Choosing a random distribution with prescribed risks

We describe several simulation algorithms that yield random probability distributions with given values of risk measures. In case of vanilla risk measures, the algorithms involve combining and transforming random cumulative distribution functions or random Lorenz curves obtained by simulating rather general random probability distributions on the unit interval. A new algorithm based on the simulation of a weighted barycentres array is suggested to generate random probability distributions with a given value of the spectral risk measure.

Multiasset Derivatives and Joint Distributions of Asset Prices

Several of multiasset derivatives like basket options or options on the weighted maximum of assets exhibit the property that their prices determine uniquely the underlying asset distribution. Related to that the question how to retrieve this distributions from the corresponding derivatives quotes will be discussed. On the contrary, the prices of exchange options do not uniquely determine the underlying distributions of asset prices and the extent of this non-uniqueness can be characterised. The discussion is related to a geometric interpretation of multiasset derivatives as support functions of convex sets. Following this, various symmetry properties for basket, maximum and exchange options are discussed alongside with their geometric interpretations and some decomposition results for more general payoff functions.

Idiopathic ventricular outflow tract arrhythmias from the great cardiac vein: Challenges and risks of catheter ablation

INTRODUCTION Catheter ablation for idiopathic ventricular arrhythmia is well established but epicardial origin, proximity to coronary arteries, and limited accessibility may complicate ablation from the venous system in particular from the great cardiac vein (GCV). METHODS Between April 2009 and October 2010 14 patients (56 ± 15 years; 9 male) out of a total group of 117 patients with idiopathic outflow tract tachycardias were included undergoing ablation for idiopathic VT or premature ventricular contractions (PVC) originating from GCV. All patients in whom the PVC arose from the GCV were subject to the study. In these patients angiography of the left coronary system was performed with the ablation catheter at the site of earliest activation. RESULTS Successful ablation was performed in 6/14 (43%) and long-term success was achieved in 5/14 (36%) patients. In 4/14 patients (28.6%) ablation was not performed. In another 4 patients (26.7%), ablation did not abolish the PVC/VT. In the majority, the anatomical proximity to the left coronary system prohibited effective RF application. In 3 patients RF application resulted in a coronary spasm with complete regression as revealed in repeat coronary angiography. CONCLUSION A relevant proportion idiopathic VT/PVC can safely be ablated from the GCV without significant permanent coronary artery stenosis after RF application. Our data furthermore demonstrate that damage to the coronary artery system is likely to be transient.

Understanding the underlying mechanisms of recent Jatropha curcas L. adoption by smallholders in Kenya: A rural livelihood assessment in Bondo, Kibwezi, and Kwale districts

Between 2004 and 2007, NGOs, community based organisations and private investors promoted jatropha in Kenya with the aim of generating additional income and producing biofuel for rural development. By 2008 it became gradually evident that jatropha plantations (both mono- and intercropping) are uneconomical and risky due to competition for land and labour with food crops. Cultivation of jatropha hedges was found to have better chances of economic success and to present only little risks for the adopting farmers. Still, after 2008 a number of farmers went on adopting jatropha in plots rather than as hedges. It is hypothesised that lack of awareness about the low economic prospects of jatropha plantations was the main reason for continued adoption, and that smallholder farmers with higher resource endowments mainly ventured into its cultivation. In this study we provide an empirical basis for understanding the role of households' capital assets in taking up new livelihood strategies by smallholder farmers in three rural districts in Kenya. For that purpose, we assess the motivation and enabling factors that led to the adoption of jatropha as a new livelihood strategy, as well as the context in which promotion and adoption took place. A household survey was conducted in 2010, using a structured questionnaire, to collect information on household characteristics and capital asset endowment. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and non-parametric statistical tests. We established that access to additional income and own energy supply were the main motivation for adoption of jatropha, and that financial capital assets do not necessarily have a positive influence on adoption as hypothesised. Further, we found that the main challenges that adopting farmers faced were lack of access to information on good management practices and lack of a reliable market. We conclude that continued adoption of on-farm jatropha after 2008 is a result of lacking awareness about the low economic value of this production type. We recommend abandoning on-farm production of jatropha until improved seed material and locally adapted agronomic knowledge about jatropha cultivation becomes available and its production becomes economically competitive.

WHEN DOES THE TROUBLE START? OBESITY, DIABETES RISKS AND METABOLIC DISTURBANCES IN YOUNG PEOPLE WITH PSYCHOSIS

People with psychotic disorders have higher mortality rates compared to the general population. Most deaths are due to cardiovascular (CV) disease, reflecting high rates of CV risk factors such as obesity and diabetes. Treatment with antipsychotic drugs is associated with weight gain in clinical trials. However, there is little information about how these drugs affect children and young people, and how early in the course of treatment the elevation in CV risk factors begins. This information is essential in understanding the costs and benefits of these treatments in young people, and establishing preventive and early intervention services to address physical health comorbidities. This symposium reports both prospective and naturalistic data from children and adolescents treated with antipsychotic drugs. These studies demonstrate that adverse effects on cardiometabolic measures, notably BMI and insulin resistance, become apparent very soon after treatment is initiated. Further, children and adolescents appear to be even more sensitive to these effects than adults. Population-wide studies are also informative. Danish data showing that young people exposed to antipsychotics have a higher risk of diabetes, compared with young people who had a psychiatric diagnosis but were not exposed to antipsychotic drugs, will be presented. In addition, an Australian comparison between a large, nationally representative sample of people with psychosis and a general population sample shows that higher rates of obesity and other cardiometabolic abnormalities are already evident in people with psychosis by the age of 25 years. Young people living with psychosis are already disadvantaged by the demands of living with mental illness, stigma, and social factors such as unemployment and low income. The addition of obesity, diabetes and other comorbidities adds a further burden. The data presented highlights the need for careful selection of antipsychotic drugs, regular monitoring of physical health and early intervention when weight gain, glucose dysregulation, or other cardiometabolic abnormalities are detected.

