Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

Blind Deconvolution via Lower-Bounded Logarithmic Image Priors

In this work we devise two novel algorithms for blind deconvolution based on a family of logarithmic image priors. In contrast to recent approaches, we consider a minimalistic formulation of the blind deconvolution problem where there are only two energy terms: a least-squares term for the data fidelity and an image prior based on a lower-bounded logarithm of the norm of the image gradients. We show that this energy formulation is sufficient to achieve the state of the art in blind deconvolution with a good margin over previous methods. Much of the performance is due to the chosen prior. On the one hand, this prior is very effective in favoring sparsity of the image gradients. On the other hand, this prior is non convex. Therefore, solutions that can deal effectively with local minima of the energy become necessary. We devise two iterative minimization algorithms that at each iteration solve convex problems: one obtained via the primal-dual approach and one via majorization-minimization. While the former is computationally efficient, the latter achieves state-of-the-art performance on a public dataset.

The late Miocene to Holocene erosion pattern of the Alpine foreland basin reflects Eurasian slab unloading beneath the western Alps rather than global climate change

We synthesized published data on the erosion of the Alpine foreland basin and apatite fission-track ages from the Alps to infer the erosional sediment budget history for the past 5 m.y. The data reveal that erosion of the Alpine foreland basin is highest in front of the western Alps (between 2 and 0.6 km) and decreases eastward over a distance of 700 km to the Austrian foreland basin (similar to 200 m). For the western Alps, erosion rates are >0.6 km/m.y., while erosion rates for the eastern foreland basin and the adjacent eastern Alps are <0.1 km/m.y., except for a small-scale signal in the Tauern Window. The results yield a large ellipsoidal, orogen-crossing pattern of erosion, centered along the western Alps. We suggest that accelerated erosion of the western Alps and their foreland basin occurred in response to regional-scale surface uplift, related to lithospheric unloading of the Eurasian slab along the Eurasian-Adriatic plate boundary. While we cannot rule out recent views that global climate change led to substantial erosion of the European Alps since 5 Ma, we postulate that regional-scale tectonic processes have driven erosion during this time, modulated by an increased erosional flux in response to Quaternary glaciations.

The mass-hierarchy and CP-violation discovery reach of the LBNO long-baseline neutrino experiment

The next generation neutrino observatory proposed by the LBNO collaboration will address fundamental questions in particle and astroparticle physics. The experiment consists of a far detector, in its first stage a 20 kt LAr double phase TPC and a magnetised iron calorimeter, situated at 2300 km from CERN and a near detector based on a highpressure argon gas TPC. The long baseline provides a unique opportunity to study neutrino flavour oscillations over their 1st and 2nd oscillation maxima exploring the L/E behaviour, and distinguishing effects arising from δCP and matter. In this paper we have reevaluated the physics potential of this setup for determining the mass hierarchy (MH) and discovering CP-violation (CPV), using a conventional neutrino beam from the CERN SPS with a power of 750 kW. We use conservative assumptions on the knowledge of oscillation parameter priors and systematic uncertainties. The impact of each systematic error and the precision of oscillation prior is shown. We demonstrate that the first stage of LBNO can determine unambiguously the MH to > 5δ C.L. over the whole phase space. We show that the statistical treatment of the experiment is of very high importance, resulting in the conclusion that LBNO has ~ 100% probability to determine the MH in at most 4-5 years of running. Since the knowledge of MH is indispensable to extract δCP from the data, the first LBNO phase can convincingly give evidence for CPV on the 3δ C.L. using today’s knowledge on oscillation parameters and realistic assumptions on the systematic uncertainties.

