Links between atmospheric carbon dioxide, the land carbon reservoir and climate over the past millennium

The stability of terrestrial carbon reservoirs is thought to be closely linked to variations in climate 1, but the magnitude of carbon–climate feedbacks has proved dificult to constrain for both modern 2–4 and millennial 5–13 timescales. Reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the past thousand years have shown fluctuations on multidecadal to centennial timescales 5–7, but the causes of these fluctuations are unclear. Here we report high-resolution carbon isotope measurements of CO2 trapped within the ice of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core for the past 1,000 years. We use a deconvolution approach 14 to show that changes in terrestrial organic carbon stores best explain the observed multidecadal variations in the 13 C of CO2 and in CO2 concentrations from 755 to 1850 CE. If significant long-term carbon emissions came from pre-industrial anthropogenic land-use changes over this interval, the emissions must have been offset by a natural terrestrial sink for 13 C-depleted carbon, such as peatlands. We find that on multidecadal timescales, carbon cycle changes seem to vary with reconstructed regional climate changes. We conclude that climate variability could be an important control of fluctuations in land carbon storage on these timescales.

A chrysophyte-based quantitative reconstruction of winter severity from varved lake sediments in NE Poland during the past millennium and its relationship to natural climate variability

Chrysophyte cysts are recognized as powerful proxies of cold-season temperatures. In this paper we use the relationship between chrysophyte assemblages and the number of days below 4 °C (DB4 °C) in the epilimnion of a lake in northern Poland to develop a transfer function and to reconstruct winter severity in Poland for the last millennium. DB4 °C is a climate variable related to the length of the winter. Multivariate ordination techniques were used to study the distribution of chrysophytes from sediment traps of 37 low-land lakes distributed along a variety of environmental and climatic gradients in northern Poland. Of all the environmental variables measured, stepwise variable selection and individual Redundancy analyses (RDA) identified DB4 °C as the most important variable for chrysophytes, explaining a portion of variance independent of variables related to water chemistry (conductivity, chlorides, K, sulfates), which were also important. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate DB4 °C from sedimentary assemblages using partial least square regression (PLS). The two-component model (PLS-2) had a coefficient of determination of View the MathML sourceRcross2 = 0.58, with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on leave-one-out) of 3.41 days. The resulting transfer function was applied to an annually-varved sediment core from Lake Żabińskie, providing a new sub-decadal quantitative reconstruction of DB4 °C with high chronological accuracy for the period AD 1000–2010. During Medieval Times (AD 1180–1440) winters were generally shorter (warmer) except for a decade with very long and severe winters around AD 1260–1270 (following the AD 1258 volcanic eruption). The 16th and 17th centuries and the beginning of the 19th century experienced very long severe winters. Comparison with other European cold-season reconstructions and atmospheric indices for this region indicates that large parts of the winter variability (reconstructed DB4 °C) is due to the interplay between the oscillations of the zonal flow controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the influence of continental anticyclonic systems (Siberian High, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern). Differences with other European records are attributed to geographic climatological differences between Poland and Western Europe (Low Countries, Alps). Striking correspondence between the combined volcanic and solar forcing and the DB4 °C reconstruction prior to the 20th century suggests that winter climate in Poland responds mostly to natural forced variability (volcanic and solar) and the influence of unforced variability is low.

Depositional modes and lake-level variability at Lake Towuti, Indonesia, during the past ~29 kyr BP

Lake Towuti (2.5°S, 121.5°E) is a long-lived, tectonic lake located on the Island of Sulawesi, Indonesia, and in the center of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). Lake Towuti is connected with upstream lakes Matano and Mahalona through the Mahalona River, which constitutes the largest inlet to the lake. The Mahalona River Delta is prograding into Lake Towuti’s deep northern basin thus exerting significant control on depositional processes in the basin. We combine high-resolution seismic reflection and sedimentological datasets from a 19.8-m-long sediment piston core from the distal edge of this delta to characterize fluctuations in deltaic sedimentation during the past ~29 kyr BP and their relation to climatic change. Our datasets reveal that, in the present, sedimentation is strongly influenced by deposition of laterally transported sediments sourced from the Mahalona River Delta. Variations in the amount of laterally transported sediments, as expressed by coarse fraction amounts in pelagic muds and turbidite recurrence rates and cumulative thicknesses, are primarily a function of lake-level induced delta slope instability and delta progradation into the basin. We infer lowest lake-levels between ~29 and 16, a gradual lake level rise between ~16 and 11, and high lake-levels between ~11 and 0 kyr BP. Periods of highest turbidite deposition, ~26 to 24 and ~18 to 16 kyr BP coincide with Heinrich events 2 and 1, respectively. Our lake-level reconstruction therefore supports previous observations based on geochemical hydroclimate proxies of a very dry last glacial and a wet Holocene in the region, and provides new evidence of millennial-scale variations in moisture balance in the IPWP.

