Preclinical disability as a risk factor for falls in community-dwelling older adults

BACKGROUND: Falls are common and serious problems in older adults. The goal of this study was to examine whether preclinical disability predicts incident falls in a European population of community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Secondary data analysis was performed on a population-based longitudinal study of 1644 community-dwelling older adults living in London, U.K.; Hamburg, Germany; Solothurn, Switzerland. Data were collected at baseline and 1-year follow-up using a self-administered multidimensional health risk appraisal questionnaire, including validated questions on falls, mobility disability status (high function, preclinical disability, task difficulty), and demographic and health-related characteristics. Associations were evaluated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall incidence of falls was 24%, and increased by worsening mobility disability status: high function (17%), preclinical disability (32%), task difficulty (40%), test-of-trend p <.003. In multivariate analysis adjusting for other fall risk factors, preclinical disability (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-2.5), task difficulty (OR = 1.7, 95% CI, 1.1-2.6) and history of falls (OR = 4.7, 95% CI, 3.5-6.3) were the strongest significant predictors of falls. In stratified multivariate analyses, preclinical disability equally predicted falls in participants with (OR = 1.7, 95% CI, 1.0-3.0) and without history of falls (OR = 1.8, 95% CI, 1.1-3.0). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides longitudinal evidence that self-reported preclinical disability predicts incident falls at 1-year follow-up independent of other self-reported fall risk factors. Multidimensional geriatric assessment that includes preclinical disability may provide a unique early warning system as well as potential targets for intervention.

Factors associated with the emergence of K65R in patients with HIV-1 infection treated with combination antiretroviral therapy containing tenofovir

BACKGROUND: The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 reverse-transcriptase mutation K65R is a single-point mutation that has become more frequent after increased use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). We aimed to identify predictors for the emergence of K65R, using clinical data and genotypic resistance tests from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: A total of 222 patients with genotypic resistance tests performed while receiving treatment with TDF-containing regimens were stratified by detectability of K65R (K65R group, 42 patients; undetected K65R group, 180 patients). Patient characteristics at start of that treatment were analyzed. RESULTS: In an adjusted logistic regression, TDF treatment with nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors and/or didanosine was associated with the emergence of K65R, whereas the presence of any of the thymidine analogue mutations D67N, K70R, T215F, or K219E/Q was protective. The previously undescribed mutational pattern K65R/G190S/Y181C was observed in 6 of 21 patients treated with efavirenz and TDF. Salvage therapy after TDF treatment was started for 36 patients with K65R and for 118 patients from the wild-type group. Proportions of patients attaining human immunodeficiency virus type 1 loads <50 copies/mL after 24 weeks of continuous treatment were similar for the K65R group (44.1%; 95% confidence interval, 27.2%-62.1%) and the wild-type group (51.9%; 95% confidence interval, 42.0%-61.6%). CONCLUSIONS: In settings where thymidine analogue mutations are less likely to be present, such as at start of first-line therapy or after extended treatment interruptions, combinations of TDF with other K65R-inducing components or with efavirenz or nevirapine may carry an enhanced risk of the emergence of K65R. The finding of a distinct mutational pattern selected by treatment with TDF and efavirenz suggests a potential fitness interaction between K65R and nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-induced mutations.

Impact of previous virological treatment failures and adherence on the outcome of antiretroviral therapy in 2007

BACKGROUND: Combination antiretroviral treatment (cART) has been very successful, especially among selected patients in clinical trials. The aim of this study was to describe outcomes of cART on the population level in a large national cohort. METHODS: Characteristics of participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on stable cART at two semiannual visits in 2007 were analyzed with respect to era of treatment initiation, number of previous virologically failed regimens and self reported adherence. Starting ART in the mono/dual era before HIV-1 RNA assays became available was counted as one failed regimen. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for virological failure between the two consecutive visits. RESULTS: Of 4541 patients 31.2% and 68.8% had initiated therapy in the mono/dual and cART era, respectively, and been on treatment for a median of 11.7 vs. 5.7 years. At visit 1 in 2007, the mean number of previous failed regimens was 3.2 vs. 0.5 and the viral load was undetectable (<50 copies/ml) in 84.6% vs. 89.1% of the participants, respectively. Adjusted odds ratios of a detectable viral load at visit 2 for participants from the mono/dual era with a history of 2 and 3, 4, >4 previous failures compared to 1 were 0.9 (95% CI 0.4-1.7), 0.8 (0.4-1.6), 1.6 (0.8-3.2), 3.3 (1.7-6.6) respectively, and 2.3 (1.1-4.8) for >2 missed cART doses during the last month, compared to perfect adherence. From the cART era, odds ratios with a history of 1, 2 and >2 previous failures compared to none were 1.8 (95% CI 1.3-2.5), 2.8 (1.7-4.5) and 7.8 (4.5-13.5), respectively, and 2.8 (1.6-4.8) for >2 missed cART doses during the last month, compared to perfect adherence. CONCLUSIONS: A higher number of previous virologically failed regimens, and imperfect adherence to therapy were independent predictors of imminent virological failure.

