The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Time-referenced effects of an internal vs. external focus of attention on muscular activity and compensatory variability

The paralysis-by-analysis phenomenon, i.e., attending to the execution of one's movement impairs performance, has gathered a lot of attention over recent years (see Wulf, 2007, for a review). Explanations of this phenomenon, e.g., the hypotheses of constrained action (Wulf et al., 2001) or of step-by-step execution (Masters, 1992; Beilock et al., 2002), however, do not refer to the level of underlying mechanisms on the level of sensorimotor control. For this purpose, a “nodal-point hypothesis” is presented here with the core assumption that skilled motor behavior is internally based on sensorimotor chains of nodal points, that attending to intermediate nodal points leads to a muscular re-freezing of the motor system at exactly and exclusively these points in time, and that this re-freezing is accompanied by the disruption of compensatory processes, resulting in an overall decrease of motor performance. Two experiments, on lever sequencing and basketball free throws, respectively, are reported that successfully tested these time-referenced predictions, i.e., showing that muscular activity is selectively increased and compensatory variability selectively decreased at movement-related nodal points if these points are in the focus of attention.

A novel allele of FILAMENTOUS FLOWER reveals new insights on the link between inflorescence and floral meristem organization and flower morphogenesis

Background The Arabidopsis FILAMENTOUS FLOWER (FIL) gene encodes a YABBY (YAB) family putative transcription factor that has been implicated in specifying abaxial cell identities and thus regulating organ polarity of lateral organs. In contrast to double mutants of fil and other YAB genes, fil single mutants display mainly floral and inflorescence morphological defects that do not reflect merely a loss of abaxial identity. Recently, FIL and other YABs have been shown to regulate meristem organization in a non-cell-autonomous manner. In a screen for new mutations affecting floral organ morphology and development, we have identified a novel allele of FIL, fil-9 and characterized its floral and meristem phenotypes. Results The fil-9 mutation results in highly variable disruptions in floral organ numbers and size, partial homeotic transformations, and in defective inflorescence organization. Examination of meristems indicates that both fil-9 inflorescence and floral meristems are enlarged as a result of an increase in cell number, and deformed. Furthermore, primordia emergence from these meristems is disrupted such that several primordia arise simultaneously instead of sequentially. Many of the organs produced by the inflorescence meristems are filamentous, yet they are not considered by the plant as flowers. The severity of both floral organs and meristem phenotypes is increased acropetally and in higher growth temperature. Conclusions Detailed analysis following the development of fil-9 inflorescence and flowers throughout flower development enabled the drawing of a causal link between multiple traits of fil-9 phenotypes. The study reinforces the suggested role of FIL in meristem organization. The loss of spatial and temporal organization of fil-9 inflorescence and floral meristems presumably leads to disrupted cell allocation to developing floral organs and to a blurring of organ whorl boundaries. This disruption is reflected in morphological and organ identity aberrations of fil-9 floral organs and in the production of filamentous organs that are not perceived as flowers. Here, we show the role of FIL in reproductive meristem development and emphasize the potential of using fil mutants to study mersitem organization and the related effects on flower morphogenesis.

Assessment of total uncertainty in cocaine and benzoylecgonine wastewater load measurements

To check the effectiveness of campaigns preventing drug abuse or indicating local effects of efforts against drug trafficking, it is beneficial to know consumed amounts of substances in a high spatial and temporal resolution. The analysis of drugs of abuse in wastewater (WW) has the potential to provide this information. In this study, the reliability of WW drug consumption estimates is assessed and a novel method presented to calculate the total uncertainty in observed WW cocaine (COC) and benzoylecgonine (BE) loads. Specifically, uncertainties resulting from discharge measurements, chemical analysis and the applied sampling scheme were addressed and three approaches presented. These consist of (i) a generic model-based procedure to investigate the influence of the sampling scheme on the uncertainty of observed or expected drug loads, (ii) a comparative analysis of two analytical methods (high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry), including an extended cross-validation by influent profiling over several days, and (iii) monitoring COC and BE concentrations in WW of the largest Swiss sewage treatment plants. In addition, the COC and BE loads observed in the sewage treatment plant of the city of Berne were used to back-calculate the COC consumption. The estimated mean daily consumed amount was 107 ± 21 g of pure COC, corresponding to 321 g of street-grade COC.

Phenotypic homogeneity and genotypic variability in a large series of congenital isolated ACTH-deficiency patients with TPIT gene mutations

Congenital isolated ACTH deficiency (IAD) is a rare disease characterized by low plasma ACTH and cortisol levels and preservation of all other pituitary hormones. This condition was poorly defined before we identified TPIT, a T-box transcription factor with a specific role in differentiation of the corticotroph lineage in mice and humans, as its principal molecular cause.

