Past and future carbon fluxes from land use change, shifting cultivation and wood harvest

Carbon emissions from anthropogenic land use (LU) and land use change (LUC) are quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the past and the 21st century following Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Wood harvesting and parallel abandonment and expansion of agricultural land in areas of shifting cultivation are explicitly simulated (gross LUC) based on the Land Use Harmonization (LUH) dataset and a proposed alternative method that relies on minimum input data and generically accounts for gross LUC. Cumulative global LUC emissions are 72 GtC by 1850 and 243 GtC by 2004 and 27–151 GtC for the next 95 yr following the different RCP scenarios. The alternative method reproduces results based on LUH data with full transition information within <0.1 GtC/yr over the last decades and bears potential for applications in combination with other LU scenarios. In the last decade, shifting cultivation and wood harvest within remaining forests including slash each contributed 19% to the mean annual emissions of 1.2 GtC/yr. These factors, in combination with amplification effects under elevated CO2, contribute substantially to future emissions from LUC in all RCPs.

Effects of anxiety on decision making and visual search Behaviour in dynamic, time-constrained situations

Einleitung Aktuelle empirische Befunde deuten darauf hin, dass Sportler/innen durch Stress und erhöhte Angst eine reduzierte Effizienz bei der Entscheidungsfindung aufweisen (Wilson, 2008). Erklärt werden kann dieser Befund durch die Attentional-Control-Theory (ACT, Eysenck et al., 2007), die postuliert, dass aufmerksamkeitslenkende Prozesse unter Angst gestört werden. Um diese Annahme für komplexe Situationen im Sport zu prüfen, wurden Fußballspieler unter erhöhten und regulären Druckbedingungen verglichen. Methode Je 11 Experten und Nicht-Experten hatten aus der Perspektive des Abwehrspielers die Aufgabe, in zwei mal 24 Spielsituationen so schnell und korrekt wie möglich verbal anzugeben, welche Aktion der ballführende Spieler (in naher vs. ferner Spielsituation) nach Ausblendung der Szene ausführen wird. Während im ersten Block der Druck nicht erhöht wurde, wurden Druckbedingungen im zweiten Block u.a. durch eine Wettkampfsituation und „falscher“ Ergebnisrückmeldung gesteigert. Entscheidungs- und Blickverhalten (u.a. Anzahl Fixationen), Pupillengröße, Zustandsangst und „Mental Effort“ (Wilson, 2008) wurden erfasst. Neben Expertiseunterschieden wurde erwartet, dass erhöhte Angst die Entscheidungseffizienz sowie das Blickverhalten stört (ACT-Annahme), was mit 2 (Experten/Nicht-Experten) x 2 (nahe/ferne Spielsituation) x 2 (hohe/reguläre Druckbedingung) ANOVAs (? = .05) mit Messwiederholungen auf den letzten beiden Faktoren geprüft wurde. Ergebnisse Druckmanipulationen führten zu höherer Zustandsangst und größeren Pupillendurchmessern. Neben Expertiseunterschieden – Experten antworteten schneller, korrekter und zeigten ein situationsangepasstes visuelles Suchverhalten – wiesen beide Gruppen in Drucksituationen längere Antwortzeiten und höheren Mental Effort auf. Erhöhter Druck führte bei Experten zur Reduktion der Fixationsortwechsel für ferne Spielsituationen. Nicht-Experten differenzierten ihr Suchverhalten weder zwischen Bedingungen noch für Spielsituationen. Diskussion Die Resultate bestätigen die ACT-Annahme, dass Angst und Stress die sportliche Leistung durch längere Reaktionszeiten, höhere kognitive Anstrengung und ein teilweise ineffizientes visuelles Suchverhalten negativ beeinflusst. Eine gestörte Balance zwischen Top-Down und Bottom-Up-Prozessen könnte die Ursache sein (Eysenck et al., 2007). Literatur Eysenck, M. W., Derakshan, N., Santos, R., & Calvo, M. G. (2007). Anxiety and cognitive performance: Attentional control theory. Emotion, 7, 336–353. Wilson, M. (2008). From processing efficiency to attentional control: A mechanistic account of the anxiety-performance relationship. International Review of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 1, 184– 201. 2 Vorträge und Poster