A simple asthma prediction tool for preschool children with wheeze or cough

BACKGROUND Many preschool children have wheeze or cough, but only some have asthma later. Existing prediction tools are difficult to apply in clinical practice or exhibit methodological weaknesses. OBJECTIVE We sought to develop a simple and robust tool for predicting asthma at school age in preschool children with wheeze or cough. METHODS From a population-based cohort in Leicestershire, United Kingdom, we included 1- to 3-year-old subjects seeing a doctor for wheeze or cough and assessed the prevalence of asthma 5 years later. We considered only noninvasive predictors that are easy to assess in primary care: demographic and perinatal data, eczema, upper and lower respiratory tract symptoms, and family history of atopy. We developed a model using logistic regression, avoided overfitting with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty, and then simplified it to a practical tool. We performed internal validation and assessed its predictive performance using the scaled Brier score and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS Of 1226 symptomatic children with follow-up information, 345 (28%) had asthma 5 years later. The tool consists of 10 predictors yielding a total score between 0 and 15: sex, age, wheeze without colds, wheeze frequency, activity disturbance, shortness of breath, exercise-related and aeroallergen-related wheeze/cough, eczema, and parental history of asthma/bronchitis. The scaled Brier scores for the internally validated model and tool were 0.20 and 0.16, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.76 and 0.74, respectively. CONCLUSION This tool represents a simple, low-cost, and noninvasive method to predict the risk of later asthma in symptomatic preschool children, which is ready to be tested in other populations.

Maxillary canine impaction in orthodontic patients with and without agenesis: A cross-sectional radiographic study

ABSTRACT Objective: To assess potential associations between maxillary canine impaction (MCI) and agenesis status as well as between MCI and gender. Materials and Methods: The records of 182 orthodontic patients with agenesis (excluding the third molars) and 630 orthodontic patients without agenesis were examined. Diagnosis of MCI was based on pretreatment panoramic radiographs. Maxillary canines that had not erupted as a result of physical barrier or deflection in the eruption path at the dental age of at least 12 years were considered impacted. Logistic regression analysis was used to test for the associations of interest. Results: MCI was detected in 5.6% (n  =  35) of the nonagenesis group (28 female and 7 male participants) and in 18.1% (n  =  33) of the agenesis group (20 female and 13 male participants). Bilateral impaction was detected in 12 patients (34.3%) of the nonagenesis group and in 11 patients (33.3%) of the agenesis group. There was evidence that maxillary lateral incisor agenesis (odds ratio  =  5.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5-10.5, P < .001) and second premolar agenesis (odds ratio  =  2.6, 95% CI 1.0-6.6, P  =  .042) were significant MCI predictors after adjusting for gender. The odds of MCI were 69% higher in female versus male subjects after adjusting for agenesis status (95% CI 0.97-2.92, P  =  .063). Conclusions: This study indicates that there is evidence that agenesis status is a strong predictor of MCI, whereas gender is a weak predictor of MCI. Caution should be exercised in interpreting the results because of the observational nature of the present study.

Safety climate and its association with office type and team involvement in primary care

OBJECTIVE To assess differences in safety climate perceptions between occupational groups and types of office organization in primary care. METHODS Primary care physicians and nurses working in outpatient offices were surveyed about safety climate. Explorative factor analysis was performed to determine the factorial structure. Differences in mean climate scores between staff groups and types of office were tested. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine predictors for a 'favorable' safety climate. RESULTS 630 individuals returned the survey (response rate, 50%). Differences between occupational groups were observed in the means of the 'team-based error prevention'-scale (physician 4.0 vs. nurse 3.8, P < 0.001). Medical centers scored higher compared with single-handed offices and joint practices on the 'team-based error prevention'-scale (4.3 vs. 3.8 vs. 3.9, P < 0.001) but less favorable on the 'rules and risks'-scale (3.5 vs. 3.9 vs. 3.7, P < 0.001). Characteristics on the individual and office level predicted favorable 'team-based error prevention'-scores. Physicians (OR = 0.4, P = 0.01) and less experienced staff (OR 0.52, P = 0.04) were less likely to provide favorable scores. Individuals working at medical centers were more likely to provide positive scores compared with single-handed offices (OR 3.33, P = 0.001). The largest positive effect was associated with at least monthly team meetings (OR 6.2, P < 0.001) and participation in quality circles (OR 4.49, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Results indicate that frequent quality circle participation and team meetings involving all team members are effective ways to strengthen safety climate in terms of team-based strategies and activities in error prevention.

