87 resultados para Combination of short term inflation forecast models
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IMPORTANCE International guidelines advocate a 7- to 14-day course of systemic glucocorticoid therapy in acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, the optimal dose and duration are unknown. OBJECTIVE To investigate whether a short-term (5 days) systemic glucocorticoid treatment in patients with COPD exacerbation is noninferior to conventional (14 days) treatment in clinical outcome and whether it decreases the exposure to steroids. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS REDUCE: (Reduction in the Use of Corticosteroids in Exacerbated COPD), a randomized, noninferiority multicenter trial in 5 Swiss teaching hospitals, enrolling 314 patients presenting to the emergency department with acute COPD exacerbation, past or present smokers (≥20 pack-years) without a history of asthma, from March 2006 through February 2011. INTERVENTIONS Treatment with 40 mg of prednisone daily for either 5 or 14 days in a placebo-controlled, double-blind fashion. The predefined noninferiority criterion was an absolute increase in exacerbations of at most 15%, translating to a critical hazard ratio of 1.515 for a reference event rate of 50%. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE Time to next exacerbation within 180 days. RESULTS Of 314 randomized patients, 289 (92%) of whom were admitted to the hospital, 311 were included in the intention-to-treat analysis and 296 in the per-protocol analysis. Hazard ratios for the short-term vs conventional treatment group were 0.95 (90% CI, 0.70 to 1.29; P = .006 for noninferiority) in the intention-to-treat analysis and 0.93 (90% CI, 0.68 to 1.26; P = .005 for noninferiority) in the per-protocol analysis, meeting our noninferiority criterion. In the short-term group, 56 patients (35.9%) reached the primary end point; 57 (36.8%) in the conventional group. Estimates of reexacerbation rates within 180 days were 37.2% (95% CI, 29.5% to 44.9%) in the short-term; 38.4% (95% CI, 30.6% to 46.3%) in the conventional, with a difference of -1.2% (95% CI, -12.2% to 9.8%) between the short-term and the conventional. Among patients with a reexacerbation, the median time to event was 43.5 days (interquartile range [IQR], 13 to 118) in the short-term and 29 days (IQR, 16 to 85) in the conventional. There was no difference between groups in time to death, the combined end point of exacerbation, death, or both and recovery of lung function. In the conventional group, mean cumulative prednisone dose was significantly higher (793 mg [95% CI, 710 to 876 mg] vs 379 mg [95% CI, 311 to 446 mg], P < .001), but treatment-associated adverse reactions, including hyperglycemia and hypertension, did not occur more frequently. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In patients presenting to the emergency department with acute exacerbations of COPD, 5-day treatment with systemic glucocorticoids was noninferior to 14-day treatment with regard to reexacerbation within 6 months of follow-up but significantly reduced glucocorticoid exposure. These findings support the use of a 5-day glucocorticoid treatment in acute exacerbations of COPD. TRIAL REGISTRATION isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN19646069.
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Background: Total knee replacement is the gold standard treatment for patients suffering from advanced symptomatic knee osteoarthritis. The main goals of knee prosthetics are pain reduction and restoration of knee motion. The new prostheses on the market such as the bi-cruciate stabilized Journey knee implant, promise a reconstruction of total physiological function of the knee with physiological range of motion and therefore high patient satisfaction. Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the patient-based Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) outcome after total knee replacement with new physiological bi-cruciate stabilized Journey knee prosthesis. Study Design: Prospective, consecutive case-series. Patients: Ninety nine patients, who received bi-cruciate stabilized Journey total knee prosthesis between January 1st 2006 and May 31st 2012, were included in the study. A single surgeon operated all patients. There were 61.1% females and the overall average age was 68 years (range 41-83 years). Left knee was replaced in 55.6%. Methods: The patients filled in KOO’s questionnaire pre- and 1 year postoperative. Range of motion (ROM) was studied preoperatively and at 1-year follow-ups. The pre- and postoperative KOOS subscores and ROM were compared using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results: There are significant improvements of all KOOS subscores. Ninety percent of patients have reached the minimum clinically relevant 10 points in symptoms, 94.5% in pain, 94.5% in activities of daily living, 84.9% in sport and recreation, and 90% in knee related quality of life. Postoperative, the average passive ROM was 131° (range 110-145°) and the average active ROM 122° (range 105-135°). The highest correlation coefficients ROM and the KOOS were observed for the activity and pain subscores. Very low or no correlation was seen for the sport subscore. Conclusions: Bi-cruciate stabilized knee prosthetic offers a solid outcome 1 year postoperative based on the results measured with the KOOS evaluation questionnaire. The Patients showed a generalized improvement in all domains measured in the KOOS of minimally 35, and up to over 52 points, what can be described as statistically significant. Patients described the level of functionality close to double compared to the preoperative status.
