Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

Analysis of patient flows for orthopedic procedures using small area analysis in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: In general cantons regulate and control the Swiss health service system; patient flows within and between cantons are thereby partially disregarded. This paper develops an alternative spatial model, based upon the construction of orthopedic hospital service areas (HSAOs), and introduces indices for the analysis of patient streams in order to identify areas, irrespective of canton, with diverse characteristics, importance, needs, or demands. METHODS: HSAOs were constructed using orthopedic discharge data. Patient streams between the HSAOs were analysed by calculating three indices: the localization index (% local residents discharged locally), the netindex (the ratio of discharges of nonlocal incoming residents to outgoing local residents), and the market share index (% of local resident discharges of all discharges in local hospitals). RESULTS: The 85 orthopedic HSAOs show a median localization index of 60.8%, a market share index of 75.1%, and 30% of HSAOs have a positive netindex. Insurance class of bed, admission type, and patient age are partially but significantly associated with those indicators. A trend to more centrally provided health services can be observed not only in large urban HSAOs such as Geneva, Bern, Basel, and Zurich, but also in HSAOs in mountain sport areas such as Sion, Davos, or St.Moritz. Furthermore, elderly and emergency patients are more frequently treated locally than younger people or those having elective procedures. CONCLUSION: The division of Switzerland into HSAOs provides an alternative spatial model for analysing and describing patient streams for health service utilization. Because this small area model allows more in-depth analysis of patient streams both within and between cantons, it may improve support and planning of resource allocation of in-patient care in the Swiss healthcare system.

Anti-myelin antibodies in clinically isolated syndrome indicate the risk of multiple sclerosis in a Swiss cohort

OBJECTIVES: In patients with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), the time interval to convert to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) is highly variable. Individual and geographical prognostic factors remain to be determined. Whether anti-myelin antibodies may predict the risk of conversion to CDMS in Swiss CIS patients of the canton Berne was the subject of the study. METHODS: Anti-myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein and anti-myelin basic protein antibodies were determined prospectively in patients admitted to our department. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 12 months, none of nine antibody-negative, but 22 of 30 antibody-positive patients had progressed to CDMS. Beta-Interferon treatment delayed the time to conversion from a mean of 7.4 to 10.9 months. CONCLUSIONS: In a Swiss cohort, antibody-negative CIS patients have a favorable short-term prognosis, and antibody-positive patients benefit from early treatment.

Urinary iodine concentration during pregnancy in an area of unstable dietary iodine intake in Switzerland

We prospectively investigated urinary iodine concentration (UIC) in pregnant women and in female, non-pregnant controls in the canton of Berne, Switzerland, in 1992. Mean UIC of pregnant women [205 +/- 151 microg iodine/g creatinine (microg l/g Cr); no. = 153] steadily decreased from the first (236 +/- 180 microg l/g Cr; no. = 31) to the third trimester (183 +/- 111 microg l/g Cr, p < 0.0001; no. = 66) and differed significantly from that of the control group (91 +/- 37 microg l/g Cr, p < 0.0001; no. = 119). UIC increased 2.6-fold from levels indicating mild iodine deficiency in controls to the first trimester, demonstrating that high UIC during early gestation does not necessarily reflect a sufficient iodine supply to the overall population. Pregnancy is accompanied by important alterations in the regulation of thyroid function and iodine metabolism. Increased renal iodine clearance during pregnancy may explain increased UIC during early gestation, whereas increased thyroidal iodine clearance as well as the iodine shift from the maternal circulation to the growing fetal-placental unit, which both tend to lower the circulating serum levels of inorganic iodide, probably are the causes of the continuous decrease of UIC over the course of pregnancy. Mean UIC in our control group, as well as in one parallel and several consecutive investigations in the same region in the 1990s, was found to be below the actually recommended threshold, indicating a new tendency towards mild to moderate iodine deficiency. As salt is the main source of dietary iodine in Switzerland, its iodine concentration was therefore increased nationwide in 1998 for the fourth time, following increases in 1922, 1965 and 1980.

