On Graphically Checking Goodness-of-fit of Binary Logistic Regression Models

OBJECTIVES: This paper is concerned with checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic regression models. For the practitioners of data analysis, the broad classes of procedures for checking goodness-of-fit available in the literature are described. The challenges of model checking in the context of binary logistic regression are reviewed. As a viable solution, a simple graphical procedure for checking goodness-of-fit is proposed. METHODS: The graphical procedure proposed relies on pieces of information available from any logistic analysis; the focus is on combining and presenting these in an informative way. RESULTS: The information gained using this approach is presented with three examples. In the discussion, the proposed method is put into context and compared with other graphical procedures for checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic models available in the literature. CONCLUSION: A simple graphical method can significantly improve the understanding of any logistic regression analysis and help to prevent faulty conclusions.

Long-term gas exchange characteristics as marker of deterioration in patients with cystic fibrosis

Background and Aim In patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) the architecture of the developing lungs and the ventilation of lung units are progressively affected, influencing intrapulmonary gas mixing and gas exchange. We examined the long-term course of blood gas measurements in relation to characteristics of lung function and the influence of different CFTR genotype upon this process. Methods Serial annual measurements of PaO2 and PaCO2 assessed in relation to lung function, providing functional residual capacity (FRCpleth), lung clearance index (LCI), trapped gas (VTG), airway resistance (sReff), and forced expiratory indices (FEV1, FEF50), were collected in 178 children (88 males; 90 females) with CF, over an age range of 5 to 18 years. Linear mixed model analysis and binary logistic regression analysis were used to define predominant lung function parameters influencing oxygenation and carbon dioxide elimination. Results PaO2 decreased linearly from age 5 to 18 years, and was mainly associated with FRCpleth, (p < 0.0001), FEV1 (p < 0.001), FEF50 (p < 0.002), and LCI (p < 0.002), indicating that oxygenation was associated with the degree of pulmonary hyperinflation, ventilation inhomogeneities and impeded airway function. PaCO2 showed a transitory phase of low PaCO2 values, mainly during the age range of 5 to 12 years. Both PaO2 and PaCO2 presented with different progression slopes within specific CFTR genotypes. Conclusion In the long-term evaluation of gas exchange characteristics, an association with different lung function patterns was found and was closely related to specific genotypes. Early examination of blood gases may reveal hypocarbia, presumably reflecting compensatory mechanisms to improve oxygenation.

Genomic signatures of relaxed disruptive selection associated with speciation reversal in whitefish

Background: Speciation reversal: the erosion of species differentiation via an increase in introgressive hybridization due to the weakening of previously divergent selection regimes, is thought to be an important, yet poorly understood, driver of biodiversity loss. Our study system, the Alpine whitefish (Coregonus spp.) species complex is a classic example of a recent postglacial adaptive radiation: forming an array of endemic lake flocks, with the independent origination of similar ecotypes among flocks. However, many of the lakes of the Alpine radiation have been seriously impacted by anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, resulting in a collapse in neutral genetic and phenotypic differentiation within the most polluted lakes. Here we investigate the effects of eutrophication on the selective forces that have shaped this radiation, using population genomics. We studied eight sympatric species assemblages belonging to five independent parallel adaptive radiations, and one species pair in secondary contact. We used AFLP markers, and applied FST outlier (BAYESCAN, DFDIST) and logistic regression analyses (MATSAM), to identify candidate regions for disruptive selection in the genome and their associations with adaptive traits within each lake flock. The number of outlier and adaptive trait associated loci identified per lake were then regressed against two variables (historical phosphorus concentration and contemporary oxygen concentration) representing the strength of eutrophication. Results: Whilst we identify disruptive selection candidate regions in all lake flocks, we find similar trends, across analysis methods, towards fewer disruptive selection candidate regions and fewer adaptive trait/candidate loci associations in the more polluted lakes. Conclusions: Weakened disruptive selection and a concomitant breakdown in reproductive isolating mechanisms in more polluted lakes has lead to increased gene flow between coexisting Alpine whitefish species. We hypothesize that the resulting higher rates of interspecific recombination reduce either the number or extent of genomic islands of divergence surrounding loci evolving under disruptive natural selection. This produces the negative trend seen in the number of selection candidate loci recovered during genome scans of whitefish species flocks, with increasing levels of anthropogenic eutrophication: as the likelihood decreases that AFLP restriction sites will fall within regions of heightened genomic divergence and therefore be classified as FST outlier loci. This study explores for the first time the potential effects of human-mediated relaxation of disruptive selection on heterogeneous genomic divergence between coexisting species.

