Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium

Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.

Differences in coping, self-efficacy, and external control beliefs between patients at-risk for psychosis and patients with first-episode psychosis

Patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP) often show dysfunctional coping patterns, low self-efficacy, and external control beliefs that are considered to be risk factors for the development of psychosis. Therefore, these factors should already be present in patients at-risk for psychosis (AR). We compared frequencies of deficits in coping strategies (Stress-Coping-Questionnaires, SVF-120/SVF-KJ), self-efficacy, and control beliefs (Competence and Control Beliefs Questionnaire, FKK) between AR (n=21) and FEP (n=22) patients using a cross-sectional design. Correlations among coping, self-efficacy, and control beliefs were assessed in both groups. The majority of AR and FEP patients demonstrated deficits in coping skills, self-efficacy, and control beliefs. However, AR patients more frequently reported a lack of positive coping strategies, low self-efficacy, and a fatalistic externalizing bias. In contrast, FEP patients were characterized by being overly self-confident. These findings suggest that dysfunctional coping, self-efficacy, and control beliefs are already evident in AR patients, though different from those in FEP patients. The pattern of deficits in AR patients closely resembles that of depressive patients, which may reflect high levels of depressiveness in AR patients. Apart from being worthwhile treatment targets, these coping and belief patterns are promising candidates for predicting outcome in AR patients, including the conversion to psychosis

Poor Reliability between Cochrane Reviewers and Blinded External Reviewers When Applying the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool in Physical Therapy Trials

OBJECTIVES To test the inter-rater reliability of the RoB tool applied to Physical Therapy (PT) trials by comparing ratings from Cochrane review authors with those of blinded external reviewers. METHODS Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in PT were identified by searching the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for meta-analysis of PT interventions. RoB assessments were conducted independently by 2 reviewers blinded to the RoB ratings reported in the Cochrane reviews. Data on RoB assessments from Cochrane reviews and other characteristics of reviews and trials were extracted. Consensus assessments between the two reviewers were then compared with the RoB ratings from the Cochrane reviews. Agreement between Cochrane and blinded external reviewers was assessed using weighted kappa (κ). RESULTS In total, 109 trials included in 17 Cochrane reviews were assessed. Inter-rater reliability on the overall RoB assessment between Cochrane review authors and blinded external reviewers was poor (κ  =  0.02, 95%CI: -0.06, 0.06]). Inter-rater reliability on individual domains of the RoB tool was poor (median κ  = 0.19), ranging from κ  =  -0.04 ("Other bias") to κ  =  0.62 ("Sequence generation"). There was also no agreement (κ  =  -0.29, 95%CI: -0.81, 0.35]) in the overall RoB assessment at the meta-analysis level. CONCLUSIONS Risk of bias assessments of RCTs using the RoB tool are not consistent across different research groups. Poor agreement was not only demonstrated at the trial level but also at the meta-analysis level. Results have implications for decision making since different recommendations can be reached depending on the group analyzing the evidence. Improved guidelines to consistently apply the RoB tool and revisions to the tool for different health areas are needed.

Part two: Against the motion. External diameter for AAA size

Aneurysm diameter measurement is quick and easy, but suffers from the pitfalls of being "too rough and ready". When semi-automated segmentation took 7-10 minutes to estimate volume, it was not a practical tool for busy, routine clinical practice. Today, the availability of automatic segmentation in seconds is bound to make volume measurement, along with 3D ultrasonography, the tools of the future. There can be no debate.

Modulating presence and impulsiveness by external stimulation of the brain

BACKGROUND "The feeling of being there" is one possible way to describe the phenomenon of feeling present in a virtual environment and to act as if this environment is real. One brain area, which is hypothesized to be critically involved in modulating this feeling (also called presence) is the dorso-lateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), an area also associated with the control of impulsive behavior. METHODS In our experiment we applied transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) to the right dlPFC in order to modulate the experience of presence while watching a virtual roller coaster ride. During the ride we also registered electro-dermal activity. Subjects also performed a test measuring impulsiveness and answered a questionnaire about their presence feeling while they were exposed to the virtual roller coaster scenario. RESULTS Application of cathodal tDCS to the right dlPFC while subjects were exposed to a virtual roller coaster scenario modulates the electrodermal response to the virtual reality stimulus. In addition, measures reflecting impulsiveness were also modulated by application of cathodal tDCS to the right dlPFC. CONCLUSION Modulating the activation with the right dlPFC results in substantial changes in responses of the vegetative nervous system and changed impulsiveness. The effects can be explained by theories discussing the top-down influence of the right dlPFC on the "impulsive system".