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth’s recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

Dynamic computer simulation of electrophoretic enantiomer migration order and separation in presence of a neutral cyclodextrin

One-dimensional dynamic computer simulation was employed to investigate the separation and migration order change of ketoconazole enantiomers at low pH in presence of increasing amounts of (2-hydroxypropyl)-β-cyclodextrin (OHP-β-CD). The 1:1 interaction of ketoconazole with the neutral cyclodextrin was simulated under real experimental conditions and by varying input parameters for complex mobilities and complexation constants. Simulation results obtained with experimentally determined apparent ionic mobilities, complex mobilities, and complexation constants were found to compare well with the calculated separation selectivity and experimental data. Simulation data revealed that the migration order of the ketoconazole enantiomers at low (OHP-β-CD) concentrations (i.e. below migration order inversion) is essentially determined by the difference in complexation constants and at high (OHP-β-CD) concentrations (i.e. above migration order inversion) by the difference in complex mobilities. Furthermore, simulations with complex mobilities set to zero provided data that mimic migration order and separation with the chiral selector being immobilized. For the studied CEC configuration, no migration order inversion is predicted and separations are shown to be quicker and electrophoretic transport reduced in comparison to migration in free solution. The presented data illustrate that dynamic computer simulation is a valuable tool to study electrokinetic migration and separations of enantiomers in presence of a complexing agent.

Attributional styles and stress-related atherogenic plasma lipid reactivity in essential hypertension.

OBJECTIVE Hypertension and an atherogenic lipid profile are known risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD). Hypertensives show greater changes in atherogenic plasma lipids to acute stress than normotensives. In this study, we investigated whether attribution of failure is associated with lipid stress reactivity in hypertensive compared with normotensive men. METHODS 18 normotensive and 17 hypertensive men (mean±SEM; 45±2.2 years) underwent an acute standardized psychosocial stress task that can be viewed as a situation of experimentally induced failure. We assessed external-stable (ES), external-variable (EV), internal-stable (IS), and internal-variable (IV) attribution of failure and psychological control variables (i.e. extent of depression and neuroticism). Moreover, total cholesterol (TC), low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and norepinephrine were measured immediately before and several times after stress. RESULTS ES moderated TC- and LDL-C-stress reactivity in hypertensives as compared to normotensives (interaction mean arterial pressure [MAP]-by-ES for TC: F=3.71, p=.015; for LDL-C: F=3.61, p=.016). TC and LDL-C levels were highest in hypertensives with low ES immediately after stress (p≤.039). In contrast, hypertensives with high ES did not differ from normotensives in TC and LDL-C immediately after stress (p's>.28). Controlling for norepinephrine, depression, and neuroticism in addition to age and BMI did not significantly change results. There were no significant associations between lipid baseline levels or aggregated lipid secretion and IS, IV, or EV (p's>.23). CONCLUSION Our data suggest that ES may independently protect from elevated lipid stress reactivity in hypertensive individuals. ES thus might be a protective factor against CHD in hypertension.

Evaluation of liver parenchyma and perfusion using dynamic contrast-enhanced computed tomography and contrast-enhanced ultrasonography in captive green iguanas (Iguana iguana) under general anesthesia.

BACKGROUND Contrast-enhanced diagnostic imaging techniques are considered useful in veterinary and human medicine to evaluate liver perfusion and focal hepatic lesions. Although hepatic diseases are a common occurrence in reptile medicine, there is no reference to the use of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) to evaluate the liver in lizards. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the pattern of change in echogenicity and attenuation of the liver in green iguanas (Iguana iguana) after administration of specific contrast media. RESULTS An increase in liver echogenicity and density was evident during CEUS and CECT, respectively. In CEUS, the mean ± SD (median; range) peak enhancement was 19.9% ± 7.5 (18.3; 11.7-34.6). Time to peak enhancement was 134.0 ± 125.1 (68.4; 59.6-364.5) seconds. During CECT, first visualization of the contrast medium was at 3.6 ± 0.5 (4; 3-4) seconds in the aorta, 10.7 ± 2.2 (10.5; 7-14) seconds in the hepatic arteries, and 15 ± 4.5 (14.5; 10-24) seconds in the liver parenchyma. Time to peak was 14.1 ± 3.4 (13; 11-21) and 31 ± 9.6 (29; 23-45) seconds in the aorta and the liver parenchyma, respectively. CONCLUSION CEUS and dynamic CECT are practical means to determine liver hemodynamics in green iguanas. Distribution of contrast medium in iguana differed from mammals. Specific reference ranges of hepatic perfusion for diagnostic evaluation of the liver in iguanas are necessary since the use of mammalian references may lead the clinician to formulate incorrect diagnostic suspicions.

