46 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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As translation is the final step in gene expression it is particularly important to understand the processes involved in translation regulation. It was shown in the last years that a class of RNA, the non-protein-coding RNAs (ncRNAs), is involved in regulation of gene expression via various mechanisms [1]. Herein included is the prominent example of gene silencing caused by micro RNAs (miRNAs) and small interfering RNAs (siRNAs). Almost all of these ncRNA discovered so far target the mRNA in order to modulate protein biosynthesis, this is rather unexpected considering the crucial role of the ribosome during gene expression. However, recent data from our laboratory showed that there is a new class of RNAs among the well-studied ncRNAs that target the ribosome itself [2,3]. These so called ribosome-associated ncRNAs (rancRNAs) have an impact on translation regulation, mainly by interfering / modulating the rate of protein biosynthesis. Recent studies show the presence of small regulatory RNAs (sRNAs) in archaea which are involved in many biological processes including stress response and metabolic regulation [4]. To date the biological function and the targets of these archaeal sRNAs are only described for a few examples. There are reports of sRNAs binding to the 5’ as well as to the 3’ of mRNAs [5,6]. In addition to these findings, a tRNA derived fragment (tRF) of Valine tRNA was found in a genomic screen of RNAs associated with the ribosome in H. volcanii in our laboratory [3]. This Valine tRF seems to be processed in a stress-dependent manner and showed in vitro binding to the ribosome and inhibited in vitro translation. These results showed that Valine tRF is capable to regulate translation in H. volcanii by targeting the ribosome. The main goal of this project is to identify and describe novel potential regulatory rancRNAs in H. volcanii with the focus on intergenic candidates. Northern blot analyses already revealed interactions with the ribosome and showed differential expression patterns in response to stress conditions. To investigate the biological relevance of some of the ribosome-associated ncRNA candidates, knock-out and phenotypic characterization studies are done. The genomic knock out of a hypothetical ORF (198nt), where one putative rancRNA candidate (46nt) named IG33 was detected in the library at the beginning of the ORF, showed interesting growth phenotype under specific stress conditions. Furthermore a strain with an introduced start to stop codon mutation in this hypothetical ORF still shows the same phenotype indicating that rather the missing protein than the missing sRNA causes this growth phenotype.

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Out-of-body experiences (OBEs) are illusory perceptions of one's body from an elevated disembodied perspective. Recent theories postulate a double disintegration process in the personal (visual, proprioceptive and tactile disintegration) and extrapersonal (visual and vestibular disintegration) space as the basis of OBEs. Here we describe a case which corroborates and extends this hypothesis. The patient suffered from peripheral vestibular damage and presented with OBEs and lucid dreams. Analysis of the patient's behaviour revealed a failure of visuo-vestibular integration and abnormal sensitivity to visuo-tactile conflicts that have previously been shown to experimentally induce out-of-body illusions (in healthy subjects). In light of these experimental findings and the patient's symptomatology we extend an earlier model of the role of vestibular signals in OBEs. Our results advocate the involvement of subcortical bodily mechanisms in the occurrence of OBEs.

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BACKGROUND Evidence suggests that EMS-physician-guided cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OOHCA) may be associated with improved outcomes, yet randomized controlled trials are not available. The goal of this meta-analysis was to determine the association between EMS-physician- versus paramedic-guided CPR and survival after OOHCA. METHODS AND RESULTS Studies that compared EMS-physician- versus paramedic-guided CPR in OOHCA published until June 2014 were systematically searched in MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane databases. All studies were required to contain survival data. Data on study characteristics, methods, and as well as survival outcomes were extracted. A random-effects model was used for the meta-analysis due to a high degree of heterogeneity among the studies (I (2)  = 44 %). Return of spontaneous circulation [ROSC], survival to hospital admission, and survival to hospital discharge were the outcome measures. Out of 3,385 potentially eligible studies, 14 met the inclusion criteria. In the pooled analysis (n = 126,829), EMS-physician-guided CPR was associated with significantly improved outcomes compared to paramedic-guided CPR: ROSC 36.2 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 31.0 - 41.7 %) vs. 23.4 % (95 % CI 18.5 - 29.2 %) (pooled odds ratio [OR] 1.89, 95 % CI 1.36 - 2.63, p < 0.001); survival to hospital admission 30.1 % (95 % CI 24.2 - 36.7 %) vs. 19.2 % (95 % CI 12.7 - 28.1 %) (pooled OR 1.78, 95 % CI 0.97 - 3.28, p = 0.06); and survival to discharge 15.1 % (95 % CI 14.6 - 15.7 %) vs. 8.4 % (95 % CI 8.2 - 8.5 %) (pooled OR 2.03, 95 % CI 1.48 - 2.79, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS This systematic review suggests that EMS-physician-guided CPR in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is associated with improved survival outcomes.

