Evolutionary demography of long-lived monocarpic perennials: a time-lagged integral projection model

1. The evolution of flowering strategies (when and at what size to flower) in monocarpic perennials is determined by balancing current reproduction with expected future reproduction, and these are largely determined by size-specific patterns of growth and survival. However, because of the difficulty in following long-lived individuals throughout their lives, this theory has largely been tested using short-lived species (< 5 years). 2. Here, we tested this theory using the long-lived monocarpic perennial Campanula thyrsoides which can live up to 16 years. We used a novel approach that combined permanent plot and herb chronology data from a 3-year field study to parameterize and validate integral projection models (IPMs). 3. Similar to other monocarpic species, the rosette leaves of C. thyrsoides wither over winter and so size cannot be measured in the year of flowering. We therefore extended the existing IPM framework to incorporate an additional time delay that arises because flowering demography must be predicted from rosette size in the year before flowering. 4. We found that all main demographic functions (growth, survival probability, flowering probability and fecundity) were strongly size-dependent and there was a pronounced threshold size of flowering. There was good agreement between the predicted distribution of flowering ages obtained from the IPMs and that estimated in the field. Mostly, there was good agreement between the IPM predictions and the direct quantitative field measurements regarding the demographic parameters lambda, R-0 and T. We therefore conclude that the model captures the main demographic features of the field populations. 5. Elasticity analysis indicated that changes in the survival and growth function had the largest effect (c. 80%) on lambda and this was considerably larger than in short-lived monocarps. We found only weak selection pressure operating on the observed flowering strategy which was close to the predicted evolutionary stable strategy. 6. Synthesis. The extended IPM accurately described the demography of a long-lived monocarpic perennial using data collected over a relatively short period. We could show that the evolution of flowering strategies in short- and long-lived monocarps seem to follow the same general rules but with a longevity-related emphasis on survival over fecundity.

Changing epidemiology of HIV anonymous testing in Switzerland for 1996-2006

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To assess whether the prevalence of HIV positive tests in clients at five anonymous testing sites in Switzerland had increased since the end of the 1990s, and ascertain whether there had been any concurrent change in the proportions of associated risk factors. METHODS: Baseline characteristics were analysed, by groups of years, over the eleven consecutive years of data collected from the testing sites. Numbers of HIV positive tests were presented as prevalence/1000 tests performed within each category. Multivariable analyses, stratified by African nationality and risk group of heterosexuals or men who have sex with men (MSM), were done controlling simultaneously for a series of variables. Odds ratios (ORs) were reported together with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). P values were calculated from likelihood ratio tests. RESULTS: There was an increase in the prevalence of positive tests in African heterosexuals between 1996-1999 and 2004-2006, rising from 54.2 to 86.4/1000 and from 5.6 to 25.2/1000 in females and males respectively. The proportion of MSM who knew that one or more of their sexual partners was infected with HIV increased from 2% to 17% and the proportion who reported having more than five sexual partners in the preceding two years increased from 44% to 51%. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance data from anonymous testing sites continue to provide useful information on the changing epidemiology of HIV and thus inform public health strategies against HIV.

Can decision making in general surgery be based on evidence? An empirical study of Cochrane Reviews

BACKGROUND: This empirical study analyzes the current status of Cochrane Reviews (CRs) and their strength of recommendation for evidence-based decision making in the field of general surgery. METHODS: Systematic literature search of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and the Cochrane Collaboration's homepage to identify available CRs on surgical topics. Quantitative and qualitative characteristics, utilization, and formulated treatment recommendations were evaluated by 2 independent reviewers. Association of review characteristics with treatment recommendation was analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: Ninety-three CRs, including 1,403 primary studies and 246,473 patients, were identified. Mean number of included primary studies per CR was 15.1 (standard deviation [SD] 14.5) including 2,650 (SD 3,340) study patients. Two and a half (SD 8.3) nonrandomized trials were included per analyzed CR. Seventy-two (77%) CRs were published or updated in 2005 or later. Explicit treatment recommendations were given in 45 (48%). Presence of a treatment recommendation was associated with the number of included primary studies and the proportion of randomized studies. Utilization of surgical CRs remained low and showed large inter-country differences. The most surgical CRs were accessed in UK, USA, and Australia, followed by several Western and Eastern European countries. CONCLUSION: Only a minority of available CRs address surgical questions and their current usage is low. Instead of unsystematically increasing the number of surgical CRs it would be far more efficient to focus the review process on relevant surgical questions. Prioritization of CRs needs valid methods which should be developed by the scientific surgical community.

