Admission blood glucose is an independent predictive factor for hospital mortality in polytraumatised patients

PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to analyse a possible association of admission blood glucose with hospital mortality of polytraumatised patients and to develop an outcome prediction model for this patient group. METHODS: The outcome of adult polytraumatised patients admitted to the University Hospital of Berne, Switzerland, between 2002 and 2004 with an ISS > or = 17, and more than one severely injured organ system was retrospectively analysed. RESULTS: The inclusion criteria were met by 555 patients, of which 108 (19.5%) died. Hyperglycaemia proved to be an independent predictor for hospital mortality (P < 0.0001), following multiple regression analysis. After inclusion of admission blood glucose, the calculated mortality prediction model performed better than currently described models (P < 0.0001, AUC 0.924). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective, single-centre study in polytraumatised patients, admission blood glucose proved to be an independent predictor of hospital mortality following regression analysis controlling for age, gender, injury severity and other laboratory parameters. A reliable admission blood glucose-based mortality prediction model for polytraumatised patients could be established. This observation may be helpful in improving the precision of future outcome prediction models for polytraumatised patients. These observations warrant further prospective evaluation.

THE SOLAR WIND AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF FAST TEMPORAL VARIATIONS OF THE HELIOSPHERIC RIBBON

We present a possible source of pickup ions (PUIs) the ribbon observed by the Interstellar Boundary EXplorer (IBEX). We suggest that a gyrating solar wind and PUIs in the ramp and in the near downstream region of the termination shock (TS) could provide a significant source of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) in the ribbon. A fraction of the solar wind and PUIs are reflected and energized during the first contact with the TS. Some of the solar wind may be reflected propagating toward the Sun but most of the solar wind ions form a gyrating beam-like distribution that persists until it is fully thermalized further downstream. Depending on the strength of the shock, these gyrating distributions can exist for many gyration periods until they are scattered/thermalized due to wave-particle interactions at the TS and downstream in the heliosheath. During this time, ENAs can be produced by charge exchange of interstellar neutral atoms with the gyrating ions. In order to determine the flux of energetic ions, we estimate the solar wind flux at the TS using pressure estimates inferred from in situ measurements. Assuming an average path length in the radial direction of the order of a few AU before the distribution of gyrating ions is thermalized, one can explain a significant fraction of the intensity of ENAs in the ribbon observed by IBEX. With a localized source and such a short integration path, this model would also allow fast time variations of the ENA flux.

Potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients: derivation and validation of a prediction model

IMPORTANCE Because effective interventions to reduce hospital readmissions are often expensive to implement, a score to predict potentially avoidable readmissions may help target the patients most likely to benefit. OBJECTIVE To derive and internally validate a prediction model for potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients using administrative and clinical data readily available prior to discharge. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Academic medical center in Boston, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS All patient discharges from any medical services between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions to 3 hospitals of the Partners HealthCare network were identified using a validated computerized algorithm based on administrative data (SQLape). A simple score was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with two-thirds of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-third as the validation cohort. RESULTS Among 10 731 eligible discharges, 2398 discharges (22.3%) were followed by a 30-day readmission, of which 879 (8.5% of all discharges) were identified as potentially avoidable. The prediction score identified 7 independent factors, referred to as the HOSPITAL score: h emoglobin at discharge, discharge from an o ncology service, s odium level at discharge, p rocedure during the index admission, i ndex t ype of admission, number of a dmissions during the last 12 months, and l ength of stay. In the validation set, 26.7% of the patients were classified as high risk, with an estimated potentially avoidable readmission risk of 18.0% (observed, 18.2%). The HOSPITAL score had fair discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.71) and had good calibration. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This simple prediction model identifies before discharge the risk of potentially avoidable 30-day readmission in medical patients. This score has potential to easily identify patients who may need more intensive transitional care interventions.