Random Sampling with Interspike-Intervals of the Exponential Integrate and Fire Neuron: A Computational Interpretation of UP-States

Oscillations between high and low values of the membrane potential (UP and DOWN states respectively) are an ubiquitous feature of cortical neurons during slow wave sleep and anesthesia. Nevertheless, a surprisingly small number of quantitative studies have been conducted only that deal with this phenomenon’s implications for computation. Here we present a novel theory that explains on a detailed mathematical level the computational benefits of UP states. The theory is based on random sampling by means of interspike intervals (ISIs) of the exponential integrate and fire (EIF) model neuron, such that each spike is considered a sample, whose analog value corresponds to the spike’s preceding ISI. As we show, the EIF’s exponential sodium current, that kicks in when balancing a noisy membrane potential around values close to the firing threshold, leads to a particularly simple, approximative relationship between the neuron’s ISI distribution and input current. Approximation quality depends on the frequency spectrum of the current and is improved upon increasing the voltage baseline towards threshold. Thus, the conceptually simpler leaky integrate and fire neuron that is missing such an additional current boost performs consistently worse than the EIF and does not improve when voltage baseline is increased. For the EIF in contrast, the presented mechanism is particularly effective in the high-conductance regime, which is a hallmark feature of UP-states. Our theoretical results are confirmed by accompanying simulations, which were conducted for input currents of varying spectral composition. Moreover, we provide analytical estimations of the range of ISI distributions the EIF neuron can sample from at a given approximation level. Such samples may be considered by any algorithmic procedure that is based on random sampling, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo or message-passing methods. Finally, we explain how spike-based random sampling relates to existing computational theories about UP states during slow wave sleep and present possible extensions of the model in the context of spike-frequency adaptation.

P-T-t estimation of syn-kinematic strain in low-grade quartz-feldspar bearing rocks using thermodynamic modeling and 40Ar/39Ar dating techniques: example of the Plan-de-Phasy shear zone unit (Briançonnais Zone, Western Alps)

Pressure–Temperature–time (P–T–t) estimates of the syn-kinematic strain at the peak-pressure conditions reached during shallow underthrusting of the Briançonnais Zone in the Alpine subduction zone was made by thermodynamic modelling and 40Ar/39Ar dating in the Plan-de-Phasy unit (SE of the Pelvoux Massif, Western Alps). The dated phengite minerals crystallized syn-kinematically in a shear zone indicating top-to-the-N motion. By combining X-ray mapping with multi-equilibrium calculations, we estimate the phengite crystallization conditions at 270 ± 50 °C and 8.1 ± 2 kbar at an age of 45.9 ± 1.1 Ma. Combining this P–T–t estimate with data from the literature allows us to constrain the timing and geometry of Alpine continental subduction. We propose that the Briançonnais units were scalped on top of the slab during ongoing continental subduction and exhumed continuously until collision.

The tectonometamorphic evolution of the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes (internal Western Alps): review and synthesis

This study reviews and synthesizes the present knowledge on the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes, the highest tectonic elements in the Western Alps (Switzerland and Italy), which comprise pieces of pre-Alpine basement and Mesozoic cover. All of the available data are integrated in a crustal-scale kinematic model with the aim to reconstruct the Alpine tectono-metamorphic evolution of the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes. Although major uncertainties remain in the pre-Alpine geometry, the basement and cover sequences of the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes are seen as part of a thinned continental crust derived from the Adriatic margin. The earliest stages of the Alpine evolution are interpreted as recording late Cretaceous subduction of the Adria-derived Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes below the South-Alpine domain. During this subduction, several sheets of crustal material were stacked and separated by shear zones that rework remnants of their Mesozoic cover. The recently described Roisan-Cignana Shear Zone of the Dent Blanche Tectonic System represents such a shear zone, indicating that the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes represent a stack of several individual nappes. During the subsequent subduction of the Piemonte–Liguria Ocean large-scale folding of the nappe stack (including the Roisan-Cignana Shear Zone) took place under greenschist facies conditions, which indicates partial exhumation of the Dent Blanche Tectonic System. The entrance of the Briançonnais micro-continent within the subduction zone led to a drastic change in the deformation pattern of the Alpine belt, with rapid exhumation of the eclogite-facies ophiolite bearing units and thrust propagation towards the foreland. Slab breakoff probably was responsible for allowing partial melting in the mantle and Oligocene intrusions into the most internal parts of the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes. Finally, indentation of the Adriatic plate into the orogenic wedge resulted in the formation of the Vanzone back-fold, which marks the end of the pervasive ductile deformation within the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes during the earliest Miocene.

