Implementing fisher Black's simple discounting rule

We propose a simple implementation of Black’s (1988) elegant rule for discounting uncertain future cash flows. Black’s rule avoids the thorny problem of estimating an appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate. Instead, the rule calls for discounting conditional mean cash flows at appropriate riskless interest rates. Our contribution in this article is to describe and illustrate a method of estimating the conditional mean cash flows called for in Black’s rule. The method is quite flexible with respect to the types of information available concerning the distributions of future cash flows. We argue that this approach to computing present values offers a theoretically sound and generally feasible addition to the toolbox of financial managers.

Electroelasticity of charged black branes

We present the first-order corrected dynamics of fluid branes carrying higher-form charge by obtaining the general form of their equations of motion to pole-dipole order in the absence of external forces. Assuming linear response theory, we characterize the corresponding effective theory of stationary bent charged (an)isotropic fluid branes in terms of two sets of response coefficients, the Young modulus and the piezoelectric moduli. We subsequently find large classes of examples in gravity of this effective theory, by constructing stationary strained charged black brane solutions to first order in a derivative expansion. Using solution generating techniques and bent neutral black branes as a seed solution, we obtain a class of charged black brane geometries carrying smeared Maxwell charge in Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton gravity. In the specific case of ten-dimensional space-time we furthermore use T-duality to generate bent black branes with higher-form charge, including smeared D-branes of type II string theory. By subsequently measuring the bending moment and the electric dipole moment which these geometries acquire due to the strain, we uncover that their form is captured by classical electroelasticity theory. In particular, we find that the Young modulus and the piezoelectric moduli of our strained charged black brane solutions are parameterized by a total of 4 response coefficients, both for the isotropic as well as anisotropic cases.

Evaluation of a new six degrees of freedom couch for radiation therapy

Purpose: The aim of this work is to evaluate the geometric accuracy of a prerelease version of a new six degrees of freedom (6DoF) couch. Additionally, a quality assurance method for 6DoF couches is proposed. Methods: The main principle of the performance tests was to request a known shift for the 6DoF couch and to compare this requested shift with the actually applied shift by independently measuring the applied shift using different methods (graph paper, laser, inclinometer, and imaging system). The performance of each of the six axes was tested separately as well as in combination with the other axes. Functional cases as well as realistic clinical cases were analyzed. The tests were performed without a couch load and with a couch load of up to 200 kg and shifts in the range between −4 and +4 cm for the translational axes and between −3° and +3° for the rotational axes were applied. The quality assurance method of the new 6DoF couch was performed using a simple cube phantom and the imaging system. Results: The deviations (mean ± one standard deviation) accumulated over all performance tests between the requested shifts and the measurements of the applied shifts were −0.01 ± 0.02, 0.01 ± 0.02, and 0.01 ± 0.02 cm for the longitudinal, lateral, and vertical axes, respectively. The corresponding values for the three rotational axes couch rotation, pitch, and roll were 0.03° ± 0.06°, −0.04° ± 0.12°, and −0.01° ± 0.08°, respectively. There was no difference found between the tests with and without a couch load of up to 200 kg. Conclusions: The new 6DoF couch is able to apply requested shifts with high accuracy. It has the potential to be used for treatment techniques with the highest demands in patient setup accuracy such as those needed in stereotactic treatments. Shifts can be applied efficiently and automatically. Daily quality assurance of the 6DoF couch can be performed in an easy and efficient way. Long-term stability has to be evaluated in further tests.

Dental Caries and Microbiota in Children with Black Stain and Non-discoloured Dental Plaque