Biokinetics of nanoparticles and susceptibility to particulate exposure in a murine model of cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND Persons with cystic fibrosis (CF) are at-risk for health effects from ambient air pollution but little is known about the interaction of nanoparticles (NP) with CF lungs. Here we study the distribution of inhaled NP in a murine CF model and aim to reveal mechanisms contributing to adverse effects of inhaled particles in susceptible populations. METHODS Chloride channel defective CftrTgH (neoim) Hgu mice were used to analyze lung function, lung distribution and whole body biokinetics of inhaled NP, and inflammatory responses after intratracheal administration of NP. Distribution of 20-nm titanium dioxide NP in lungs was assessed on ultrathin sections immediately and 24 h after a one-hour NP inhalation. NP biokinetics was deduced from total and regional lung deposition and from whole body translocation of inhaled 30-nm iridium NP within 24 h after aerosol inhalation. Inflammatory responses were assessed within 7 days after carbon NP instillation. RESULTS Cftr mutant females had moderately reduced lung compliance and slightly increased airway resistance compared to wild type mice. We found no genotype dependent differences in total, regional and head deposition or in secondary-organ translocation of inhaled iridium NP. Titanium dioxide inhalation resulted in higher NP uptake by alveolar epithelial cells in Cftr mutants. Instillation of carbon NP induced a comparable acute and transient inflammatory response in both genotypes. The twofold increase of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) neutrophils in Cftr mutant compared to wild type mice at day 3 but not at days 1 and 7, indicated an impaired capacity in inflammation resolution in Cftr mutants. Concomitant to the delayed decline of neutrophils, BAL granulocyte-colony stimulating factor was augmented in Cftr mutant mice. Anti-inflammatory 15-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid was generally significantly lower in BAL of Cftr mutant than in wild type mice. CONCLUSIONS Despite lacking alterations in lung deposition and biokinetics of inhaled NP, and absence of significant differences in lung function, higher uptake of NP by alveolar epithelial cells and prolonged, acute inflammatory responses to NP exposure indicate a moderately increased susceptibility of lungs to adverse effects of inhaled NP in Cftr mutant mice and provides potential mechanisms for the increased susceptibility of CF patients to air pollution.

Development of a high- versus low-pathogenicity model of the free-living amoeba Naegleria fowleri

Species in the genus Naegleria are free-living amoebae of the soil and warm fresh water. Although around 30 species have been recognized, Naegleria fowleri is the only one that causes primary amoebic meningoencephalitis (PAM) in humans. PAM is an acute and fast progressing disease affecting the central nervous system. Most of the patients die within 1-2 weeks of exposure to the infectious water source. The fact that N. fowleri causes such fast progressing and highly lethal infections has opened many questions regarding the relevant pathogenicity factors of the amoeba. In order to investigate the pathogenesis of N. fowleri under defined experimental conditions, we developed a novel high- versus low-pathogenicity model for this pathogen. We showed that the composition of the axenic growth media influenced growth behaviour and morphology, as well as in vitro cytotoxicity and in vivo pathogenicity of N. fowleri. Trophozoites maintained in Nelson's medium were highly pathogenic for mice, demonstrated rapid in vitro proliferation, characteristic expression of surface membrane vesicles and a small cell diameter, and killed target mouse fibroblasts by both contact-dependent and -independent destruction. In contrast, N. fowleri cultured in PYNFH medium exhibited a low pathogenicity, slower growth, increased cell size and contact-dependent target cell destruction. However, cultivation of the amoeba in PYNFH medium supplemented with liver hydrolysate (LH) resulted in trophozoites that were highly pathogenic in mice, and demonstrated an intermediate proliferation rate in vitro, diminished cell diameter and contact-dependent target cell destruction. Thus, in this model, the presence of LH resulted in increased proliferation of trophozoites in vitro and enhanced pathogenicity of N. fowleri in mice. However, neither in vitro cytotoxicity mechanisms nor the presence of membrane vesicles on the surface correlated with the pathologic potential of the amoeba. This indicated that the pathogenicity of N. fowleri remains a complex interaction between as-yet-unidentified cellular mechanisms.

Independent measurement of biogenic silica in sediments by FTIR spectroscopy and PLS regression

We present an independent calibration model for the determination of biogenic silica (BSi) in sediments, developed from analysis of synthetic sediment mixtures and application of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIRS) and partial least squares regression (PLSR) modeling. In contrast to current FTIRS applications for quantifying BSi, this new calibration is independent from conventional wet-chemical techniques and their associated measurement uncertainties. This approach also removes the need for developing internal calibrations between the two methods for individual sediments records. For the independent calibration, we produced six series of different synthetic sediment mixtures using two purified diatom extracts, with one extract mixed with quartz sand, calcite, 60/40 quartz/calcite and two different natural sediments, and a second extract mixed with one of the natural sediments. A total of 306 samples—51 samples per series—yielded BSi contents ranging from 0 to 100 %. The resulting PLSR calibration model between the FTIR spectral information and the defined BSi concentration of the synthetic sediment mixtures exhibits a strong cross-validated correlation ( R2cv = 0.97) and a low root-mean square error of cross-validation (RMSECV = 4.7 %). Application of the independent calibration to natural lacustrine and marine sediments yields robust BSi reconstructions. At present, the synthetic mixtures do not include the variation in organic matter that occurs in natural samples, which may explain the somewhat lower prediction accuracy of the calibration model for organic-rich samples.