Dynamic intraligamentary stabilization and primary repair: A new concept for the treatment of knee dislocation.

BACKGROUND Traumatic knee dislocation represents a rare but devastating injury. Several controversies persist regarding type of treatment, surgical timing, graft selection, repair versus reconstruction of the medial and lateral structures, surgical techniques and postoperative rehabilitation. A new technique for primary ACL stabilization, dynamic intaligamentary stabilization (DIS) was developed at the authors' institution. The purpose of this study was to analyze the clinical and radiological outcomes of surgically treated traumatic knee dislocations by means of the DIS technique for the ACL, primary suturing for PCL, MCL and LCL. METHODS Between 2009 and 2012, 35 patients treated surgically for traumatic knee dislocation with primary anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction with DIS, suturing of the posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) and primary complete repair of collaterals, were evaluated clinically (IKDC score, SF12 health survey, Lysholm score, Tegner score) and radiologically with a mean follow up of 2.2 years (range 1.00-3.50 years) years. Instrumented anterior-posterior translation was measured (KT-2000). RESULTS Anterior/posterior translation (KT-2000) for the healthy and injured limb was 4.8mm (range 3-8mm) and 7.3mm (range 5-10) (89N) respectively. Valgus and varus stress testing in 30° flexion was normal in 26 (75%) and 29 (83%) patients, respectively. The IKDC score was B in 29 (83%) and C in 6 (17%) patients, while the mean Tegner score was 6 (range 4-8). The mean Lysholm score was 90.83 (range 81-95) and mean SF-12 physical and mental scores were 54.1 (range 45-60) and 51.0 (range 39-62) respectively. In 2 patients, a secondary operation was performed. CONCLUSIONS Early, one stage reconstruction with DIS can achieve good functional results and patient satisfaction with overall restoration of sports and working capacity without graft requirements.

Factors Controlling Species Richness in Alpine Plant Communities: An Assessment of the Importance of Stress and Disturbance

This study explores whether the high variability of vascular plant diversity among alpine plant communities can be explained by stress and/or disturbance intensities. Species numbers of 14 alpine plant communities were sampled in the Swiss Alps. To quantify the intensity of 13 stress and 6 disturbance factors potentially controlling plant life in these communities, a survey was conducted by asking numerous specialists in alpine vegetation to assess the importance of the different factors for each community. The estimated values were combined in stress- and disturbance-indices which were compared with diversity according to the Intermediate Stress Hypothesis, the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis, and the Dynamic Equilibrium Model, respectively. Each of these theories explained a part of the variability in the species richness, but only the Dynamic Equilibrium Model provided a complete and consistent explanation. The last model suggests that community species richness within the alpine life zone is generally controlled by stress intensity. Disturbance and competition seem to play a secondary role by fine-tuning diversity in specific communities. As diversity is primarily limited by stress, a moderation of temperature-related stress factors, as a result of global warming, may cause a shift of the equilibrium between stress, disturbance, and competition in alpine ecosystems.

Density-dependent dynamics of a dominant rain forest tree change with juvenile stage and time of masting

