58 resultados para mean-square error (MSE)
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BACKGROUND: Elevated plasma fibrinogen levels have prospectively been associated with an increased risk of coronary artery disease in different populations. Plasma fibrinogen is a measure of systemic inflammation crucially involved in atherosclerosis. The vagus nerve curtails inflammation via a cholinergic antiinflammatory pathway. We hypothesized that lower vagal control of the heart relates to higher plasma fibrinogen levels. METHODS: Study participants were 559 employees (age 17-63 years; 89% men) of an airplane manufacturing plant in southern Germany. All subjects underwent medical examination, blood sampling, and 24-hour ambulatory heart rate recording while kept on their work routine. The root mean square of successive differences in RR intervals during the night period (nighttime RMSSD) was computed as the heart rate variability index of vagal function. RESULTS: After controlling for demographic, lifestyle, and medical factors, nighttime RMSSD explained 1.7% (P = 0.001), 0.8% (P = 0.033), and 7.8% (P = 0.007), respectively, of the variance in fibrinogen levels in all subjects, men, and women. Nighttime RMSSD and fibrinogen levels were stronger correlated in women than in men. In all workers, men, and women, respectively, there was a mean +/- SEM increase of 0.41 +/- 0.13 mg/dL, 0.28 +/- 0.13 mg/dL, and 1.16 +/- 0.41 mg/dL fibrinogen for each millisecond decrease in nighttime RMSSD. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced vagal outflow to the heart correlated with elevated plasma fibrinogen levels independent of the established cardiovascular risk factors. This relationship seemed comparably stronger in women than men. Such an autonomic mechanism might contribute to the atherosclerotic process and its thrombotic complications.
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OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between social support and coagulation parameter reactivity to mental stress in men and to determine if norepinephrine is involved. Lower social support is associated with higher basal coagulation activity and greater norepinephrine stress reactivity, which in turn, is linked with hypercoagulability. However, it is not known if low social support interacts with stress to further increase coagulation reactivity or if norepinephrine affects this association. These findings may be important for determining if low social support influences thrombosis and possible acute coronary events in response to acute stress. We investigated the relationship between social support and coagulation parameter reactivity to mental stress in men and determined if norepinephrine is involved. METHODS: We measured perceived social support in 63 medication-free nonsmoking men (age (mean +/- standard error of the mean) = 36.7 +/- 1.7 years) who underwent an acute standardized psychosocial stress task combining public speaking and mental arithmetic in front of an audience. We measured plasma D-dimer, fibrinogen, clotting Factor VII activity (FVII:C), and plasma norepinephrine at rest as well as immediately after stress and 20 minutes after stress. RESULTS: Independent of body mass index, mean arterial pressure, and age, lower social support was associated with higher D-dimer and fibrinogen levels at baseline (p < .012) and with greater increases in fibrinogen (beta = -0.36, p = .001; DeltaR(2) = .12), and D-dimer (beta = -0.21, p = .017; DeltaR(2) = .04), but not in FVII:C (p = .83) from baseline to 20 minutes after stress. General linear models revealed significant main effects of social support and stress on fibrinogen, D-dimer, and norepinephrine (p < .035). Controlling for norepinephrine did not change the significance of the reported associations between social support and the coagulation measures D-dimer and fibrinogen. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that lower social support is associated with greater coagulation activity before and after acute stress, which was unrelated to norepinephrine reactivity.
A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979
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We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.