New Constraints on Dark Matter Effective Theories from Standard Model Loops

We consider an effective field theory for a gauge singlet Dirac dark matter particle interacting with the standard model fields via effective operators suppressed by the scale Λ≳1  TeV. We perform a systematic analysis of the leading loop contributions to spin-independent Dirac dark matter–nucleon scattering using renormalization group evolution between Λ and the low-energy scale probed by direct detection experiments. We find that electroweak interactions induce operator mixings such that operators that are naively velocity suppressed and spin dependent can actually contribute to spin-independent scattering. This allows us to put novel constraints on Wilson coefficients that were so far poorly bounded by direct detection. Constraints from current searches are already significantly stronger than LHC bounds, and will improve in the near future. Interestingly, the loop contribution we find is isospin violating even if the underlying theory is isospin conserving.

Range-based Weighted-likelihood Particle Filter for RSS-based Indoor Tracking

Attractive business cases in various application fields contribute to the sustained long-term interest in indoor localization and tracking by the research community. Location tracking is generally treated as a dynamic state estimation problem, consisting of two steps: (i) location estimation through measurement, and (ii) location prediction. For the estimation step, one of the most efficient and low-cost solutions is Received Signal Strength (RSS)-based ranging. However, various challenges - unrealistic propagation model, non-line of sight (NLOS), and multipath propagation - are yet to be addressed. Particle filters are a popular choice for dealing with the inherent non-linearities in both location measurements and motion dynamics. While such filters have been successfully applied to accurate, time-based ranging measurements, dealing with the more error-prone RSS based ranging is still challenging. In this work, we address the above issues with a novel, weighted likelihood, bootstrap particle filter for tracking via RSS-based ranging. Our filter weights the individual likelihoods from different anchor nodes exponentially, according to the ranging estimation. We also employ an improved propagation model for more accurate RSS-based ranging, which we suggested in recent work. We implemented and tested our algorithm in a passive localization system with IEEE 802.15.4 signals, showing that our proposed solution largely outperforms a traditional bootstrap particle filter.

Model for ranking freshwater fish farms according to their risk of infection and illustration for viral haemorrhagic septicaemia

We developed a model to calculate a quantitative risk score for individual aquaculture sites. The score indicates the risk of the site being infected with a specific fish pathogen (viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV); infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus, Koi herpes virus), and is intended to be used for risk ranking sites to support surveillance for demonstration of zone or member state freedom from these pathogens. The inputs to the model include a range of quantitative and qualitative estimates of risk factors organised into five risk themes (1) Live fish and egg movements; (2) Exposure via water; (3) On-site processing; (4) Short-distance mechanical transmission; (5) Distance-independent mechanical transmission. The calculated risk score for an individual aquaculture site is a value between zero and one and is intended to indicate the risk of a site relative to the risk of other sites (thereby allowing ranking). The model was applied to evaluate 76 rainbow trout farms in 3 countries (42 from England, 32 from Italy and 2 from Switzerland) with the aim to establish their risk of being infected with VHSV. Risk scores for farms in England and Italy showed great variation, clearly enabling ranking. Scores ranged from 0.002 to 0.254 (mean score 0.080) in England and 0.011 to 0.778 (mean of 0.130) for Italy, reflecting the diversity of infection status of farms in these countries. Requirements for broader application of the model are discussed. Cost efficient farm data collection is important to realise the benefits from a risk-based approach.

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Würm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Würm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

Age-Independent Cartilage Generation for Synovium-Based Autologous Chondrocyte Implantation.

The articular cartilage layer of synovial joints is commonly lesioned by trauma or by a degenerative joint disease. Attempts to repair the damage frequently involve the performance of autologous chondrocyte implantation (ACI). Healthy cartilage must be first removed from the joint, and then, on a separate occasion, following the isolation of the chondrocytes and their expansion in vitro, implanted within the lesion. The disadvantages of this therapeutic approach include the destruction of healthy cartilage-which may predispose the joint to osteoarthritic degeneration-the necessarily restricted availability of healthy tissue, the limited proliferative capacity of the donor cells-which declines with age-and the need for two surgical interventions. We postulated that it should be possible to induce synovial stem cells, which are characterized by high, age-independent, proliferative and chondrogenic differentiation capacities, to lay down cartilage within the outer juxtasynovial space after the transcutaneous implantation of a carrier bearing BMP-2 in a slow-release system. The chondrocytes could be isolated on-site and immediately used for ACI. To test this hypothesis, Chinchilla rabbits were used as an experimental model. A collagenous patch bearing BMP-2 in a slow-delivery vehicle was sutured to the inner face of the synovial membrane. The neoformed tissue was excised 5, 8, 11 and 14 days postimplantation for histological and histomorphometric analyses. Neoformed tissue was observed within the outer juxtasynovial space already on the 5th postimplantation day. It contained connective and adipose tissues, and a central nugget of growing cartilage. Between days 5 and 14, the absolute volume of cartilage increased, attaining a value of 12 mm(3) at the latter juncture. Bone was deposited in measurable quantities from the 11th day onwards, but owing to resorption, the net volume did not exceed 1.5 mm(3) (14th day). The findings confirm our hypothesis. The quantity of neoformed cartilage that is deposited after only 1 week within the outer juxtasynovial space would yield sufficient cells for ACI. Since the BMP-2-bearing patches would be implanted transcutaneously in humans, only one surgical or arthroscopic intervention would be called for. Moreover, most importantly, sufficient numbers of cells could be generated in patients of all ages.

