Outcomes of Active Surveillance for Ductal Carcinoma in Situ: A Computational Risk Analysis.

BACKGROUND Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a noninvasive breast lesion with uncertain risk for invasive progression. Usual care (UC) for DCIS consists of treatment upon diagnosis, thus potentially overtreating patients with low propensity for progression. One strategy to reduce overtreatment is active surveillance (AS), whereby DCIS is treated only upon detection of invasive disease. Our goal was to perform a quantitative evaluation of outcomes following an AS strategy for DCIS. METHODS Age-stratified, 10-year disease-specific cumulative mortality (DSCM) for AS was calculated using a computational risk projection model based upon published estimates for natural history parameters, and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data for outcomes. AS projections were compared with the DSCM for patients who received UC. To quantify the propagation of parameter uncertainty, a 95% projection range (PR) was computed, and sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS Under the assumption that AS cannot outperform UC, the projected median differences in 10-year DSCM between AS and UC when diagnosed at ages 40, 55, and 70 years were 2.6% (PR = 1.4%-5.1%), 1.5% (PR = 0.5%-3.5%), and 0.6% (PR = 0.0%-2.4), respectively. Corresponding median numbers of patients needed to treat to avert one breast cancer death were 38.3 (PR = 19.7-69.9), 67.3 (PR = 28.7-211.4), and 157.2 (PR = 41.1-3872.8), respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed that the parameter with greatest impact on DSCM was the probability of understaging invasive cancer at diagnosis. CONCLUSION AS could be a viable management strategy for carefully selected DCIS patients, particularly among older age groups and those with substantial competing mortality risks. The effectiveness of AS could be markedly improved by reducing the rate of understaging.

Prognostic Value of Secretoneurin in Critically Ill Patients With Infections.

OBJECTIVES Secretoneurin is produced in neuroendocrine cells, and the myocardium and circulating secretoneurin levels provide incremental prognostic information to established risk indices in cardiovascular disease. As myocardial dysfunction contributes to poor outcome in critically ill patients, we wanted to assess the prognostic value of secretoneurin in two cohorts of critically ill patients with infections. DESIGN Two prospective, observational studies. SETTING Twenty-four and twenty-five ICUs in Finland. PATIENTS A total of 232 patients with severe sepsis (cohort #1) and 94 patients with infections and respiratory failure (cohort #2). INTERVENTIONS None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS We measured secretoneurin levels by radioimmunoassay in samples obtained early after ICU admission and compared secretoneurin with other risk indices. In patients with severe sepsis, admission secretoneurin levels (logarithmically transformed) were associated with hospital mortality (odds ratio, 3.17 [95% CI, 1.12-9.00]; p = 0.030) and shock during the hospitalization (odds ratio, 2.17 [1.06-4.46]; p = 0.034) in analyses that adjusted for other risk factors available on ICU admission. Adding secretoneurin levels to age, which was also associated with hospital mortality in the multivariate model, improved the risk prediction as assessed by the category-free net reclassification index: 0.35 (95% CI, 0.06-0.64) (p = 0.02). In contrast, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels were not associated with mortality in the multivariate model that included secretoneurin measurements, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide did not improve patient classification on top of age. Secretoneurin levels were also associated with hospital mortality after adjusting for other risk factors and improved patient classification in cohort #2. In both cohorts, the optimal cutoff for secretoneurin levels at ICU admission to predict hospital mortality was ≈ 175 pmol/L, and higher levels were associated with mortality also when adjusting for Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. CONCLUSIONS Secretoneurin levels provide incremental information to established risk indices for the prediction of mortality and shock in critically ill patients with severe infections.

Progenitor cell recruitment during individualized high-flow, very-large-volume apheresis for autologous transplantation improves collection efficiency