Complex geomorphologic assemblage of terrains in association with the banded terrain in Hellas basin, Mars

Hellas basin acts as a major sink for the southern highlands of Mars and is likely to have recorded several episodes of sedimentation and erosion. The north-western part of the basin displays a potentially unique Amazonian landscape domain in the deepest part of Hellas, called “banded terrain”, which is a deposit characterized by an alternation of narrow band shapes and inter-bands displaying a sinuous and relatively smooth surface texture suggesting a viscous flow origin. Here we use high-resolution (HiRISE and CTX) images to assess the geomorphological interaction of the banded terrain with the surrounding geomorphologic domains in the NW interior of Hellas to gain a better understanding of the geological evolution of the region as a whole. Our analysis reveals that the banded terrain is associated with six geomorphologic domains: a central plateau named Alpheus Colles, plain deposits (P1 and P2), reticulate (RT1 and RT2) and honeycomb terrains. Based on the analysis of the geomorphology of these domains and their cross-cutting relationships, we show that no widespread deposition post-dates the formation of the banded terrain, which implies that this domain is the youngest and latest deposit of the interior of Hellas. Therefore, the level of geologic activity in the NW Hellas during the Amazonian appears to have been relatively low and restricted to modification of the landscape through mechanical weathering, aeolian and periglacial processes. Thermophysical data and cross-cutting relationships support hypotheses of modification of the honeycomb terrain via vertical rise of diapirs such as ice diapirism, and the formation of the plain deposits through deposition and remobilization of an ice-rich mantle deposit. Finally, the observed gradual transition between honeycomb and banded terrain suggests that the banded terrain may have covered a larger area of the NW interior of Hellas in the past than previously thought. This has implications on the understanding of the evolution of the deepest part of Hellas.

Twenty years' experience with the Swiss data registry for assisted reproductive medicine: outcomes, key trends and recommendations for improved practice.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY The impact of assisted reproductive technology (ART) on Swiss demography was quantified. From 1993 to 2012 the number of deliveries, including multiples, generated by ART was compared with overall delivery numbers. Swiss experts in ART collaborated in a consensus to increase successful outcomes, to reduce the incidence of complications of ART and to validate recommendations through statistical review of available data. METHODS Data generated between 1993 and 2012 and published by the Federal Office of Statistics (BfS) were compared with the Swiss database on ART (FIVNAT-CH) as organised by the Swiss Society of Reproductive Medicine (SGRM). From these analyses a panel of Swiss experts in ART extracted recommendations to improve current practice, to prevent complications related to ART and to recommend changes in current Swiss legislation dealing with ART. RESULTS Since 1993 the age of women giving birth rose together with the number of women asking for ART. This demographic trend was reflected in a rise in the number of deliveries generated by ART (in 2012: 2.2%) and the proportion of multiple births (in 2012: 17.6%). The outcome of ART was most negatively influenced by the age of the treated patient. The number of retrieved oocytes decisively impacted the likelihood of delivery, the risk of multiple births and the incidence of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome. CONCLUSIONS Optimal ovarian stimulation should be designed for the retrieval of 10 to 15 oocytes per treatment. Swiss legislation should enable and stimulate a policy of elective single embryo transfer to avoid multiple births.

Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

Ocean dynamics, not dust, have controlled equatorial Pacific productivity over the past 500,000 years

Biological productivity in the equatorial Pacific is relatively high compared with other low-latitude regimes, especially east of the dateline, where divergence driven by the trade winds brings nutrient rich waters of the Equatorial Undercurrent to the surface. The equatorial Pacific is one of the three principal high-nutrient low chlorophyll ocean regimes where biological utilization of nitrate and phosphate is limited, in part, by the availability of iron. Throughout most of the equatorial Pacific, upwelling of water from the Equatorial Undercurrent supplies far more dissolved iron than is delivered by dust, by as much as two orders of magnitude. Nevertheless, recent studies have inferred that the greater supply of dust during ice ages stimulated greater utilization of nutrients within the region of upwelling on the equator, thereby contributing to the sequestration of carbon in the ocean interior. Here we present proxy records for dust and for biological productivity over the past 500 ky at three sites spanning the breadth of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to test the dust fertilization hypothesis. Dust supply peaked under glacial conditions, consistent with previous studies, whereas proxies of export production exhibit maxima during ice age terminations. Temporal decoupling between dust supply and biological productivity indicates that other factors, likely involving ocean dynamics, played a greater role than dust in regulating equatorial Pacific productivity.

Vaccines against neosporosis: what can we learn from the past studies?

Neospora caninum is an intracellular apicomplexan parasite, which is a leading cause of abortion in cattle; thus neosporosis represents an important veterinary health problem and is of high economic significance. The parasite can infect cattle via trans-placental transmission from an infected cow to its fetus (vertical transmission), or through the oral route via ingestion of food or water contaminated with oocysts that were previously shed with the feces of a canid definitive host (horizontal transmission). Although vaccination was considered a rational strategy to prevent bovine neosporosis, the only commercialized vaccine (Neoguard®) produced ambiguous results with relatively low efficacy, and was recently removed from the market. Therefore, there is a need to develop an efficient vaccine capable of preventing both, the horizontal transmission through infected food or water to a naïve animal as well as the vertical transmission from infected but clinically asymptomatic dams to the fetus. Different vaccine strategies have been investigated, including the use of live attenuated vaccines, killed parasite lysates, total antigens or antigen fractions from killed parasites, and subunit vaccines. The vast majority of experimental studies were performed in mice, and to a certain extent in gerbils, but there is also a large number of investigations that were conducted in cattle and sheep. However, it is difficult to directly compare these studies due to the high variability of the parameters employed. In this review, we will summarize the recent advances made in vaccine development against N. caninum in cattle and in mice and highlight the most important factors, which are likely to influence the degree of protection mediated by vaccination.

Uppermost Limit, Extent, and Fluctuations of the Timberline and Treeline Ecocline in the Swiss Central Alps during the past 11,500 Years

Pollen and macrofossils were analyzed at two sites above today's treeline (or tree limit) in the Swiss Central Alps (Gouillé Loéré, 2503 m a.s.l., and Lengi Egga, 2557 m a.s.l.) to test two contrasting hypotheses about the natural formation of timberline (the upper limit of closed forest) in the Alps. Our results revealed that Pinus cembra--Larix decidua forests near timberline were rather closed between 9000 and 2500 B.C. (9600-4000 ¹⁴C yr BP), when timberline fluctuations occurred within a belt 100-150 m above today's tree limit. The treeline ecocline above timberline was characterized by the mixed occurrence of tree, shrub, dwarf-shrub, and herbaceous species, but it did not encompass more than 100-150 altitudinal meters. The uppermost limit reached by timberline and treeline during the Holocene was ca. 2420 and 2530 m, respectively, i.e., about 120 to 180 m higher than today. Between 3500 and 2500 B.C. (4700-4000 ¹⁴C yr BP) timberline progressively sank by about 300 m, while treeline was lowered only ca. 100 m. This change led to an enlargement of the treeline-ecocline belt (by ca. 300 m) after 2500 B.C. (4000 ¹⁴C yr BP). Above the treeline ecocline, natural meadows dominated by dwarf shrubs (e.g., Salix herbacea) and herbaceous species (e.g., Helianthemum, Taraxacum, Potentialla, Leontodon t., Cerastium alpinum t., Cirsium spinosissimum, Silene exscapa t., and Saxifraga stellaris) have been present since at least 11,000 cal yr ago. In these meadows tree and tall shrub species (>0.5 m) never played a major role. These results support the conventional hypothesis of a narrow ecocline with rather sharp upper timberline and treeline boundaries and imply that today's treeless alpine communities in the Alps are close to a natural stage. Pollen (percentages and influx), stomata, and charcoal data may be useful for determining whether or not a site was treeless. Nevertheless, a reliable and detailed record of past local vegetation near and above timberline is best achieved through the inclusion of macrofossil analysis.