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A lack of quantitative high resolution paleoclimate data from the Southern Hemisphere limits the ability to examine current trends within the context of long-term natural climate variability. This study presents a temperature reconstruction for southern Tasmania based on analyses of a sediment core from Duckhole Lake (43.365°S, 146.875°E). The relationship between non-destructive whole core scanning reflectance spectroscopy measurements in the visible spectrum (380–730 nm) and the instrumental temperature record (ad 1911–2000) was used to develop a calibration-in-time reflectance spectroscopy-based temperature model. Results showed that a trough in reflectance from 650 to 700 nm, which represents chlorophyll and its derivatives, was significantly correlated to annual mean temperature. A calibration model was developed (R = 0.56, p auto < 0.05, root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) = 0.21°C, five-year filtered data, calibration period 1911–2000) and applied down-core to reconstruct annual mean temperatures in southern Tasmania over the last c. 950 years. This indicated that temperatures were initially cool c. ad 1050, but steadily increased until the late ad 1100s. After a brief cool period in the ad 1200s, temperatures again increased. Temperatures steadily decreased during the ad 1600s and remained relatively stable until the start of the 20th century when they rapidly decreased, before increasing from ad 1960s onwards. Comparisons with high resolution temperature records from western Tasmania, New Zealand and South America revealed some similarities, but also highlighted differences in temperature variability across the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These are likely due to a combination of factors including the spatial variability in climate between and within regions, and differences between records that document seasonal (i.e. warm season/late summer) versus annual temperature variability. This highlights the need for further records from the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in order to constrain past natural spatial and seasonal/annual temperature variability in the region, and to accurately identify and attribute changes to natural variability and/or anthropogenic activities.
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High-resolution, well-calibrated records of lake sediments are critically important for quantitative climate reconstructions, but they remain a methodological and analytical challenge. While several comprehensive paleotemperature reconstructions have been developed across Europe, only a few quantitative high-resolution studies exist for precipitation. Here we present a calibration and verification study of lithoclastic sediment proxies from proglacial Lake Oeschinen (46°30′N, 7°44′E, 1,580 m a.s.l., north–west Swiss Alps) that are sensitive to rainfall for the period AD 1901–2008. We collected two sediment cores, one in 2007 and another in 2011. The sediments are characterized by two facies: (A) mm-laminated clastic varves and (B) turbidites. The annual character of the laminae couplets was confirmed by radiometric dating (210Pb, 137Cs) and independent flood-layer chronomarkers. Individual varves consist of a dark sand-size spring-summer layer enriched in siliciclastic minerals and a lighter clay-size calcite-rich winter layer. Three subtypes of varves are distinguished: Type I with a 1–1.5 mm fining upward sequence; Type II with a distinct fine-sand base up to 3 mm thick; and Type III containing multiple internal microlaminae caused by individual summer rainstorm deposits. Delta-fan surface samples and sediment trap data fingerprint different sediment source areas and transport processes from the watershed and confirm the instant response of sediment flux to rainfall and erosion. Based on a highly accurate, precise and reproducible chronology, we demonstrate that sediment accumulation (varve thickness) is a quantitative predictor for cumulative boreal alpine spring (May–June) and spring/summer (May–August) rainfall (rMJ = 0.71, rMJJA = 0.60, p < 0.01). Bootstrap-based verification of the calibration model reveals a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEPMJ = 32.7 mm, RMSEPMJJA = 57.8 mm) which is on the order of 10–13 % of mean MJ and MJJA cumulative precipitation, respectively. These results highlight the potential of the Lake Oeschinen sediments for high-resolution reconstructions of past rainfall conditions in the northern Swiss Alps, central and eastern France and south-west Germany.
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In this paper, we show statistical analyses of several types of traffic sources in a 3G network, namely voice, video and data sources. For each traffic source type, measurements were collected in order to, on the one hand, gain better understanding of the statistical characteristics of the sources and, on the other hand, enable forecasting traffic behaviour in the network. The latter can be used to estimate service times and quality of service parameters. The probability density function, mean, variance, mean square deviation, skewness and kurtosis of the interarrival times are estimated by Wolfram Mathematica and Crystal Ball statistical tools. Based on evaluation of packet interarrival times, we show how the gamma distribution can be used in network simulations and in evaluation of available capacity in opportunistic systems. As a result, from our analyses, shape and scale parameters of gamma distribution are generated. Data can be applied also in dynamic network configuration in order to avoid potential network congestions or overflows. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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PURPOSE Segmentation of the proximal femur in digital antero-posterior (AP) pelvic radiographs is required to create a three-dimensional model of the hip joint for use in planning and treatment. However, manually extracting the femoral contour is tedious and prone to subjective bias, while automatic segmentation must accommodate poor image quality, anatomical structure overlap, and femur deformity. A new method was developed for femur segmentation in AP pelvic radiographs. METHODS Using manual annotations on 100 AP pelvic radiographs, a statistical shape model (SSM) and a statistical appearance model (SAM) of the femur contour were constructed. The SSM and SAM were used to segment new AP pelvic radiographs with a three-stage approach. At initialization, the mean SSM model is coarsely registered to the femur in the AP radiograph through a scaled rigid registration. Mahalanobis distance defined on the SAM is employed as the search criteria for each annotated suggested landmark location. Dynamic programming was used to eliminate ambiguities. After all landmarks are assigned, a regularized non-rigid registration method deforms the current mean shape of SSM to produce a new segmentation of proximal femur. The second and third stages are iteratively executed to convergence. RESULTS A set of 100 clinical AP pelvic radiographs (not used for training) were evaluated. The mean segmentation error was [Formula: see text], requiring [Formula: see text] s per case when implemented with Matlab. The influence of the initialization on segmentation results was tested by six clinicians, demonstrating no significance difference. CONCLUSIONS A fast, robust and accurate method for femur segmentation in digital AP pelvic radiographs was developed by combining SSM and SAM with dynamic programming. This method can be extended to segmentation of other bony structures such as the pelvis.