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PURPOSE In patients with schizophrenia, premorbid psychosocial adjustment is an important predictor of functional outcome. We studied functional outcome in young clinical high-risk (CHR) patients and how this was predicted by their childhood to adolescence premorbid adjustment. METHODS In all, 245 young help-seeking CHR patients were assessed with the Premorbid Adjustment Scale, the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS) and the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument (SPI-A). The SIPS assesses positive, negative, disorganised, general symptoms, and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), the SPI-A self-experienced basic symptoms; they were carried out at baseline, at 9-month and 18-month follow-up. Transitions to psychosis were identified. In the hierarchical linear model, associations between premorbid adjustment, background data, symptoms, transitions to psychosis and GAF scores were analysed. RESULTS During the 18-month follow-up, GAF scores improved significantly, and the proportion of patients with poor functioning decreased from 74% to 37%. Poor premorbid adjustment, single marital status, poor work status, and symptoms were associated with low baseline GAF scores. Low GAF scores were predicted by poor premorbid adjustment, negative, positive and basic symptoms, and poor baseline work status. The association between premorbid adjustment and follow-up GAF scores remained significant, even when baseline GAF and transition to psychosis were included in the model. CONCLUSION A great majority of help-seeking CHR patients suffer from deficits in their functioning. In CHR patients, premorbid psychosocial adjustment, baseline positive, negative, basic symptoms and poor working/schooling situation predict poor short-term functional outcome. These aspects should be taken into account when acute intervention and long-term rehabilitation for improving outcome in CHR patients are carried out.
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We tested whether OPAHs were formed during 19-wk incubation of a fertile soil at optimum moisture in the dark. The soil had initial mean (±s.e., n = 3) concentrations of 22 ± 1.7 (Σ28PAHs) and 4.2 ± 0.34 μg g−1 (Σ14OPAHs). After 19 wk, individual PAH and OPAH concentrations had decreased by up to 14 and 37%, respectively. Decreases in % of initial concentrations were positively correlated with their KOW values for PAHs (r = 0.48, p = 0.022) and 9 OPAHs (r = 0.78, p = 0.013) but negatively, albeit not significantly, for 5 OPAHs (r = −0.75, p = 0.145) suggesting net formation of some OPAHs. The latter was supported by significantly increasing 1-indanone/fluorene ratios while the other OPAH to parent-PAH ratios remained constant or tended to increase. We conclude that OPAHs are formed in soils during microbial turnover of PAHs in a short time.
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Due to the ongoing trend towards increased product variety, fast-moving consumer goods such as food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals are typically manufactured through so-called make-and-pack processes. These processes consist of a make stage, a pack stage, and intermediate storage facilities that decouple these two stages. In operations scheduling, complex technological constraints must be considered, e.g., non-identical parallel processing units, sequence-dependent changeovers, batch splitting, no-wait restrictions, material transfer times, minimum storage times, and finite storage capacity. The short-term scheduling problem is to compute a production schedule such that a given demand for products is fulfilled, all technological constraints are met, and the production makespan is minimised. A production schedule typically comprises 500–1500 operations. Due to the problem size and complexity of the technological constraints, the performance of known mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulations and heuristic approaches is often insufficient. We present a hybrid method consisting of three phases. First, the set of operations is divided into several subsets. Second, these subsets are iteratively scheduled using a generic and flexible MILP formulation. Third, a novel critical path-based improvement procedure is applied to the resulting schedule. We develop several strategies for the integration of the MILP model into this heuristic framework. Using these strategies, high-quality feasible solutions to large-scale instances can be obtained within reasonable CPU times using standard optimisation software. We have applied the proposed hybrid method to a set of industrial problem instances and found that the method outperforms state-of-the-art methods.
