Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.

Hazard index maps for woody material recruitment and transport in alpine catchments

A robust and reliable risk assessment procedure for hydrologic hazards deserves particular attention to the role of transported woody material during flash floods or debris flows. At present, woody material transport phenomena are not systematically considered within the procedures for the elaboration of hazard maps. The consequence is a risk of losing prediction accuracy and of underestimating hazard impacts. Transported woody material frequently interferes with the sediment regulation capacity of open check dams and moreover, when obstruction phenomena at critical crosssections of the stream occur, inundations can be triggered. The paper presents a procedure for the determination of the relative propensity of mountain streams to the entrainment and delivery of recruited woody material on the basis of empirical indicators. The procedure provided the basis for the elaboration of a hazard index map for all torrent catchments of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen. The plausibility of the results has been thoroughly checked by a backward oriented analysis on natural hazard events, documented since 1998 at the Department of Hydraulic Engineering of the aforementioned Alpine Province. The procedure provides hints for the consideration of the effects, induced by woody material transport, during the elaboration of hazard zone maps.

Impact of the arc length on GNSS analysis results

Homogeneously reprocessed combined GPS/GLONASS 1- and 3-day solutions from 1994 to 2013, generated by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) in the frame of the second reprocessing campaign REPRO-2 of the International GNSS Service, as well as GPS- and GLONASS-only 1- and 3-day solutions for the years 2009 to 2011 are analyzed to assess the impact of the arc length on the estimated Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP, namely polar motion and length of day), on the geocenter, and on the orbits. The conventional CODE 3-day solutions assume continuity of orbits, polar motion components, and of other parameters at the day boundaries. An experimental 3-day solution, which assumes continuity of the orbits, but independence from day to day for all other parameters, as well as a non-overlapping 3-day solution, is included into our analysis. The time series of EOPs, geocenter coordinates, and orbit misclosures, are analyzed. The long-arc solutions were found to be superior to the 1-day solutions: the RMS values of EOP and geocenter series are typically reduced between 10 and 40 %, except for the polar motion rates, where RMS reductions by factors of 2–3 with respect to the 1-day solutions are achieved for the overlapping and the non-overlapping 3-day solutions. In the low-frequency part of the spectrum, the reduction is even more important. The better performance of the orbits of 3-day solutions with respect to 1-day solutions is also confirmed by the validation with satellite laser ranging.