BACKGROUND: Individual adaptation of processed patient's blood volume (PBV) should reduce number and/or duration of autologous peripheral blood progenitor cell (PBPC) collections. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The durations of leukapheresis procedures were adapted by means of an interim analysis of harvested CD34+ cells to obtain the intended yield of CD34+ within as few and/or short as possible leukapheresis procedures. Absolute efficiency (AE; CD34+/kg body weight) and relative efficiency (RE; total CD34+ yield of single apheresis/total number of preapheresis CD34+) were calculated, assuming an intraapheresis recruitment if RE was greater than 1, and a yield prediction models for adults was generated. RESULTS: A total of 196 adults required a total of 266 PBPC collections. The median AE was 7.99 x 10(6), and the median RE was 1.76. The prediction model for AE showed a satisfactory predictive value for preapheresis CD34+ only. The prediction model for RE also showed a low predictive value (R2 = 0.36). Twenty-eight children underwent 44 PBPC collections. The median AE was 12.13 x 10(6), and the median RE was 1.62. Major complications comprised bleeding episodes related to central venous catheters (n = 4) and severe thrombocytopenia of less than 10 x 10(9) per L (n = 16). CONCLUSION: A CD34+ interim analysis is a suitable tool for individual adaptation of the duration of leukapheresis. During leukapheresis, a substantial recruitment of CD34+ was observed, resulting in a RE of greater than 1 in more than 75 percent of patients. The upper limit of processed PBV showing an intraapheresis CD34+ recruitment is higher than in a standard large-volume leukapheresis. Therefore, a reduction of individually needed PBPC collections by means of a further escalation of the processed PBV seems possible.

The association of the composite IL-1 genotype with periodontitis progression and/or treatment outcomes: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Genetically transmitted traits such as cytokine gene polymorphisms may accentuate the host inflammatory response to the bacterial challenge and influence susceptibility to periodontitis. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the evidence of an association between the interleukin-1 (IL-1) composite genotype, i.e. presence of the allele 2 in the gene clusters IL-1A-889 and in IL-1B +3953, and periodontitis progression and/or treatment outcomes. Material and Methods: Based on the focused question, a search was conducted for longitudinal clinical trials comparing progression of periodontitis and/or treatment outcomes in IL-1 genotype-positive (carrying allele 2) and IL-1 genotype-negative (not carrying allele 2) subjects. A search in the National Library of Medicine computerized bibliographic database MEDLINE and a manual search were performed. Selection of publications, extraction of data and validity assessment were made independently by two reviewers. RESULTS: The search provided 122 titles of which 11 longitudinal publications were included. The heterogeneity of the data prevented the performance of a meta-analysis. While findings from some publications rejected a possible role of IL-1 composite genotype on progression of periodontitis after various therapies, other reported a prognostic value for disease progression of the positive IL-1 genotype status. When assessed on a multivariate risk assessment model, several publications concluded that the assessment of the IL-1 composite genotype in conjunction with other covariates (e.g. smoking and presence of specific bacteria) may provide additional information on disease progression. The small sample size of the available publications, however, requires caution in the interpretation of the results. CONCLUSION: Based on these findings, (i) there is insufficient evidence to establish if a positive IL-1 genotype status contributes to progression of periodontitis and/or treatment outcomes. Therefore, (ii) results obtained with commercially available tests should be interpreted with caution.

Admission blood glucose is an independent predictive factor for hospital mortality in polytraumatised patients

PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to analyse a possible association of admission blood glucose with hospital mortality of polytraumatised patients and to develop an outcome prediction model for this patient group. METHODS: The outcome of adult polytraumatised patients admitted to the University Hospital of Berne, Switzerland, between 2002 and 2004 with an ISS > or = 17, and more than one severely injured organ system was retrospectively analysed. RESULTS: The inclusion criteria were met by 555 patients, of which 108 (19.5%) died. Hyperglycaemia proved to be an independent predictor for hospital mortality (P < 0.0001), following multiple regression analysis. After inclusion of admission blood glucose, the calculated mortality prediction model performed better than currently described models (P < 0.0001, AUC 0.924). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective, single-centre study in polytraumatised patients, admission blood glucose proved to be an independent predictor of hospital mortality following regression analysis controlling for age, gender, injury severity and other laboratory parameters. A reliable admission blood glucose-based mortality prediction model for polytraumatised patients could be established. This observation may be helpful in improving the precision of future outcome prediction models for polytraumatised patients. These observations warrant further prospective evaluation.

Can infant lung function predict respiratory morbidity during the first year of life in preterm infants?

Compared with term-born infants, preterm infants have increased respiratory morbidity in the first year of life. We investigated whether lung function tests performed near term predict subsequent respiratory morbidity during the first year of life and compared this to standard clinical parameters in preterms.The prospective birth cohort included randomly selected preterm infants with and without bronchopulmonary dysplasia. Lung function (tidal breathing and multiple-breath washout) was measured at 44 weeks post-menstrual age during natural sleep. We assessed respiratory morbidity (wheeze, hospitalisation, inhalation and home oxygen therapy) after 1 year using a standardised questionnaire. We first assessed the association between lung function and subsequent respiratory morbidity. Secondly, we compared the predictive power of standard clinical predictors with and without lung function data.In 166 preterm infants, tidal volume, time to peak tidal expiratory flow/expiratory time ratio and respiratory rate were significantly associated with subsequent wheeze. In comparison with standard clinical predictors, lung function did not improve the prediction of later respiratory morbidity in an individual child.Although associated with later wheeze, noninvasive infant lung function shows large physiological variability and does not add to clinically relevant risk prediction for subsequent respiratory morbidity in an individual preterm.

