Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets

Here we present a study of the 11 yr sunspot cycle's imprint on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using three recently developed gridded upper-air data sets that extend back to the early twentieth century. We find a robust response of the tropospheric late-wintertime circulation to the sunspot cycle, independent from the data set. This response is particularly significant over Europe, although results show that it is not directly related to a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulation; instead, it reveals a significant connection to the more meridional Eurasian pattern (EU). The magnitude of mean seasonal temperature changes over the European land areas locally exceeds 1 K in the lower troposphere over a sunspot cycle. We also analyse surface data to address the question whether the solar signal over Europe is temporally stable for a longer 250 yr period. The results increase our confidence in the existence of an influence of the 11 yr cycle on the European climate, but the signal is much weaker in the first half of the period compared to the second half. The last solar minimum (2005 to 2010), which was not included in our analysis, shows anomalies that are consistent with our statistical results for earlier solar minima.

Estimating and quantifying uncertainties on level sets using the Vorob'ev expectation and deviation with Gaussian process models

Several methods based on Kriging have recently been proposed for calculating a probability of failure involving costly-to-evaluate functions. A closely related problem is to estimate the set of inputs leading to a response exceeding a given threshold. Now, estimating such a level set—and not solely its volume—and quantifying uncertainties on it are not straightforward. Here we use notions from random set theory to obtain an estimate of the level set, together with a quantification of estimation uncertainty. We give explicit formulae in the Gaussian process set-up and provide a consistency result. We then illustrate how space-filling versus adaptive design strategies may sequentially reduce level set estimation uncertainty.

Self-Reported Capabilities Among Young Male Adults in Switzerland: Translation and Psychometric Evaluation of a German, French and Italian Version of a Closed Survey Instrument

There is a shortage of empirical applications of the capability approach that employ closed survey instruments to assess self-reported capabilities. However, for those few instruments that have been designed and administered through surveys until now, no psychometric properties (reliability, validity, and factor structure) were reported. The purpose of this study is the assessment of the psychometric properties of three new language versions (German, French, and Italian) of an established (English) set of eight self-reported capability items. The set of items is taken from a previously published British study by Anand and van Hees (J Soc Econ 35(2):268–284, 2006). Our sample consists of 17,152 young male adults aged 18–25 years from the three major language regions in Switzerland. The results indicate good reliability of the three language versions. The results from the exploratory factor analyses suggest a one-dimensional factor structure for seven domain specific items. Furthermore, the results from multiple regression analyses suggest that a global summary item on overall capabilities represents a measurement alternative to the set of seven domain specific capability items. Finally, the results confirm the applicability of the closed capability instrument in a large scale survey questionnaire and represent the first attempt to measure self-reported capabilities in Switzerland.

Effect of pressure-controlled intermittent coronary sinus occlusion (PICSO) on myocardial ischaemia and reperfusion in a closed-chest porcine model

AIMS To investigate a pressure-controlled intermittent coronary sinus occlusion (PICSO) system in an ischaemia/reperfusion model. METHODS AND RESULTS We randomly assigned 18 pigs subjected to 60 minutes ischaemia by left anterior descending (LAD) coronary artery balloon occlusion to PICSO (n=12, groups A and B) or to controls (n=6, group C). PICSO started 10 minutes before (group A), or 10 minutes after (group B) reperfusion and was maintained for 180 minutes. A continuous drop of distal LAD pressure was observed in group C. At 180 minutes of reperfusion, LAD diastolic pressure was significantly lower in group C compared to groups A and B (p=0.02). LAD mean pressure was significantly less than the systemic arterial mean pressure in group C (p=0.02), and the diastolic flow slope was flat, compared to groups A and B (p=0.03). IgG and IgM antibody deposition was significantly higher in ischaemic compared to non-ischaemic tissue in group C (p<0.05). Significantly more haemorrhagic lesions were seen in the ischaemic myocardium of group C, compared to groups A and B (p=0.002). The necrotic area differed non-significantly among groups. CONCLUSIONS PICSO was safe and effective in improving coronary perfusion pressure and reducing antibody deposition consistent with reduced microvascular obstruction and ischaemia/reperfusion injury.

A Closed-Form, Consistent and Robust Solution to Uncalibrated Photometric Stereo Via Local Diffuse Reflectance Maxima

Images of an object under different illumination are known to provide strong cues about the object surface. A mathematical formalization of how to recover the normal map of such a surface leads to the so-called uncalibrated photometric stereo problem. In the simplest instance, this problem can be reduced to the task of identifying only three parameters: the so-called generalized bas-relief (GBR) ambiguity. The challenge is to find additional general assumptions about the object, that identify these parameters uniquely. Current approaches are not consistent, i.e., they provide different solutions when run multiple times on the same data. To address this limitation, we propose exploiting local diffuse reflectance (LDR) maxima, i.e., points in the scene where the normal vector is parallel to the illumination direction (see Fig. 1). We demonstrate several noteworthy properties of these maxima: a closed-form solution, computational efficiency and GBR consistency. An LDR maximum yields a simple closed-form solution corresponding to a semi-circle in the GBR parameters space (see Fig. 2); because as few as two diffuse maxima in different images identify a unique solution, the identification of the GBR parameters can be achieved very efficiently; finally, the algorithm is consistent as it always returns the same solution given the same data. Our algorithm is also remarkably robust: It can obtain an accurate estimate of the GBR parameters even with extremely high levels of outliers in the detected maxima (up to 80 % of the observations). The method is validated on real data and achieves state-of-the-art results.