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An accurate and efficient determination of the highly toxic Cr(VI) in solid materials is important to determine the total Cr(VI) inventory of contaminated sites and the Cr(VI) release potential from such sites into the environment. Most commonly, total Cr(VI) is extracted from solid materials following a hot alkaline extraction procedure (US EPA method 3060A) where a complete release of water-extractable and sparingly soluble Cr(VI) phase is achieved. This work presents an evaluation of matrix effects that may occur during the hot alkaline extraction and in the determination of the total Cr(VI) inventory of variably composed contaminated soils and industrial materials (cement, fly ash) and is compared to water-extractable Cr(VI) results. Method validation including multiple extractions and matrix spiking along with chemical and mineralogical characterization showed satisfying results for total Cr(VI) contents for most of the tested materials. However, unreliable results were obtained by applying method 3060A to anoxic soils due to the degradation of organic material and/or reactions with Fe2+-bearing mineral phases. In addition, in certain samples discrepant spike recoveries have to be also attributed to sample heterogeneity. Separation of possible extracted Cr(III) by applying cation-exchange cartridges prior to solution analysis further shows that under the hot alkaline extraction conditions only Cr(VI) is present in solution in measurable amounts, whereas Cr(III) gets precipitated as amorphous Cr(OH)3(am). It is concluded that prior to routine application of method 3060A to a new material type, spiking tests are recommended for the identification of matrix effects. In addition, the mass of extracted solid material should to be well adjusted to the heterogeneity of the Cr(VI) distribution in the material in question.

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In this work, electrophoretic preconcentration of protein and peptide samples in microchannels was studied theoretically using the 1D dynamic simulator GENTRANS, and experimentally combined with MS. In all configurations studied, the sample was uniformly distributed throughout the channel before power application, and driving electrodes were used as microchannel ends. In the first part, previously obtained experimental results from carrier-free systems are compared to simulation results, and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide and impurities in the sample solution are examined. Simulation provided insight into the dynamics of the transport of all components under the applied electric field and revealed the formation of a pure water zone in the channel center. In the second part, the use of an IEF procedure with simple well defined amphoteric carrier components, i.e. amino acids, for concentration and fractionation of peptides was investigated. By performing simulations a qualitative description of the analyte behavior in this system was obtained. Neurotensin and [Glu1]-Fibrinopeptide B were separated by IEF in microchannels featuring a liquid lid for simple sample handling and placement of the driving electrodes. Component distributions in the channel were detected using MALDI- and nano-ESI-MS and data were in agreement with those obtained by simulation. Dynamic simulations are demonstrated to represent an effective tool to investigate the electrophoretic behavior of all components in the microchannel.