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BACKGROUND Recently, it has been suggested that the type of stent used in primary percutaneous coronary interventions (pPCI) might impact upon the outcomes of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Indeed, drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce neointimal hyperplasia compared to bare-metal stents (BMS). Moreover, the later generation DES, due to its biocompatible polymer coatings and stent design, allows for greater deliverability, improved endothelial healing and therefore less restenosis and thrombus generation. However, data on the safety and performance of DES in large cohorts of AMI is still limited. AIM To compare the early outcome of DES vs. BMS in AMI patients. METHODS This was a prospective, multicentre analysis containing patients from 64 hospitals in Switzerland with AMI undergoing pPCI between 2005 and 2013. The primary endpoint was in-hospital all-cause death, whereas the secondary endpoint included a composite measure of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) of death, reinfarction, and cerebrovascular event. RESULTS Of 20,464 patients with a primary diagnosis of AMI and enrolled to the AMIS Plus registry, 15,026 were referred for pPCI and 13,442 received stent implantation. 10,094 patients were implanted with DES and 2,260 with BMS. The overall in-hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients with DES compared to those with BMS implantation (2.6% vs. 7.1%,p < 0.001). The overall in-hospital MACCE after DES was similarly lower compared to BMS (3.5% vs. 7.6%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for all confounding covariables, DES remained an independent predictor for lower in-hospital mortality (OR 0.51,95% CI 0.40-0.67, p < 0.001). Since groups differed as regards to baseline characteristics and pharmacological treatment, we performed a propensity score matching (PSM) to limit potential biases. Even after the PSM, DES implantation remained independently associated with a reduced risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.76, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS In unselected patients from a nationwide, real-world cohort, we found DES, compared to BMS, was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and MACCE. The identification of optimal treatment strategies of patients with AMI needs further randomised evaluation; however, our findings suggest a potential benefit with DES.
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In a cohort study among 2751 members (71.5% females) of the German and Swiss RLS patient organizations changes in restless legs syndrome (RLS) severity over time was assessed and the impact on quality of life, sleep quality and depressive symptoms was analysed. A standard set of scales (RLS severity scale IRLS, SF-36, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index and the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) in mailed questionnaires was repeatedly used to assess RLS severity and health status over time and a 7-day diary once to assess short-term variations. A clinically relevant change of the RLS severity was defined by a change of at least 5 points on the IRLS scale. During 36 months follow-up minimal improvement of RLS severity between assessments was observed. Men consistently reported higher severity scores. RLS severity increased with age reaching a plateau in the age group 45-54 years. During 3 years 60.2% of the participants had no relevant (±5 points) change in RLS severity. RLS worsening was significantly related to an increase in depressive symptoms and a decrease in sleep quality and quality of life. The short-term variation showed distinctive circadian patterns with rhythm magnitudes strongly related to RLS severity. The majority of participants had a stable course of severe RLS over three years. An increase in RLS severity was accompanied by a small to moderate negative, a decrease by a small positive influence on quality of life, depressive symptoms and sleep quality.
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Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of psychotherapeutic interventions assume that specific techniques are used in treatments, which are responsible for changes in the client's symptoms. This assumption also holds true for meta-analyses, where evidence for specific interventions and techniques is compiled. However, it has also been argued that different treatments share important techniques and that an upcoming consensus about useful treatment strategies is leading to a greater integration of treatments. This makes assumptions about the effectiveness of specific interventions ingredients questionable if the shared (common) techniques are more often used in interventions than are the unique techniques. This study investigated the unique or shared techniques in RCTs of cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) and short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy (STPP). Psychotherapeutic techniques were coded from 42 masked treatment descriptions of RCTs in the field of depression (1979-2010). CBT techniques were often used in studies identified as either CBT or STPP. However, STPP techniques were only used in STPP-identified studies. Empirical clustering of treatment descriptions did not confirm the original distinction of CBT versus STPP, but instead showed substantial heterogeneity within both approaches. Extraction of psychotherapeutic techniques from the treatment descriptions is feasible and could be used as a content-based approach to classify treatments in systematic reviews and meta-analyses.