Dominance and the maintenance of polymorphism in multiallelic migration-selection models with two demes

The maintenance of genetic variation in a spatially heterogeneous environment has been one of the main research themes in theoretical population genetics. Despite considerable progress in understanding the consequences of spatially structured environments on genetic variation, many problems remain unsolved. One of them concerns the relationship between the number of demes, the degree of dominance, and the maximum number of alleles that can be maintained by selection in a subdivided population. In this work, we study the potential of maintaining genetic variation in a two-deme model with deme-independent degree of intermediate dominance, which includes absence of G x E interaction as a special case. We present a thorough numerical analysis of a two-deme three-allele model, which allows us to identify dominance and selection patterns that harbor the potential for stable triallelic equilibria. The information gained by this approach is then used to construct an example in which existence and asymptotic stability of a fully polymorphic equilibrium can be proved analytically. Noteworthy, in this example the parameter range in which three alleles can coexist is maximized for intermediate migration rates. Our results can be interpreted in a specialist-generalist context and (among others) show when two specialists can coexist with a generalist in two demes if the degree of dominance is deme independent and intermediate. The dominance relation between the generalist allele and the specialist alleles play a decisive role. We also discuss linear selection on a quantitative trait and show that G x E interaction is not necessary for the maintenance of more than two alleles in two demes.

Modeling absolute differences in life expectancy with a censored skew-normal regression approach.

Parameter estimates from commonly used multivariable parametric survival regression models do not directly quantify differences in years of life expectancy. Gaussian linear regression models give results in terms of absolute mean differences, but are not appropriate in modeling life expectancy, because in many situations time to death has a negative skewed distribution. A regression approach using a skew-normal distribution would be an alternative to parametric survival models in the modeling of life expectancy, because parameter estimates can be interpreted in terms of survival time differences while allowing for skewness of the distribution. In this paper we show how to use the skew-normal regression so that censored and left-truncated observations are accounted for. With this we model differences in life expectancy using data from the Swiss National Cohort Study and from official life expectancy estimates and compare the results with those derived from commonly used survival regression models. We conclude that a censored skew-normal survival regression approach for left-truncated observations can be used to model differences in life expectancy across covariates of interest.

Macular atrophy in patients with long-term anti-VEGF treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration.

PURPOSE To identify the prevalence and progression of macular atrophy (MA) in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) patients under long-term anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy and to determine risk factors. METHOD This retrospective study included patients with neovascular AMD and ≥30 anti-VEGF injections. Macular atrophy (MA) was measured using near infrared and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). Yearly growth rate was estimated using square-root transformation to adjust for baseline area and allow for linearization of growth rate. Multiple regression with Akaike information criterion (AIC) as model selection criterion was used to estimate the influence of various parameters on MA area. RESULTS Forty-nine eyes (47 patients, mean age 77 ± 14) were included with a mean of 48 ± 13 intravitreal anti-VEGF injections (ranibizumab:37 ± 11, aflibercept:11 ± 6, mean number of injections/year 8 ± 2.1) over a mean treatment period of 6.2 ± 1.3 years (range 4-8.5). Mean best-corrected visual acuity improved from 57 ± 17 letters at baseline (= treatment start) to 60 ± 16 letters at last follow-up. The MA prevalence within and outside the choroidal neovascularization (CNV) border at initial measurement was 45% and increased to 74%. Mean MA area increased from 1.8 ± 2.7 mm(2) within and 0.5 ± 0.98 mm(2) outside the CNV boundary to 2.7 ± 3.4 mm(2) and 1.7 ± 1.8 mm(2) , respectively. Multivariate regression determined posterior vitreous detachment (PVD) and presence/development of intraretinal cysts (IRCs) as significant factors for total MA size (R(2) = 0.16, p = 0.02). Macular atrophy (MA) area outside the CNV border was best explained by the presence of reticular pseudodrusen (RPD) and IRC (R(2) = 0.24, p = 0.02). CONCLUSION A majority of patients show MA after long-term anti-VEGF treatment. Reticular pseudodrusen (RPD), IRC and PVD but not number of injections or treatment duration seem to be associated with the MA size.