Restrained and external-emotional eating patterns in young overweight children-results of the ulm birth cohort study

Childhood obesity is one of the greatest public health challenges in Western countries. Abnormal eating behavior is thought to be a developmental trajectory to obesity. The Eating Pattern Inventory for Children (EPI-C) has not been used for children as young as eight years, and possible associations with body weight have not yet been established. Five hundred and twenty-one children of the Ulm Birth Cohort Study (UBCS; age eight) filled out the EPI-C and BMI was assessed. Adequacy of the scales was tested with confirmatory factor analysis and a MANOVA and cluster analysis established associations between eating patterns and BMI. The factor structure of the EPI-C was confirmed (GFI = .968) and abnormal eating behavior was associated with overweight (χ2(8) = 79.29, p<.001). The EPI-C is a valid assessment tool in this young age group. Overweight children consciously restrain their eating.

Noninvasive referencing of intraocular tumors for external beam radiation therapy using optical coherence tomography: a proof of concept.

PURPOSE External beam radiation therapy is currently considered the most common treatment modality for intraocular tumors. Localization of the tumor and efficient compensation of tumor misalignment with respect to the radiation beam are crucial. According to the state of the art procedure, localization of the target volume is indirectly performed by the invasive surgical implantation of radiopaque clips or is limited to positioning the head using stereoscopic radiographies. This work represents a proof-of-concept for direct and noninvasive tumor referencing based on anterior eye topography acquired using optical coherence tomography (OCT). METHODS A prototype of a head-mounted device has been developed for automatic monitoring of tumor position and orientation in the isocentric reference frame for LINAC based treatment of intraocular tumors. Noninvasive tumor referencing is performed with six degrees of freedom based on anterior eye topography acquired using OCT and registration of a statistical eye model. The proposed prototype was tested based on enucleated pig eyes and registration accuracy was measured by comparison of the resulting transformation with tilt and torsion angles manually induced using a custom-made test bench. RESULTS Validation based on 12 enucleated pig eyes revealed an overall average registration error of 0.26 ± 0.08° in 87 ± 0.7 ms for tilting and 0.52 ± 0.03° in 94 ± 1.4 ms for torsion. Furthermore, dependency of sampling density on mean registration error was quantitatively assessed. CONCLUSIONS The tumor referencing method presented in combination with the statistical eye model introduced in the past has the potential to enable noninvasive treatment and may improve quality, efficacy, and flexibility of external beam radiotherapy of intraocular tumors.

Infection rate of emergency bolt-kit vs. non-emergency conventional implanted silver bearing external ventricular drainage catheters.

BACKGROUND Bolt-kit systems are increasingly used as an alternative to conventional external cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage systems. Since 2009 we regularly utilize bolt-kit external ventricular drainage (EVD) systems with silver-bearing catheters inserted manually with a hand drill and skull screws for emergency ventriculostomy. For non-emergency situations, we use conventional ventriculostomy with subcutaneous tunneled silver-bearing catheters, performed in the operating room with a pneumatic drill. This retrospective analysis compared the two techniques in terms of infection rates. METHODS 152 patients (aged 17-85 years, mean=55.4 years) were included in the final analysis; 95 received bolt-kit silver-bearing catheters and 57 received conventionally implanted silver-bearing catheters. The primary endpoint combined infection parameters: occurrence of positive CSF culture, colonization of catheter tips, or elevated CSF white blood cell counts (>4/μl). Secondary outcome parameters were presence of microorganisms in CSF or on catheter tips. Incidence of increased CSF cell counts and number of patients with catheter malposition were also compared. RESULTS The primary outcome, defined as analysis of combined infection parameters (occurrence of either positive CSF culture, colonization of the catheter tips or raised CSF white blood cell counts >4/μl)was not significantly different between the groups (58.9% bolt-kit group vs. 63.2% conventionally implanted group, p=0.61, chi-square-test). The bolt-kit group was non-inferior and not superior to the conventional group (relative risk reduction of 6.7%; 90% confidence interval: -19.9% to 25.6%). Secondary outcomes showed no statistically significant difference in the incidence of microorganisms in CSF (2.1% bolt-kit vs. 5.3% conventionally implanted; p=0.30; chi-square-test). CONCLUSIONS This analysis indicates that silver-bearing EVD catheters implanted with a bolt-kit system outside the operating room do not significantly elevate the risk of CSF infection as compared to conventional implant methods.