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PURPOSE To report acute/subacute vision loss and paracentral scotomata in patients with idiopathic multifocal choroiditis/punctate inner choroidopathy due to large zones of acute photoreceptor attenuation surrounding the chorioretinal lesions. METHODS Multimodal imaging case series. RESULTS Six women and 2 men were included (mean age, 31.5 ± 5.8 years). Vision ranged from 20/20-1 to hand motion (mean, 20/364). Spectral domain optical coherence tomography demonstrated extensive attenuation of the external limiting membrane, ellipsoid and interdigitation zones, adjacent to the visible multifocal choroiditis/punctate inner choroidopathy lesions. The corresponding areas were hyperautofluorescent on fundus autofluorescence and were associated with corresponding visual field defects. Full-field electroretinogram (available in three cases) showed markedly decreased cone/rod response, and multifocal electroretinogram revealed reduced amplitudes and increased implicit times in two cases. Three patients received no treatment, the remaining were treated with oral corticosteroids (n = 4), oral acyclovir/valacyclovir (n = 2), intravitreal/posterior subtenon triamcinolone acetate (n = 3), and anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (n = 2). Visual recovery occurred in only three cases of whom two were treated. Varying morphological recovery was found in six cases, associated with decrease in hyperautofluorescence on fundus autofluorescence. CONCLUSION Multifocal choroiditis/punctate inner choroidopathy can present with transient or permanent central photoreceptor attenuation/loss. This presentation is likely a variant of multifocal choroiditis/punctate inner choroidopathy with chorioretinal atrophy. Associated changes are best evaluated using multimodal imaging.

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IRT1 and IRT2 are members of the Arabidopsis ZIP metal transporter family that are specifically induced by iron deprivation in roots and act as heterologous suppressors of yeast mutations inhibiting iron and zinc uptake. Although IRT1 and IRT2 are thought to perform redundant functions as root-specific metal transporters, insertional inactivation of the IRT1 gene alone results in typical symptoms of iron deficiency causing severe leaf chlorosis and lethality in soil. The irt1 mutation is characterized by specific developmental defects, including a drastic reduction of chloroplast thylakoid stacking into grana and lack of palisade parenchyma differentiation in leaves, reduced number of vascular bundles in stems, and irregular patterns of enlarged endodermal and cortex cells in roots. Pulse labeling with 59Fe through the root system shows that the irt1 mutation reduces iron accumulation in the shoots. Short-term labeling with 65Zn reveals no alteration in spatial distribution of zinc, but indicates a lower level of zinc accumulation. In comparison to wild-type, the irt1 mutant responds to iron and zinc deprivation by altered expression of certain zinc and iron transporter genes, which results in the activation of ZIP1 in shoots, reduction of ZIP2 transcript levels in roots, and enhanced expression of IRT2 in roots. These data support the conclusion that IRT1 is an essential metal transporter required for proper development and regulation of iron and zinc homeostasis in Arabidopsis.

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Heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) is an enzyme induced by hypoxia and reperfusion injury, and is associated with organ dysfunction in critically ill patients. Patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) are subjected to hypoxemia, brain injury, and organ dysfunction. Accordingly, we studied HO-1 among these patients. A total of 143 OHCA patients resuscitated from a shockable initial rhythm and admitted to an ICU were included, with plasma HO-1 measured at ICU admission and at 24 h. We analyzed the associations between plasma HO-1 and time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), 90-day mortality, and 12-month Cerebral Performance Category (CPC). HO-1 plasma concentrations were higher after OHCA compared with controls. HO-1 concentrations at admission and on day 1 associated with ROSC (P = 0.002 to P = 0.003). Admission and day 1 HO-1 plasma concentrations were higher in 90-day non-survivors than in survivors (P = 0.017, 0.026). In addition, poor neurological outcome (CPC 3-5) was associated with higher HO-1 plasma levels at admission (P = 0.024). Admission plasma HO-1 levels had an AUC of 0.623 to predict 90-day mortality and an AUC of 0.611 to predict CPC 3 to 5. In conclusion, we found that higher HO-1 plasma levels are associated with longer ROSC and poor long-term outcome.

