Simple Estimation of Incident HIV Infection Rates in Notification Cohorts Based on Window Periods of Algorithms for Evaluation of Line-Immunoassay Result Patterns

Background Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. Methods We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship ‘Prevalence = Incidence x Duration’ in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship ‘incident = true incident + false incident’ and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. Results Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R2 = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. Conclusions IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

Choosing the Path of Austerity: How Policy Coalitions Shape Welfare-policy Choices in Periods of Fiscal Consolidation

In general, fiscal adjustments are associated with significant reductions in social spending. Hence, the welfare state is not spared from austerity. Because the welfare state is still central to party competition, this is electorally risky. The paper addresses the following questions: Do left parties differ from their centrist and rightist competitors in the design of austerity measures? And does government type has an impact on the extent to which austerity policies rely on social spending cuts? By comparing 17 OECD countries between 1982 and 2009 we show that if governments embark on a path to austerity, their ideology does not have a significant effect on the magnitude of welfare state retrenchment. However, if major opposition parties and interest groups rally against social spending cuts, a broad pro-reform coalition is a crucial precondition for large fiscal consolidation programs to rely on substantial cuts to social security.

Exploring the publications in three major orthodontic journals: a comparative analysis of two 5-year periods.

OBJECTIVE To analyze the types of articles and authorship characteristics of three orthodontic journals--American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics (AJODO), The Angle Orthodontist (AO), and European Journal of Orthodontics (EJO)--published between 2008 and 2012 and to assess the differences in content within this period and an earlier period of 1998 to 2002. MATERIALS AND METHODS Each journal's content was accessed through the web edition. From each article, the following parameters were recorded: article type, number of authors, number of affiliations, source of article (referring to the first author's affiliation), and geographic origin. Descriptive statistics were performed and selected parameters were analyzed with the Pearson chi-square or Fisher exact test for independence at the .05 level of significance. RESULTS Review of differences between the two periods showed that the number of publications was almost double. The percentages of multi-authored articles increased. Fewer studies derived from the United States/Canada and European Union countries. Increases for articles from non-European Union countries, Asia, and other countries were found. Characteristics of the second period showed that the EJO and AO published more research articles, whereas the AJODO regularly published case reports and other articles. Approximately 75% of all studies derived from orthodontic departments. CONCLUSIONS The publications from 1998-2002 and 2008-2012 were significantly different both in terms of numbers and characteristics. Within 2008-2012 there were notable differences between the three journals concerning the type and origin of the publications.

Electrolyte disorders and in-hospital mortality during prolonged heat periods: a cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND Heat periods during recent years were associated with excess hospitalization and mortality rates, especially in the elderly. We intended to study whether prolonged warmth/heat periods are associated with an increased prevalence of disorders of serum sodium and potassium and an increased hospital mortality. METHODS In this cross-sectional analysis all patients admitted to the Department of Emergency Medicine of a large tertiary care facility between January 2009 and December 2010 with measurements of serum sodium were included. Demographic data along with detailed data on diuretic medication, length of hospital stay and hospital mortality were obtained for all patients. Data on daily temperatures (maximum, mean, minimum) and humidity were retrieved by Meteo Swiss. RESULTS A total of 22.239 patients were included in the study. 5 periods with a temperature exceeding 25 °C for 3 to 5 days were noticed and 2 periods with temperatures exceeding 25 °C for more than 5 days were noted. Additionally, 2 periods with 3 to 5 days with daily temperatures exceeding 30 °C were noted during the study period. We found a significantly increased prevalence of hyponatremia during heat periods. However, in the Cox regression analysis, prolonged heat was not associated with the prevalence of disorders of serum sodium or potassium. Admission during a heat period was an independent predictor for hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS Although we found an increased prevalence of hyponatremia during heat periods, no convincing connection could be found for hypernatremia or disorders of serum potassium.

Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Wet deposition of fossil and non-fossil derived particulate carbon: insights from radiocarbon measurement

Radiocarbon (14C) measurements of both organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) allow a more detailed source apportionment, leading to a full and unambiguous distinction and quantification of the contributions from non-fossil and fossil sources. A thermal-optical method with a commercial OC/EC analyzer to isolate water-insoluble OC (WIOC) and EC for their subsequent 14C measurement was applied for the first time to filtered precipitation samples collected at a costal site in Portugal and at a continental site in Switzerland. Our results show that WIOC in precipitation is dominated by non-fossil sources such as biogenic and biomass-burning emissions regardless of rain origins and seasons, whereas EC sources are shared by fossil-fuel combustion and biomass burning. In addition, monthly variation of WIOC in Switzerland was characterized by higher abundance in warm than in cold seasons, highlighting the importance of biogenic emissions to particulate carbon in rainwater. Samples with high particulate carbon concentrations in Portugal were found to be associated with increased biogenic input. Despite the importance of non-fossil sources, fossil emissions account for approximately 20% of particulate carbon in wet deposition for our study, which is in line with fossil contribution in bulk rainwater dissolved organic carbon as well as aerosol WIOC and EC estimated by the 14C approach from other studies.

Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Depositional modes and lake-level variability at Lake Towuti, Indonesia, during the past ~29 kyr BP

Lake Towuti (2.5°S, 121.5°E) is a long-lived, tectonic lake located on the Island of Sulawesi, Indonesia, and in the center of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). Lake Towuti is connected with upstream lakes Matano and Mahalona through the Mahalona River, which constitutes the largest inlet to the lake. The Mahalona River Delta is prograding into Lake Towuti’s deep northern basin thus exerting significant control on depositional processes in the basin. We combine high-resolution seismic reflection and sedimentological datasets from a 19.8-m-long sediment piston core from the distal edge of this delta to characterize fluctuations in deltaic sedimentation during the past ~29 kyr BP and their relation to climatic change. Our datasets reveal that, in the present, sedimentation is strongly influenced by deposition of laterally transported sediments sourced from the Mahalona River Delta. Variations in the amount of laterally transported sediments, as expressed by coarse fraction amounts in pelagic muds and turbidite recurrence rates and cumulative thicknesses, are primarily a function of lake-level induced delta slope instability and delta progradation into the basin. We infer lowest lake-levels between ~29 and 16, a gradual lake level rise between ~16 and 11, and high lake-levels between ~11 and 0 kyr BP. Periods of highest turbidite deposition, ~26 to 24 and ~18 to 16 kyr BP coincide with Heinrich events 2 and 1, respectively. Our lake-level reconstruction therefore supports previous observations based on geochemical hydroclimate proxies of a very dry last glacial and a wet Holocene in the region, and provides new evidence of millennial-scale variations in moisture balance in the IPWP.

Extraction of spin periods of space debris from optical light curves

The population of space debris increased drastically during the last years. These objects have become a great threat for active satellites. Because the relative velocities between space debris and satellites are high, space debris objects may destroy active satellites through collisions. Furthermore, collisions involving massive objects produce large number of fragments leading to significant growth of the space debris population. The long term evolution of the debris population is essentially driven by so-called catastrophic collisions. An effective remediation measure in order to stabilize the population in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is therefore the removal of large, massive space debris. To remove these objects, not only precise orbits, but also more detailed information about their attitude states will be required. One important property of an object targeted for removal is its spin period, spin axis orientation and their change over time. Rotating objects will produce periodic brightness variations with frequencies which are related to the spin periods. Such a brightness variation over time is called a light curve. Collecting, but also processing light curves is challenging due to several reasons. Light curves may be undersampled, low frequency components due to phase angle and atmospheric extinction changes may be present, and beat frequencies may occur when the rotation period is close to a multiple of the sampling period. Depending on the method which is used to extract the frequencies, also method-specific properties have to be taken into account. The astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) light curve database will be introduced, which contains more than 1,300 light curves acquired over more than seven years. We will discuss properties and reliability of different time series analysis methods tested and currently used by AIUB for the light curve processing. Extracted frequencies and reconstructed phases for some interesting targets, e.g. GLONASS satellites, for which also SLR data were available for the period confirmation, will be presented. Finally we will present the reconstructed phase and its evolution over time of a High-Area-to-Mass-Ratio (HAMR) object, which AIUB observed for several years.