Childhood leukaemia risks: from unexplained findings near nuclear installations to recommendations for future research.

Recent findings related to childhood leukaemia incidence near nuclear installations have raised questions which can be answered neither by current knowledge on radiation risk nor by other established risk factors. In 2012, a workshop was organised on this topic with two objectives: (a) review of results and discussion of methodological limitations of studies near nuclear installations; (b) identification of directions for future research into the causes and pathogenesis of childhood leukaemia. The workshop gathered 42 participants from different disciplines, extending widely outside of the radiation protection field. Regarding the proximity of nuclear installations, the need for continuous surveillance of childhood leukaemia incidence was highlighted, including a better characterisation of the local population. The creation of collaborative working groups was recommended for consistency in methodologies and the possibility of combining data for future analyses. Regarding the causes of childhood leukaemia, major fields of research were discussed (environmental risk factors, genetics, infections, immunity, stem cells, experimental research). The need for multidisciplinary collaboration in developing research activities was underlined, including the prevalence of potential predisposition markers and investigating further the infectious aetiology hypothesis. Animal studies and genetic/epigenetic approaches appear of great interest. Routes for future research were pointed out.

Cone beam computed tomography in implant dentistry: a systematic review focusing on guidelines, indications, and radiation dose risks.

PURPOSE The aim of the paper is to identify, review, analyze, and summarize available evidence in three areas on the use of cross-sectional imaging, specifically maxillofacial cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) in pre- and postoperative dental implant therapy: (1) Available clinical use guidelines, (2) indications and contraindications for use, and (3) assessment of associated radiation dose risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS Three focused questions were developed to address the aims. A systematic literature review was performed using a PICO-based search strategy based on MeSH key words specific to each focused question of English-language publications indexed in the MEDLINE database retrospectively from October 31, 2012. These results were supplemented by a hand search and gray literature search. RESULTS Twelve publications were identified providing guidelines for the use of cross-sectional radiography, particularly CBCT imaging, for the pre- and/or postoperative assessment of potential dental implant sites. The publications discovered by the PICO strategy (43 articles), hand (12), and gray literature searches (1) for the second focus question regarding indications and contraindications for CBCT use in implant dentistry were either cohort or case-controlled studies. For the third question on the assessment of associated radiation dose risk, a total of 22 articles were included. Publication characteristics and themes were summarized in tabular format. CONCLUSIONS The reported indications for CBCT use in implant dentistry vary from preoperative analysis regarding specific anatomic considerations, site development using grafts, and computer-assisted treatment planning to postoperative evaluation focusing on complications due to damage of neurovascular structures. Effective doses for different CBCT devices exhibit a wide range with the lowest dose being almost 100 times less than the highest dose. Significant dose reduction can be achieved by adjusting operating parameters, including exposure factors and reducing the field of view (FOV) to the actual region of interest.

Personality, risky health behavior, and perceived susceptibility to health risks

We examined the relations between personality (Five-Factor Model), risky health behaviours, and perceptions of susceptibility to health risks among 683 university students. The hypothesis was that personality would affect perceptions of susceptibility to health risks in two ways: directly, irrespective of risky health behaviours, and indirectly, through the effects of personality on risky health behaviours. The students were surveyed about smoking, being drunk, drunk driving, risky sexual behaviour, and perceptions of susceptibility to related health risks. In path-analytical models we found the expected direct and indirect effects. The personality dimensions of Agreeableness and Conscientiousness had negative direct effects on perceptions of susceptibility as well as negative indirect effects through risky health behaviours. Neuroticism was the only personality dimension to show positive direct effects on perceptions of susceptibility as well as negative indirect effects.

How political economies affect immigrants' socio-economic incorporation. A comparative analysis of immigrants’ poverty risks across advanced industrialised countries

Immigration and the resulting increasing ethnic diversity have become an important characteristic of advanced industrialised countries. At the same time, the majority of the countries in question are confronted with structural transformation such as deindustrialisation and changes in family structures as well as economic downturn, which limit the capacities of nation-states in addressing rising inequality and supporting those individuals at the margins of the society. This paper addresses both issues, immigration and inequality, by focusing on immigrants’ socio-economic incorporation into the receiving societies of advanced industrialised countries. The aim of this paper is to explain cross-national variation in immigrants’ poverty risks. Drawing on the political economy as well as the migration literature, the paper develops a theoretical framework that considers how the impact of the national labour market and welfare system on immigrants’ poverty risks is moderated by the integration policies, which regulate immigrants’ access to the labour market and social programs (or immigrants’ economic and social rights). The empirical analysis draws on income surveys as well as a newly collected data set on economic and social rights of immigrants in 19 advanced industrialised countries, including European countries as well as Australia, and North America, for the year 2007. As the results from multilevel analysis show, integration policies concerning immigrants’ access to the labour market and social programs can partly explain cross-national variations in immigrants’ poverty risks. In line with the hypothesis, stricter labour market regulations such as minimum wage setting reduce immigrants’ poverty risks stronger in countries where they are granted easier access to the labour market. However, concerning the impact of more generous social programs the reductive poverty effect is stronger in countries with less inclusive access of immigrants to social programs. The paper concludes by discussing possible explanations for this puzzling finding.