Electron transport through catechol-functionalized molecular rods

The charge transport properties of a catechol-type dithiol-terminated oligo-phenylene-ethynylene was investigated by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and by the scanning tunnelling microscopy break junction technique (STM-BJ). Single molecule charge transport experiments demonstrated the existence of high and low conductance regions. The junction conductance is rather weakly dependent on the redox state of the bridging molecule. However, a distinct dependence of junction formation probability and of relative stretching distances of the catechol- and quinone-type molecular junctions is observed. Substitution of the central catechol ring with alkoxy-moieties and the combination with a topological analysis of possible π-electron pathways through the respective molecular skeletons lead to a working hypothesis, which could rationalize the experimentally observed conductance characteristics of the redox-active nanojunctions.

Removal of Limited Nodal Disease in Patients Undergoing Radical Prostatectomy: Long-Term Results Confirm a Chance for Cure

Abstract PURPOSE: In 2003 we reported on the outcomes of 88 patients with node positive disease who underwent radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection (median 21 nodes) between 1989 and 1999. Patients with limited nodal disease appeared to have a good chance of long-term survival, even without immediate adjuvant therapy (androgen deprivation therapy and/or radiotherapy). In this study we update the followup in these patients and verify the reported projected probability of survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The projected 10-year cancer specific survival probability after the initially reported followup of 3.2 years was 60% for these patients with node positive disease. The outcome has been updated after a median followup of 15.6 years. RESULTS: Of the 39 patients with 1 positive node 7 (18%) remained biochemically relapse-free, 11 (28%) showed biochemical relapse only and 21 (54%) experienced clinical progression. Of these 39 patients 22 (57%) never required deferred androgen deprivation therapy and 12 (31%) died of prostate cancer. All patients with 2 (20) or more than 2 (29) positive nodes experienced biochemical relapse and only 5 (10%) of these 49 experienced no clinical progression. Of these 49 patients 39 (80%) received deferred androgen deprivation therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Biochemical relapse is likely in patients with limited nodal disease after radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection, but for 47% of patients this does not imply death from prostate cancer. Patients with 1 positive node have a good (75%) 10-year cancer specific survival probability and a 20% chance of remaining biochemical relapse-free even without immediate adjuvant therapy.

Demographic situation in operative medicine in Switzerland - time to react?

Objective: The decreasing proportion of physicians of Swiss origin and the increasing number of part-time jobs in operative medicine might lead to a shortage of physicians in operative disciplines in Switzerland. The objective of the present study was to analyze the current demographic situation in operative medicine in Switzerland. Methods: During the summer of 2011, a 19-item anonymous electronic questionnaire was mailed to all directors of departments in operative medicine in Switzerland. The questionnaire was designed to gather data about the characteristics of the participating departments, the demographics (including the appointment (consultant, attending or resident), the proportion of female and foreign physicians, the latter’s origin, and the number of part-time jobs with a working time between 20 and 90%), and the proportion of vacant posts. Results: Of 775 questionnaires mailed to all directors of departments in operative medicine in Switzerland, 183 (24%) were returned. Overall, 40% were female, and 42% foreign physicians. The proportion of part-time jobs amounted to 17%. Vacant posts were found in 2%. Conclusions: An expansion of study places at the medical universities and of the incentives for the incumbents in operative medicine is necessary to avert a shortage of physicians in Switzerland.

Limit theorems for nondegenerate U-statistics of continuous semimartingales

This paper presents the asymptotic theory for nondegenerate U-statistics of high frequency observations of continuous Itô semimartingales. We prove uniform convergence in probability and show a functional stable central limit theorem for the standardized version of the U-statistic. The limiting process in the central limit theorem turns out to be conditionally Gaussian with mean zero. Finally, we indicate potential statistical applications of our probabilistic results.