C-reactive protein predicts mortality in patients referred for coronary angiography and symptoms of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

AIMS Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) has a different pathophysiological background compared to heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Tailored risk prediction in this separate heart failure group with a high mortality rate is of major importance. Inflammation may play an important role in the pathogenesis of HFpEF because of its significant contribution to myocardial fibrosis. We therefore aimed to assess the predictive value of C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients with HFpEF. METHODS AND RESULTS Plasma levels of CRP were determined in 459 patients with HFpEF in the LUdwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study using a high-sensitivity assay. During a median follow-up of 9.7 years 40% of these patients died. CRP predicted all-cause mortality with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.20 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.40, P = 0.018] and cardiovascular mortality with a HR of 1.32 (95% CI 1.08-1.62, P = 0.005) per increase of one standard deviation. CRP was a significantly stronger mortality predictor in HFpEF patients than in a control group of 522 HFrEF patients (for interaction, P = 0.015). Furthermore, CRP added prognostic value to N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP): the lowest 5-year mortality rate of 6.8% was observed for patients in the lowest tertile of Nt-proBNP as well as CRP. The mortality risk peaked in the group combining the highest values of Nt-proBNP and CRP with a 5-year rate of 36.5%. CONCLUSION It was found that CRP was an independent and strong predictor of mortality in HFpEF. This observation may reflect immunological processes with an adverse impact on the course of HFpEF.

Association of electrocardiogram abnormalities and incident heart failure events

BACKGROUND Unless effective preventive strategies are implemented, aging of the population will result in a significant worsening of the heart failure (HF) epidemic. Few data exist on whether baseline electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities can refine risk prediction for HF. METHODS We examined a prospective cohort of 2,915 participants aged 70 to 79 years without preexisting HF, enrolled between April 1997 and June 1998 in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study. Minnesota Code was used to define major and minor ECG abnormalities at baseline and at year 4 follow-up. Using Cox models, we assessed (1) the association between ECG abnormalities and incident HF and (2) the incremental value of adding ECG to the Health ABC HF Risk Score using the net reclassification index. RESULTS At baseline, 380 participants (13.0%) had minor, and 620 (21.3%) had major ECG abnormalities. During a median follow-up of 11.4 years, 485 participants (16.6%) developed incident HF. After adjusting for the Health ABC HF Risk Score variables, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.27 (95% CI 0.96-1.68) for minor and 1.99 (95% CI 1.61-2.44) for major ECG abnormalities. At year 4, 263 participants developed new and 549 had persistent abnormalities; both were associated with increased subsequent HF risk (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.38-2.72 for new and HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.82-3.02 for persistent ECG abnormalities). Baseline ECG correctly reclassified 10.5% of patients with HF events, 0.8% of those without HF events, and 1.4% of the overall population. The net reclassification index across the Health ABC HF risk categories was 0.11 (95% CI 0.03-0.19). CONCLUSIONS Among older adults, baseline and new ECG abnormalities are independently associated with increased risk of HF. The contribution of ECG screening for targeted prevention of HF should be evaluated in clinical trials.

Distinct characteristics of e13a2 versus e14a2 BCR-ABL1 driven chronic myeloid leukemia under first-line therapy with imatinib

