The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios were derived from ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project. Their respective temperature and precipitation changes between the scenario period (2074–2095) and the control period (1984–2005) were used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest) was assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland were analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51%) and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area). The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as changes in evaporation or soil moisture are concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchments with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in this study, though, is the climate scenario and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in the impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e., a humid, mid-latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems.

Patterns of exposure to infectious diseases and social contacts in early life and risk of brain tumours in children and adolescents: an International Case-Control Study (CEFALO)

BACKGROUND Infectious diseases and social contacts in early life have been proposed to modulate brain tumour risk during late childhood and adolescence. METHODS CEFALO is an interview-based case-control study in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland, including children and adolescents aged 7-19 years with primary intracranial brain tumours diagnosed between 2004 and 2008 and matched population controls. RESULTS The study included 352 cases (participation rate: 83%) and 646 controls (71%). There was no association with various measures of social contacts: daycare attendance, number of childhours at daycare, attending baby groups, birth order or living with other children. Cases of glioma and embryonal tumours had more frequent sick days with infections in the first 6 years of life compared with controls. In 7-19 year olds with 4+ monthly sick day, the respective odds ratios were 2.93 (95% confidence interval: 1.57-5.50) and 4.21 (95% confidence interval: 1.24-14.30). INTERPRETATION There was little support for the hypothesis that social contacts influence childhood and adolescent brain tumour risk. The association between reported sick days due to infections and risk of glioma and embryonal tumour may reflect involvement of immune functions, recall bias or inverse causality and deserve further attention.

The additive and interactive roles of aggression, prosocial behavior, and social preference in predicting resource control in young children

Distinguishing between physical and social aggression, this study examined whether the predictive effect of aggression on resource control a) is moderated by prosocial behavior and b) corresponds to a linear or a curvilinear trend. Moderating effects of children’s social preference among peers and child sex in this context were also tested. Based on a sample of 682 kindergarten children (348 girls; average age 72.7 months, 3.6 SD), multilevel regressions revealed additive linear effects of social preference and prosociality on resource control. Moderate (but not high) levels of social aggression also facilitated resource control for disliked children. There was no such threshold effect for well liked children, who increasingly controlled the resource the more socially aggressive they were. In contrast, physical aggression hampered resource control unless used very modestly. The present study has a number of positive features. First, the distinction between physical and social aggression improves our understanding of the relation between aggression and social competence and sketches a more differentiated picture of the role of different forms of aggression in resource control. Second, this study combines the concept of resource control with the concept of social preference and investigates curvilinear effects of aggression. Third, the direct observation of resource control in the Movie Viewer increases the internal validity of this study.