Are mutans streptococci detected in preschool children a reliable predictive factor for dental caries risk? A systematic review

Research suggests that mutans streptococci play an important role in cariogenesis in children but the usefulness of bacterial testing in risk assessment is unknown. Our objective was to summarize the literature assessing the association of mutans streptococci and dental caries in preschool children, (Pre)Medline (1966-2003), Embase (1980-2003), the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials (2003, issue 3), and reference lists of included studies were searched. All abstracts found by the electronic searches (n = 981) were independently scrutinized by 2 reviewers. Minimal requirements for inclusion were assessment of preschool children without caries at baseline, reporting of mutans streptococci present in saliva or plaque at baseline and assessment of caries presence after a minimum of 6 months of follow-up. Participants' details, test methods, methodological characteristics and findings were extracted by one reviewer and cross-checked by another. Homogeneity was tested using chi2 tests. Results of plaque and saliva testing were pooled separately using a fixed effects model. Methodological quality of reports was low. Out of 9 studies included, data from 3 reports on plaque test assessment alone (n = 300) and from 4 reports on saliva test assessment alone (n = 451) were available for pooled analysis. The pooled risk ratio (95% CI) was 3.85 (2.48-5.96) in studies using plaque tests and 2.11 (1.47-3.02) in those using saliva testing. Presence of mutans streptococci, both in plaque or saliva of young caries-free children, appears to be associated with a considerable increase in caries risk. Lack of adjustment for potential confounders in the original studies, however, limits the extent to which interpretations for practice can be made.

The association of the composite IL-1 genotype with periodontitis progression and/or treatment outcomes: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Genetically transmitted traits such as cytokine gene polymorphisms may accentuate the host inflammatory response to the bacterial challenge and influence susceptibility to periodontitis. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the evidence of an association between the interleukin-1 (IL-1) composite genotype, i.e. presence of the allele 2 in the gene clusters IL-1A-889 and in IL-1B +3953, and periodontitis progression and/or treatment outcomes. Material and Methods: Based on the focused question, a search was conducted for longitudinal clinical trials comparing progression of periodontitis and/or treatment outcomes in IL-1 genotype-positive (carrying allele 2) and IL-1 genotype-negative (not carrying allele 2) subjects. A search in the National Library of Medicine computerized bibliographic database MEDLINE and a manual search were performed. Selection of publications, extraction of data and validity assessment were made independently by two reviewers. RESULTS: The search provided 122 titles of which 11 longitudinal publications were included. The heterogeneity of the data prevented the performance of a meta-analysis. While findings from some publications rejected a possible role of IL-1 composite genotype on progression of periodontitis after various therapies, other reported a prognostic value for disease progression of the positive IL-1 genotype status. When assessed on a multivariate risk assessment model, several publications concluded that the assessment of the IL-1 composite genotype in conjunction with other covariates (e.g. smoking and presence of specific bacteria) may provide additional information on disease progression. The small sample size of the available publications, however, requires caution in the interpretation of the results. CONCLUSION: Based on these findings, (i) there is insufficient evidence to establish if a positive IL-1 genotype status contributes to progression of periodontitis and/or treatment outcomes. Therefore, (ii) results obtained with commercially available tests should be interpreted with caution.

Perspectives on periodontal risk factors

The development of a clinical decision tree based on knowledge about risks and reported outcomes of therapy is a necessity for successful planning and outcome of periodontal therapy. This requires a well-founded knowledge of the disease entity and a broad knowledge of how different risk conditions attribute to periodontitis. The infectious etiology, a complex immune response, and influence from a large number of co-factors are challenging conditions in clinical periodontal risk assessment. The difficult relationship between independent and dependent risk conditions paired with limited information on periodontitis prevalence adds to difficulties in periodontal risk assessment. The current information on periodontitis risk attributed to smoking habits, socio-economic conditions, general health and subjects' self-perception of health, is not comprehensive, and this contributes to limited success in periodontal risk assessment. New models for risk analysis have been advocated. Their utility for the estimation of periodontal risk assessment and prognosis should be tested. The present review addresses several of these issues associated with periodontal risk assessment.

