in the framework of the European project ContraCancrum, which aims at providing a patient-specific simulation of tumour development in brain and lungs for oncologists. For this type of clinical application, such a fast, automatic, and accurate generation of the mesh is of great benefit.
Resumo:
Generalised epileptic seizures are frequently accompanied by sudden, reversible transitions from low amplitude, irregular background activity to high amplitude, regular spike-wave discharges (SWD) in the EEG. The underlying mechanisms responsible for SWD generation and for the apparently spontaneous transitions to SWD and back again are still not fully understood. Specifically, the role of spatial cortico-cortical interactions in ictogenesis is not well studied. We present a macroscopic, neural mass model of a cortical column which includes two distinct time scales of inhibition. This model can produce both an oscillatory background and a pathological SWD rhythm. We demonstrate that coupling two of these cortical columns can lead to a bistability between out-of-phase, low amplitude background dynamics and in-phase, high amplitude SWD activity. Stimuli can cause state-dependent transitions from background into SWD. In an extended local area of cortex, spatial heterogeneities in a model parameter can lead to spontaneous reversible transitions from a desynchronised background to synchronous SWD due to intermittency. The deterministic model is therefore capable of producing absence seizure-like events without any time dependent adjustment of model parameters. The emergence of such mechanisms due to spatial coupling demonstrates the importance of spatial interactions in modelling ictal dynamics, and in the study of ictogenesis.
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The advantages, limitations and potential applications of available methods for studying erosion of enamel and dentine are reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on the influence of histological differences between the dental hard tissue and the stage of the erosive lesion. No method is suitable for all stages of the lesion. Factors determining the applicability of the methods are: surface condition of the specimen, type of the experimental model, nature of the lesion, need for longitudinal measurements and type of outcome. The most suitable and most widely used methods are: chemical analyses of mineral release and enamel surface hardness for early erosion, and surface profilometry and microradiography for advanced erosion. Morphological changes in eroded dental tissue have usually been characterised by scanning electron microscopy. Novel methods have also been used, but little is known of their potential and limitations. Therefore, there is a need for their further development, evaluation, consolidation and, in particular, validation.
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This study aimed to assess the performance of two prognostic models-the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model and the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI)-in predicting short-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE).
Search for a standard model Higgs boson in the H→ZZ→ℓ(+)ℓ(-)νν decay channel with the ATLAS detector
Resumo:
A search for a heavy standard model Higgs boson decaying via H→ZZ→→ℓ(+)ℓ(-)νν, where ℓ=e, μ, is presented. It is based on proton-proton collision data at √s=7 TeV, collected by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC in the first half of 2011 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.04 fb(-1). The data are compared to the expected standard model backgrounds. The data and the background expectations are found to be in agreement and upper limits are placed on the Higgs boson production cross section over the entire mass window considered; in particular, the production of a standard model Higgs boson is excluded in the region 340
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Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.
Resumo:
Ocean acidification might reduce the ability of calcifying plankton to produce and maintain their shells of calcite, or of aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. In addition to possibly large biological impacts, reduced CaCO3 production corresponds to a negative feedback on atmospheric CO2. In order to explore the sensitivity of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, we use the new biogeochemical Bern3D/PISCES model. The model reproduces the large scale distributions of biogeochemical tracers. With a range of sensitivity studies, we explore the effect of (i) using different parameterizations of CaCO3 production fitted to available laboratory and field experiments, of (ii) letting calcite and aragonite be produced by auto- and heterotrophic plankton groups, and of (iii) using carbon emissions from the range of the most recent IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Under a high-emission scenario, the CaCO3 production of all the model versions decreases from ~1 Pg C yr−1 to between 0.36 and 0.82 Pg C yr−1 by the year 2100. The changes in CaCO3 production and dissolution resulting from ocean acidification provide only a small feedback on atmospheric CO2 of −1 to −11 ppm by the year 2100, despite the wide range of parameterizations, model versions and scenarios included in our study. A potential upper limit of the CO2-calcification/dissolution feedback of −30 ppm by the year 2100 is computed by setting calcification to zero after 2000 in a high 21st century emission scenario. The similarity of feedback estimates yielded by the model version with calcite produced by nanophytoplankton and the one with calcite, respectively aragonite produced by mesozooplankton suggests that expending biogeochemical models to calcifying zooplankton might not be needed to simulate biogeochemical impacts on the marine carbonate cycle. The changes in saturation state confirm previous studies indicating that future anthropogenic CO2 emissions may lead to irreversible changes in ΩA for several centuries. Furthermore, due to the long-term changes in the deep ocean, the ratio of open water CaCO3 dissolution to production stabilizes by the year 2500 at a value that is 30–50% higher than at pre-industrial times when carbon emissions are set to zero after 2100.
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Numerical simulations of eye globes often rely on topographies that have been measured in vivo using devices such as the Pentacam or OCT. The topographies, which represent the form of the already stressed eye under the existing intraocular pressure, introduce approximations in the analysis. The accuracy of the simulations could be improved if either the stress state of the eye under the effect of intraocular pressure is determined, or the stress-free form of the eye estimated prior to conducting the analysis. This study reviews earlier attempts to address this problem and assesses the performance of an iterative technique proposed by Pandolfi and Holzapfel [1], which is both simple to implement and promises high accuracy in estimating the eye's stress-free form. A parametric study has been conducted and demonstrated reliance of the error level on the level of flexibility of the eye model, especially in the cornea region. However, in all cases considered 3-4 analysis iterations were sufficient to produce a stress-free form with average errors in node location <10(-6)mm and a maximal error <10(-4)mm. This error level, which is similar to what has been achieved with other methods and orders of magnitude lower than the accuracy of current clinical topography systems, justifies the use of the technique as a pre-processing step in ocular numerical simulations.