The mobility of Nb in rutile-saturated NaCl- and NaF-bearing aqueous fluids from 1-6.5 GPa and 300-800 °C

Rutile (TiO2) is an important host phase for high field strength elements (HFSE) such as Nb in metamorphic and subduction zone environments. The observed depletion of Nb in arc rocks is often explained by the hypothesis that rutile sequesters HFSE in the subducted slab and overlying sediment, and is chemically inert with respect to aqueous fluids evolved during prograde metamorphism in the forearc to subarc environment. However, field observations of exhumed terranes, and experimental studies, indicate that HFSE may be soluble in complex aqueous fluids at high pressure (i.e., >0.5 GPa) and moderate to high temperature (i.e., >300 degrees C). In this study, we investigated experimentally the mobility of Nb in NaCl- and NaF-bearing aqueous fluids in equilibrium with Nb-bearing rutile at pressure-temperature conditions applicable to fluid evolution in arc environments. Niobium concentrations in aqueous fluid at rutile saturation were measured directly by using a hydrothermal diamond-anvil cell (HDAC) and synchrotron X-ray fluorescence (SXRF) at 2.1 to 6.5 GPa and 300-500 degrees C, and indirectly by performing mass loss experiments in a piston-cylinder (PC) apparatus at similar to 1 GPa and 700-800 degrees C. The concentration of Nb in a 10 wt% NaCl aqueous fluid increases from 6 to 11 mu g/g as temperature increases from 300 to 500 degrees C, over a pressure range from 2.1 to 2.8 GPa, consistent with a positive temperature dependence. The concentration of Nb in a 20 wt% NaCl aqueous fluid varies from 55 to 150 mu g/g at 300 to 500 degrees C, over a pressure range from 1.8 to 6.4 GPa; however, there is no discernible temperature or pressure dependence. The Nb concentration in a 4 wt% NaF-bearing aqueous fluid increases from 180 to 910 mu g/g as temperature increases from 300 to 500 degrees C over the pressure range 2.1 to 6.5 GPa. The data for the F-bearing fluid indicate that the Nb content of the fluid exhibits a dependence on temperature between 300 and 500 degrees C at >= 2 GPa, but there is no observed dependence on pressure. Together, the data demonstrate that the hydrothermal mobility of Nb is strongly controlled by the composition of the fluid, consistent with published data for Ti. At all experimental conditions, however, the concentration of Nb in the fluid is always lower than coexisting rutile, consistent with a role for rutile in moderating the Nb budget of arc rocks.

The behaviour of incompatible elements during hydrous melting of metasomatized peridotite at 4–6 GPa and 1000 °C–1200 °C

Trace element behavior during hydrous melting of a metasomatized garnet–peridotite was examined at pressures of 4–6 GPa and temperatures of 1000 °C–1200 °C, conditions appropriate for fluid penetrating the mantle wedge atop the subducting slab. Experiments were performed in a rocking multi-anvil apparatus using a diamond-trap setup. The compositions of the fluid and melt phases were measured using the cryogenic LA-ICP-MS technique. The water-saturated solidus of the K-lherzolite composition is located between 900 °C and 1000 °C at 4 GPa and between 1000 °C and 1100 °C at 5 and 6 GPa. The partition coefficients between fluid or melt and clinopyroxene reveal an asymmetric MREE trough with a minimum at Dy. The clinopyroxene in equilibrium with aqueous fluids is characterized by DUfluid–cpx > DThfluid–cpx while DUmelt–cpx tends to be similar to DThmelt–cpx. The partition coefficients between fluid or melt and garnet reveal very strong light to heavy REE fractionation, DLa/DLu from 95 (hydrous melt) to 1600 (aqueous fluid). The LILE are highly incompatible with partition coefficients > 50. The behavior of HFSE are decoupled, with DZr,Hf close to 1 while DNb,Ta > 10. Garnet is characterized by DUmelt/fluid–garnet < DThmelt/fluid–garnet. A comparison of our experimental partitioning results for trivalent cations as well as the results from the literature and the calculations carried out using the lattice strain model adapted to the presence of water in the bulk system indicates that H2O in the fluid or melt phase has a prominent effect on trace element partitioning. Garnet in mantle rocks in equilibrium with an aqueous fluid is characterized by significantly higher Do(3 +) for REE in the X site of the garnet compared with the partitioning values of the optimal cation in garnet in equilibrium with hydrous melts. Our data show for the first time that the change in the nature of the mobile phase (fluid vs. melt) does affect the affinities of trace elements into the garnet crystal at conditions below the second critical endpoint of the system. The same also applies for clinopyroxene, although this is less clear. Consequently, our new data allow for refinements in predictive modeling of element transfer from the slab to the mantle wedge and of possible compositions of metasomatized mantle that sources OIB magmatism.

