M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.

Integrated care in patients with schizophrenia: results of trials published between 2011 and 2013 focusing on effectiveness and efficiency

Purpose of review: Overview on integrated care trials focusing on effectiveness and efficiency published from 2011 to 2013. Recent findings: Eight randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and 21 non-RCT studies were published from 2011 to 2013. Studies differed in several methodological aspects such as study population, psychotherapeutic approaches used, outcome parameters, follow-up times, fidelities, and implementation of the integrated care model and the nation-specific healthcare context with different control conditions. This makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions. Most studies demonstrated relevant improvements regarding symptoms (P = 0.001) and functioning (P = 0.01), quality of life (P = 0.01), adherence (P <0.05) and patient's satisfaction (P = 0.01), and reduction of caregiver's stress (P < 0.05). Mean total costs were favoring or at least equalizing costs but with positive effects found on subjective health favoring integrated care models. Summary: There is an increasing interest in the effectiveness and efficiency of integrated care models in patients with mental disorders, specifically in those with severe and persistent mental illness. To increase generalizability, future trials should exactly describe rationales and content of integrated care model and control conditions.

Simulator training on pulsatile vascular models significantly improves surgical skills and the quality of carotid patch plasty

Vascular surgeons perform numerous highly sophisticated and delicate procedures. Due to restrictions in training time and the advent of endovascular techniques, new concepts including alternative environments for training and assessment of surgical skills are required. Over the past decade, training on simulators and synthetic models has become more sophisticated and lifelike. This study was designed to evaluate the impact of a 3-day intense training course in open vascular surgery on both specific and global vascular surgical skills.

Models with Plants, Microorganisms and Viruses for Basic Research in Homeopathy

Most criticism about homeopathy concerns the lack of a scientific basis and theoretical models. In order to be accepted as a valid part of medical practice, a wellstructured research strategy for homeopathy is needed. This is often hampered by methodological problems as well as by gross underinvestment in the required academic resources. Fundamental research could make important contributions to our understanding of the homeopathic and high dilutions mechanisms of action. Since the pioneering works of Kolisko on wheat germination (Kolisko, 1923) and Junker on growth of microorganisms (paramecium, yeast, fungi) (Junker, 1928), a number of experiments have been performed either with healthy organisms (various physiological aspects of growth) or with artificially diseased organisms, which may react more markedly to homeopathic treatments than healthy ones. In the latter case, the preliminary stress may be either abiotic, e.g. heavy metals, or biotic, e.g. fungal and viral pathogens or nematode infection. Research has also been carried out into the applicability of homeopathic principles to crop growth and disease control (agrohomeopathy): because of the extreme dilutions used, the environmental impact is low and such treatments are well suited to the holistic approach of sustainable agriculture (Betti et al., 2006). Unfortunately, as Scofield reported in an extensive critical review (Scofield, 1984), there is little firm evidence to support the reliability of the reported results, due to poor experimental methodology and inadequate statistical analysis. Moreover, since there is no agricultural homeopathic pharmacopoeia, much work is required to find suitable remedies, potencies and dose levels.

State of the art of integrated therapy approaches in the treatment of schizophrenia: empirical evidence and clinical relevance

Objective: Integrated behavior therapy approaches are defined by the combination of behavioral and or cognitive interventions targeting neurocognition combined with other goal-oriented treatment targets such as social cognition, social skills, or educational issues. The Integrated Psychological Therapy Program (IPT) represents one of the very first behavior therapy approaches combining interventions of neurocognition, social cognition, and social competence. This comprehensive group-based bottom-up and top-down approach consists of five subprograms, each with incremental steps. IPT has been successfully implemented in several countries in Europe, America, Australia and in Asia. IPT worked as a model for some other approaches designed in the USA. IPT was undergone two further developments: based on the social competence part of IPT, the three specific therapy programs focusing residential, occupational or recreational topics were developed. Recently, the cognitive part of INT was rigorously expanded into the Integrated Neurocognitive Therapy (INT) designed exclusively for outpatient treatment: INT includes interventions targeting all neurocognitive and social cognitive domains defined by the NIMH-MATRICS initiative. These group and partially PC-based exercises are structured into four therapy modules, each starting with exercises on neurocognitive domains followed by social cognitive targets. Efficacy: The evidence of integrated therapy approaches and its advantage compared to of one-track interventions was becoming a discussion tool in therapy research as well as in mental health systems. Results of meta-analyses support superiority of integrated approaches compared to one-track interventions in more distal outcome areas such as social functioning. These results are in line with the large body of 37 independent IPT studies in 12 countries. Moreover, IPT research indicates the maintenance of therapy effects after the end of therapy and some evidence generalization effects. Additionally, the international randomized multi-center study on INT with 169 outpatients strongly supports the successful therapy of integrated therapy in proximal and distal outcome such as significant effects in cognition, functioning and negative symptoms. Clinical implication: therapy research as well as expert’s clinical experience recommends integrated therapy approaches such as IPT to be successful agents within multimodal psychiatric treatment concepts. Finally, integrated group therapy based on cognitive remediation seems to motivate and stimulate schizophrenia inpatients and outpatients to more successful and independent life also demanded by the recovery movement.