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BACKGROUND The main goals of the standard treatment for advanced symptomatic knee osteoarthritis, total knee arthroplasty (TKA), are pain reduction and restoration of knee motion.The aim of this study was to analyse the outcome of the patient-based Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS), and the surgeon-based Knee Society Score (KSS) and its Knee Score (KS) and Knee Functional Score (KFS) components after (TKA) using the Journey knee prosthesis, and to assess the correlation of these scores with range of motion (ROM). METHODS In a prospective case series study between August 1st 2008 and May 31st 2011, 99 patients, all operated by a single surgeon, received Journey bicruciate stabilized total knee prostheses. The female/male ratio was 53/34, the mean patient age at surgery was 68 years (range 41-83 years), and the left/right knee ratio was 55/44. The KOOS, range of motion, and KS and KFS were obtained preoperatively and at 1-year follow-up. The pre- and postoperative levels of the outcome measures were compared using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Correlation between ROM and patient outcomes was analysed with the Spearman coefficient. RESULTS All KOOS subscores improved significantly. Ninety percent of patients improved by at least the minimum clinically relevant difference of 10 points in stiffness and other symptoms, 94.5% in pain, 94.5% in activities of daily living, 84.9% in sports and recreation, and 90% in knee-related quality of life. The mean passive and active ROM improved from 122.4° (range 90-145°) and 120.4° (range 80-145°) preoperatively to 129.4° (range 90-145°) and 127.1° (range 100-145°) postoperatively. The highest correlation coefficients for ROM and KOOS were observed for the activity and pain subscores. Very low or no correlation was seen for the sport subscore.There was a significant and clinically relevant improvement of KSS (preop/postop 112.2/174.5 points), and its KS (preop/postop 45.6/86.8 points) and KFS (preop/postop 66.6/87.8 points) components. CONCLUSIONS The Journey bicruciate stabilized knee prosthesis showed good 1-year postoperative results in terms of both functional and patient-based outcome. However, higher knee ROM correlates only moderately with patient-based outcome, implying that functionality afforded by the Journey bicruciate TKA is not equivalent to patient satisfaction.
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Since no single experimental or modeling technique provides data that allow a description of transport processes in clays and clay minerals at all relevant scales, several complementary approaches have to be combined to understand and explain the interplay between transport relevant phenomena. In this paper molecular dynamics simulations (MD) were used to investigate the mobility of water in the interlayer of montmorillonite (Mt), and to estimate the influence of mineral surfaces and interlayer ions on the water diffusion. Random Walk (RW) simulations based on a simplified representation of pore space in Mt were used to estimate and understand the effect of the arrangement of Mt particles on the meso- to macroscopic diffusivity of water. These theoretical calculations were complemented with quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS) measurements of aqueous diffusion in Mt with two pseudo-layers of water performed at four significantly different energy resolutions (i.e. observation times). The size of the interlayer and the size of Mt particles are two characteristic dimensions which determine the time dependent behavior of water diffusion in Mt. MD simulations show that at very short time scales water dynamics has the characteristic features of an oscillatory motion in the cage formed by neighbors in the first coordination shell. At longer time scales, the interaction of water with the surface determines the water dynamics, and the effect of confinement on the overall water mobility within the interlayer becomes evident. At time scales corresponding to an average water displacement equivalent to the average size of Mt particles, the effects of tortuosity are observed in the meso- to macroscopic pore scale simulations. Consistent with the picture obtained in the simulations, the QENS data can be described using a (local) 3D diffusion at short observation times, whereas at sufficiently long observation times a 2D diffusive motion is clearly observed. The effects of tortuosity measured in macroscopic tracer diffusion experiments are in qualitative agreement with RW simulations. By using experimental data to calibrate molecular and mesoscopic theoretical models, a consistent description of water mobility in clay minerals from the molecular to the macroscopic scale can be achieved. In turn, simulations help in choosing optimal conditions for the experimental measurements and the data interpretation. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.