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AIM To assess whether the established cardiovascular biomarker N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) provides prognostic information in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest due to ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation (OHCA-VT/VF). METHODS We measured NT-proBNP levels in 155 patients with OHCA-VT/VF enrolled into a prospective multicenter observational study in 21 ICUs in Finland. Blood samples were drawn <6h of OHCA-VT/VF and later after 24h, 48h, and 96h. The end-points were mortality and neurological outcome classified according to Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) after one year. NT-proBNP levels were compared to high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) levels and established risk scores. RESULTS NT-proBNP levels were higher in non-survivors compared to survivors on study inclusion (median 1003 [quartile (Q) 1-3 502-2457] vs. 527 [179-1284]ng/L, p=0.001) and after 24h (1913 [1012-4573] vs. 1080 [519-2210]ng/L, p<0.001). NT-proBNP levels increased from baseline to 96h after ICU admission (p<0.001). NT-proBNP levels were significantly correlated to hs-TnT levels after 24h (rho=0.27, p=0.001), but not to hs-TnT levels on study inclusion (rho=0.05, p=0.67). NT-proBNP levels at all time points were associated with clinical outcome, but only NT-proBNP levels after 24h predicted mortality and poor neurological outcome, defined as CPC 3-5, in models that adjusted for SAPS II and SOFA scores. hs-TnT levels did not add prognostic information to NT-proBNP measurements alone. CONCLUSION NT-proBNP levels at 24h improved risk assessment for poor outcome after one year on top of established risk indices, while hs-TnT measurements did not further add to risk prediction.

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BACKGROUND The application of therapeutic hypothermia (TH) for 12 to 24 hours following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has been associated with decreased mortality and improved neurological function. However, the optimal duration of cooling is not known. We aimed to investigate whether targeted temperature management (TTM) at 33 ± 1 °C for 48 hours compared to 24 hours results in a better long-term neurological outcome. METHODS The TTH48 trial is an investigator-initiated pragmatic international trial in which patients resuscitated from OHCA are randomised to TTM at 33 ± 1 °C for either 24 or 48 hours. Inclusion criteria are: age older than 17 and below 80 years; presumed cardiac origin of arrest; and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) <8, on admission. The primary outcome is neurological outcome at 6 months using the Cerebral Performance Category score (CPC) by an assessor blinded to treatment allocation and dichotomised to good (CPC 1-2) or poor (CPC 3-5) outcome. Secondary outcomes are: 6-month mortality, incidence of infection, bleeding and organ failure and CPC at hospital discharge, at day 28 and at day 90 following OHCA. Assuming that 50 % of the patients treated for 24 hours will have a poor outcome at 6 months, a study including 350 patients (175/arm) will have 80 % power (with a significance level of 5 %) to detect an absolute 15 % difference in primary outcome between treatment groups. A safety interim analysis was performed after the inclusion of 175 patients. DISCUSSION This is the first randomised trial to investigate the effect of the duration of TTM at 33 ± 1 °C in adult OHCA patients. We anticipate that the results of this trial will add significant knowledge regarding the management of cooling procedures in OHCA patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION NCT01689077.

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THE AIM OF THE STUDY There are limited data on blood pressure targets and vasopressor use following cardiac arrest. We hypothesized that hypotension and high vasopressor load are associated with poor neurological outcome following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). METHODS We included 412 patients with OHCA included in FINNRESUSCI study conducted between 2010 and 2011. Hemodynamic data and vasopressor doses were collected electronically in one, two or five minute intervals. We evaluated thresholds for time-weighted (TW) mean arterial pressure (MAP) and outcome by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and used multivariable analysis adjusting for co-morbidities, factors at resuscitation, an illness severity score, TW MAP and total vasopressor load (VL) to test associations with one-year neurologic outcome, dichotomized into either good (1-2) or poor (3-5) according to the cerebral performance category scale. RESULTS Of 412 patients, 169 patients had good and 243 patients had poor one-year outcomes. The lowest MAP during the first six hours was 58 (inter-quartile range [IQR] 56-61) mmHg in those with a poor outcome and 61 (59-63) mmHg in those with a good outcome (p<0.01), and lowest MAP was independently associated with poor outcome (OR 1.02 per mmHg, 95% CI 1.00-1.04, p=0.03). During the first 48h the median (IQR) of the TW mean MAP was 80 (78-82) mmHg in patients with poor, and 82 (81-83) mmHg in those with good outcomes (p=0.03) but in multivariable analysis TWA MAP was not associated with outcome. Vasopressor load did not predict one-year neurologic outcome. CONCLUSIONS Hypotension occurring during the first six hours after cardiac arrest is an independent predictor of poor one-year neurologic outcome. High vasopressor load was not associated with poor outcome and further randomized trials are needed to define optimal MAP targets in OHCA patients.

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Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.

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Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.