Aim: We aimed to assess caries experience and microbiota in systemically healthy children with black stain (BS) and non-discoloured plaque. Methods: Forty-six children with BS and 47 counterparts with non-discoloured plaque aged 7.9 ± 1.3 years were clinically examined. Dental caries was scored using WHO criteria. Samples of BS and non-discoloured dental plaque were collected from tooth surfaces. The DNA of the samples was extracted and real-time PCR was performed to determine the total number of bacteria and the species Streptococcus mutans, S. sobrinus, Lactobacillus sp., Actinomyces naeslundii, Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Prevotella intermedia and Fusobacterium nucleatum. Results: Children with BS had lower DMFT (p = 0.013), lower DT values (p = 0.005) and a tendency to lower caries prevalence (p = 0.061) than children with non-discoloured plaque. Plaque samples of the BS group contained higher numbers of A. naeslundii (p = 0.005) and lower numbers of F. nucleatum (p = 0.001) and Lactobacillus sp. (p = 0.001) compared to the non-discoloured plaque samples of the control group. Comparing the children with BS and non-discoloured plaque, higher counts for A. naeslundii (p = 0.013) were observed in caries-free children with BS while in caries-affected children with BS, lower counts of F. nucleatum (p = 0.007) were found. Counts of Lactobacillus sp. were higher in non-discoloured plaque samples than in BS of caries-free and caries-affected children. Conclusion: Results suggest that the different microbial composition of BS might be associated with the lower caries experience in affected subjects. The role of black-pigmented bacteria associated with periodontitis needs further studies. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Vegetation and environmental changes in Northern Anatolia between 134 and 119 ka recorded in Black Sea sediments

This multiproxy study on SE Black Sea sediments provides the first detailed reconstruction of vegetation and environmental history of Northern Anatolia between 134 and 119 ka. Here, the glacial–interglacial transition is characterized by several short-lived alternating cold and warm events preceding a meltwater pulse (~ 130.4–131.7 ka). The latter is reconstructed as a cold arid period correlated to Heinrich event 11. The initial warming is evidenced at ~ 130.4 ka by increased primary productivity in the Black Sea, disappearance of ice-rafted detritus, and spreading of oaks in Anatolia. A Younger Dryas-type event is not identifiable. The Eemian vegetation succession corresponds to the main climatic phases in Europe: i) the Quercus–Juniperus phase (128.7–126.4 ka) indicates a dry continental climate; ii) the Ostrya–Corylus–Quercus–Carpinus phase (126.4–122.9 ka) suggests warm summers, mild winters, and high year-round precipitation; iii) the Fagus–Carpinus phase (122.9–119.5 ka) indicates cooling and high precipitation; and iv) increasing Pinus at ~ 121 ka marks the onset of cooler/drier conditions. Generally, pollen reconstructions suggest altitudinal/latitudinal migrations of vegetation belts in Northern Anatolia during the Eemian caused by increased transport of moisture. The evidence for the wide distribution of Fagus around the Black Sea contrasts with the European records and is likely related to climatic and genetic factors.

Eemian and Holocene sea-surface conditions in the southern Black Sea: organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst record from core 22-GC3

In order to compare the sea-surface conditions in the Black Sea during the Holocene and Eemian, sapropelic parts of marine core 22-GC3 (42°13.53′N/36°29.55′E, 838 m water depth) were studied for organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst content. The record shows a change from freshwater/brackish assemblages (Pyxidinopsis psilata, Spiniferites cruciformis, and Caspidinium rugosum) to more marine assemblages (Lingulodinium machaerophorum and Spiniferites ramosus complex) during each interglacial, due to the inflow of saline Mediterranean water. The lacustrine–marine transitions in 22-GC3 occurred at ~ 8.3 cal kyr BP during the early Holocene and ~ 128 kyr BP during the early Eemian, slightly later compared to the onset of interglacial conditions on the adjacent land. Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages reveal higher sea-surface salinity (~ 28–30) (e.g. Spiniferites pachydermus, Bitectatodinium tepikiense, and Spiniferites mirabilis) around ~ 126.5–121 kyr BP in comparison to the Holocene (~ 15–20) as well as relatively high sea-surface temperature (e.g. Tuberculodinium vancampoae, S. pachydermus, and S. mirabilis) especially at ~ 127.6–125.3 kyr BP. Establishment of high sea-surface salinity during the Eemian correlates very well with reconstructed relatively high global sea-level and is explained as a combined effect of increased Mediterranean supply and high temperatures at the beginning of the last interglacial. The observed changes in the dinocyst record highlight the importance of nutrients for the composition of the Eemian and Holocene dinocyst assemblages.