Low rank subspace clustering (LRSC)

We consider the problem of fitting a union of subspaces to a collection of data points drawn from one or more subspaces and corrupted by noise and/or gross errors. We pose this problem as a non-convex optimization problem, where the goal is to decompose the corrupted data matrix as the sum of a clean and self-expressive dictionary plus a matrix of noise and/or gross errors. By self-expressive we mean a dictionary whose atoms can be expressed as linear combinations of themselves with low-rank coefficients. In the case of noisy data, our key contribution is to show that this non-convex matrix decomposition problem can be solved in closed form from the SVD of the noisy data matrix. The solution involves a novel polynomial thresholding operator on the singular values of the data matrix, which requires minimal shrinkage. For one subspace, a particular case of our framework leads to classical PCA, which requires no shrinkage. For multiple subspaces, the low-rank coefficients obtained by our framework can be used to construct a data affinity matrix from which the clustering of the data according to the subspaces can be obtained by spectral clustering. In the case of data corrupted by gross errors, we solve the problem using an alternating minimization approach, which combines our polynomial thresholding operator with the more traditional shrinkage-thresholding operator. Experiments on motion segmentation and face clustering show that our framework performs on par with state-of-the-art techniques at a reduced computational cost.

Local Stereology of Tensors of Convex Bodies

In this paper, we present local stereological estimators of Minkowski tensors defined on convex bodies in ℝ d . Special cases cover a number of well-known local stereological estimators of volume and surface area in ℝ3, but the general set-up also provides new local stereological estimators of various types of centres of gravity and tensors of rank two. Rank two tensors can be represented as ellipsoids and contain information about shape and orientation. The performance of some of the estimators of centres of gravity and volume tensors of rank two is investigated by simulation.

Applications of random set theory in econometrics

In recent years, the econometrics literature has shown a growing interest in the study of partially identified models, in which the object of economic and statistical interest is a set rather than a point. The characterization of this set and the development of consistent estimators and inference procedures for it with desirable properties are the main goals of partial identification analysis. This review introduces the fundamental tools of the theory of random sets, which brings together elements of topology, convex geometry, and probability theory to develop a coherent mathematical framework to analyze random elements whose realizations are sets. It then elucidates how these tools have been fruitfully applied in econometrics to reach the goals of partial identification analysis.

Europeanization in parliament and in the press

Europeanization challenges national democratic systems. As part and parcel of the broader internationalization of politics, Europeanization is associated with a shift from policymaking within majoritarian, elected representative bodies towards technocratic decisions among non-majoritarian and non-elected bodies (Kohler-Koch and Rittberger 2008, Lavenex 2013). It is thus said to weaken the influence of citizens and parliaments on the making of policies and to undermine democratic collective identity (Lavenex 2013, Schimmelfennig 2010). The weakening of national parliaments has been referred to as “de-parliamentarisation” (Goetz and Meyer-Sahling 2008) and has nurtured a broader debate regarding the democratic deficit in the EU. While not being a member of the EU, Switzerland has not remained unaffected by these changes. As discussed in the contribution by Fischer and Sciarini, state executive actors take the lead in Switzerland's European policy. They are responsible for the conduct of international negotiations, they own the treaty making power, and it is up to them to decide whether they wish to launch a negotiation with the EU. In addition, the strong take-it or leave-it character of Europeanized acts limits the room for manoeuver of the parliamentary body also in the ratification phase. Among the public, the rejection of the treaty on the European constitution has definitely closed the era of “permissive consensus” (Hooghe and Marks 2009). However, the process of European unification remains far remote from the European public. In Switzerland, the strongly administrative character of international legislation hinders public discussion (Vögeli 2007). In such a context, the media may serve as cue for the public: By delivering information about the extent and nature of Europeanized policymaking, the media enable citizens to form their own opinions and to hold their representatives accountable. In this sense media coverage may not only be considered an indicator of the information delivered to the public, but it may also enhance the democratic legitimacy of Europeanized policymaking (for a similar argument, see Tresch and Jochum 2005). While the previous contributions to this debate have examined the Europeanization of Swiss (primary and secondary) legislation, we take a closer look at two additional domestic arenas that are both supposed to be under pressure due to Europeanization: The parliament and the media. To that end, we rely on data gathered in a research project that two of us carried out in the context of the NCCR Democracy.1 While this project was primarily interested in the mediatization of decision-making processes in Switzerland, it also investigated the conditional role played by internationalization/Europeanization. For our present purposes, we shall exploit the two data-sets that were developed as part of a study of the political agenda-setting power of the media (Sciarini and Tresch 2012, 2013, Tresch et al. 2013): A data-set on issue attention in parliamentary interventions (initiatives, motions, postulates,2 interpellations and questions) and a data-set on issue attention in articles from the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ). The data covers the years 1995 to 2003 and the coding of issues followed the classification system developed in the “Policy Agendas Project” (Baumgartner and Jones 1993).