Risk scoring for setting priorities in a monitoring of antimicrobial resistance in meat and meat products

Meat and meat products can be contaminated with different species of bacteria resistant to various antimicrobials. The human health risk of a type of meat or meat product carry by emerging antimicrobial resistance depends on (i) the prevalence of contamination with resistant bacteria, (ii) the human health consequences of an infection with a specific bacterium resistant to a specific antimicrobial and (iii) the consumption volume of a specific product. The objective of this study was to compare the risk for consumers arising from their exposure to antibiotic resistant bacteria from meat of four different types (chicken, pork, beef and veal), distributed in four different product categories (fresh meat, frozen meat, dried raw meat products and heat-treated meat products). A semi-quantitative risk assessment model, evaluating each food chain step, was built in order to get an estimated score for the prevalence of Campylobacter spp., Enterococcus spp. and Escherichia coli in each product category. To assess human health impact, nine combinations of bacterial species and antimicrobial agents were considered based on a published risk profile. The combination of the prevalence at retail, the human health impact and the amount of meat or product consumed, provided the relative proportion of total risk attributed to each category of product, resulting in a high, medium or low human health risk. According to the results of the model, chicken (mostly fresh and frozen meat) contributed 6.7% of the overall risk in the highest category and pork (mostly fresh meat and dried raw meat products) contributed 4.0%. The contribution of beef and veal was of 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. The results were tested and discussed for single parameter changes of the model. This risk assessment was a useful tool for targeting antimicrobial resistance monitoring to those meat product categories where the expected risk for public health was greater.

Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management

Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.

Assessment of metabolic stability using the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) liver S9 fraction

Standard protocols are given for assessing metabolic stability in rainbow trout using the liver S9 fraction. These protocols describe the isolation of S9 fractions from trout livers, evaluation of metabolic stability using a substrate depletion approach, and expression of the result as in vivo intrinsic clearance. Additional guidance is provided on the care and handling of test animals, design and interpretation of preliminary studies, and development of analytical methods. Although initially developed to predict metabolism impacts on chemical accumulation by fish, these procedures can be used to support a broad range of scientific and risk assessment activities including evaluation of emerging chemical contaminants and improved interpretation of toxicity testing results. These protocols have been designed for rainbow trout and can be adapted to other species as long as species-specific considerations are modified accordingly (e.g., fish maintenance and incubation mixture temperature). Rainbow trout is a cold-water species. Protocols for other species (e.g., carp, a warm-water species) can be developed based on these procedures as long as the specific considerations are taken into account.

Efficiency of risk-based vs . random sampling for the monitoring of tetracycline residues in slaughtered calves in Switzerland

In all European Union countries, chemical residues are required to be routinely monitored in meat. Good farming and veterinary practice can prevent the contamination of meat with pharmaceutical substances, resulting in a low detection of drug residues through random sampling. An alternative approach is to target-monitor farms suspected of treating their animals with antimicrobials. The objective of this project was to assess, using a stochastic model, the efficiency of these two sampling strategies. The model integrated data on Swiss livestock as well as expert opinion and results from studies conducted in Switzerland. Risk-based sampling showed an increase in detection efficiency of up to 100% depending on the prevalence of contaminated herds. Sensitivity analysis of this model showed the importance of the accuracy of prior assumptions for conducting risk-based sampling. The resources gained by changing from random to risk-based sampling should be transferred to improving the quality of prior information.

MiR-205 is progressively down-regulated in lymph node metastasis but fails as a prognostic biomarker in high-risk prostate cancer