Selenium isotope analysis by N-TIMS: Potential and challenges

The isotope composition of selenium (Se) can provide important constraints on biological, geochemical, and cosmochemical processes taking place in different reservoirs on Earth and during planet formation. To provide precise qualitative and quantitative information on these processes, accurate and highly precise isotope data need to be obtained. The currently applied ICP-MS methods for Se isotope measurements are compromised by the necessity to perform a large number of interference corrections. Differences in these correction methods can lead to discrepancies in published Se isotope values of rock standards which are significantly higher than the acclaimed precision. An independent analytical approach applying a double spike (DS) and state-of-the-art TIMS may yield better precision due to its smaller number of interferences and could test the accuracy of data obtained by ICP-MS approaches. This study shows that the precision of Se isotope measurements performed with two different Thermo Scientific™ Triton™ Plus TIMS is distinctly deteriorated by about ±1‰ (2 s.d.) due to δ80/78Se by a memory Se signal of up to several millivolts and additional minor residual mass bias which could not be corrected for with the common isotope fractionation laws. This memory Se has a variable isotope composition with a DS fraction of up to 20% and accumulates with increasing number of measurements. Thus it represents an accumulation of Se from previous Se measurements with a potential addition from a sample or machine blank. Several cleaning techniques of the MS parts were tried to decrease the memory signal, but were not sufficient to perform precise Se isotope analysis. If these serious memory problems can be overcome in the future, the precision and accuracy of Se isotope analysis with TIMS should be significantly better than those of the current ICP-MS approaches.

Influence of sample matrix on the alkaline extraction of Cr(VI) in soils and industrial materials

An accurate and efficient determination of the highly toxic Cr(VI) in solid materials is important to determine the total Cr(VI) inventory of contaminated sites and the Cr(VI) release potential from such sites into the environment. Most commonly, total Cr(VI) is extracted from solid materials following a hot alkaline extraction procedure (US EPA method 3060A) where a complete release of water-extractable and sparingly soluble Cr(VI) phase is achieved. This work presents an evaluation of matrix effects that may occur during the hot alkaline extraction and in the determination of the total Cr(VI) inventory of variably composed contaminated soils and industrial materials (cement, fly ash) and is compared to water-extractable Cr(VI) results. Method validation including multiple extractions and matrix spiking along with chemical and mineralogical characterization showed satisfying results for total Cr(VI) contents for most of the tested materials. However, unreliable results were obtained by applying method 3060A to anoxic soils due to the degradation of organic material and/or reactions with Fe2+-bearing mineral phases. In addition, in certain samples discrepant spike recoveries have to be also attributed to sample heterogeneity. Separation of possible extracted Cr(III) by applying cation-exchange cartridges prior to solution analysis further shows that under the hot alkaline extraction conditions only Cr(VI) is present in solution in measurable amounts, whereas Cr(III) gets precipitated as amorphous Cr(OH)3(am). It is concluded that prior to routine application of method 3060A to a new material type, spiking tests are recommended for the identification of matrix effects. In addition, the mass of extracted solid material should to be well adjusted to the heterogeneity of the Cr(VI) distribution in the material in question.

Correlated cosmogenic W and Os isotopic variations in Carbo and implications for Hf-W chronology

