The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

Probing the Allende meteorite with a miniature laser-ablation mass analyser for space application

We measured the elemental composition on a sample of Allende meteorite with a miniature laser ablation mass spectrometer. This Laser Mass Spectrometer (LMS) has been designed and built at the University of Bern in the Department of Space Research and Planetary Sciences with the objective of using such an instrument on a space mission. Utilising the meteorite Allende as the test sample in this study, it is demonstrated that the instrument allows the in situ determination of the elemental composition and thus mineralogy and petrology of untreated rocky samples, particularly on planetary surfaces. In total, 138 measurements of elemental compositions have been carried out on an Allende sample. The mass spectrometric data are evaluated and correlated with an optical image. It is demonstrated that by illustrating the measured elements in the form of mineralogical maps, LMS can serve as an element imaging instrument with a very high spatial resolution of µm scale. The detailed analysis also includes a mineralogical evaluation and an investigation of the volatile element content of Allende. All findings are in good agreement with published data and underline the high sensitivity, accuracy and capability of LMS as a mass analyser for space exploration.

Does World Natural Heritage status trigger sustainable regional development efforts?

Today, there are over 200 World Natural Heritage (WNH) sites. Although the original aim of the World Heritage (WH) Convention was to spark off concerted international efforts to preserve sites of outstanding and universal value, today a multitude of expectations rests on WNH sites in terms of conservation, tourism, management and regional development. This paper identifies the effects of WNH status on sustainable regional development and the driving factors behind these effects. The results are based on a global survey of WNH sites and qualitative interviews with key WNH personnel. The paper shows that WNH status can be an important trigger for sustainable regional development, but its effectiveness depends on a number of intricately interwoven ‘soft’ success factors. Clearer policies and management guidelines, as envisaged by UNESCO, are crucial to achieving a balance between conservation and development.

Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis

We estimate the effects of climatic changes, as predicted by six climate models, on lake surface temperatures on a global scale, using the lake surface equilibrium temperature as a proxy. We evaluate interactions between different forcing variables, the sensitivity of lake surface temperatures to these variables, as well as differences between climate zones. Lake surface equilibrium temperatures are predicted to increase by 70 to 85 % of the increase in air temperatures. On average, air temperature is the main driver for changes in lake surface temperatures, and its effect is reduced by ~10 % by changes in other meteorological variables. However, the contribution of these other variables to the variance is ~40 % of that of air temperature, and their effects can be important at specific locations. The warming increases the importance of longwave radiation and evaporation for the lake surface heat balance compared to shortwave radiation and convective heat fluxes. We discuss the consequences of our findings for the design and evaluation of different types of studies on climate change effects on lakes.

Globale Temperaturvariabilität der letzten 2000 Jahre

Neue 2000-jährige Temperaturrekonstruktionen für sieben Landregionen der Erde zeigen einen deutlichen Wechsel zwischen einem wärmeren ersten und einem kühleren zweiten Jahrtausend. Die Abkühlung der Kleinen Eiszeit erfolgte auf den Südkontinenten mit Verzögerung. Sie dürfte maßgeblich durch Serien von großen Vulkaneruptionen und durch fast gleichzeitig aufgetretene Einbrüche bei der solaren Leuchtstärke beeinflusst worden sein. Die hohen Temperaturmittel des 20. und 21. Jahrhunderts sind mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit während der letzten 1400 Jahre global nicht erreicht worden. Die Erwärmungsphase im 20. und 21. Jahrhundert ist in erster Linie das Resultat des anthropogenen Treibhauseffektes.