Comparison of two scoring systems for evaluation of treatment outcome in patients with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate

Objective : To compare two scoring systems: the Huddart/Bodenham system (HB system) and the Bauru-BCLP yardstick (BCLP yardstick), which classify treatment outcome in terms of dental arch relationships in patients with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate (CBCLP). The predictive value of these scoring systems for treatment outcome was also evaluated. Design : Retrospective longitudinal study. Patients : Dental arch relationships of 43 CBCLP patients were evaluated at 6, 9, and 12 years. Setting : Treatment outcome in BCLP patients using two scoring systems. Main Outcome Measures : For each age group, the HB scores were correlated with the BCLP yardstick scores using Spearman's correlation coefficient. The predictive value of the two scoring systems was evaluated by backward regression analysis. Results : Intraobserver Kappa values for the BCLP yardstick scoring for the two observers were .506 and .627, respectively, and the interobserver reliability ranged from .427 and .581. The intraobserver reliability for the HB system ranged from .92 to .97 and the interobserver reliability from .88 to .96. The BCLP yardstick scores of 6 and 9 years together were predictors for the outcome at 12 years (explained variance 41.3%). Adding the incisor and lateral HB scores in the regression model increased the explained variance to 67%. Conclusions : The BCLP yardstick and the HB system are reliable scoring systems for evaluation of dental arch relationships of CBCLP patients. The HB system categorizes treatment outcome into similar categories as the BCLP yardstick. In case a more sensitive measure of treatment outcome is needed, selectively both scoring systems should be used.

Evidence for selection on coloration in a Panamanian poison frog: a coalescent-based approach

Aim The strawberry poison frog, Oophaga pumilio, has undergone a remarkable radiation of colour morphs in the Bocas del Toro archipelago in Panama. This species shows extreme variation in colour and pattern between populations that have been geographically isolated for < 10,000 years. While previous research has suggested the involvement of divergent selection, to date no quantitative test has examined this hypothesis. Location Bocas del Toro archipelago, Panama. Methods We use a combination of population genetics, phylogeography and phenotypic analyses to test for divergent selection in coloration in O. pumilio. Tissue samples of 88 individuals from 15 distinct populations were collected. Using these data, we developed a gene tree using the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) d-loop region. Using parameters derived from our mtDNA phylogeny, we predicted the coalescence of a hypothetical nuclear gene underlying coloration. We collected spectral reflectance and body size measurements on 94 individuals from four of the populations and performed a quantitative analysis of phenotypic divergence. Results The mtDNA d-loop tree revealed considerable polyphyly across populations. Coalescent reconstructions of gene trees within population trees revealed incomplete genotypic sorting among populations. The quantitative analysis of phenotypic divergence revealed complete lineage sorting by colour, but not by body size: populations showed non-overlapping variation in spectral reflectance measures of body coloration, while variation in body size did not separate populations. Simulations of the coalescent using parameter values derived from our empirical analyses demonstrated that the level of sorting among populations seen in colour cannot reasonably be attributed to drift. Main conclusions These results imply that divergence in colour, but not body size, is occurring at a faster rate than expected under neutral processes. Our study provides the first quantitative support for the claim that strong diversifying selection underlies colour variation in the strawberry poison frog.

Tracing of 15N in a mountain spruce forest: comparison of experimental data with th TRACE model

Despite numerous studies about nitrogen-cycling in forest ecosystems, many uncertainties remain, especially regarding the longer-term nitrogen accumulation. To contribute to filling this gap, the dynamic process-based model TRACE, with the ability to simulate 15N tracer redistribution in forest ecosystems was used to study N cycling processes in a mountain spruce forest of the northern edge of the Alps in Switzerland (Alptal, SZ). Most modeling analyses of N-cycling and C-N interactions have very limited ability to determine whether the process interactions are captured correctly. Because the interactions in such a system are complex, it is possible to get the whole-system C and N cycling right in a model without really knowing if the way the model combines fine-scale interactions to derive whole-system cycling is correct. With the possibility to simulate 15N tracer redistribution in ecosystem compartments, TRACE features a very powerful tool for the validation of fine-scale processes captured by the model. We first adapted the model to the new site (Alptal, Switzerland; long-term low-dose N-amendment experiment) by including a new algorithm for preferential water flow and by parameterizing of differences in drivers such as climate, N deposition and initial site conditions. After the calibration of key rates such as NPP and SOM turnover, we simulated patterns of 15N redistribution to compare against 15N field observations from a large-scale labeling experiment. The comparison of 15N field data with the modeled redistribution of the tracer in the soil horizons and vegetation compartments shows that the majority of fine-scale processes are captured satisfactorily. Particularly, the model is able to reproduce the fact that the largest part of the N deposition is immobilized in the soil. The discrepancies of 15N recovery in the LF and M soil horizon can be explained by the application method of the tracer and by the retention of the applied tracer by the well developed moss layer, which is not considered in the model. Discrepancies in the dynamics of foliage and litterfall 15N recovery were also observed and are related to the longevity of the needles in our mountain forest. As a next step, we will use the final Alptal version of the model to calculate the effects of climate change (temperature, CO2) and N deposition on ecosystem C sequestration in this regionally representative Norway spruce (Picea abies) stand.