An obstacle for establishing the chronology of iron meteorite formation using 182Hf-182W systematics (t1/2 = 8.9 Myr) is to find proper neutron fluence monitors to correct for cosmic ray modification of W isotopic composition. Recent studies showed that siderophile elements such as Pt and Os could serve such a purpose. To test and calibrate these neutron dosimeters, the isotopic compositions of W and Os were measured in a slab of the IID iron meteorite Carbo. This slab has a well-characterized noble gas depth profile reflecting different degrees of shielding to cosmic rays. The results show that W and Os isotopic ratios correlate with distance from the pre-atmospheric center. Negative correlations, barely resolved within error, were found between epsilo190Os-epsilo189Os and epsilo186Os-epsilo189Os with slopes of -0.64 ± 0.45 and -1.8(+1.9/-2.1), respectively. These Os isotope correlations broadly agree with model predictions for capture of secondary neutrons produced by cosmic ray irradiation and results reported previously for other groups of iron meteorites. Correlations were also found between epsilo182W-epsilo189Os (slope = 1.02 ± 0.37) and epsilo182W-epsilo190Os (slope = -1.38 ± 0.58). Intercepts of these two correlations yield pre-exposure epsilo182W values of -3.32 ± 0.51 and -3.62 ± 0.23, respectively (weighted average epsilo182W = -3.57 ± 0.21). This value relies on a large extrapolation leading to a large uncertainty but gives a metal-silicate segregation age of -0.5 ± 2.4 Myr after formation of the solar system. Combining the iron meteorite measurements with simulations of cosmogenic effects in iron meteorites, equations are presented to calculate and correct for cosmogenic effects on 182W using Os isotopes.

Referential hierarchies: A new look at some historical and typological patterns

This paper proposes a diachronic typology for the various patterns that have been referred to as Hierarchical Alignment or Inverse Alignment. Previous typological studies have tried to explain such patterns as grammatical reflections of a universal Referential Hierarchy, in which first person outranks second person outranks third person and humans outrank other animates outrank inanimates. However, our study shows that most of the formal properties of hierarchy-sensitive constructions are essentially predictable from their historical sources. We have identified three sources for hierarchical person marking, three for direction marking, two for obviative case marking, and one for hierarchical constituent ordering. These sources suggest that there is more than one explanation for hierarchical alignment: one is consistent with Givón’s claim that hierarchical patterns are a grammaticalization of generic topicality; another is consistent with DeLancey’s claim that hierarchies reflect the deictic distinction between present (1/2) and distant (3) participants; another is simply a new manifestation of a common asymmetrical pattern, the use of zero marking for third persons. More importantly, the evolution of hierarchical grammatical patterns does not reflect a consistent universal ranking of participants – at least in those cases where we can see (or infer) historical stages in the evolution of these properties, different historical stages appear to reflect different hierarchical rankings of participants, especially first and second person. This leads us to conclude that the diversity of hierarchical patterns is an artifact of grammatical change, and that in general, the presence of hierarchical patterns in synchronic grammars is not somehow conditioned by some more general universal hierarchy.

Virtual car accidents of epilepsy patients, interictal epileptic activity, and medication.

OBJECTIVE To investigate effects of interictal epileptic activity (IEA) and antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) on reactivity and aspects of the fitness to drive for epilepsy patients. METHODS Forty-six adult patients with demonstration of focal or generalized bursts of IEA in electroencephalography (EEG) readings within 1 year prior to inclusion irrespective of medication performed a car driving computer test or a single light flash test (39 patients performed both). Reaction times (RTs), virtual crashes, or lapses (RT ≥ 1 s in the car or flash test) were measured in an IEA burst-triggered fashion during IEA and compared with RT-measurements during unremarkable EEG findings in the same session. RESULTS IEA prolonged RTs both in the flash and car test (p < 0.001) in individual patients up to 200 ms. Generalized IEA with spike/waves (s/w) had the largest effect on RT prolongation (p < 0.001, both tests), whereas mean RT during normal EEG, age, gender, and number of AEDs had no effect. The car test was better than the flash test in detecting RT prolongations (p = 0.030). IEA increased crashes/lapses >26% in sessions with generalized IEA with s/w. The frequency of IEA-associated RT >1 s exceeded predictions (p < 0.001) based on simple RT shift, suggesting functional impairment beyond progressive RT prolongation by IEA. The number of AEDs correlated with prolonged RTs during normal EEG (p < 0.021) but not with IEA-associated RT prolongation or crashes/lapses. SIGNIFICANCE IEA prolonged RTs to varying extents, dependent on IEA type. IEA-associated RTs >1 s were more frequent than predicted, suggesting beginning cerebral decompensation of visual stimulus processing. AEDs somewhat reduced psychomotor speed, but it was mainly the IEA that contributed to an excess of virtual accidents.