[Knowledge, attitude and reservations of medical students about organ transplantation: results of a survey during the first year of study]

AIM: Establish a list of first year medical students' attitudes, doubts, and knowledge in the fields of organ transplantation and donation. METHOD: Anonymized questionnaire handed out to students during class lectures. RESULTS: 183 questionnaires were distributed and 117 returned (participation: 64%). The average age of the students was 21.6 +/- 2.7 years (range 18 to 38 years); the sample included 71 women (60.7%) and 48 men (39.3%). Only 2 students (2%) were not interested in the subject of organ donation. The students knew very little of the legal aspects of organ donation and 1/4 of them thought there was even a Federal law regarding organ transplantation. When asked if they knew whether a law existed in the Canton of Berne, 44% replied yes, but only 24 (20%) knew that this is contradictory. There was no gender difference in the answers to these question. From 57 students (48%) 246 individual comments on doubts and concerns were analyzed. In this respect, the students mainly questioned whether the donor was truly dead when donation took place (n = 48), if illegal transplantation could be eliminated (n = 44) and if transplantation was truly necessary (n = 43). Some also mentioned religious/ethical doubts (n = 42). In regard to organ donation by a living individual, 27 students were concerned about the health of this donor. 20 students had doubts regarding the pressure possibly applied by family members and friends and as many voiced doubts in regard to premature diagnosis of brain death of potential donors. Only 2 students were concerned about the post-mortem presentation. 45 students (48%) indicated discomfort with the donation of certain organs. They ranked the kidney as the first organ to donate, followed by the pancreas, heart, cornea, intestine, lung and liver. CONCLUSION: The interest in organ donation and transplantation is already strong in fist year medical students in the pre-clinical stage. However, differences from lay public are not readably detectable at this stage of medical training. Adequate information could influence future physicians in their mediatory role.

[Working under pressure]

From medical view the main problems of investigation and convicts are in particular in the range of the drugs and alcohol illnesses to see transferable diseases (HIV, hepatitis B - C and tuberculosis) and psychological illnesses. These complex diseases require a close meshed and intensive support of each individual patient and represent actually the main problem during an arrest. The development of the health service could address the new requirements making possible cost-conscious acting in handling with resources in the health service. In the canton Berne 957197 inhabitants live on a total area of 5959 km2. The police and military management operates the regional and district prisons as well as the transportation service for prisoners in the canton Berne for prisoners. The canton Berne has altogether 327 places. Since May 1971 persons from the regional and district prison and the penal institutions needing hospitalisation can be accepted. In the University hospital Berne on a specially equipped guard station and be cared for their medical problems. The prisoners profit in such a way from the entire range of the university facilities.

Low prevalence of atrial fibrillation in asymptomatic adults in Geneva, Switzerland

Aims To determine the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a population-based sample of adults. Methods and results Between January 2005 and December 2007 individuals aged >/=50 years, residents of the city of Geneva, who had participated in a previous random survey were invited for follow-up examination. AF was assessed on a single resting 6-lead ECG. Reported prevalences were standardized for the age distribution of Canton Geneva. Overall participation was 72.8%. Twenty-nine cases of AF (22 men) were diagnosed among 3285 subjects (1696 men). The crude prevalence of AF (95% CI) was 0.88% (0.86, 0.90) overall, but higher in men [1.30% (1.26, 1.34)] than in women [0.44% (0.41, 0.47)]. The age-standardized AF prevalence was slightly higher [overall: 0.94% (0.91, 0.97), men: 1.23% (1.19, 1.27), women: 0.54% (0.47, 0.61)]. AF prevalence increased with age in both sexes. A 'history of suspected arterial embolism' (brain or legs) was higher in the AF cases (10.3 vs. 3.3%; P = 0.03). Conclusion This population-based survey of a general Swiss population indicates that the prevalence of AF remains below 1%. These results are less alarming than those from previous studies based on patients seeking medical care.

