Monitoring the temporal development of natural hazard risks as a basis indicator for climate change adaptation.

The potential effects of climatic changes on natural risks are widely discussed. But the formulation of strategies for adapting risk management practice to climate changes requires knowledge of the related risks for people and economic values. The main goals of this work were (1) the development of a method for analysing and comparing risks induced by different natural hazard types, (2) highlighting the most relevant natural hazard processes and related damages, (3) the development of an information system for the monitoring of the temporal development of natural hazard risk and (4) the visualisation of the resulting information for the wider public. A comparative exposure analysis provides the basis for pointing out the hot spots of natural hazard risks in the province of Carinthia, Austria. An analysis of flood risks in all municipalities provides the basis for setting the priorities in the planning of flood protection measures. The methods form the basis for a monitoring system that periodically observes the temporal development of natural hazard risks. This makes it possible firstly to identify situations in which natural hazard risks are rising and secondly to differentiate between the most relevant factors responsible for the increasing risks. The factors that most influence the natural risks could be made evident.

Developing Synaesthesia

Synaesthesia is a condition in which a stimulus elicits an additional subjective experience. For example, the letter E printed in black (the inducer) may trigger an additional colour experience as a concurrent (e.g., blue). Synaesthesia tends to run in families and thus, a genetic component is likely. However, given that the stimuli that typically induce synaesthesia are cultural artefacts, a learning component must also be involved. Moreover, there is evidence that synaesthetic experiences not only activate brain areas typically involved in processing sensory input of the concurrent modality; synaesthesia seems to cause a structural reorganisation of the brain. Attempts to train non-synaesthetes with synaesthetic associations have been successful in mimicking certain behavioural aspects and posthypnotic induction of synaesthetic experiences in non-synaesthetes has even led to the according phenomenological reports. These latter findings suggest that structural brain reorganization may not be a critical precondition, but rather a consequence of the sustained coupling of inducers and concurrents. Interestingly, synaesthetes seem to be able to easily transfer synaesthetic experiences to novel stimuli. Beyond this, certain drugs (e.g., LSD) can lead to synaesthesia-like experiences and may provide additional insights into the neurobiological basis of the condition. Furthermore, brain damage can both lead to a sudden presence of synaesthetic experiences in previously non-synaesthetic individuals and a sudden absence of synaesthesia in previously synaesthetic individuals. Moreover, enduring sensory substitution has been effective in inducing a kind of acquired synaesthesia. Besides informing us about the cognitive mechanisms of synaesthesia, synaesthesia research is relevant for more general questions, for example about consciousness such as the binding problem, about crossmodal correspondences and about how individual differences in perceiving and experiencing the world develop. Hence the aim of the current Research Topic is to provide novel insights into the development of synaesthesia both in its genuine and acquired form. We welcome novel experimental work and theoretical contributions (e.g., review and opinion articles) focussing on factors such as brain maturation, learning, training, hypnosis, drugs, sensory substitution and brain damage and their relation to the development of any form of synaesthesia.

Global carbon budget 2013

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr − 1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr − 1, S OCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, and S LAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr − 1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, 2.2 % above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr − 1, SOCEANwas 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1, and assuming an ELU Cof 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr − 1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 con- centration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1 % (1.1–3.1 %) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61 % above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70 % from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30 % from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Molecular and cellular basis of bone resorption.

Osteoclast research has an exciting history and a challenging future. More than 3 decades ago, it became evident that bone-resorbing osteoclasts are of hematopoietic origin and are ultimately linked to the "basic multicellular unit," where they team up with the other cell types, including bone-forming osteoblasts. Since 2 decades, we have learned about the signaling pathways controlling genes relevant for osteoclastogenesis and bone resorption. It took another decade until the hypothesized "osteoclast differentiation" factor was discovered and was translated into an approved pharmacologic strategy. Here, the focus is on another molecular target, cathepsin K, a cysteine protease being released by the osteoclast into the resorption compartment. Genetic deletion and pharmacological blocking of cathepsin K reduces bone resorption but with ongoing bone formation. This observation not only holds great promise to become a new pharmacologic strategy, but it also provides new insights into the coordinated work of cells in the "basic multicellular unit" and thus, bridges the history and future of osteoclast research. This article is a short primer on osteoclast biology for readers of the special issue on odanacatib, a cathepsin K inhibitor.