The treatment of high-risk prostate cancer (HRPCa) is a tremendous challenge for uro-oncologists. The identification of predictive moleculobiological markers allowing risk assessment of lymph node metastasis and systemic progression is essential in establishing effective treatment. In the current study, we investigate the prognostic potential of miR-205 in HRPCa study and validation cohorts, setting defined clinical endpoints for both. We demonstrate miR-205 to be significantly down-regulated in over 70% of the HRPCa samples analysed and that reconstitution of miR-205 causes inhibition of proliferation and invasiveness in prostate cancer (PCa) cell lines. Additionally, miR-205 is increasingly down-regulated in lymph node metastases compared to the primary tumour indicating that miR-205 plays a role in migration of PCa cells from the original location into extraprostatic tissue. Nevertheless, down-regulation of miR-205 in primary PCa was not correlated to the synchronous presence of metastasis and failed to predict the outcome for HRPCa patients. Moreover, we found a tendency for miR-205 up-regulation to correlate with an adverse outcome of PCa patients suggesting a pivotal role of miR-205 in tumourigenesis. Overall, we showed that miR-205 is involved in the development and metastasis of PCa, but failed to work as a useful clinical biomarker in HRPCa. These findings might have implications for the use of miR-205 as a prognostic or therapeutic target in HRPCa.

Pathology working group review of histopathologic specimens from three laboratory studies of diclofenac in trout.

While the pathology peer review/pathology working group (PWG) model has long been used in mammalian toxicologic pathology to ensure the accuracy, consistency, and objectivity of histopathology data, application of this paradigm to ecotoxicological studies has thus far been limited. In the current project, the PWG approach was used to evaluate histopathologic sections of gills, liver, kidney, and/or intestines from three previously published studies of diclofenac in trout, among which there was substantial variation in the reported histopathologic findings. The main objectives of this review process were to investigate and potentially reconcile these interstudy differences, and based on the results, to establish an appropriate no observed effect concentration (NOEC). Following a complete examination of all histologic sections and original diagnoses by a single experienced fish pathologist (pathology peer review), a two-day PWG session was conducted to allow members of a four-person expert panel to determine the extent of treatment-related findings in each of the three trout studies. The PWG was performed according to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Pesticide Regulation (PR) 94-5 (EPA Pesticide Regulation, 1994). In accordance with standard procedures, the PWG review was conducted by the non-voting chairperson in a manner intended to minimize bias, and thus during the evaluation, the four voting panelists were unaware of the treatment group status of individual fish and the original diagnoses associated with the histologic sections. Based on the results of this review, findings related to diclofenac exposure included minimal to slightly increased thickening of the gill filament tips in fish exposed to the highest concentration tested (1,000 μg/L), plus a previously undiagnosed finding, decreased hepatic glycogen, which also occurred at the 1,000 μg/L dose level. The panel found little evidence to support other reported effects of diclofenac in trout, and thus the overall NOEC was determined to be >320 μg/L. By consensus, the PWG panel was able to identify diagnostic inconsistencies among and within the three prior studies; therefore this exercise demonstrated the value of the pathology peer review/PWG approach for assessing the reliability of histopathology results that may be used by regulatory agencies for risk assessment.

A fuzzy risk attitude classification based on prospect theory

Traditional methods do not actually measure peoples’ risk attitude naturally and precisely. Therefore, a fuzzy risk attitude classification method is developed. Since the prospect theory is usually considered as an effective model of decision making, the personalized parameters in prospect theory are firstly fuzzified to distinguish people with different risk attitudes, and then a fuzzy classification database schema is applied to calculate the exact value of risk value attitude and risk be- havior attitude. Finally, by applying a two-hierarchical clas- sification model, the precise value of synthetical risk attitude can be acquired.

A Stratified Model for Psychosis Prediction in Clinical Practice

Objective: Impaired cognition is an important dimension in psychosis and its at-risk states. Research on the value of impaired cognition for psychosis prediction in at-risk samples, however, mainly relies on study-specific sample means of neurocognitive tests, which unlike widely available general test norms are difficult to translate into clinical practice. The aim of this study was to explore the combined predictive value of at-risk criteria and neurocognitive deficits according to test norms with a risk stratification approach. Method: Potential predictors of psychosis (neurocognitive deficits and at-risk criteria) over 24 months were investigated in 97 at-risk patients. Results: The final prediction model included (1) at-risk criteria (attenuated psychotic symptoms plus subjective cognitive disturbances) and (2) a processing speed deficit (digit symbol test). The model was stratified into 4 risk classes with hazard rates between 0.0 (both predictors absent) and 1.29 (both predictors present). Conclusions: The combination of a processing speed deficit and at-risk criteria provides an optimized stratified risk assessment. Based on neurocognitive test norms, the validity of our proposed 3 risk classes could easily be examined in independent at-risk samples and, pending positive validation results, our approach could easily be applied in clinical practice in the future.