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This study aimed to characterize the nociceptive withdrawal reflex (NWR) and to define the nociceptive threshold in 25 healthy, non-medicated experimental sheep in standing posture. Electrical stimulation of the dorsal lateral digital nerves of the right thoracic and the pelvic limb was performed and surface-electromyography (EMG) from the deltoid (all animals) and the femoral biceps (18 animals) or the peroneus tertius muscles (7 animals) was recorded. The behavioural reaction following each stimulation was scored on a scale from 0 (no reaction) to 5 (strong whole body reaction). A train-of-five 1 ms constant-current pulse was used and current intensity was stepwise increased until NWR threshold intensity was reached. The NWR threshold intensity (It) was defined as the minimal stimulus intensity able to evoke a reflex with a minimal Root-Mean-Square amplitude (RMSA) of 20 μV, a minimal duration of 10 ms and a minimal reaction score of 1 (slight muscle contraction of the stimulated limb) within the time window of 20 to 130 ms post-stimulation. Based on this value, further stimulations were performed below (0.9It) and above threshold (1.5It and 2It). The stimulus-response curve was described. Data are reported as medians and interquartile ranges. At the deltoid muscle It was 4.4 mA (2.9–5.7) with an RMSA of 62 μV (30–102). At the biceps femoris muscle It was 7.0 mA (4.0–10.0) with an RMSA of 43 μV (34–50) and at the peroneus tertius muscle It was 3.4 mA (3.1–4.4) with an RMSA of 38 μV (32–46). Above threshold, RMSA was significantly increased at all muscles. Below threshold, RMSA was only significantly smaller than at It for the peroneus tertius muscle but not for the other muscles.
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OBJECTIVE To elicit and evaluate the NWR (nociceptive withdrawal reflex) in 2 and 11 day old foals, to investigate if buprenorphine causes antinociception and determine if the NWR response changes with increasing age. The effect of buprenorphine on behaviour was also evaluated. STUDY DESIGN Prospective, experimental cross-over trial. ANIMALS Nine Norwegian Fjord research foals. METHODS Buprenorphine, 10 μg kg(-1) was administered intramuscularly (IM) to the same foal at 2 days and at 11 days of age. The NWR and the effect of buprenorphine were evaluated by electromyograms recorded from the left deltoid muscle following electrical stimulation of the left lateral palmar nerve at the level of the pastern. Mentation, locomotor activity and respiratory rate were recorded before and after buprenorphine administration. RESULTS We were able to evoke the NWR and temporal summation in foals using this model. Buprenorphine decreased the root mean square amplitude following single electrical stimulation (p < 0.001) in both age groups, and increased the NWR threshold following single electrical stimulation in 2 day old foals (p = 0.0012). Repeated electrical stimulation at 2 Hz was more effective to elicit temporal summation compared to 5 Hz (p < 0.001). No effect of age upon the NWR threshold was found (p = 0.34). Sedation when left undisturbed (11 occasions), increased locomotor activity when handled (9 occasions) and tachypnea (13 occasions) were common side-effects of buprenorphine. CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE These findings indicate that buprenorphine has antinociceptive effect in foals. Opioid side effects often recognized in adult horses also occur in foals.
