Wie robust sind Arbeitsbeziehung und Therapieerfolg ineinander verzahnt? Eine metaanalytische Bestandsaufnahme

Hintergrund: Die therapeutische Arbeitsbeziehung (alliance) ist das meistuntersuchte Prozessmerkmal in der Psychotherapieforschung schlecht hin und zeigt sich als robuster Prädiktor für Therapieerfolg (r = .275). Fragestellung: Welche Einflussfaktoren (wie beispielsweise kognitive Verhaltenstherapie in randomisierten Trials) moderieren den Zusammenhang zwischen Allianz und Erfolg? Methode: Basierend auf über zweihundert in Englisch, deutsch, französisch und italienisch verfassten Primärstudien werden mögliche Moderatoren metaanalytisch untersucht, die den Zusammenhang zwischen Allianz und Therapieerfolg beeinflussen. Resultate: Der aktuelle Stand der APA-Taskforce kann folgendermaßen zusammengefasst werden: (a) Erhebungszeitpunkt der Allianz, (b) Anzahl Patienten pro Therapeut, (b) Forscherinteresse, (c) Therapieerfolg = Abbrüche, (d) Anteil der Nicht-Weißen Bevölkerung und (e) Alkohol und -Substanzmissbrauch als Ausschlusskriterium, beeinflussen den Zusammenhang zwischen Allianz und Erfolg. Folgenden Aspekten moderieren den Zusammenhang zwischen Allianz und Therapieerfolg nicht: (a) Allianz-Messmittel und Erhebungsperspektive (Patient, Therapeut oder Beobachter), (b) Doktorarbeiten, (c) Therapietradition (Kognitive-Behaviorale, Interpersonale, psychodynamische Therapien), (d) randomisiert kontrollierte Trials, (e) manualisierte Therapien, (f ) störungsspezifische Erfolgsmessung, (g) Persönlichkeitsstörungen, (h) nicht-englisch sprachliche Manuskripte. Diskussion: Durch die Moderatoren kann ein beträchtlicher Anteil der Heterogenität erklärt werden. Die Beziehung zwischen Allianz und Therapieerfolg wird durch konzeptuelle biopsychosozialer Faktoren mitbeeinflusst.

Robust estimates of climate-induced hydrological change in a temperate mountainous region

A sustainable water resources management depends on sound information about the impacts of climate change. This information is, however, not easily derived because natural runoff variability interferes with the climate change signal. This study presents a procedure that leads to robust estimates of magnitude and Time Of Emergence (TOE) of climate-induced hydrological change that also account for the natural variability contained in the time series. Firstly, natural variability of 189 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland is sampled for 10 ENSEMBLES scenarios for the control (1984–2005) and two scenario periods (near future: 2025–2046, far future: 2074–2095) applying a bootstrap procedure. Then, the sampling distributions of mean monthly runoff are tested for significant differences with the Wilcoxon-Mann–Whitney test and for effect size with Cliff’s delta d. Finally, the TOE of a climate change induced hydrological change is determined when at least eight out of the ten hydrological projections significantly differ from natural variability. The results show that the TOE occurs in the near future period except for high-elevated catchments in late summer. The significant hydrological projections in the near future correspond, however, to only minor runoff changes. In the far future, hydrological change is statistically significant and runoff changes are substantial. Temperature change is the most important factor determining hydrological change in this mountainous region. Therefore, hydrological change depends strongly on a catchment’s mean elevation. Considering that the hydrological changes are predicted to be robust in the near future highlights the importance of accounting for these changes in water resources planning.

Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

Etomidate - a review of robust evidence for its use in various clinical scenarios

Etomidate is an intravenous hypnotic with a favourable clinical profile in haemodynamic high-risk scenarios. Currently, there is an active debate about the clinical significance of the drug's side effects and its overall risk-benefit ratio. Etomidate-induced transient adrenocortical suppression is well documented and has been associated with increased mortality in sepsis. In surgical patients at risk of hypotensive complications, however, a review of current literature provides no robust evidence to contraindicate a single-bolus etomidate induction. Large randomised controlled trials as well as additional observational data are required to compare safety of etomidate and its alternatives.

Efficient and Robust Host–Guest Antenna Composite for Light Harvesting

We report discovery of a new efficient and robust antenna composite for light harvesting. The organic dye hostasol red (HR) is strongly luminescent in aprotic solvents but only weakly luminescent in potassium zeolite L (ZL) at ambient conditions. We observed a dramatic increase of the luminescence quantum yield of HR–ZL composites if some or all exchangeable potassium cations of ZL are substituted by an organic imidazolium cation (IMZ+) and if the acceptor HR is embedded in the middle part of the channels, so that it is fully protected by the environment of the perylene dye tb-DXP. This led to the discovery of a highly efficient donor,acceptor-ZL antenna material where tb-DXP acts as donor and HR acts as acceptor. The material has a donor-to-acceptor (D/A) absorption ratio of more than 100:1 and a nearly quantitative FRET efficiency. Synthesis of this host–guest material is reported. We describe a successful procedure for achieving full sealing of the ZL channel entrances such that the guests cannot escape. This new material is of great interest for applications in luminescent solar concentrator (LSC) devices because the efficiency killing self-absorption is very low.

ROBREG: Stata module providing robust regression estimators

robreg provides a number of robust estimators for linear regression models. Among them are the high breakdown-point and high efficiency MM-estimator, the Huber and bisquare M-estimator, and the S-estimator, each supporting classic or robust standard errors. Furthermore, basic versions of the LMS/LQS (least median of squares) and LTS (least trimmed squares) estimators are provided. Note that the moremata package, also available from SSC, is required.

Robust indoor localization of narrowband signals

Many location-based services target users in indoor environments. Similar to the case of dense urban areas where many obstacles exist, indoor localization techniques suffer from outlying measurements caused by severe multipath propaga??tion and non-line-of-sight (NLOS) reception. Obstructions in the signal path caused by static or mobile objects downgrade localization accuracy. We use robust multipath mitigation techniques to detect and filter out outlying measurements in indoor environments. We validate our approach using a power-based lo??calization system with GSM. We conducted experiments without any prior knowledge of the tracked device's radio settings or the indoor radio environment. We obtained localization errors in the range of 3m even if the sensors had NLOS links to the target device.

Plant diversity effects on grassland productivity are robust to both nutrient enrichment and drought

Global change drivers are rapidly altering resource availability and biodiversity. While there is consensus that greater biodiversity increases the functioning of ecosystems, the extent to which biodiversity buffers ecosystem productivity in response to changes in resource availability remains unclear. We use data from 16 grassland experiments across North America and Europe that manipulated plant species richness and one of two essential resources—soil nutrients or water—to assess the direction and strength of the interaction between plant diversity and resource alteration on above-ground productivity and net biodiversity, complementarity, and selection effects. Despite strong increases in productivity with nutrient addition and decreases in productivity with drought, we found that resource alterations did not alter biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationships. Our results suggest that these relationships are largely determined by increases in complementarity effects along plant species richness gradients. Although nutrient addition reduced complementarity effects at high diversity, this appears to be due to high biomass in monocultures under nutrient enrichment. Our results indicate that diversity and the complementarity of species are important regulators of grassland ecosystem productivity, regardless of changes in other drivers of ecosystem function.