A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

Prognostic significance of multidetector CT in normotensive patients with pulmonary embolism: results of the protect study.

BACKGROUND In patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), rapid and accurate risk assessment is paramount in selecting the appropriate treatment strategy. The prognostic value of right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) assessed by multidetector CT (MDCT) in normotensive patients with PE has lacked adequate validation. METHODS The study defined MDCT-assessed RVD as a ratio of the RV to the left ventricle short axis diameter greater than 0.9. Outcomes assessed through 30 days after the diagnosis of PE included all-cause mortality and 'complicated course', which consisted of death from any cause, haemodynamic collapse or recurrent PE. RESULTS MDCT detected RVD in 533 (63%) of the 848 enrolled patients. Those with RVD on MDCT more frequently had echocardiographic RVD (31%) than those without RVD on MDCT (9.2%) (p<0.001). Patients with RVD on MDCT had significantly higher brain natriuretic peptide (269±447 vs 180±457 pg/ml, p<0.001) and troponin (0.10±0.43 vs 0.03±0.24 ng/ml, p=0.001) levels in comparison with those without RVD on MDCT. During follow-up, death occurred in 25 patients with and in 13 patients without RVD on MDCT (4.7% vs 4.3%; p=0.93). Those with and those without RVD on MDCT had a similar frequency of complicated course (3.9% vs 2.3%; p=0.30). CONCLUSIONS The PROgnosTic valuE of CT study showed a relationship between RVD assessed by MDCT and other markers of cardiac dysfunction around the time of PE diagnosis, but did not demonstrate an association between MDCT-RVD and prognosis.

Prediction of arrhythmic events by Wedensky modulation in patients with coronary artery disease.

PRINCIPLES Prediction of arrhythmic events (AEs) has gained importance with the availability of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs), but is still imprecise. This study evaluated the innovative Wedensky modulation index (WMI) as predictor of AEs. METHODS In this prospective cohort, 179 patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) referred for AE risk assessment underwent baseline evaluation including measurement of R-/T-wave WMI (WMI(RT)) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Two endpoints were assessed 3 years after the baseline evaluation: sudden cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP1) and any cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP2). Associations between baseline predictors (WMI(RT) and LVEF) and endpoints were evaluated in regression models. RESULTS Only three patients were lost to follow-up. EP1 and EP2 occurred in 24 and 27 patients, respectively. WMI(RT) (odds ratio [OR] per 1 point increase for EP1 20.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8-221.4, p = 0.014, and for EP2 73.3, 95% CI 6.6-817.7, p <0.001) and LVEF (OR per 1% increase for EP1 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99, p = 0.013, and for EP2 0.93, 95% CI 0.89-0.97, p = 0.002) were significantly associated with both endpoints. In bivariable regression controlled for LVEF, WMI(RT) was independently associated with EP1 (p = 0.047) and EP2 (p = 0.007). The combination of WMI(RT) ≥0.60 and LVEF ≤30% resulted in a positive predictive value of 36% for EP1 and 50% for EP2. CONCLUSIONS WMI(RT) is a significant predictor of AEs independent of LVEF and has potential to improve AE risk prediction in CAD patients. However, WMI(RT) should be evaluated in larger and independent samples before recommendations for clinical routine can be made.

In vitro-ex vivo model systems for nanosafety assessment

Engineered nanomaterials have unique and novel properties enabling wide-ranging new applications in nearly all fields of research. As these new properties have raised concerns about potential adverse effects for the environment and human health, extensive efforts are underway to define reliable, cost- and time-effective, as well as mechanistic-based testing strategies to replace the current method of animal testing, which is still the most prevalent model used for the risk assessment of chemicals. Current approaches for nanomaterials follow this line. The aim of this review is to explore and qualify the relevance of new in vitro and ex vivo models in (nano)material safety assessment, a crucial prerequisite for translation into applications.