Effect of Methodological and Ecological Approaches on Heterogeneity of Nest-Site Selection of a Long-Lived Vulture

The application of scientific-based conservation measures requires that sampling methodologies in studies modelling similar ecological aspects produce comparable results making easier their interpretation. We aimed to show how the choice of different methodological and ecological approaches can affect conclusions in nest-site selection studies along different Palearctic meta-populations of an indicator species. First, a multivariate analysis of the variables affecting nest-site selection in a breeding colony of cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) in central Spain was performed. Then, a meta-analysis was applied to establish how methodological and habitat-type factors determine differences and similarities in the results obtained by previous studies that have modelled the forest breeding habitat of the species. Our results revealed patterns in nesting-habitat modelling by the cinereous vulture throughout its whole range: steep and south-facing slopes, great cover of large trees and distance to human activities were generally selected. The ratio and situation of the studied plots (nests/random), the use of plots vs. polygons as sampling units and the number of years of data set determined the variability explained by the model. Moreover, a greater size of the breeding colony implied that ecological and geomorphological variables at landscape level were more influential. Additionally, human activities affected in greater proportion to colonies situated in Mediterranean forests. For the first time, a meta-analysis regarding the factors determining nest-site selection heterogeneity for a single species at broad scale was achieved. It is essential to homogenize and coordinate experimental design in modelling the selection of species' ecological requirements in order to avoid that differences in results among studies would be due to methodological heterogeneity. This would optimize best conservation and management practices for habitats and species in a global context.

Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model

Direct observations, satellite measurements and paleo records reveal strong variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre on various time scales. Here we show that variations of comparable amplitude can only be simulated in a coupled climate model in the proximity of a dynamical threshold. The threshold and the associated dynamic response is due to a positive feedback involving increased salt transport in the subpolar gyre and enhanced deep convection in its centre. A series of sensitivity experiments is performed with a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model coupled to a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model which in itself does not produce atmospheric variability. To simulate the impact of atmospheric variability, the model system is perturbed with freshwater forcing of varying, but small amplitude and multi-decadal to centennial periodicities and observational variations in wind stress. While both freshwater and wind-stress-forcing have a small direct effect on the strength of the subpolar gyre, the magnitude of the gyre's response is strongly increased in the vicinity of the threshold. Our results indicate that baroclinic self-amplification in the North Atlantic ocean can play an important role in presently observed SPG variability and thereby North Atlantic climate variability on multi-decadal scales.

Effects of local continuous release of brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) on peripheral nerve regeneration in a rat model

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of continuously released BDNF on peripheral nerve regeneration in a rat model. Initial in vitro evaluation of calcium alginate prolonged-release-capsules (PRC) proved a consistent release of BDNF for a minimum of 8 weeks. In vivo, a worst case scenario was created by surgical removal of a 20-mm section of the sciatic nerve of the rat. Twenty-four autologous fascia tubes were filled with calcium alginate spheres and sutured to the epineurium of both nerve ends. The animals were divided into 3 groups. In group 1, the fascial tube contained plain calcium alginate spheres. In groups 2 and 3, the fascial tube contained calcium alginate spheres with BDNF alone or BDNF stabilized with bovine serum albumin, respectively. The autocannibalization of the operated extremity was clinically assessed and documented in 12 additional rats. The regeneration was evaluated histologically at 4 weeks and 10 weeks in a blinded manner. The length of nerve fibers and the numbers of axons formed in the tube was measured. Over a 10-week period, axons have grown significantly faster in groups 2 and 3 with continuously released BDNF compared to the control. The rats treated with BDNF (groups 2 and 3) demonstrated significantly less autocannibalization than the control group (group 1). These results suggest that BDNF may not only stimulate faster peripheral nerve regeneration provided there is an ideal, biodegradable continuous delivery system but that it significantly reduces the neuropathic pain in the rat model.

