Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Family models of independence/interdependence and their intergenerational similarity in Germany, Turkey, and India

Family change theory suggests three ideal-typical family models characterized by different combinations of emotional and material interdependencies in the family. Its major proposition is that in economically developing countries with a collectivistic background a family model of emotional interdependence emerges from a family model of complete interdependence. The current study aims to identify and compare patterns of family-related value orientations related to family change theory across three cultures and two generations. Overall, N = 919 dyads of mothers and their adolescent children from Germany, Turkey, and India participated in the study. Three clusters were identified representing the family models of independence, interdependence, and emotional interdependence, respectively. Especially the identification of an emotionally interdependent value pattern using a person-oriented approach is an important step in the empirical validation of family change theory. The preference for the three family models differed across as well as within cultures and generations according to theoretical predictions. Dyadic analyses pointed to substantial intergenerational similarities and also to differences in family models, reflecting both cultural continuity as well as change in family-related value orientations.

Values of children and family models of adolescents: An eleven-culture study

Starting from Kagitcibasi's (2007) conceptualization of family models, this study compared N = 2961 adolescents' values across eleven cultures and explored whether patterns of values were related to the three proposed family models through cluster analyses. Three clusters with value profiles corresponding to the family models of interdependence, emotional interdependence, and independence were identified on the cultural as well as on the individual level. Furthermore, individual-level clusters corresponded to culture-level clusters in terms of individual cluster membership. The results largely support Kagitcibasi's proposition of changing family models and demonstrate their representation as individual-level value profiles across cultures.

Representation via Probabilities: Models of Probabilistic Modeling

How do probabilistic models represent their targets and how do they allow us to learn about them? The answer to this question depends on a number of details, in particular on the meaning of the probabilities involved. To classify the options, a minimalist conception of representation (Su\'arez 2004) is adopted: Modelers devise substitutes (``sources'') of their targets and investigate them to infer something about the target. Probabilistic models allow us to infer probabilities about the target from probabilities about the source. This leads to a framework in which we can systematically distinguish between different models of probabilistic modeling. I develop a fully Bayesian view of probabilistic modeling, but I argue that, as an alternative, Bayesian degrees of belief about the target may be derived from ontic probabilities about the source. Remarkably, some accounts of ontic probabilities can avoid problems if they are supposed to apply to sources only.

ANALYTICAL MODELS OF EXOPLANETARY ATMOSPHERES. I. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS VIA THE SHALLOW WATER SYSTEM

Within the context of exoplanetary atmospheres, we present a comprehensive linear analysis of forced, damped, magnetized shallow water systems, exploring the effects of dimensionality, geometry (Cartesian, pseudo-spherical, and spherical), rotation, magnetic tension, and hydrodynamic and magnetic sources of friction. Across a broad range of conditions, we find that the key governing equation for atmospheres and quantum harmonic oscillators are identical, even when forcing (stellar irradiation), sources of friction (molecular viscosity, Rayleigh drag, and magnetic drag), and magnetic tension are included. The global atmospheric structure is largely controlled by a single key parameter that involves the Rossby and Prandtl numbers. This near-universality breaks down when either molecular viscosity or magnetic drag acts non-uniformly across latitude or a poloidal magnetic field is present, suggesting that these effects will introduce qualitative changes to the familiar chevron-shaped feature witnessed in simulations of atmospheric circulation. We also find that hydrodynamic and magnetic sources of friction have dissimilar phase signatures and affect the flow in fundamentally different ways, implying that using Rayleigh drag to mimic magnetic drag is inaccurate. We exhaustively lay down the theoretical formalism (dispersion relations, governing equations, and time-dependent wave solutions) for a broad suite of models. In all situations, we derive the steady state of an atmosphere, which is relevant to interpreting infrared phase and eclipse maps of exoplanetary atmospheres. We elucidate a pinching effect that confines the atmospheric structure to be near the equator. Our suite of analytical models may be used to develop decisively physical intuition and as a reference point for three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of atmospheric circulation.

Analytical Models of Exoplanetary Atmospheres. II. Radiative Transfer via the Two-Stream Approximation

We present a comprehensive analytical study of radiative transfer using the method of moments and include the effects of non-isotropic scattering in the coherent limit. Within this unified formalism, we derive the governing equations and solutions describing two-stream radiative transfer (which approximates the passage of radiation as a pair of outgoing and incoming fluxes), flux-limited diffusion (which describes radiative transfer in the deep interior) and solutions for the temperature-pressure profiles. Generally, the problem is mathematically under-determined unless a set of closures (Eddington coefficients) is specified. We demonstrate that the hemispheric (or hemi-isotropic) closure naturally derives from the radiative transfer equation if energy conservation is obeyed, while the Eddington closure produces spurious enhancements of both reflected light and thermal emission. We concoct recipes for implementing two-stream radiative transfer in stand-alone numerical calculations and general circulation models. We use our two-stream solutions to construct toy models of the runaway greenhouse effect. We present a new solution for temperature-pressure profiles with a non-constant optical opacity and elucidate the effects of non-isotropic scattering in the optical and infrared. We derive generalized expressions for the spherical and Bond albedos and the photon deposition depth. We demonstrate that the value of the optical depth corresponding to the photosphere is not always 2/3 (Milne's solution) and depends on a combination of stellar irradiation, internal heat and the properties of scattering both in optical and infrared. Finally, we derive generalized expressions for the total, net, outgoing and incoming fluxes in the convective regime.