Geochemical variability in distal and proximal glass from the Youngest Toba Tuff eruption

The Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT, erupted ca. 74 ka ago) is a distinctive and widespread tephra marker across south and southeast Asia. The climatic, human and environmental consequences of the YTT eruption are widely debated. Although a considerable body of geochemical data is available for this unit, there has not been a systematic study of the variability of the ash geochemistry. Intrinsic (magmatic) and extrinsic (post-depositional) chemical variations bring fundamental information regarding the petrogenesis of the magma, the distribution of the tephra and the interaction between the ash and the receiving environment. Considering the importance of the geochemistry of the YTT for stratigraphic correlations and eruptive models, it is central to the YTT debate to quantify and interpret such variations. Here we collate all published geochemical data on the YTT glass, including analyses from 68 sites described in the literature and three new samples. Two principal sources of chemical variation are investigated: (i) compositional zonation of the magma reservoir, and (ii) post-depositional alteration. Post-depositional leaching is responsible for up to ca. 11% differences in Na2O/K2O and ca. 1% differences in SiO2/Al2O3 ratios in YTT glass from marine sites. Continental tephra are 2% higher in Na2O/K2O and 3% higher in SiO2/Al2O3 respect to the marine tephra. We interpret such post-depositional glass alteration as related to seawater induced alkali migration in marine environments, or to site-specific water pH. Crystal fractionation and consequential magmatic differentiation, which produced order-of-magnitude variations in trace element concentrations reported in the literature, also produced major element differences in the YTT glass. FeO/Al2O3 ratios vary by about 50 %, which is analytically significant. These variations represent magmatic fractionation involving Fe-bearing phases. We also compared major element concentrations in YTT and Oldest Toba Tuff (OTT) ash samples, to identify potential compositional differences that could constrain the stratigraphic identity of the Morgaon ash (Western India); no differences between the OTT and YTT samples were observed.

Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon fluxes from land to ocean

A substantial amount of the atmospheric carbon taken up on land through photosynthesis and chemical weathering is transported laterally along the aquatic continuum from upland terrestrial ecosystems to the ocean. So far, global carbon budget estimates have implicitly assumed that the transformation and lateral transport of carbon along this aquatic continuum has remained unchanged since pre-industrial times. A synthesis of published work reveals the magnitude of present-day lateral carbon fluxes from land to ocean, and the extent to which human activities have altered these fluxes. We show that anthropogenic perturbation may have increased the flux of carbon to inland waters by as much as 1.0 Pg C yr(-1) since pre-industrial times, mainly owing to enhanced carbon export from soils. Most of this additional carbon input to upstream rivers is either emitted back to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (similar to 0.4 Pg C yr(-1)) or sequestered in sediments (similar to 0.5 Pg C yr(-1)) along the continuum of freshwater bodies, estuaries and coastal waters, leaving only a perturbation carbon input of similar to 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) to the open ocean. According to our analysis, terrestrial ecosystems store similar to 0.9 Pg C yr(-1) at present, which is in agreement with results from forest inventories but significantly differs from the figure of 1.5 Pg C yr(-1) previously estimated when ignoring changes in lateral carbon fluxes. We suggest that carbon fluxes along the land-ocean aquatic continuum need to be included in global carbon dioxide budgets.

The coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM

The newly developed atmosphere–ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-MPIOM is presented by demonstrating the influence of the interactive chemistry module on the climate state and the variability. Therefore, we compare pre-industrial control simulations with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. In general, the influence of the chemistry on the mean state and the variability is small and mainly restricted to the stratosphere and mesosphere. The largest differences are found for the atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions, with slightly stronger northern and southern winter polar vortices in CHEM. The strengthening of the vortex is related to larger stratospheric temperature gradients, which are attributed to a parametrization of the absorption of ozone and oxygen in the Lyman-alpha, Schumann–Runge, Hartley, and Higgins bands. This effect is parametrized in the version with interactive chemistry only. A second reason for the temperature differences between CHEM and NOCHEM is related to diurnal variations in the ozone concentrations in the higher atmosphere, which are missing in NOCHEM. Furthermore, stratospheric water vapour concentrations differ substantially between the two experiments, but their effect on the temperatures is small. In both setups, the simulated intensity and variability of the northern polar vortex is inside the range of present day observations. Sudden stratospheric warming events are well reproduced in terms of their frequency, but the distribution amongst the winter months is too uniform. Additionally, the performance of SOCOL-MPIOM under changing external forcings is assessed for the period 1600–2000 using an ensemble of simulations driven by a spectral solar forcing reconstruction. The amplitude of the reconstruction is large in comparison to other state-of-the-art reconstructions, providing an upper limit for the importance of the solar signal. In the pre-industrial period (1600–1850) the simulated surface temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with temperature reconstructions, although the multi-decadal variability is more pronounced. This enhanced variability can be attributed to the variability in the solar forcing. The simulated temperature reductions during the Maunder Minimum are in the lowest probability range of the proxy records. During the Dalton Minimum, when also volcanic forcing is an important driver of temperature variations, the agreement is better. In the industrial period from 1850 onward SOCOL-MPIOM overestimates the temperature increase in comparison to observational data sets. Sensitivity simulations show that this overestimation can be attributed to the increasing trend in the solar forcing reconstruction that is used in this study and an additional warming induced by the simulated ozone changes.

