Magnitude and frequency: challenges for the assessment of vulnerability to geomorphic hazards

In natural hazard research, risk is defined as a function of (1) the probability of occurrence of a hazardous process, and (2) the assessment of the related extent of damage, defined by the value of elements at risk exposed and their physical vulnerability. Until now, various works have been undertaken to determine vulnerability values for objects exposed to geomorphic hazards such as mountain torrents. Yet, many studies only provide rough estimates for vulnerability values based on proxies for process intensities. However, the deduced vulnerability functions proposed in the literature show a wide range, in particular with respect to medium and high process magnitudes. In our study, we compare vulnerability functions for torrent processes derived from studies in test sites located in the Austrian Alps and in Taiwan. Based on this comparison we expose needs for future research in order to enhance mountain hazard risk management with a particular focus on the question of vulnerability on a catchment scale.

Sizing up your enemy: individual predation vulnerability predicts migratory probability

Partial migration, in which a fraction of a population migrate and the rest remain resident, occurs in an extensive range of species and can have powerful ecological consequences. The question of what drives differences in individual migratory tendency is a contentious one. It has been shown that the timing of partial migration is based upon a trade-off between seasonal fluctuations in predation risk and growth potential. Phenotypic variation in either individual predation risk or growth potential should thus mediate the strength of the trade-off and ultimately predict patterns of partial migration at the individual level (i.e. which individuals migrate and which remain resident). We provide cross-population empirical support for the importance of one component of this model—individual predation risk—in predicting partial migration in wild populations of bream Abramis brama, a freshwater fish. Smaller, high-risk individuals migrate with a higher probability than larger, low-risk individuals, and we suggest that predation risk maintains size-dependent partial migration in this system.

Contrasting vulnerability and resilience to drought-induced decline of densely planted vs. natural rear-edge Pinus nigra forests

The southernmost European natural and planted pine forests are among the most vulnerable areas to warming-induced drought decline. Both drought stress and management factors (e.g., stand origin or reduced thinning) may induce decline by reducing the water available to trees but their relative importances have not been properly assessed. The role of stand origin - densely planted vs. naturally regenerated stands - as a decline driver can be assessed by comparing the growth and vigor responses to drought of similar natural vs. planted stands. Here, we compare these responses in natural and planted Black pine (Pinus nigra) stands located in southern Spain. We analyze how environmental factors - climatic (temperature and precipitation anomalies) and site conditions - and biotic factors - stand structure (age, tree size, density) and defoliation by the pine processionary moth - drive radial growth and crown condition at stand and tree levels. We also assess the climatic trends in the study area over the last 60 years. We use dendrochronology, linear mixed-effects models of basal area increment and structural equation models to determine how natural and planted stands respond to drought and current competition intensity. We observed that a temperature rise and a decrease in precipitation during the growing period led to increasing drought stress during the late 20th century. Trees from planted stands experienced stronger growth reductions and displayed more severe crown defoliation after severe droughts than those from natural stands. High stand density negatively drove growth and enhanced crown dieback, particularly in planted stands. Also pine processionary moth defoliation was more severe in the growth of natural than in planted stands but affected tree crown condition similarly in both stand types. In response to drought, sharp growth reduction and widespread defoliation of planted Mediterranean pine stands indicate that they are more vulnerable and less resilient to drought stress than natural stands. To mitigate forest decline of planted stands in xeric areas such as the Mediterranean Basin, less dense and more diverse stands should be created through selective thinning or by selecting species or provenances that are more drought tolerant. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability Following a Critical Life Event: Temporary Crisis or Chronic Distress? A Psychological Controversy, Methodological Considerations, and Empirical Evidence

This contribution deals with psychological vulnerability resulting from marital breakup after a long-term relationship. Despite the existing vast body of consolidated knowledge on divorce and psychological adaptation, there are still several controversies concerning the vulnerabilizing impact of marital breakup. One major issue refers to the question of whether vulnerability after marital breakup is a temporary crisis or rather a chronic strain. In this chapter we want to present two possible methodological options to tackle this question: First, comparing a sample of almost 1000 middle-aged persons, who were married on average 19 years, and who experienced a marital split within the last 5 years (4 time groups), with a group of age-matched married controls with regard to various indicators of psychological vulnerability (such as depression and hopelessness). Second, comparing within the divorced group the most vulnerable individuals (in terms of depression, hopelessness, life satisfaction) with those who were the least affected, regarding intra-personal resources (personality, resilience), divorce circumstances, post-divorce situation, and socio-economic resources. The study results underline the vulnerabilizing impact of marital breakup, but at the same time they reveal individual differences in psychological adaptation especially due to personality, new partnership, economic resources, and last but not least due to time. Furthermore our data strongly suggest that there is not a generalized psychological vulnerability after marital breakup, but that the emotional dimensions such as depression or feelings of not overcoming the loss are more affected than the more cognitive ones such as life satisfaction.