The vast majority of chronic myeloid leukemia patients express a BCR-ABL1 fusion gene mRNA encoding a 210 kDa tyrosine kinase which promotes leukemic transformation. A possible differential impact of the corresponding BCR-ABL1 transcript variants e13a2 ("b2a2") and e14a2 ("b3a2") on disease phenotype and outcome is still a subject of debate. A total of 1105 newly diagnosed imatinib-treated patients were analyzed according to transcript type at diagnosis (e13a2, n=451; e14a2, n=496; e13a2+e14a2, n=158). No differences regarding age, sex, or Euro risk score were observed. A significant difference was found between e13a2 and e14a2 when comparing white blood cells (88 vs. 65 × 10(9)/L, respectively; P<0.001) and platelets (296 vs. 430 × 10(9)/L, respectively; P<0.001) at diagnosis, indicating a distinct disease phenotype. No significant difference was observed regarding other hematologic features, including spleen size and hematologic adverse events, during imatinib-based therapies. Cumulative molecular response was inferior in e13a2 patients (P=0.002 for major molecular response; P<0.001 for MR4). No difference was observed with regard to cytogenetic response and overall survival. In conclusion, e13a2 and e14a2 chronic myeloid leukemia seem to represent distinct biological entities. However, clinical outcome under imatinib treatment was comparable and no risk prediction can be made according to e13a2 versus e14a2 BCR-ABL1 transcript type at diagnosis. (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:00055874).

Good reproducibility of heart rate variability after orthostatic challenge in patients with a history of acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND: Several parameters of heart rate variability (HRV) have been shown to predict the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in cardiac patients. There is consensus that risk prediction is increased when measuring HRV during specific provocations such as orthostatic challenge. For the first time, we provide data on reproducibility of such a test in patients with a history of acute coronary syndrome. METHODS: Sixty male patients (65+/-8years) with a history of acute coronary syndrome on stable medication were included. HRV was measured in supine (5min) and standing (5min) position on 2 occasions separated by two weeks. For risk assessment relevant time-domain [standard deviation of all R-R intervals (SDNN) and root mean squared standard differences between adjacent R-R intervals (RMSSD)], frequency domain [low-frequency power (LF), high-frequency power (HF) and LF/HF power ratio] and short-term fractal scaling component (DF1) were computed. Absolute reproducibility was assessed with the standard errors of the mean (SEM) and 95% limits of random variation, and relative reproducibility by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). RESULTS: We found comparable SEMs and ICCs in supine position and after an orthostatic challenge test. All ICCs were good to excellent (ICCs between 0.636 and 0.869). CONCLUSIONS: Reproducibility of HRV parameters during orthostatic challenge is good and comparable with supine position.

Collaborative Research in Childhood Cancer Survivorship: The Current Landscape.

Survivors of childhood cancer carry a substantial burden of morbidity and are at increased risk for premature death. Furthermore, clear associations exist between specific therapeutic exposures and the risk for a variety of long-term complications. The entire landscape of health issues encountered for decades after successful completion of treatment is currently being explored in various collaborative research settings. These settings include large population-based or multi-institutional cohorts and single-institution studies. The ascertainment of outcomes has depended on self-reporting, linkage to registries, or clinical assessments. Survivorship research in the cooperative group setting, such as the Children's Oncology Group, has leveraged the clinical trials infrastructure to explore the molecular underpinnings of treatment-related adverse events, and to understand specific complications in the setting of randomized risk-reduction strategies. This review highlights the salient findings from these large collaborative initiatives, emphasizing the need for life-long follow-up of survivors of childhood cancer, and describing the development of several guidelines and efforts toward harmonization. Finally, the review reinforces the need to identify populations at highest risk, facilitating the development of risk prediction models that would allow for targeted interventions across the entire trajectory of survivorship.

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 Is an Independent and Specific Predictor of Mortality in Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction

BACKGROUND Strategies to improve risk prediction are of major importance in patients with heart failure (HF). Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) is an endocrine regulator of phosphate and vitamin D homeostasis associated with an increased cardiovascular risk. We aimed to assess the prognostic effect of FGF-23 on mortality in HF patients with a particular focus on differences between patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction and patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). METHODS AND RESULTS FGF-23 levels were measured in 980 patients with HF enrolled in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study including 511 patients with HFrEF and 469 patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction and a median follow-up time of 8.6 years. FGF-23 was additionally measured in a second cohort comprising 320 patients with advanced HFrEF. FGF-23 was independently associated with mortality with an adjusted hazard ratio per 1-SD increase of 1.30 (95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.48; P<0.001) in patients with HFrEF, whereas no such association was found in patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction (for interaction, P=0.043). External validation confirmed the significant association with mortality with an adjusted hazard ratio per 1 SD of 1.23 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.60; P=0.027). FGF-23 demonstrated an increased discriminatory power for mortality in addition to N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (C-statistic: 0.59 versus 0.63) and an improvement in net reclassification index (39.6%; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS FGF-23 is independently associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients with HFrEF but not in those with HF with preserved ejection fraction, suggesting a different pathophysiologic role for both entities.