On the Co-Occurrence of Warm Conveyor Belt Outflows and PV Streamers*

The co-occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs), strongly ascending moist airstreams in extratropical cyclones, and stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) streamers, indicators for breaking Rossby waves on the tropopause, is investigated for a 21-yr period in the Northern Hemisphere using Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. WCB outflows and PV streamers are respectively identified as two- and three-dimensional objects and tracked during their life cycle. PV streamers are more frequent than WCB outflows and nearly 15% of all PV streamers co-occur with WCBs during their life cycle, whereas about 60% of all WCB outflows co-occur with PV streamers. Co-occurrences are most frequent over the North Atlantic and North Pacific in spring and winter. WCB outflows are often located upstream of the PV streamers and form earlier, indicating the importance of diabatic processes for downstream Rossby wave breaking. Less frequently, PV streamers occur first, leading to the formation of new WCBs.

The Anomalous Merging of the African and North Atlantic Jet Streams during the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2010

The North Atlantic jet stream during winter 2010 was unusually zonal, so the typically separated Atlantic and African jets were merged into one zonal jet. Moreover, the latitude–height structure and temporal variability of the North Atlantic jet during this winter were more characteristic of the North Pacific. This work examines the possibility of a flow regime change from an eddy-driven to a mixed eddy–thermally driven jet. A monthly jet zonality index is defined, which shows that a persistent merged jet state has occurred in the past, both at the end of the 1960s and during a few sporadic months. The anomalously zonal jet is found to be associated with anomalous tropical Pacific diabatic heating and eddy anomalies similar to those found during a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) state. A Lagrangian back-trajectory diagnosis of eight winters suggests the tropical Pacific is a source of momentum to the Atlantic and African jets and that this source was stronger during the winter of 2010. The results suggest that the combination of weak eddy variance and fluxes in the North Atlantic, along with strong tropical heating, act to push the jet toward a merged eddy–thermally driven state. The authors also find significant SST anomalies in the North Atlantic, which reinforce the anomalous zonal winds, particularly in the eastern Atlantic.

Terrestrial and submarine evidence for the extent and timing of the Last Glacial Maximum and the onset of deglaciation on the maritime-Antarctic and sub-Antarctic islands

This paper is the maritime and sub–Antarctic contribution to the Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research (SCAR) Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS) community Antarctic Ice Sheet reconstruction. The overarching aim for all sectors of Antarctica was to reconstruct the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice sheet extent and thickness, and map the subsequent deglaciation in a series of 5000 year time slices. However, our review of the literature found surprisingly few high quality chronological constraints on changing glacier extents on these timescales in the maritime and sub–Antarctic sector. Therefore, in this paper we focus on an assessment of the terrestrial and offshore evidence for the LGM ice extent, establishing minimum ages for the onset of deglaciation, and separating evidence of deglaciation from LGM limits from those associated with later Holocene glacier fluctuations. Evidence included geomorphological descriptions of glacial landscapes, radiocarbon dated basal peat and lake sediment deposits, cosmogenic isotope ages of glacial features and molecular biological data. We propose a classification of the glacial history of the maritime and sub–Antarctic islands based on this assembled evidence. These include: (Type I) islands which accumulated little or no LGM ice; (Type II) islands with a limited LGM ice extent but evidence of extensive earlier continental shelf glaciations; (Type III) seamounts and volcanoes unlikely to have accumulated significant LGM ice cover; (Type IV) islands on shallow shelves with both terrestrial and submarine evidence of LGM (and/or earlier) ice expansion; (Type V) Islands north of the Antarctic Polar Front with terrestrial evidence of LGM ice expansion; and (Type VI) islands with no data. Finally, we review the climatological and geomorphological settings that separate the glaciological history of the islands within this classification scheme.