Resumo:
Alternans of cardiac action potential duration (APD) is a well-known arrhythmogenic mechanism which results from dynamical instabilities. The propensity to alternans is classically investigated by examining APD restitution and by deriving APD restitution slopes as predictive markers. However, experiments have shown that such markers are not always accurate for the prediction of alternans. Using a mathematical ventricular cell model known to exhibit unstable dynamics of both membrane potential and Ca2+ cycling, we demonstrate that an accurate marker can be obtained by pacing at cycle lengths (CLs) varying randomly around a basic CL (BCL) and by evaluating the transfer function between the time series of CLs and APDs using an autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model. The first pole of this transfer function corresponds to the eigenvalue (λalt) of the dominant eigenmode of the cardiac system, which predicts that alternans occurs when λalt≤−1. For different BCLs, control values of λalt were obtained using eigenmode analysis and compared to the first pole of the transfer function estimated using ARMA model fitting in simulations of random pacing protocols. In all versions of the cell model, this pole provided an accurate estimation of λalt. Furthermore, during slow ramp decreases of BCL or simulated drug application, this approach predicted the onset of alternans by extrapolating the time course of the estimated λalt. In conclusion, stochastic pacing and ARMA model identification represents a novel approach to predict alternans without making any assumptions about its ionic mechanisms. It should therefore be applicable experimentally for any type of myocardial cell.
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Experiments using animal models are the most common way to learn microsurgery. This expertise is necessary for liver research, microsurgical reconstruction of the esophagus by free jejunum or reconstruction of the hepatic artery during reimplantation from living donors. The goal of this prospective study is to assess the reliability of an invertebrate model for microsurgical training.
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Purpose of review: Overview on integrated care trials focusing on effectiveness and efficiency published from 2011 to 2013. Recent findings: Eight randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and 21 non-RCT studies were published from 2011 to 2013. Studies differed in several methodological aspects such as study population, psychotherapeutic approaches used, outcome parameters, follow-up times, fidelities, and implementation of the integrated care model and the nation-specific healthcare context with different control conditions. This makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions. Most studies demonstrated relevant improvements regarding symptoms (P = 0.001) and functioning (P = 0.01), quality of life (P = 0.01), adherence (P <0.05) and patient's satisfaction (P = 0.01), and reduction of caregiver's stress (P < 0.05). Mean total costs were favoring or at least equalizing costs but with positive effects found on subjective health favoring integrated care models. Summary: There is an increasing interest in the effectiveness and efficiency of integrated care models in patients with mental disorders, specifically in those with severe and persistent mental illness. To increase generalizability, future trials should exactly describe rationales and content of integrated care model and control conditions.
Resumo:
A dynamic deterministic simulation model was developed to assess the impact of different putative control strategies on the seroprevalence of Neospora caninum in female Swiss dairy cattle. The model structure comprised compartments of "susceptible" and "infected" animals (SI-model) and the cattle population was divided into 12 age classes. A reference model (Model 1) was developed to simulate the current (status quo) situation (present seroprevalence in Switzerland 12%), taking into account available demographic and seroprevalence data of Switzerland. Model 1 was modified to represent four putative control strategies: testing and culling of seropositive animals (Model 2), discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows (Model 3), chemotherapeutic treatment of calves from seropositive cows (Model 4), and vaccination of susceptible and infected animals (Model 5). Models 2-4 considered different sub-scenarios with regard to the frequency of diagnostic testing. Multivariable Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of uncertainty in input parameters. A policy of annual testing and culling of all seropositive cattle in the population reduced the seroprevalence effectively and rapidly from 12% to <1% in the first year of simulation. The control strategies with discontinued breeding with offspring from all seropositive cows, chemotherapy of calves and vaccination of all cattle reduced the prevalence more slowly than culling but were still very effective (reduction of prevalence below 2% within 11, 23 and 3 years of simulation, respectively). However, sensitivity analyses revealed that the effectiveness of these strategies depended strongly on the quality of the input parameters used, such as the horizontal and vertical transmission factors, the sensitivity of the diagnostic test and the efficacy of medication and vaccination. Finally, all models confirmed that it was not possible to completely eradicate N. caninum as long as the horizontal transmission process was not interrupted.
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Recently developed computer applications provide tools for planning cranio-maxillofacial interventions based on 3-dimensional (3D) virtual models of the patient's skull obtained from computed-tomography (CT) scans. Precise knowledge of the location of the mid-facial plane is important for the assessment of deformities and for planning reconstructive procedures. In this work, a new method is presented to automatically compute the mid-facial plane on the basis of a surface model of the facial skeleton obtained from CT. The method matches homologous surface areas selected by the user on the left and right facial side using an iterative closest point optimization. The symmetry plane which best approximates this matching transformation is then computed. This new automatic method was evaluated in an experimental study. The study included experienced and inexperienced clinicians defining the symmetry plane by a selection of landmarks. This manual definition was systematically compared with the definition resulting from the new automatic method: Quality of the symmetry planes was evaluated by their ability to match homologous areas of the face. Results show that the new automatic method is reliable and leads to significantly higher accuracy than the manual method when performed by inexperienced clinicians. In addition, the method performs equally well in difficult trauma situations, where key landmarks are unreliable or absent.