The SAKK cancer-specific geriatric assessment (C-SGA): a pilot study of a brief tool for clinical decision-making in older cancer patients

BACKGROUND Recommendations from international task forces on geriatric assessment emphasize the need for research including validation of cancer-specific geriatric assessment (C-SGA) tools in oncological settings. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of the SAKK Cancer-Specific Geriatric Assessment (C-SGA) in clinical practice. METHODS A cross sectional study of cancer patients >=65 years old (N = 51) with pathologically confirmed cancer presenting for initiation of chemotherapy treatment (07/01/2009-03/31/2011) at two oncology departments in Swiss canton hospitals: Kantonsspital Graubunden (KSGR N = 25), Kantonsspital St. Gallen (KSSG N = 26). Data was collected using three instruments, the SAKK C-SGA plus physician and patient evaluation forms. The SAKK C-SGA includes six measures covering five geriatric assessment domains (comorbidity, function, psychosocial, nutrition, cognition) using a mix of medical record abstraction (MRA) and patient interview. Five individual domains and one overall SAKK C-SGA score were calculated and dichotomized as below/above literature-based cut-offs. The SAKK C-SGA was evaluated by: patient and physician estimated time to complete, ease of completing, and difficult or unanswered questions. RESULTS Time to complete the patient questionnaire was considered acceptable by almost all (>=96%) patients and physicians. Patients reported slightly shorter times to complete the questionnaire than physicians (17.33 +/- 7.34 vs. 20.59 +/- 6.53 minutes, p = 0.02). Both groups rated the patient questionnaire as easy/fairly easy to complete (91% vs. 84% respectively, p = 0.14) with few difficult or unanswered questions. The MRA took on average 8.32 +/- 4.72 minutes to complete. Physicians (100%) considered time to complete MRA acceptable, 96% rated it as easy/fairly easy to complete. Individual study site populations differed on health-related characteristics (excellent/good physician-rated general health KSGR 71% vs. KSSG 32%, p = 0.007). The overall mean C-SGA score was 2.4 +/- 1.12. Patients at KSGR had lower C-SGA scores (2.00 +/- 1.19 vs. 2.81 +/- 0.90, p = 0.009) and a smaller proportion (28% vs.65%, p = 0.008) was above the C-SGA cut-off score compared to KSSG. CONCLUSIONS These results suggest the SAKK C-SGA is a feasible practical tool for use in clinical practice. It demonstrated discriminative ability based on objective geriatric assessment measures, but additional investigations on use for clinical decision-making are warranted. The SAKK C-SGA also provides important usable domain information for intervention to optimize outcomes in older cancer patients.

HIV infection disrupts the sympatric host-pathogen relationship in human tuberculosis

The phylogeographic population structure of Mycobacterium tuberculosis suggests local adaptation to sympatric human populations. We hypothesized that HIV infection, which induces immunodeficiency, will alter the sympatric relationship between M. tuberculosis and its human host. To test this hypothesis, we performed a nine-year nation-wide molecular-epidemiological study of HIV-infected and HIV-negative patients with tuberculosis (TB) between 2000 and 2008 in Switzerland. We analyzed 518 TB patients of whom 112 (21.6%) were HIV-infected and 233 (45.0%) were born in Europe. We found that among European-born TB patients, recent transmission was more likely to occur in sympatric compared to allopatric host-pathogen combinations (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 7.5, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.21-infinity, p = 0.03). HIV infection was significantly associated with TB caused by an allopatric (as opposed to sympatric) M. tuberculosis lineage (OR 7.0, 95% CI 2.5-19.1, p<0.0001). This association remained when adjusting for frequent travelling, contact with foreigners, age, sex, and country of birth (adjusted OR 5.6, 95% CI 1.5-20.8, p = 0.01). Moreover, it became stronger with greater immunosuppression as defined by CD4 T-cell depletion and was not the result of increased social mixing in HIV-infected patients. Our observation was replicated in a second independent panel of 440 M. tuberculosis strains collected during a population-based study in the Canton of Bern between 1991 and 2011. In summary, these findings support a model for TB in which the stable relationship between the human host and its locally adapted M. tuberculosis is disrupted by HIV infection.