High Bee and Wasp Diversity in a Heterogeneous Tropical Farming System Compared to Protected Forest

It is a globally important challenge to meet increasing demands for resources and, at the same time, protect biodiversity and ecosystem services. Farming is usually regarded as a major threat to biodiversity due to its expansion into natural areas. We compared biodiversity of bees and wasps between heterogeneous small-scale farming areas and protected forest in northern coastal Belize, Central America. Malaise traps operated for three months during the transition from wet to dry season. Farming areas consisted of a mosaic of mixed crop types, open habitat, secondary forest, and agroforestry. Mean species richness per site (alpha diversity), as well as spatial and temporal community variation (beta diversity) of bees and wasps were equal or higher in farming areas compared to protected forest. The higher species richness and community variation in farmland was due to additional species that did not occur in the forest, whereas most species trapped in forest were also found in farming areas. The overall regional species richness (gamma diversity) increased by 70% with the inclusion of farming areas. Our results suggest that small-scale farming systems adjacent to protected forest may not only conserve, but even favour, biodiversity of some taxonomic groups. We can, however, not exclude possible declines of bee and wasp diversity in more intensified farmland or in landscapes completely covered by heterogeneous farming systems.

Spastin in the human and mouse central nervous system with special reference to its expression in the hippocampus of mouse pilocarpine model of status epilepticus and temporal lobe epilepsy

In the present in situ hybridization and immunocytochemical studies in the mouse central nervous system (CNS), a strong expression of spastin mRNA and protein was found in Purkinje cells and dentate nucleus in the cerebellum, in hippocampal principal cells and hilar neurons, in amygdala, substantia nigra, striatum, in the motor nuclei of the cranial nerves and in different layers of the cerebral cortex except piriform and entorhinal cortices where only neurons in layer II were strongly stained. Spastin protein and mRNA were weakly expressed in most of the thalamic nuclei. In selected human brain regions such as the cerebral cortex, cerebellum, hippocampus, amygdala, substania nigra and striatum, similar results were obtained. Electron microscopy showed spastin immunopositive staining in the cytoplasma, dendrites, axon terminals and nucleus. In the mouse pilocarpine model of status epilepticus and subsequent temporal lobe epilepsy, spastin expression disappeared in hilar neurons as early as at 2h during pilocarpine induced status epilepticus, and never recovered. At 7 days and 2 months after pilocarpine induced status epilepticus, spastin expression was down-regulated in granule cells in the dentate gyrus, but induced expression was found in reactive astrocytes. The demonstration of widespread distribution of spastin in functionally different brain regions in the present study may provide neuroanatomical basis to explain why different neurological, psychological disorders and cognitive impairment occur in patients with spastin mutation. Down-regulation or loss of spastin expression in hilar neurons may be related to their degeneration and may therefore initiate epileptogenetic events, leading to temporal lobe epilepsy.

Intraobserver and interobserver variability of 64-row computed tomography abdominal aortic aneurysm neck measurements

BACKGROUND: Integrity of the abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) neck is crucial for the long-term success of endovascular AAA repair (EVAR). However, suitable tools for reliable assessment of changes in small aortic volumes are lacking. The purpose of this study was to assess the intraobserver and interobserver variability of software-enhanced 64-row computed tomographic angiography (CTA) AAA neck volume measurements in patients after EVAR. METHODS: A total of 25 consecutive patients successfully treated by EVAR underwent 64-row follow-up CTA in 1.5-mm collimation. Manual CTA measurements were performed twice by three blinded and independent readers in random order with at least a 4-week interval between readings. Maximum and minimum transverse aortic neck diameters were measured twice on two different levels within the proximal neck. Volumetry of the proximal aortic neck was performed by using dedicated software. Variability was calculated as 1.96 SD of the mean arithmetic difference according to Bland and Altman. Two-sided and paired t tests were used to compare measurements. P values <.05 were considered to indicate statistical significance. RESULTS: Intraobserver agreement was excellent for dedicated aneurysmal neck volumetry, with mean differences of less than 1 mL (P > .05), whereas it was poor for transverse aortic neck diameter measurements (P < .05). However, interobserver variability was statistically significant for both neck volumetry (P < .005) and neck diameter measurements (P < .015). CONCLUSIONS: The reliability of dedicated AAA neck volumetry by using 64-row CTA is excellent for serial measurements by individual readers, but not between different readers. Therefore, studies should be performed with aortic neck volumetry by a single experienced reader.

How does spatial extent of fMRI datasets affect independent component analysis decomposition?

Spatial independent component analysis (sICA) of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) time series can generate meaningful activation maps and associated descriptive signals, which are useful to evaluate datasets of the entire brain or selected portions of it. Besides computational implications, variations in the input dataset combined with the multivariate nature of ICA may lead to different spatial or temporal readouts of brain activation phenomena. By reducing and increasing a volume of interest (VOI), we applied sICA to different datasets from real activation experiments with multislice acquisition and single or multiple sensory-motor task-induced blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signal sources with different spatial and temporal structure. Using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) methodology for accuracy evaluation and multiple regression analysis as benchmark, we compared sICA decompositions of reduced and increased VOI fMRI time-series containing auditory, motor and hemifield visual activation occurring separately or simultaneously in time. Both approaches yielded valid results; however, the results of the increased VOI approach were spatially more accurate compared to the results of the decreased VOI approach. This is consistent with the capability of sICA to take advantage of extended samples of statistical observations and suggests that sICA is more powerful with extended rather than reduced VOI datasets to delineate brain activity.