Multivessel versus culprit vessel percutaneous coronary intervention in ST-elevation myocardial infarction: is more worse?

Aims: We examined what type of STEMI patients are more likely to undergo multivessel PCI (MPCI) in a "real-world" setting and whether MPCI leads to worse or better outcomes compared with single-vessel PCI (SPCI) after stratifying patients by risk. Methods and results: Among STEMI patients enrolled in the Swiss AMIS Plus registry between 2005 and 2012 (n=12,000), 4,941 were identified with multivessel disease. We then stratified patients based on MPCI use and their risk. High-risk patients were identified a priori as those with: 1) left main (LM) involvement (lesions, n=263); 2) out-of-hospital cardiac arrest; or 3) Killip class III/IV. Logistic regression models examined for predictors of MPCI use and the association between MPCI and in-hospital mortality. Three thousand eight hundred and thirty-three (77.6%) patients underwent SPCI and 1,108 (22.4%) underwent MPCI. Rates of MPCI were greater among high-risk patients for each of the three categories: 8.6% vs. 5.9% for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (p<0.01); 12.3% vs. 6.2% for Killip III/IV (p<0.001); and 14.5% vs. 2.7% for LM involvement (p<0.001). Overall, in-hospital mortality after MPCI was higher when compared with SPCI (7.3% vs. 4.4%; p<0.001). However, this result was not present when patients were stratified by risk: in-hospital mortality for MPCI vs. SPCI was 2.0% vs. 2.0% (p=1.00) in low-risk patients and 22.2% vs. 21.7% (p=1.00) in high-risk patients. Conclusions: High-risk patients are more likely to undergo MPCI. Furthermore, MPCI does not appear to be associated with higher mortality after stratifying patients based on their risk.

Obesity and overweight associated with lower rates of colorectal cancer screening in Switzerland

Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with reduced CRC mortality, but low screening rates have been reported in several settings. The aim of the study was to assess predictors of low CRC screening in Switzerland. A retrospective cohort of a random sample of 940 patients aged 50-80 years followed for 2 years from four Swiss University primary care settings was used. Patients with illegal residency status and a history of CRC or colorectal polyps were excluded. We abstracted sociodemographic data of patients and physicians, patient health status, and indicators derived from RAND's Quality Assessment Tools from medical charts. We defined CRC screening as colonoscopy in the last 10 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy in the last 5 years, or fecal occult blood testing in the last 2 years. We used bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Of 940 patients (mean age 63.9 years, 42.7% women), 316 (33.6%) had undergone CRC screening. In multivariate analysis, birthplace in a country outside of Western Europe and North America [odds ratio (OR) 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45-0.97], male sex of the physician in charge (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.50-0.91), BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m2 (OR 0.66, CI 0.46-0.96) and at least 30.0 kg/m2 (OR 0.61, CI 0.40-0.90) were associated with lower CRC screening rates. Obesity, overweight, birthplace outside of Western Europe and North America, and male sex of the physician in charge were associated with lower CRC screening rates in Swiss University primary care settings. Physician perception of obesity and its impact on their recommendation for CRC screening might be a target for further research.

A longitudinal study on delirium in nursing homes

OBJECTIVE To investigate the evolution of delirium of nursing home (NH) residents and their possible predictors. DESIGN Post-hoc analysis of a prospective cohort assessment. SETTING Ninety NHs in Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS Included 14,771 NH residents. MEASUREMENTS The Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set and the Nursing Home Confusion Assessment Method were used to determine follow-up of subsyndromal or full delirium in NH residents using discrete Markov chain modeling to describe long-term trajectories and multiple logistic regression analyses to determine predictors of the trajectories. RESULTS We identified four major types of delirium time courses in NH. Increasing severity of cognitive impairment and of depressive symptoms at the initial assessment predicted the different delirium time courses. CONCLUSION More pronounced cognitive impairment and depressive symptoms at the initial assessment are associated with different subsequent evolutions of delirium. The presence and evolution of delirium in the first year after NH admission predicted the subsequent course of delirium until death.