New Freedom through Medical Devices Based on the Global System for Mobile Communications: A Prospective Survey of 620 Users of the Swiss Limmex Emergency Wristwatch-An Original Study from Switzerland

About 500,000 elderly people in Switzerland suffer a fall each year. Thus medical attention and help are essential for these people, who mostly live alone without a caregiver. Only 3% of people aged over 65 in Switzerland use an emergency system. Personal telehealth devices allow patients to receive enough information about the appropriate treatment, as well as followup with their doctors and reports of any emergency, in the absence of any caregiver. This increases their quality of life in a cost-effective fashion. "Limmex"-a new medical emergency watch-was launched in Switzerland in 2011 and has been a great commercial success. In this paper, we give a brief review of this watch technology, along with the results of a survey of 620 users conducted by the Department of Emergency Medicine in Bern.

The FReedom from Ischemic Events-New Dimensions for Survival (FRIENDS) registry: design of a prospective cohort study of patients with advanced peripheral artery disease.

BACKGROUND Advanced lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD), whether presenting as acute limb ischemia (ALI) or chronic critical limb ischemia (CLI), is associated with high rates of cardiovascular ischemic events, amputation, and death. Past research has focused on strategies of revascularization, but few data are available that prospectively evaluate the impact of key process of care factors (spanning pre-admission, acute hospitalization, and post-discharge) that might contribute to improving short and long-term health outcomes. METHODS/DESIGN The FRIENDS registry is designed to prospectively evaluate a range of patient and health system care delivery factors that might serve as future targets for efforts to improve limb and systemic outcomes for patients with ALI or CLI. This hypothesis-driven registry was designed to evaluate the contributions of: (i) pre-hospital limb ischemia symptom duration, (ii) use of leg revascularization strategies, and (iii) use of risk-reduction pharmacotherapies, as pre-specified factors that may affect amputation-free survival. Sequential patients would be included at an index "vascular specialist-defined" ALI or CLI episode, and patients excluded only for non-vascular etiologies of limb threat. Data including baseline demographics, functional status, co-morbidities, pre-hospital time segments, and use of medical therapies; hospital-based use of revascularization strategies, time segments, and pharmacotherapies; and rates of systemic ischemic events (e.g., myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization, and death) and limb ischemic events (e.g., hospitalization for revascularization or amputation) will be recorded during a minimum of one year follow-up. DISCUSSION The FRIENDS registry is designed to evaluate the potential impact of key factors that may contribute to adverse outcomes for patients with ALI or CLI. Definition of new "health system-based" therapeutic targets could then become the focus of future interventional clinical trials for individuals with advanced PAD.

Is a black eye a useful sign of facial fractures in patients with minor head injuries? A retrospective analysis in a level I trauma centre over 10 years

Orbital blunt trauma is common, and the diagnosis of a fracture should be made by computed tomographic (CT) scan. However, this will expose patients to ionising radiation. Our objective was to identify clinical predictors of orbital fracture, in particular the presence of a black eye, to minimise unnecessary exposure to radiation. A 10-year retrospective study was made of the medical records of all patients with minor head trauma who presented with one or two black eyes to our emergency department between May 2000 and April 2010. Each of the patients had a CT scan, was over 16 years old, and had a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) of 13-15. The primary outcome was whether the black eye was a valuable predictor of a fracture. Accompanying clinical signs were considered as a secondary outcome. A total of 1676 patients (mean (SD) age 51 (22) years) and minor head trauma with either one or two black eyes were included. In 1144 the CT scan showed a fracture of the maxillofacial skeleton, which gave an incidence of 68.3% in whom a black eye was the obvious symptom. Specificity for facial fractures was particularly high for other clinical signs, such as diminished skin sensation (specificity 96.4%), diplopia or occulomotility disorders (89.3%), fracture steps (99.8%), epistaxis (95.5%), subconjunctival haemorrhage (90.4%), and emphysema (99.6%). Sensitivity for the same signs ranged from 10.8% to 22.2%. The most striking fact was that 68.3% of all patients with a black eye had an underlying fracture. We therefore conclude that a CT scan should be recommended for every patient with minor head injury who presents with a black eye.