Although negative density dependence (NDD) can facilitate tree species coexistence in forests, the underlying mechanisms can differ, and rarely are the dynamics of seedlings and saplings studied together. Herein we present and discuss a novel mechanism based on our investigation of NDD predictions for the large, grove-forming ectomycorrhizal mast fruiting tree, Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpiniaceae), in an 82.5-ha plot at Korup, Cameroon. We tested whether juvenile density, size, growth and survival decreases with increasing conspecific adult basal area for 3245 ‘new’ seedlings and 540 ‘old’ seedlings (< 75-cm tall) during an approximately 4-year study period (2008–2012) and for 234 ‘saplings’ (≥ 75-cm tall) during an approximately 6-year study period (2008–2014). We found that the respective densities of new seedlings, old seedlings and saplings were positively, not and negatively related to increasing BA. Maximum leaf numbers and heights of old seedlings were negatively correlated with increasing basal areas, as were sapling heights and stem diameters. Whereas survivorship of new seedlings decreased by more than one-half with increasing basal area over its range in 2010–2012, that of old seedlings decreased by almost two-thirds, but only in 2008–2010, and was generally unrelated to conspecific seedling density. In 2010–2012 relative growth rates in new seedlings’ heights decreased with increasing basal area, as well as with increasing seedling density, together with increasing leaf numbers, whereas old seedlings’ growth was unrelated to either conspecific density or basal area. Saplings of below-average height had reduced survivorship with increasing basal area (probability decreasing from approx. 0.4 to 0.05 over the basal area range tested), but only sapling growth in terms of leaf numbers decreased with increasing basal area. These static and dynamic results indicate that NDD is operating within this system, possibly stabilizing the M. bisulcata population. However, these NDD patterns are unlikely to be caused by symmetric competition or by consumers. Instead, an alternative mechanism for conspecific adult–juvenile negative feedback is proposed, one which involves the interaction between tree phenology and ectomycorrhizal linkages.

Behaviour change counselling for tobacco use cessation and promotion of healthy lifestyles: a systematic review

AIM To systematically assess the efficacy of oral health behaviour change counselling for tobacco use cessation (TUC) and the promotion of healthy lifestyles. MATERIALS AND METHODS Systematic Reviews, Randomized (RCTs), and Controlled Clinical Trials (CCTs) were identified through an electronic search of four databases complemented by manual search. Identification, screening, eligibility and inclusion of studies were performed independently by two reviewers. Quality assessment of the included publications was performed according to the AMSTAR tool for the assessment of the methodological quality of systematic reviews. RESULTS A total of seven systematic reviews were included. With the exception of inadequate oral hygiene, the following unhealthy lifestyles related with periodontal diseases were investigated: tobacco use, unhealthy diets, harmful use of alcohol, physical inactivity, and stress. Brief interventions for TUC were shown to be effective when applied in the dental practice setting while evidence for dietary counselling and the promotion of other healthy lifestyles was limited or non-existent. CONCLUSIONS While aiming to improve periodontal treatment outcomes and the maintenance of periodontal health current evidence suggests that tobacco use brief interventions conducted in the dental practice setting were effective thus underlining the rational for behavioural support.

Central European vegetation response to abrupt climate change at 8.2 ka

Oxygen isotope records show a major climatic reversal at 8.2 ka in Greenland and Europe. Annually laminated sediments from two lakes in Switzerland and Germany were sampled contiguously to assess the response of European vegetation to climate change ca. 8.2 ka with time resolution and precision comparable to those of the Greenland ice cores. The pollen assemblages show pronounced and immediate responses (0–20 yr) of terrestrial vegetation to the climatic change at 8.2 ka. A sudden collapse of Corylus avellana (hazel) was accompanied by the rapid expansion of Pinus (pine), Betula (birch), and Tilia (linden), and by the invasion of Fagus silvatica (beech) and Abies alba (fir). Vegetational changes suggest that climatic cooling reduced drought stress, allowing more drought-sensitive and taller growing species to out-compete Corylus avellana by forming denser forest canopies. Climate cooling at 8.2 ka and the immediate reorganization of terrestrial ecosystems has gone unrecognized by previous pollen studies. On the basis of our data we conclude that the early Holocene high abundance of C. avellana in Europe was climatically caused, and we question the conventional opinion that postglacial expansions of F. silvatica and A. alba were controlled by low migration rates rather than by climate. The close connection between climatic change and vegetational response at a subcontinental scale implies that forecasted global warming may trigger rapid collapses, expansions, and invasions of tree species.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

Drought stress and carbon assimilation in a warming climate: Reversible and irreversible impacts