Adherence as a Predictor of the Development of Class-Specific Resistance Mutations: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Background Non-adherence is one of the strongest predictors of therapeutic failure in HIV-positive patients. Virologic failure with subsequent emergence of resistance reduces future treatment options and long-term clinical success. Methods Prospective observational cohort study including patients starting new class of antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2003 and 2010. Participants were naïve to ART class and completed ≥1 adherence questionnaire prior to resistance testing. Outcomes were development of any IAS-USA, class-specific, or M184V mutations. Associations between adherence and resistance were estimated using logistic regression models stratified by ART class. Results Of 314 included individuals, 162 started NNRTI and 152 a PI/r regimen. Adherence was similar between groups with 85% reporting adherence ≥95%. Number of new mutations increased with increasing non-adherence. In NNRTI group, multivariable models indicated a significant linear association in odds of developing IAS-USA (odds ratio (OR) 1.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-2.67) or class-specific (OR 1.65, 95% CI: 1.00-2.70) mutations. Levels of drug resistance were considerably lower in PI/r group and adherence was only significantly associated with M184V mutations (OR 8.38, 95% CI: 1.26-55.70). Adherence was significantly associated with HIV RNA in PI/r but not NNRTI regimens. Conclusion Therapies containing PI/r appear more forgiving to incomplete adherence compared with NNRTI regimens, which allow higher levels of resistance, even with adherence above 95%. However, in failing PI/r regimens good adherence may prevent accumulation of further resistance mutations and therefore help to preserve future drug options. In contrast, adherence levels have little impact on NNRTI treatments once the first mutations have emerged.

The Individualized Genetic Barrier Predicts Treatment Response in a Large Cohort of HIV-1 Infected Patients

The success of combination antiretroviral therapy is limited by the evolutionary escape dynamics of HIV-1. We used Isotonic Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (I-CBNs), a class of probabilistic graphical models, to describe this process. We employed partial order constraints among viral resistance mutations, which give rise to a limited set of mutational pathways, and we modeled phenotypic drug resistance as monotonically increasing along any escape pathway. Using this model, the individualized genetic barrier (IGB) to each drug is derived as the probability of the virus not acquiring additional mutations that confer resistance. Drug-specific IGBs were combined to obtain the IGB to an entire regimen, which quantifies the virus' genetic potential for developing drug resistance under combination therapy. The IGB was tested as a predictor of therapeutic outcome using between 2,185 and 2,631 treatment change episodes of subtype B infected patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study Database, a large observational cohort. Using logistic regression, significant univariate predictors included most of the 18 drugs and single-drug IGBs, the IGB to the entire regimen, the expert rules-based genotypic susceptibility score (GSS), several individual mutations, and the peak viral load before treatment change. In the multivariate analysis, the only genotype-derived variables that remained significantly associated with virological success were GSS and, with 10-fold stronger association, IGB to regimen. When predicting suppression of viral load below 400 cps/ml, IGB outperformed GSS and also improved GSS-containing predictors significantly, but the difference was not significant for suppression below 50 cps/ml. Thus, the IGB to regimen is a novel data-derived predictor of treatment outcome that has potential to improve the interpretation of genotypic drug resistance tests.

Cement volume is the most important modifiable predictor for pain relief in BKP: results from SWISSspine, a nationwide registry

Purpose The effectiveness of vertebral augmentation techniques is a currently highly debated issue. The biomechanical literature suggests that cement filling volumes may play an important role in the ‘‘dosage’’ of vertebral augmentation and its pain alleviating effect. Good clinical data about filling volumes are scarce and most patient series are small. Therefore, we investigated the predictors of pain alleviation after balloon kyphoplasty in the nationwide SWISSspine registry where cement volumes are also recorded. Methods All single-level vertebral fractures with no additional fracture stabilization and availability of at least one follow-up within 6 months after surgery were included. The following potential predictors were assessed in a multivariate logistic regression model with the group’s average pain alleviation of 41 points on VAS as the desired outcome: patient age, patient sex, diagnosis, preoperative pain, level of fracture, type of fracture, age of fracture, segmental kyphotic deformity, cement volume, vertebral body filling volume, and cement extrusions. Results There were 194 female and 82 males with an average age of 70.4 and 65.3 years, respectively. Female patients were about twice as likely for achieving the average pain relief compared to males (p = 0.04). The preoperative pain level was the strongest predictor in that the likelihood for achieving an at least 41-point pain relief increased by about 8 % with each additional point of preoperative pain (p\0.001). A thoraco-lumbar fracture had a three times higher odds for the average pain relief compared with a lumbar fracture (p = 0.03). An A.3.1 fracture only had about a third of the probability for average pain relief compared with an A.1.1 fracture (p = 0.004). Cement volumes up to 4.5 ml only had an approximately 40 % chance for a minimum 41-point pain alleviation as compared with cement volumes of at least 4.5 ml (p = 0.007). In addition, the relationship between cement volume and pain alleviation followed a dose-dependent pattern. Conclusions Cement volume was revealed as a significant predictor for pain relief in BKP. Cement volume was the third most important influential covariate and the most important modifiable and operator dependent one. The clear dose-outcome relationship between cement filling volumes and pain relief additionally supports these findings. Cement volumes of [4.5 ml seem to be recommendable for achieving relevant pain alleviation. Patient sex and fracture type and location were further significant predictors and all these covariates should be recorded and reported in future studies about the pain alleviating effectiveness of vertebral augmentation procedures.