Rechtsmittel gegen Entscheide des juge d'appui bei der internationalen Schiedsgerichtsbarkeit der Schweiz

The author examines whether and by which means the decisions handed down by the State judge giving his support to the arbitral proceeding (juge d'appui) may be appealed. Every relevant Article in the PILA (Private International Law Act) is addressed and analyzed in this regard (Art. 179(2) and (3), Art. 180(3), Art. 183(2), Art. 184(3) and Art. 185) by reference to the present legal doctrine and case law. Concerning the stages of appeal, the view is held that by direct or analogous application of Art. 356(2) CPC (Civil Procedure Code) the juge d'appui has jurisdiction as the sole instance of the Canton to render decisions in support of the arbitral tribunal. On the federal level however, the parties shall have the right to appeal against these decisions by filing a civil law appeal before the Swiss Federal Supreme Court, with the exception of most decisions given by juge d'appui within the meaning of Art. 180(3) PILA. As to this federal appeal, it is established that the case law of the Swiss Federal Supreme Court under the FTA (Act on the Federal Tribunal) indicates the Court's inclination to qualify both negative and positive decisions issued by the juge d'appui as final decisions in terms of Art. 90 FTA. In reference to the upcoming revision of the PILA's 12th Chapter the author concludes that the legislator might implement some clarifications in the current legal framework. It seems particularly advisable to ensure that all relevant Articles in the PILA regarding decisions of the juge d'appui explicitly reference to Art. 356(2) CPC. Moreover, the author is of the opinion that it would also be expedient to specify the

Multiple osteosclerotic lesions in an Iron Age skull from Switzerland (320 - 250 BC) - An unusual case

The single Hochdorf burial was found in 1887 during construction work in the Canton of Lucerne, Switzerland. It dates from between 320 and 250 BC. The calvarium, the left half of the pelvis and the left femur were preserved. The finding shows an unusual bony alteration of the skull. The aim of this study was to obtain a differential diagnosis and to examine the skull using various methods. Sex and age were determined anthropologically. Radiological examinations were performed with plain X-ray imaging and a multislice computed tomography (CT) scanner. For histological analysis, samples of the lesion were taken. The pathological processing included staining after fixation, decalcification, and paraffin embedding. Hard-cut sections were also prepared. The individual was female. The age at death was between 30 and 50 years. There is an intensely calcified bone proliferation at the right side of the os frontalis. Plain X-ray and CT imaging showed a large sclerotic lesion in the area of the right temple with a partly bulging appearance. The inner boundary of the lesion shows multi-edged irregularities. There is a diffuse thickening of the right side. In the left skull vault, there is a mix of sclerotic areas and areas which appear to be normal with a clear differentiation between tabula interna, diploë and tabula externa. Histology showed mature organised bone tissue. Radiological and histological findings favour a benign condition. Differential diagnoses comprise osteomas which may occur, for example, in the setting of hereditary adenomatous polyposis coli related to Gardner syndrome.

Potentials and constraints of modeling for transdisciplinary co-producing strategies for sustainable water governance

Both climate change and socio-economic development will significantly modify the supply and consumption of water in future. Consequently, regional development has to face aggravation of existing or emergence of new conflicts of interest. In this context, transdisciplinary co-production of knowledge is considered as an important means for coping with these challenges. Accordingly, the MontanAqua project aims at developing strategies for more sustainable water management in the study area Crans-Montana-Sierre (Switzerland) in a transdisciplinary way. It strives for co-producing system, target and transformation knowledge among researchers, policy makers, public administration and civil society organizations. The research process basically consisted of the following steps: First, the current water situation in the study region was investigated. How much water is available? How much water is being used? How are decisions on water distribution and use taken? Second, participatory scenario workshops were conducted in order to identify the stakeholders’ visions of regional development. Third, the water situation in 2050 was simulated by modeling the evolution of water resources and water use and by reflecting on the institutional aspects. These steps laid ground for jointly assessing the consequences of the stakeholders’ visions of development in view of scientific data regarding governance, availability and use of water in the region as well as developing necessary transformation knowledge. During all of these steps researchers have collaborated with stakeholders in the support group RegiEau. The RegiEau group consists of key representatives of owners, managers, users, and pressure groups related to water and landscape: representatives of the communes (mostly the presidents), the canton (administration and parliament), water management associations, agriculture, viticulture, hydropower, tourism, and landscape protection. The aim of the talk is to explore potentials and constraints of scientific modeling of water availability and use within the process of transdisciplinary co-producing strategies for more sustainable water governance.