Image-based vs. mesh-based statistical appearance models of the human femur: Implications for finite element simulations.

Statistical appearance models have recently been introduced in bone mechanics to investigate bone geometry and mechanical properties in population studies. The establishment of accurate anatomical correspondences is a critical aspect for the construction of reliable models. Depending on the representation of a bone as an image or a mesh, correspondences are detected using image registration or mesh morphing. The objective of this study was to compare image-based and mesh-based statistical appearance models of the femur for finite element (FE) simulations. To this aim, (i) we compared correspondence detection methods on bone surface and in bone volume; (ii) we created an image-based and a mesh-based statistical appearance models from 130 images, which we validated using compactness, representation and generalization, and we analyzed the FE results on 50 recreated bones vs. original bones; (iii) we created 1000 new instances, and we compared the quality of the FE meshes. Results showed that the image-based approach was more accurate in volume correspondence detection and quality of FE meshes, whereas the mesh-based approach was more accurate for surface correspondence detection and model compactness. Based on our results, we recommend the use of image-based statistical appearance models for FE simulations of the femur.

Size-dependent accumulation of particles in lysosomes modulates dendritic cell function through impaired antigen degradation.

INTRODUCTION Nanosized particles may enable therapeutic modulation of immune responses by targeting dendritic cell (DC) networks in accessible organs such as the lung. To date, however, the effects of nanoparticles on DC function and downstream immune responses remain poorly understood. METHODS Bone marrow-derived DCs (BMDCs) were exposed in vitro to 20 or 1,000 nm polystyrene (PS) particles. Particle uptake kinetics, cell surface marker expression, soluble protein antigen uptake and degradation, as well as in vitro CD4(+) T-cell proliferation and cytokine production were analyzed by flow cytometry. In addition, co-localization of particles within the lysosomal compartment, lysosomal permeability, and endoplasmic reticulum stress were analyzed. RESULTS The frequency of PS particle-positive CD11c(+)/CD11b(+) BMDCs reached an early plateau after 20 minutes and was significantly higher for 20 nm than for 1,000 nm PS particles at all time-points analyzed. PS particles did not alter cell viability or modify expression of the surface markers CD11b, CD11c, MHC class II, CD40, and CD86. Although particle exposure did not modulate antigen uptake, 20 nm PS particles decreased the capacity of BMDCs to degrade soluble antigen, without affecting their ability to induce antigen-specific CD4(+) T-cell proliferation. Co-localization studies between PS particles and lysosomes using laser scanning confocal microscopy detected a significantly higher frequency of co-localized 20 nm particles as compared with their 1,000 nm counterparts. Neither size of PS particle caused lysosomal leakage, expression of endoplasmic reticulum stress gene markers, or changes in cytokines profiles. CONCLUSION These data indicate that although supposedly inert PS nanoparticles did not induce DC activation or alteration in CD4(+) T-cell stimulating capacity, 20 nm (but not 1,000 nm) PS particles may reduce antigen degradation through interference in the lysosomal compartment. These findings emphasize the importance of performing in-depth analysis of DC function when developing novel approaches for immune modulation with nanoparticles.

Functional correction in mouse models of muscular dystrophy using exon-skipping tricyclo-DNA oligomers

Antisense oligonucleotides (AONs) hold promise for therapeutic correction of many genetic diseases via exon skipping, and the first AON-based drugs have entered clinical trials for neuromuscular disorders1, 2. However, despite advances in AON chemistry and design, systemic use of AONs is limited because of poor tissue uptake, and recent clinical reports confirm that sufficient therapeutic efficacy has not yet been achieved. Here we present a new class of AONs made of tricyclo-DNA (tcDNA), which displays unique pharmacological properties and unprecedented uptake by many tissues after systemic administration. We demonstrate these properties in two mouse models of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), a neurogenetic disease typically caused by frame-shifting deletions or nonsense mutations in the gene encoding dystrophin3, 4 and characterized by progressive muscle weakness, cardiomyopathy, respiratory failure5 and neurocognitive impairment6. Although current naked AONs do not enter the heart or cross the blood-brain barrier to any substantial extent, we show that systemic delivery of tcDNA-AONs promotes a high degree of rescue of dystrophin expression in skeletal muscles, the heart and, to a lesser extent, the brain. Our results demonstrate for the first time a physiological improvement of cardio-respiratory functions and a correction of behavioral features in DMD model mice. This makes tcDNA-AON chemistry particularly attractive as a potential future therapy for patients with DMD and other neuromuscular disorders or with other diseases that are eligible for exon-skipping approaches requiring whole-body treatment.