Abstract Global change is characterized by increased {CO2} concentration in the atmosphere, increasing average temperature and more frequent extreme events including drought periods, heat waves and flooding. Especially the impacts of drought and of elevated temperature on carbon assimilation are considered in this review. Effects of extreme events on the subcellular level as well as on the whole plant level may be reversible, partially reversible or irreversible. The photosynthetically active biomass depends on the number and the size of mature leaves and the photosynthetic activity in this biomass during stress and subsequent recovery phases. The total area of active leaves is determined by leaf expansion and senescence, while net photosynthesis per leaf area is primarily influenced by stomatal opening (stomatal conductance), mesophyll conductance, activity of the photosynthetic apparatus (light absorption and electron transport, activity of the Calvin cycle) and {CO2} release by decarboxylation reactions (photorespiration, dark respiration). Water status, stomatal opening and leaf temperature represent a "magic triangle" of three strongly interacting parameters. The response of stomata to altered environmental conditions is important for stomatal limitations. Rubisco protein is quite thermotolerant, but the enzyme becomes at elevated temperature more rapidly inactivated (decarbamylation, reversible effect) and must be reactivated by Rubisco activase (carbamylation of a lysine residue). Rubisco activase is present under two forms (encoded by separate genes or products of alternative splicing of the pre-mRNA from one gene) and is very thermosensitive. Rubisco activase was identified as a key protein for photosynthesis at elevated temperature (non-stomatal limitation). During a moderate heat stress Rubisco activase is reversibly inactivated, but during a more severe stress (higher temperature and/or longer exposure) the protein is irreversibly inactivated, insolubilized and finally degraded. On the level of the leaf, this loss of photosynthetic activity may still be reversible when new Rubisco activase is produced by protein synthesis. Rubisco activase as well as enzymes involved in the detoxification of reactive oxygen species or in osmoregulation are considered as important targets for breeding crop plants which are still productive under drought and/or at elevated leaf temperature in a changing climate.

Plant diversity moderates drought stress in grasslands: Implications from a large real-world study on 13C natural abundances

Land-use change and intensification play a key role in the current biodiversity crisis. The resulting species loss can have severe effects on ecosystem functions and services, thereby increasing ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. We explored whether land-use intensification (i.e. fertilization intensity), plant diversity and other potentially confounding environmental factors may be significantly related to water use (i.e. drought stress) of grassland plants. Drought stress was assessed using δ13C abundances in aboveground plant biomass of 150 grassland plots across a gradient of land-use intensity. Under water shortage, plants are forced to increasingly take up the heavier 13C due to closing stomata leading to an enrichment of 13C in biomass. Plants were sampled at the community level and for single species, which belong to three different functional groups (one grass, one herb, two legumes). Results show that plant diversity was significantly related to the δ13C signal in community, grass and legume biomass indicating that drought stress was lower under higher diversity, although this relation was not significant for the herb species under study. Fertilization, in turn, mostly increased drought stress as indicated by more positive δ13C values. This effect was mostly indirect by decreasing plant diversity. In line with these results, we found similar patterns in the δ13C signal of the organic matter in the topsoil, indicating a long history of these processes. Our study provided strong indication for a positive biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship with reduced drought stress at higher plant diversity. However, it also underlined a negative reinforcing situation: as land-use intensification decreases plant diversity in grasslands, this might subsequently increases drought sensitivity. Vice-versa, enhancing plant diversity in species-poor agricultural grasslands may moderate negative effects of future climate change.

Family Models of In(ter)dependence: Cultural Change and the Question of Universal Needs

I will start by discussing some aspects of Kagitcibasi’s Theory of Family Change: its current empirical status and, more importantly, its focus on universal human needs and the consequences of this focus. Family Change Theory’s focus on the universality of the basic human needs of autonomy and relatedness and its culture-level emphasis on cultural norms and family values as reflecting a culture’s capacity for fulfilling its members’ respective needs shows that the theory advocates balanced cultural norms of independence and interdependence. As a normative theory it therefore postulates the necessity of a synthetic family model of emotional interdependence as an alternative to extreme models of total independence and total interdependence. Generalizing from this I will sketch a theoretical model where a dynamic and dialectical process of the fit between individual and culture and between culture and universal human needs and related social practices is central. I will discuss this model using a recent cross-cultural project on implicit theories of self/world and primary/secondary control orientations as an example. Implications for migrating families and acculturating individuals are also discussed.