Who is likely to develop persistent low back pain? A longitudinal analysis of prognostic occupational factors

OBJECTIVE: Occupational low back pain (LBP) is considered to be the most expensive form of work disability, with the socioeconomic costs of persistent LBP exceeding the costs of acute and subacute LBP by far. This makes the early identification of patients at risk of developing persistent LBP essential, especially in working populations. The aim of the study was to evaluate both risk factors (for the development of persistent LBP) and protective factors (preventing the development of persistent LBP) in the same cohort. PARTICIPANTS: An inception cohort of 315 patients with acute to subacute or with recurrent LBP was recruited from 14 health practitioners (twelve general practitioners and two physiotherapists) across New Zealand. METHODS: Patients with persistent LBP at six-month follow-up were compared to patients with non-persistent LBP looking at occupational, psychological, biomedical and demographic/lifestyle predictors at baseline using multiple logistic regression analyses. All significant variables from the different domains were combined into a one predictor model. RESULTS: A final two-predictor model with an overall predictive value of 78% included social support at work (OR 0.67; 95%CI 0.45 to 0.99) and somatization (OR 1.08; 95%CI 1.01 to 1.15). CONCLUSIONS: Social support at work should be considered as a resource preventing the development of persistent LBP whereas somatization should be considered as a risk factor for the development of persistent LBP. Further studies are needed to determine if addressing these factors in workplace interventions for patients suffering from acute, subacute or recurrent LBP prevents subsequent development of persistent LBP.

Personality dimensions in persons symptomatically at risk of psychosis: pronounced but lacking a characteristic profile

AIM Personality dimensions are frequently abnormal in psychosis. We examined if these abnormalities form a personality profile that is characteristic for patients symptomatically at risk of psychosis. METHODS Four higher order personality dimensions were assessed in 104 at-risk patients, 67 clinical and 97 healthy controls with the 'Dimensional Assessment of Personality Pathology', and analysed by two-step cluster procedure to detect personality profiles. Logistic regression was used to test for predictors of profile assignment. RESULTS Low and high scorers were distinguished by two profiles. Patients were more likely high scorers. The presence of clinically relevant depression, though equally frequent in clinical groups, best predicted high scorers among patients. CONCLUSIONS Though at-risk patients were significantly more often high scorers, this seemed to be a general reflection of the level of psychopathology rather than a group characteristic. Thus, personality dimensions might be of little value for facilitating early detection but might be important to consider in early intervention approaches.

Predicting smoking cessation and its relapse in HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to assess whether prospective follow-up data within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study can be used to predict patients who stop smoking; or among smokers who stop, those who start smoking again. METHODS: We built prediction models first using clinical reasoning ('clinical models') and then by selecting from numerous candidate predictors using advanced statistical methods ('statistical models'). Our clinical models were based on literature that suggests that motivation drives smoking cessation, while dependence drives relapse in those attempting to stop. Our statistical models were based on automatic variable selection using additive logistic regression with component-wise gradient boosting. RESULTS: Of 4833 smokers, 26% stopped smoking, at least temporarily; because among those who stopped, 48% started smoking again. The predictive performance of our clinical and statistical models was modest. A basic clinical model for cessation, with patients classified into three motivational groups, was nearly as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the most important predictors (the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits, alcohol or drug dependence, psychiatric comorbidities, recent hospitalization and age). A basic clinical model for relapse, based on the maximum number of cigarettes per day prior to stopping, was not as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits. CONCLUSIONS: Predicting smoking cessation and relapse is difficult, so that simple models are nearly as discriminatory as complex ones. Patients with a history of attempting to stop and those known to have stopped recently are the best candidates for an intervention.