Calcium Disorders in the Emergency Department: Independent Risk Factors for Mortality.

BACKGROUND Calcium disorders are common in both intensive care units and in patients with chronic kidney disease and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. It is unknown whether calcium abnormalities in unselected emergency department admissions have an impact on in-hospital mortality. METHODS This cross-sectional analysis included all admissions to the Emergency Department at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland from 2010 to 2011. For hyper- and hypocalcaemic patients with a Mann-Whitney U-test, the differences between subgroups divided by age, length of hospital stay, creatinine, sodium, chloride, phosphate, potassium and magnesium were compared. Associations between calcium disorders and 28-day in-hospital mortality were assessed using the Cox proportional hazard regression model. RESULTS 8,270 patients with calcium measurements were included in our study. Overall 264 (3.2%) patients died. 150 patients (6.13%) with hypocalcaemia and 7 patients with hypercalcaemia (6.19%) died, in contrast to 104 normocalcaemic patients (1.82%). In univariate analysis, calcium serum levels were associated with sex, mortality and pre-existing diuretic therapy (all p<0.05). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, hypocalcaemia and hypercalcaemia were independent risk factors for mortality (HR 2.00 and HR 1.88, respectively; both p<0.01). CONCLUSION Both hypocalcaemia and hypercalcaemia are associated with increased 28-day in-hospital mortality in unselected emergency department admissions.

Hyperphosphatemia Is an Independent Risk Factor for Mortality in Critically Ill Patients: Results from a Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND Phosphate imbalances or disorders have a high risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease. It is unknown if this finding extends to mortality in patients presenting at an emergency room with or without normal kidney function. METHODS AND PATIENTS This cross sectional analysis included all emergency room patients between 2010 and 2011 at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland. A multivariable cox regression model was applied to assess the association between phosphate levels and in-hospital mortality up to 28 days. RESULTS 22,239 subjects were screened for the study. Plasma phosphate concentrations were measured in 2,390 patients on hospital admission and were included in the analysis. 3.5% of the 480 patients with hypophosphatemia and 10.7% of the 215 patients with hyperphosphatemia died. In univariate analysis, phosphate levels were associated with mortality, age, diuretic therapy and kidney function (all p<0.001). In a multivariate Cox regression model, hyperphosphatemia (OR 3.29, p<0.001) was a strong independent risk factor for mortality. Hypophosphatemia was not associated with mortality (p>0.05). CONCLUSION Hyperphosphatemia is associated with 28-day in-hospital mortality in an unselected cohort of patients presenting in an emergency room.

External validation of the Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model for predicting death within 1 year after hospital admission

BACKGROUND Predicting long-term survival after admission to hospital is helpful for clinical, administrative and research purposes. The Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model was derived and internally validated to predict the risk of death within 1 year after admission. We conducted an external validation of the model in a large multicentre study. METHODS We used administrative data for all nonpsychiatric admissions of adult patients to hospitals in the provinces of Ontario (2003-2010) and Alberta (2011-2012), and to the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston (2010-2012) to calculate each patient's HOMR score at admission. The HOMR score is based on a set of parameters that captures patient demographics, health burden and severity of acute illness. We determined patient status (alive or dead) 1 year after admission using population-based registries. RESULTS The 3 validation cohorts (n = 2,862,996 in Ontario, 210 595 in Alberta and 66,683 in Boston) were distinct from each other and from the derivation cohort. The overall risk of death within 1 year after admission was 8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7% to 8.8%). The HOMR score was strongly and significantly associated with risk of death in all populations and was highly discriminative, with a C statistic ranging from 0.89 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.91) to 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.92). Observed and expected outcome risks were similar (median absolute difference in percent dying in 1 yr 0.3%, interquartile range 0.05%-2.5%). INTERPRETATION The HOMR score, calculated using routinely collected administrative data, accurately predicted the risk of death among adult patients within 1 year after admission to hospital for nonpsychiatric indications. Similar performance was seen when the score was used in geographically and temporally diverse populations. The HOMR model can be used for risk adjustment in analyses of health administrative data to predict long-term survival among hospital patients.