Evidence for cooler European summers during periods of changing meltwater flux to the North Atlantic

We analyzed fossil chironomids (nonbiting midges) and pollen in two lake-sediment records to reconstruct and quantify Holocene summer-temperature fluctuations in the European Alps. Chironomid and pollen records indicate five centennial-scale cooling episodes during the early- and mid-Holocene. The strongest temperature declines of ≈1°C are inferred at ≈10,700–10,500 and 8,200–7,600 calibrated 14C years B.P., whereas other temperature fluctuations are of smaller amplitude. Two forcing mechanisms have been presented recently to explain centennial-scale climate variability in Europe during the early- and mid-Holocene, both involving changes in Atlantic thermohaline circulation. In the first mechanism, changes in meltwater flux from the North American continent to the North Atlantic are responsible for changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, thereby affecting circum-Atlantic climate. In the second mechanism, solar variability is the cause of Holocene climatic fluctuations, possibly triggering changes in Atlantic thermohaline overturning. Within their dating uncertainty, the two major cooling periods in the European Alps are coeval with substantial changes in the routing of North American freshwater runoff to the North Atlantic, whereas quantitatively, our climatic reconstructions show a poor agreement with available records of past solar activity. Thus, our results suggest that, during the early- and mid-Holocene, freshwater-induced Atlantic circulation changes had stronger influence on Alpine summer temperatures than solar variability and that Holocene thermohaline circulation reductions have led to summer-temperature declines of up to 1°C in central Europe.

A Late-glacial and Holocene record of climatic change from a Swiss peat humification profile

Colorimetric measurements of alkaline extracts from two Swiss peat cores have provided a complete 14500-year-long record of peat humification, a proxy of effective precipitation. Peat from the cold Younger Dryas (11050–9550 cal. bc) was well preserved despite low levels of precipitation. A particularly dry period, peaking at c. 7100 cal. bc, is indicated by well-decomposed peat. Peat from c. 6750–4250 cal. bc shows a low degree of decomposition, indicating a wet bog surface despite relatively warm temperatures and therefore indicating high levels of precipitation. A sharp transition to higher levels of decomposition c. 4450–3750 cal. bc indicates a major transition to a drier bog surface. Subsequently, peat humification generally decreases towards the end of the deeper profile (c. cal. ad 1050), indicating a gradual return to wetter conditions. This gradual decrease is punctuated by periods of particularly low humification which appear to be due to shifts to higher levels of effective precipitation from c. 2500 to 1350 cal. bc, c. 1050 to 550 cal. bc, centered around 150 cal. bc, and from c. cal. ad 550 onwards. Anthropogenic influences appear to have affected peat humification at the site at least since the Middle Ages. This study indicates that humification in colder regions/time periods could be more affected by temperature than precipitation and vice versa.

Wet and dry deposition of 129I in Seville (Spain) measured by accelerator mass spectrometry

Iodine-129 (Full-size image (<1 K)) concentrations have been determined by accelerator mass spectrometry in rainwater samples taken at Seville (southwestern Spain) in 1996 and 1997. This technique allows a reduction in the detection limits for this radionuclide in comparison to radiometric counting and other mass spectrometric methods such as ICP-MS. Typical 129I concentrations range from 4.7×107129I atoms/l (19.2%) to 4.97×109129I atoms/l (5.9%), while 129I depositions are normally in the order of 108–1010 atoms/m2 d. These values agree well with other results obtained for recent rainwater samples collected in Europe. Apart from these, the relationship between 129I deposition and some atmospheric factors has been analyzed, showing the importance of the precipitation rate and the concentration of suspended matter in it.

Choosing the path of austerity: how parties and policy coalitions influence welfare state retrenchment in periods of fiscal consolidation

What are the conditions under which some austerity programmes rely on substantial cuts to social spending? More specifically, do the partisan complexion and the type of government condition the extent to which austerity policies imply welfare state retrenchment? This article demonstrates that large budget consolidations tend to be associated with welfare state retrenchment. The findings support a partisan and a politico-institutionalist argument: (i) in periods of fiscal consolidation, welfare state retrenchment tends to be more pronounced under left-wing governments; (ii) since welfare state retrenchment is electorally and politically risky, it also tends to be more pronounced when pursued by a broad pro-reform coalition government. Therefore, the article shows that during budget consolidations implemented by left-wing broad coalition governments, welfare state retrenchment is greatest. Using long-run multipliers from autoregressive distributed lag models on 17 OECD countries during the 1982–2009 period, substantial support is found for these expectations.