Body Height Estimation from Femur Measurements in Postmortem Computed Tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will: (1) understand how body height from computed tomography data can be estimated; and, (2) gain knowledge about the accuracy of estimated body height and limitations. The presentation will impact the forensic science community by providing knowledge and competence which will enable attendees to develop formulas for single bones to reconstruct body height using postmortem Computer Tomography (p-CT) data. The estimation of Body Height (BH) is an important component of the identification of corpses and skeletal remains. Stature can be estimated with relative accuracy via the measurement of long bones, such as the femora. Compared to time-consuming maceration procedures, p-CT allows fast and simple measurements of bones. This study undertook four objectives concerning the accuracy of BH estimation via p-CT: (1) accuracy between measurements on native bone and p-CT imaged bone (F1 according to Martin 1914); (2) intra-observer p-CT measurement precision; (3) accuracy between formula-based estimation of the BH and conventional body length measurement during autopsy; and, (4) accuracy of different estimation formulas available.1 In the first step, the accuracy of measurements in the CT compared to those obtained using an osteometric board was evaluated on the basis of eight defleshed femora. Then the femora of 83 female and 144 male corpses of a Swiss population for which p-CTs had been performed, were measured at the Institute of Forensic Medicine in Bern. After two months, 20 individuals were measured again in order to assess the intraobserver error. The mean age of the men was 53±17 years and that of the women was 61±20 years. Additionally, the body length of the corpses was measured conventionally. The mean body length was 176.6±7.2cm for men and 163.6±7.8cm for women. The images that were obtained using a six-slice CT were reconstructed with a slice thickness of 1.25mm. Analysis and measurements of CT images were performed on a multipurpose workstation. As a forensic standard procedure, stature was estimated by means of the regression equations by Penning & Riepert developed on a Southern German population and for comparison, also those referenced by Trotter & Gleser “American White.”2,3 All statistical tests were performed with a statistical software. No significant differences were found between the CT and osteometric board measurements. The double p-CT measurement of 20 individuals resulted in an absolute intra-observer difference of 0.4±0.3mm. For both sexes, the correlation between the body length and the estimated BH using the F1 measurements was highly significant. The correlation coefficient was slightly higher for women. The differences in accuracy of the different formulas were small. While the errors of BH estimation were generally ±4.5–5.0cm, the consideration of age led to an increase in accuracy of a few millimetres to about 1cm. BH estimations according to Penning & Riepert and Trotter & Gleser were slightly more accurate when age-at-death was taken into account.2,3 That way, stature estimations in the group of individuals older than 60 years were improved by about 2.4cm and 3.1cm.2,3 The error of estimation is therefore about a third of the common ±4.7cm error range. Femur measurements in p-CT allow very accurate BH estimations. Estimations according to Penning led to good results that (barely) come closer to the true value than the frequently used formulas by Trotter & Gleser “American White.”2,3 Therefore, the formulas by Penning & Riepert are also validated for this substantial recent Swiss population.

Keeping bugs in check: The mucus layer as a critical component in maintaining intestinal homeostasis

In the mammalian gastrointestinal tract the close vicinity of abundant immune effector cells and trillions of commensal microbes requires sophisticated barrier and regulatory mechanisms to maintain vital host-microbial interactions and tissue homeostasis. During co-evolution of the host and its intestinal microbiota a protective multilayered barrier system was established to segregate the luminal microbes from the intestinal mucosa with its potent immune effector cells, limit bacterial translocation into host tissues to prevent tissue damage, while ensuring the vital functions of the intestinal mucosa and the luminal gut microbiota. In the present review we will focus on the different layers of protection in the intestinal tract that allow the successful mutualism between the microbiota and the potent effector cells of the intestinal innate and adaptive immune system. In particular, we will review some of the recent findings on the vital functions of the mucus layer and its site-specific adaptations to the changing quantities and complexities of the microbiota along the (gastro-) intestinal tract. Understanding the regulatory pathways that control the establishment of the mucus layer, but also its degradation during intestinal inflammation may be critical for designing novel strategies aimed at maintaining local tissue homeostasis and supporting remission from relapsing intestinal inflammation in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases.

An intercontinental comparison of chironomid palaeotemperature inference models: Europe vs North America

Chironomid-temperature inference models based on North American, European and combined surface sediment training sets were compared to assess the overall reliability of their predictions. Between 67 and 76 of the major chironomid taxa in each data set showed a unimodal response to July temperature, whereas between 5 and 22 of the common taxa showed a sigmoidal response. July temperature optima were highly correlated among the training sets, but the correlations for other taxon parameters such as tolerances and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) and partial least squares (PLS) regression coefficients were much weaker. PLS, weighted averaging, WA-PLS, and the Modern Analogue Technique, all provided useful and reliable temperature inferences. Although jack-knifed error statistics suggested that two-component WA-PLS models had the highest predictive power, intercontinental tests suggested that other inference models performed better. The various models were able to provide good July temperature inferences, even where neither good nor close modern analogues for the fossil chironomid assemblages existed. When the models were applied to fossil Lateglacial assemblages from North America and Europe, the inferred rates and magnitude of July temperature changes varied among models. All models, however, revealed similar patterns of Lateglacial temperature change. Depending on the model used, the inferred Younger Dryas July temperature decrease ranged between 2.5 and 6°C.