Precision medicine in patients with allergic diseases: Airway diseases and atopic dermatitis-PRACTALL document of the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology and the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology

In this consensus document we summarize the current knowledge on major asthma, rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis endotypes under the auspices of the PRACTALL collaboration platform. PRACTALL is an initiative of the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology and the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology aiming to harmonize the European and American approaches to best allergy practice and science. Precision medicine is of broad relevance for the management of asthma, rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis in the context of a better selection of treatment responders, risk prediction, and design of disease-modifying strategies. Progress has been made in profiling the type 2 immune response-driven asthma. The endotype driven approach for non-type 2 immune response asthma, rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis is lagging behind. Validation and qualification of biomarkers are needed to facilitate their translation into pathway-specific diagnostic tests. Wide consensus between academia, governmental regulators, and industry for further development and application of precision medicine in management of allergic diseases is of utmost importance. Improved knowledge of disease pathogenesis together with defining validated and qualified biomarkers are key approaches to precision medicine.

NT-proBNP in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: Results from the FINNRESUSCI Study

AIM To assess whether the established cardiovascular biomarker N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) provides prognostic information in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest due to ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation (OHCA-VT/VF). METHODS We measured NT-proBNP levels in 155 patients with OHCA-VT/VF enrolled into a prospective multicenter observational study in 21 ICUs in Finland. Blood samples were drawn <6h of OHCA-VT/VF and later after 24h, 48h, and 96h. The end-points were mortality and neurological outcome classified according to Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) after one year. NT-proBNP levels were compared to high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) levels and established risk scores. RESULTS NT-proBNP levels were higher in non-survivors compared to survivors on study inclusion (median 1003 [quartile (Q) 1-3 502-2457] vs. 527 [179-1284]ng/L, p=0.001) and after 24h (1913 [1012-4573] vs. 1080 [519-2210]ng/L, p<0.001). NT-proBNP levels increased from baseline to 96h after ICU admission (p<0.001). NT-proBNP levels were significantly correlated to hs-TnT levels after 24h (rho=0.27, p=0.001), but not to hs-TnT levels on study inclusion (rho=0.05, p=0.67). NT-proBNP levels at all time points were associated with clinical outcome, but only NT-proBNP levels after 24h predicted mortality and poor neurological outcome, defined as CPC 3-5, in models that adjusted for SAPS II and SOFA scores. hs-TnT levels did not add prognostic information to NT-proBNP measurements alone. CONCLUSION NT-proBNP levels at 24h improved risk assessment for poor outcome after one year on top of established risk indices, while hs-TnT measurements did not further add to risk prediction.

Reliable prediction of clinical outcome in patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced hepatic fibrosis: a validated model using objective and readily available clinical parameters.

OBJECTIVE Reliable tools to predict long-term outcome among patients with well compensated advanced liver disease due to chronic HCV infection are lacking. DESIGN Risk scores for mortality and for cirrhosis-related complications were constructed with Cox regression analysis in a derivation cohort and evaluated in a validation cohort, both including patients with chronic HCV infection and advanced fibrosis. RESULTS In the derivation cohort, 100/405 patients died during a median 8.1 (IQR 5.7-11.1) years of follow-up. Multivariate Cox analyses showed age (HR=1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.09, p<0.001), male sex (HR=1.91, 95% CI 1.10 to 3.29, p=0.021), platelet count (HR=0.91, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.95, p<0.001) and log10 aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio (HR=1.30, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.51, p=0.001) were independently associated with mortality (C statistic=0.78, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.83). In the validation cohort, 58/296 patients with cirrhosis died during a median of 6.6 (IQR 4.4-9.0) years. Among patients with estimated 5-year mortality risks <5%, 5-10% and >10%, the observed 5-year mortality rates in the derivation cohort and validation cohort were 0.9% (95% CI 0.0 to 2.7) and 2.6% (95% CI 0.0 to 6.1), 8.1% (95% CI 1.8 to 14.4) and 8.0% (95% CI 1.3 to 14.7), 21.8% (95% CI 13.2 to 30.4) and 20.9% (95% CI 13.6 to 28.1), respectively (C statistic in validation cohort = 0.76, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.83). The risk score for cirrhosis-related complications also incorporated HCV genotype (C statistic = 0.80, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.83 in the derivation cohort; and 0.74, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.79 in the validation cohort). CONCLUSIONS Prognosis of patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced liver disease can be accurately assessed with risk scores including readily available objective clinical parameters.