Peak Last Glacial weathering intensity on the North American continent recorded by the authigenic Hf isotope composition of North Atlantic deep-sea sediments

We have retrieved radiogenic hafnium (Hf) isotope compositions (ɛHf) from authigenic Fe–Mn oxyhydroxides of deep northwest Atlantic sediments deposited over the past 26 ka to investigate the oceanic evidence of changes in dissolved weathering inputs from NE America during the last deglaciation. The extraction of seawater-derived Hf isotopic compositions from Fe–Mn oxyhydroxides is not a standard procedure. Comparisons between the Al/Hf ratios and Hf isotopic compositions of the chemically extracted authigenic phase on the one hand, and those of the corresponding detrital fractions on the other, provide evidence that the composition of past seawater has been reliably obtained for most sampled depths with our leaching procedures. This is endorsed most strongly by data for a sediment core from 4250 m water depth at the deeper Blake Ridge, for which consistent replicates were produced throughout. The Hf isotopic composition of the most recent sample in this core also closely matches that of nearby present day central North Atlantic seawater. Comparison with previously published seawater Nd and Pb isotope compositions obtained on the same cores shows that both Hf and Pb were released incongruently during incipient chemical weathering, but responded differently to the deglacial retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Hafnium was released more congruently during peak glacial conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and changed to typical incongruent interglacial ɛHf signatures either during or shortly after the LGM. This indicates that some zircon-derived Hf was released to seawater during the LGM. Conversely, there is no clear evidence for an increase in the influence of weathering of Lu-rich mineral phases during deglaciation, possibly since relatively unradiogenic Hf contributions from feldspar weathering were superimposed. While the authigenic Pb isotope signal in the same marine sediment samples traced peak chemical weathering rates on continental North America during the transition to the Holocene a similar incongruent excursion is notably absent in the Hf isotope record. The early change towards more radiogenic ɛHf in relation to the LGM may provide direct evidence for the transition from a cold-based to a warm-based Laurentide Ice Sheet on the Atlantic sector of North America.

Long-term relationships among pesticide applications, mobility, and soil erosion in a vineyard watershed

Agricultural pesticide use has increased worldwide during the last several decades, but the long-term fate, storage, and transfer dynamics of pesticides in a changing environment are poorly understood. Many pesticides have been progressively banned, but in numerous cases, these molecules are stable and may persist in soils, sediments, and ice. Many studies have addressed the question of their possible remobilization as a result of global change. In this article, we present a retro-observation approach based on lake sediment records to monitor micropollutants and to evaluate the long-term succession and diffuse transfer of herbicides, fungicides, and insecticide treatments in a vineyard catchment in France. The sediment allows for a reliable reconstruction of past pesticide use through time, validated by the historical introduction, use, and banning of these organic and inorganic pesticides in local vineyards. Our results also revealed how changes in these practices affect storage conditions and, consequently, the pesticides’ transfer dynamics. For example, the use of postemergence herbicides (glyphosate), which induce an increase in soil erosion, led to a release of a banned remnant pesticide (dichlorodiphenyltrichloro- ethane, DDT), which had been previously stored in vineyard soil, back into the environment. Management strategies of ecotoxico- logical risk would be well served by recognition of the diversity of compounds stored in various environmental sinks, such as agriculture soil, and their capability to become sources when environmental conditions change.