Open issues in transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Part 1: patient selection and treatment strategy for transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

An exponential increase in the use of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) in patients with severe aortic stenosis has been witnessed over the recent years. The current article reviews different areas of uncertainty related to patient selection. The use and limitations of risk scores are addressed, followed by an extensive discussion on the value of three-dimensional imaging for prosthesis sizing and the assessment of complex valve anatomy such as degenerated bicuspid valves. The uncertainty about valvular stenosis severity in patients with a mismatch between the transvalvular gradient and the aortic valve area, and how integrated use of echocardiography and computed tomographic imaging may help, is also addressed. Finally, patients referred for TAVI may have concomitant mitral regurgitation and/or coronary artery disease and the management of these patients is discussed.

Polydnavirus DNA of the braconid wasp Chelonus inanitus is integrated in the wasp's genome and excised only in later pupal and adult stages of the female

Many endoparasitic wasps inject, along with the egg, polydnavirus into their insect hosts, the virus being a prerequisite for successful parasitoid development. The genome of polydnaviruses consists of multiple circular dsDNA molecules of variable size. We show for a 12 kbp segment of the braconid Chelonus inanitus (CiV12) that it is integrated into the wasp genome. This is the first direct demonstration of integration for a bracovirus. PCR data indicated that the integrated form of CiV12 was present in all male and female stages investigated while the excised circular virus DNA only appeared in females after a specific stage in pupal-adult development. The data also indicated that after excision of virus DNA the genomic DNA was rejoined. This has not yet been reported for any polydnavirus. Sequence analyses in the junction regions revealed the presence of an imperfect consensus sequence of 15 nucleotides in CiV12, in each terminus of the integrated virus DNA and in the rejoined genomic DNA. Within these repeats two sequence types (ATA, TAC) were observed in the various virus clones and in the clones encompassing the rejoined genomic DNA; they corresponded to the sequence type in the right and left junction, respectively. To explain this, we propose a model of virus DNA replication in which the genomic DNA is folded to juxtapose the direct repeat of the left with that of the right junction; recombination at specific sites would then yield the two types of virus and rejoined genomic DNA.

Replications of fundamental research models in ultra high dilutions 1994 and 2015 - update on a bibliometric study

INTRODUCTION This paper focuses exclusively on experimental models with ultra high dilutions (i.e. beyond 10(-23)) that have been submitted to replication scrutiny. It updates previous surveys, considers suggestions made by the research community and compares the state of replication in 1994 with that in 2015. METHODS Following literature research, biochemical, immunological, botanical, cell biological and zoological studies on ultra high dilutions (potencies) were included. Reports were grouped into initial studies, laboratory-internal, multicentre and external replications. Repetition could yield either comparable, or zero, or opposite results. The null-hypothesis was that test and control groups would not be distinguishable (zero effect). RESULTS A total of 126 studies were found. From these, 28 were initial studies. When all 98 replicative studies were considered, 70.4% (i.e. 69) reported a result comparable to that of the initial study, 20.4% (20) zero effect and 9.2% (9) an opposite result. Both for the studies until 1994 and the studies 1995-2015 the null-hypothesis (dominance of zero results) should be rejected. Furthermore, the odds of finding a comparable result are generally higher than of finding an opposite result. Although this is true for all three types of replication studies, the fraction of comparable studies diminishes from laboratory-internal (total 82.9%) to multicentre (total 75%) to external (total 48.3%), while the fraction of opposite results was 4.9%, 10.7% and 13.8%. Furthermore, it became obvious that the probability of an external replication producing comparable results is bigger for models that had already been further scrutinized by the initial researchers. CONCLUSIONS We found 28 experimental models which underwent replication. In total, 24 models were replicated with comparable results, 12 models with zero effect, and 6 models with opposite results. Five models were externally reproduced with comparable results. We encourage further replications of studies in order to learn more about the model systems used.

Global models of planet formation and evolution

Despite the strong increase in observational data on extrasolar planets, the processes that led to the formation of these planets are still not well understood. However, thanks to the high number of extrasolar planets that have been discovered, it is now possible to look at the planets as a population that puts statistical constraints on theoretical formation models. A method that uses these constraints is planetary population synthesis where synthetic planetary populations are generated and compared to the actual population. The key element of the population synthesis method is a global model of planet formation and evolution. These models directly predict observable planetary properties based on properties of the natal protoplanetary disc, linking two important classes of astrophysical objects. To do so, global models build on the simplified results of many specialized models that address one specific physical mechanism. We thoroughly review the physics of the sub-models included in global formation models. The sub-models can be classified as models describing the protoplanetary disc (of gas and solids), those that describe one (proto)planet (its solid core, gaseous envelope and atmosphere), and finally those that describe the interactions (orbital migration and N-body interaction). We compare the approaches taken in different global models, discuss the links between specialized and global models, and identify physical processes that require improved descriptions in future work. We then shortly address important results of planetary population synthesis like the planetary mass function or the mass-radius relationship. With these statistical results, the global effects of physical mechanisms occurring during planet formation and evolution become apparent, and specialized models describing them can be put to the observational test. Owing to their nature as meta models, global models depend on the results of specialized models, and therefore on the development of the field of planet formation theory as a whole. Because there are important uncertainties in this theory, it is likely that the global models will in future undergo significant modifications. Despite these limitations, global models can already now yield many testable predictions. With future global models addressing the geophysical characteristics of the synthetic planets, it should eventually become possible to make predictions about the habitability of planets based on their formation and evolution.