Beneficial Effects of a Semi-Intensive Stroke Unit are Beyond the Monitor.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Precise mechanisms underlying the effectiveness of the stroke unit (SU) are not fully established. Studies that compare monitored stroke units (semi-intensive type, SI-SU) versus an intensive care unit (ICU)-based mobile stroke team (MST-ICU) are lacking. Although inequalities in access to stroke unit care are globally improving, acute stroke patients may be admitted to Intensive Care Units for monitoring and followed by a mobile stroke team in hospital's lacking an SU with continuous cardiovascular monitoring. We aimed at comparing the stroke outcome between SI-SU and MST-ICU and hypothesized that the benefits of SI-SU are driven by additional elements other than cardiovascular monitoring, which is equally offered in both care systems. METHODS In a single-center setting, we compared the unfavorable outcomes (dependency and mortality) at 3 months in consecutive patients with ischemic stroke or spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage admitted to a stroke unit with semi-intensive monitoring (SI-SU) to a cohort of stroke patients hospitalized in an ICU and followed by a mobile stroke team (MST-ICU) during an equal observation period of 27 months. Secondary objectives included comparing mortality and the proportion of patients with excellent outcomes (modified Rankin Score (mRS) 0-1). Equal cardiovascular monitoring was offered in patients admitted in both SI-SU and MST-ICU. RESULTS 458 patients were treated in the SI-SU and compared to the MST-ICU (n = 370) cohort. The proportion of death and dependency after 3 months was significantly improved for patients in the SI-SU compared to MST-ICU (p < 0.001; aOR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.31-0.65). The shift analysis of the mRS distribution showed significant shift to the lower mRS in the SI-SU group, p < 0.001. The proportion of mortality in patients after 3 months also differed between the MST-ICU and the SI-SU (p < 0.05), but after adjusting for confounders this association was not significant (aOR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.31-1.13). The proportion of patients with excellent outcome was higher in the SI-SU (59.4 vs. 44.9%, p < 0.001) but the relationship was no more significant after adjustment (aOR = 1.17; 95% CI: 0.87-1.5). CONCLUSIONS Our study shows that moving from a stroke team in a monitored setting (ICU) to an organized stroke unit leads to a significant reduction in the 3 months unfavorable outcome in patients with an acute ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke. Cardiovascular monitoring is indispensable, but benefits of a semi-intensive Stroke Unit are driven by additional elements beyond intensive cardiovascular monitoring. This observation supports the ongoing development of Stroke Centers for efficient stroke care. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Comparative effectiveness of immediate antiretroviral therapy versus CD4-based initiation in HIV-positive individuals in high-income countries: observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND Recommendations have differed nationally and internationally with respect to the best time to start antiretroviral therapy (ART). We compared effectiveness of three strategies for initiation of ART in high-income countries for HIV-positive individuals who do not have AIDS: immediate initiation, initiation at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL, and initiation at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL. METHODS We used data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration of cohort studies in Europe and the USA. We included 55 826 individuals aged 18 years or older who were diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between January, 2000, and September, 2013, had not started ART, did not have AIDS, and had CD4 count and HIV-RNA viral load measurements within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. We estimated relative risks of death and of death or AIDS-defining illness, mean survival time, the proportion of individuals in need of ART, and the proportion of individuals with HIV-RNA viral load less than 50 copies per mL, as would have been recorded under each ART initiation strategy after 7 years of HIV diagnosis. We used the parametric g-formula to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounders. FINDINGS Median CD4 count at diagnosis of HIV infection was 376 cells per μL (IQR 222-551). Compared with immediate initiation, the estimated relative risk of death was 1·02 (95% CI 1·01-1·02) when ART was started at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL, and 1·06 (1·04-1·08) with initiation at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL. Corresponding estimates for death or AIDS-defining illness were 1·06 (1·06-1·07) and 1·20 (1·17-1·23), respectively. Compared with immediate initiation, the mean survival time at 7 years with a strategy of initiation at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL was 2 days shorter (95% CI 1-2) and at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL was 5 days shorter (4-6). 7 years after diagnosis of HIV, 100%, 98·7% (95% CI 98·6-98·7), and 92·6% (92·2-92·9) of individuals would have been in need of ART with immediate initiation, initiation at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL, and initiation at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL, respectively. Corresponding proportions of individuals with HIV-RNA viral load less than 50 copies per mL at 7 years were 87·3% (87·3-88·6), 87·4% (87·4-88·6), and 83·8% (83·6-84·9). INTERPRETATION The benefits of immediate initiation of ART, such as prolonged survival and AIDS-free survival and increased virological suppression, were small in this high-income setting with relatively low CD4 count at HIV diagnosis. The estimated beneficial effect on AIDS is less than in recently reported randomised trials. Increasing rates of HIV testing might be as important as a policy of early initiation of ART. FUNDING National Institutes of Health.

Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study.

BACKGROUND Sexual transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) 6 months after onset of symptoms has been recently documented, and Ebola virus RNA has been detected in semen of survivors up to 9 months after onset of symptoms. As countries affected by the 2013-2015 epidemic in West Africa, by far the largest to date, are declared free of Ebola virus disease (EVD), it remains unclear what threat is posed by rare sexual transmission events that could arise from survivors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We devised a compartmental mathematical model that includes sexual transmission from convalescent survivors: a SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-convalescent-recovered) transmission model. We fitted the model to weekly incidence of EVD cases from the 2014-2015 epidemic in Sierra Leone. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations showed that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a 3-month convalescent period (the two key unknown parameters of sexual transmission) create very few additional cases, but would extend the epidemic by 83 days [95% CI: 68-98 days] (p < 0.0001) on average. Strikingly, a 6-month convalescent period extended the average epidemic by 540 days (95% CI: 508-572 days), doubling the current length, despite an insignificant rise in the number of new cases generated. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our results show that reductions in the per sex act transmission probability via abstinence and condom use should reduce the number of sporadic sexual transmission events, but will not significantly reduce the epidemic size and may only minimally shorten the length of time the public health community must maintain response preparedness. While the number of infectious survivors is expected to greatly decline over the coming months, our results show that transmission events may still be expected for quite some time as each event results in a new potential cluster of non-sexual transmission. Precise measurement of the convalescent period is thus important for planning ongoing surveillance efforts.