Adjunctive local antibiotic therapy in the treatment of peri-implantitis II: clinical and radiographic outcomes

AIM: To monitor over 12 months clinical and radiographic changes occurring after adjunctive local delivery of minocycline microspheres for the treatment of peri-implantitis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In 25 partially edentulous subjects, 31 implants diagnosed with peri-implantitis were treated. Three weeks after oral hygiene instruction, mechanical debridement and local antiseptic cleansing using 0.2% chlorhexidine gel, baseline (Day 0) parameters were recorded. Minocycline microspheres (Arestin) were locally delivered to each implant site with bone loss and a probing pocket depth (PPD) >or=5 mm. Rescue therapy with Arestin was allowed at Days 180 and 270 at any site exhibiting an increase in PPD>or=2 mm from the previous visit. The following clinical parameters were recorded at four sites/implant at Day 0, 10, 30, 60, 90, 180, 270 and 360: PPD, clinical attachment level (CAL), bleeding on probing (BOP) and plaque index (PlI). RESULTS: Six implants in six subjects were either rescued or exited because of persisting active peri-implantitis. Successful implants showed a statistically significant reduction in both PPD and percentage of sites with BOP between baseline and Day 360 (P<0.05). At mesial implant sites, the mean PPD reduction amounted to 1.6 mm (95% CI: 0.9-2.2 mm, P<0.001) and was accompanied by a statistically significant reduction of the BOP value (P<0.001). Binary regression analysis showed that the clinical parameters and smoking history could not discriminate between successfully treated and rescued or exited implants at any observation time point. CONCLUSION: Non-surgical mechanical treatment of peri-implantitis lesions with adjunctive local delivery of microencapsulated minocycline led to positive effects on clinical parameters up to 12 months.

Orthotopic transplantation of v-src-expressing glioma cell lines into immunocompetent mice: establishment of a new transplantable in vivo model for malignant glioma

OBJECT: The aim of this study was to develop and characterize a new orthotopic, syngeneic, transplantable mouse brain tumor model by using the cell lines Tu-9648 and Tu-2449, which were previously isolated from tumors that arose spontaneously in glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)-v-src transgenic mice. METHODS: Striatal implantation of a 1-microl suspension of 5000 to 10,000 cells from either clone into syngeneic B6C3F1 mice resulted in tumors that were histologically identified as malignant gliomas. Prior subcutaneous inoculations with irradiated autologous cells inhibited the otherwise robust development of a microscopically infiltrating malignant glioma. Untreated mice with implanted tumor cells were killed 12 days later, when the resultant gliomas were several millimeters in diameter. Immunohistochemically, the gliomas displayed both the astroglial marker GFAP and the oncogenic form of signal transducer and activator of transcription-3 (Stat3). This form is called tyrosine-705 phosphorylated Stat3, and is found in many malignant entities, including human gliomas. Phosphorylated Stat3 was particularly prominent, not only in the nucleus but also in the plasma membrane of peripherally infiltrating glioma cells, reflecting persistent overactivation of the Janus kinase/Stat3 signal transduction pathway. The Tu-2449 cells exhibited three non-random structural chromosomal aberrations, including a deletion of the long arm of chromosome 2 and an apparently balanced translocation between chromosomes 1 and 3. The GFAP-v-src transgene was mapped to the pericentromeric region of chromosome 18. CONCLUSIONS: The high rate of engraftment, the similarity to the high-grade malignant glioma of origin, and the rapid, locally invasive growth of these tumors should make this murine model useful in testing novel therapies for human malignant gliomas.

Species-level selection reduces selfishness through competitive exclusion

Adaptation does not necessarily lead to traits which are optimal for the population. This is because selection is often the strongest at the individual or gene level. The evolution of selfishness can lead to a 'tragedy of the commons', where traits such as aggression or social cheating reduce population size and may lead to extinction. This suggests that species-level selection will result whenever species differ in the incentive to be selfish. We explore this idea in a simple model that combines individual-level selection with ecology in two interacting species. Our model is not influenced by kin or trait-group selection. We find that individual selection in combination with competitive exclusion greatly increases the likelihood that selfish species go extinct. A simple example of this would be a vertebrate species that invests heavily into squabbles over breeding sites, which is then excluded by a species that invests more into direct reproduction. A multispecies simulation shows that these extinctions result in communities containing species that are much less selfish. Our results suggest that species-level selection and community dynamics play an important role in regulating the intensity of conflicts in natural populations.