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A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.
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PURPOSE External beam radiation therapy is currently considered the most common treatment modality for intraocular tumors. Localization of the tumor and efficient compensation of tumor misalignment with respect to the radiation beam are crucial. According to the state of the art procedure, localization of the target volume is indirectly performed by the invasive surgical implantation of radiopaque clips or is limited to positioning the head using stereoscopic radiographies. This work represents a proof-of-concept for direct and noninvasive tumor referencing based on anterior eye topography acquired using optical coherence tomography (OCT). METHODS A prototype of a head-mounted device has been developed for automatic monitoring of tumor position and orientation in the isocentric reference frame for LINAC based treatment of intraocular tumors. Noninvasive tumor referencing is performed with six degrees of freedom based on anterior eye topography acquired using OCT and registration of a statistical eye model. The proposed prototype was tested based on enucleated pig eyes and registration accuracy was measured by comparison of the resulting transformation with tilt and torsion angles manually induced using a custom-made test bench. RESULTS Validation based on 12 enucleated pig eyes revealed an overall average registration error of 0.26 ± 0.08° in 87 ± 0.7 ms for tilting and 0.52 ± 0.03° in 94 ± 1.4 ms for torsion. Furthermore, dependency of sampling density on mean registration error was quantitatively assessed. CONCLUSIONS The tumor referencing method presented in combination with the statistical eye model introduced in the past has the potential to enable noninvasive treatment and may improve quality, efficacy, and flexibility of external beam radiotherapy of intraocular tumors.
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In this thesis, we develop an adaptive framework for Monte Carlo rendering, and more specifically for Monte Carlo Path Tracing (MCPT) and its derivatives. MCPT is attractive because it can handle a wide variety of light transport effects, such as depth of field, motion blur, indirect illumination, participating media, and others, in an elegant and unified framework. However, MCPT is a sampling-based approach, and is only guaranteed to converge in the limit, as the sampling rate grows to infinity. At finite sampling rates, MCPT renderings are often plagued by noise artifacts that can be visually distracting. The adaptive framework developed in this thesis leverages two core strategies to address noise artifacts in renderings: adaptive sampling and adaptive reconstruction. Adaptive sampling consists in increasing the sampling rate on a per pixel basis, to ensure that each pixel value is below a predefined error threshold. Adaptive reconstruction leverages the available samples on a per pixel basis, in an attempt to have an optimal trade-off between minimizing the residual noise artifacts and preserving the edges in the image. In our framework, we greedily minimize the relative Mean Squared Error (rMSE) of the rendering by iterating over sampling and reconstruction steps. Given an initial set of samples, the reconstruction step aims at producing the rendering with the lowest rMSE on a per pixel basis, and the next sampling step then further reduces the rMSE by distributing additional samples according to the magnitude of the residual rMSE of the reconstruction. This iterative approach tightly couples the adaptive sampling and adaptive reconstruction strategies, by ensuring that we only sample densely regions of the image where adaptive reconstruction cannot properly resolve the noise. In a first implementation of our framework, we demonstrate the usefulness of our greedy error minimization using a simple reconstruction scheme leveraging a filterbank of isotropic Gaussian filters. In a second implementation, we integrate a powerful edge aware filter that can adapt to the anisotropy of the image. Finally, in a third implementation, we leverage auxiliary feature buffers that encode scene information (such as surface normals, position, or texture), to improve the robustness of the reconstruction in the presence of strong noise.
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The nociceptive withdrawal reflex (NWR) model is used in animal pain research to quantify nociception. The aim of this study was to evaluate the NWR evoked by repeated stimulations in healthy, non-medicated standing sheep. Repeated electrical stimulations were applied at 5Hz for 2s to the digital nerves of the right thoracic and the pelvic limbs of 25 standing sheep. The stimulation intensities applied were fractions (0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9 and 1) of the individual previously determined nociceptive threshold (It) after single stimulation. Surface-electromyographic activity (EMG) was recorded from the deltoid, the femoral biceps or the peroneus tertius muscles. The repeated stimulation threshold (RS It) was reached if at least one stimulus in the train was followed by a reflex with a minimal root-mean-square-amplitude (RMSA) of 20μV. The behavioural reaction following each series of stimulations was scored on a scale from 0 (no reaction) to 5 (vigorous whole-body reaction). For the deltoid muscle, RS It was 2.3mA (1.6-3mA) with a reaction score of 2 (1-2) and at a fraction of 0.6 (0.5-0.8)×It. For the biceps femoris muscle, RS It was 2.9mA (2.6-4mA) with a reaction score of 1 (1-2) at a fraction of and 0.55 (0.4-0.7)×It while for the peroneus tertius muscle RS It was 3mA (2.8-3.5mA) with a reaction score of 1 (1-2) and at a fraction of 0.8 (0.8-0.95)×It. Both, RMSA and reaction scores increased significantly with increasing stimulation intensities in all muscles (p<0.001). The repeated application of electrical stimuli led to temporal summation of nociceptive inputs and therefore a reduction of the stimulus intensity evoking a withdrawal reaction in healthy, standing sheep. Data achieved in this study can now serve as reference for further clinical or experimental applications of the model in this species.
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Purpose: Proper delineation of ocular anatomy in 3D imaging is a big challenge, particularly when developing treatment plans for ocular diseases. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is nowadays utilized in clinical practice for the diagnosis confirmation and treatment planning of retinoblastoma in infants, where it serves as a source of information, complementary to the Fundus or Ultrasound imaging. Here we present a framework to fully automatically segment the eye anatomy in the MRI based on 3D Active Shape Models (ASM), we validate the results and present a proof of concept to automatically segment pathological eyes. Material and Methods: Manual and automatic segmentation were performed on 24 images of healthy children eyes (3.29±2.15 years). Imaging was performed using a 3T MRI scanner. The ASM comprises the lens, the vitreous humor, the sclera and the cornea. The model was fitted by first automatically detecting the position of the eye center, the lens and the optic nerve, then aligning the model and fitting it to the patient. We validated our segmentation method using a leave-one-out cross validation. The segmentation results were evaluated by measuring the overlap using the Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) and the mean distance error. Results: We obtained a DSC of 94.90±2.12% for the sclera and the cornea, 94.72±1.89% for the vitreous humor and 85.16±4.91% for the lens. The mean distance error was 0.26±0.09mm. The entire process took 14s on average per eye. Conclusion: We provide a reliable and accurate tool that enables clinicians to automatically segment the sclera, the cornea, the vitreous humor and the lens using MRI. We additionally present a proof of concept for fully automatically segmenting pathological eyes. This tool reduces the time needed for eye shape delineation and thus can help clinicians when planning eye treatment and confirming the extent of the tumor.
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BACKGROUND Low vitamin D is implicated in various chronic pain conditions with, however, inconclusive findings. Vitamin D might play an important role in mechanisms being involved in central processing of evoked pain stimuli but less so for spontaneous clinical pain. OBJECTIVE This study aims to examine the relation between low serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OH D) and mechanical pain sensitivity. DESIGN We studied 174 patients (mean age 48 years, 53% women) with chronic pain. A standardized pain provocation test was applied, and pain intensity was rated on a numerical analogue scale (0-10). The widespread pain index and symptom severity score (including fatigue, waking unrefreshed, and cognitive symptoms) following the 2010 American College of Rheumatology preliminary diagnostic criteria for fibromyalgia were also assessed. Serum 25-OH D levels were measured with a chemiluminescent immunoassay. RESULTS Vitamin deficiency (25-OH D < 50 nmol/L) was present in 71% of chronic pain patients; another 21% had insufficient vitamin D (25-OH D < 75 nmol/L). After adjustment for demographic and clinical variables, there was a mean ± standard error of the mean increase in pain intensity of 0.61 ± 0.25 for each 25 nmol/L decrease in 25-OH D (P = 0.011). Lower 25-OH D levels were also related to greater symptom severity (r = -0.21, P = 0.008) but not to the widespread pain index (P = 0.83) and fibromyalgia (P = 0.51). CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest a role of low vitamin D levels for heightened central sensitivity, particularly augmented pain processing upon mechanical stimulation in chronic pain patients. Vitamin D seems comparably less important for self-reports of spontaneous chronic pain.