Vulnerability and Growth. Developmental dynamics and differential effects of the loss of an intimate partner in the second half of life. IP 12: Study outline and first results

This working report gives an overview of the Individual Project 12 “Vulnerability and growth. Developmental dynamics and differential effects of the loss of an intimate partner in the second half of life” of the Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research LIVES led by Pasqualina Perrig-Chiello, University of Bern. This longitudinal and interdisciplinary project aims at examining vulnerability and personal growth after a critical life event, namely the break-up of a long-term intimate relationship in the second half of life, be it due to divorce or due to bereavement. In this report we present details about the rationale, the main research questions, the hypotheses and the methods of the study. Special attention is given to the methodological approach. The authors give a first sample description and report on the validity of the data by comparing the sample with Swiss Labour Force Survey and Swiss Health Survey data.

The role of learning-related dopamine signals in addiction vulnerability

Dopaminergic signals play a mathematically precise role in reward-related learning, and variations in dopaminergic signaling have been implicated in vulnerability to addiction. Here, we provide a detailed overview of the relationship between theoretical, mathematical, and experimental accounts of phasic dopamine signaling, with implications for the role of learning-related dopamine signaling in addiction and related disorders. We describe the theoretical and behavioral characteristics of model-free learning based on errors in the prediction of reward, including step-by-step explanations of the underlying equations. We then use recent insights from an animal model that highlights individual variation in learning during a Pavlovian conditioning paradigm to describe overlapping aspects of incentive salience attribution and model-free learning. We argue that this provides a computationally coherent account of some features of addiction.

God, the WTO – and hunger

Considering that endemic hunger is a consequence of poverty, and that food is arguably the most basic of all human needs, this book chapter shows one of the more prominent examples of rules and policy fragmentation but also one of the most blatant global governance problems. The three monotheistic religions Judaism, Christians and Islam are surprisingly unanimous about God’s prescriptions on hunger or, put theologically, on what can be said, or should be said, about the interpretations and traditions which, taken together, form the respective and differentiated traditions, identities and views of these beliefs on how to deal with poverty and hunger. A clear social ethos, in the form of global needs satisfaction, runs through both Jewish and Christian texts, and the Qur’an (Zakat). It confirms the value inversion between the world of the mighty and that of the hungry. The message is clear: because salvation is available only through the grace of God, those who have must give to those who have not. This is not charity: it is an inversion of values which can not be addressed by spending 0.7% of your GDP on ODA, and the implication of this sense of redistributive justice is that social offenders will be subject to the Last Judgement. Interestingly, these religious scriptures found their way directly into the human rights treaties adopted by the United Nations and ratified by the parliaments, as a legal base for the duty to protect, to respect and to remedy. On the other side the contradiction with international trade law is all the more flagrant, and it has a direct bearing on poverty: systematic surplus food dumping is still allowed under WTO rules, despite the declared objective ‘to establish a fair and market-oriented agricultural trading system’. A way forward would be a kind of ‘bottom up’ approach by focusing on extreme cases of food insecurity caused by food dumping, or by export restrictions where a direct effect of food insecurity in other countries can be established. Also, international financing institutions need to review their policies and lending priorities. The same goes for the bilateral investment treaties and a possible ‘public interest’ clause, at least in respect of agricultural land acquisitions in vulnerable countries. The bottom line is this: WTO rules cannot entail a right to violate other, equally binding treaty obligations when its membership as a whole claims to contribute to the Millennium Development Goals and pledges to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger.

Theoretical framework for the assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change [in Europe]

Reducing risk that emerges from hazards of natural origin and societal vulnerability is a key challenge for the development of more resilient communities and the overall goal of sustainable development. The following chapter outlines a framework for multidimensional, holistic vulnerability assessment that is understood as part of risk evaluation and risk management in the context of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). As a heuristic, the framework is a thinking tool to guide systematic assessments of vulnerability and to provide a basis for comparative indicators and criteria development to assess key factors and various dimensions of vulnerability, particularly in regions in Europe, however, it can also be applied in other world regions. The framework has been developed within the context of the research project MOVE (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe; ) sponsored by the European Commission within the framework of the FP 7 program.

Vulnerability to Heatwaves, Floods and Mass Movements in Mountainous Terrain: Test Cases in South Tyrol

South Tyrol is a region that has been often affected by various mountain hazards such as floods, flash floods, debris flows, rock falls, and snow avalanches. Furthermore, areas located in lower altitudes are often influenced by high temperatures and heat waves. Climate change is expected to influence the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of these natural phenomena. For this reason, local authorities and other stakeholders are in need of tools that can enable them to reduce the risk posed by these processes. In the present study, a variety of methods are applied at local level in different places in South Tyrol that aim at: (1) the assessment of future losses caused by the occurrence of debris flows by using a vulnerability curve, (2) the assessment of social vulnerability based on the risk awareness of the exposed people to floods, and (3) the assessment of spatial exposure and social vulnerability of the exposed population to heat waves. The results show that, in South Tyrol, the risk to a number of hazards can be reduced by: (1) improving documentation for past events in order to improve existing vulnerability curves and the assessment of future losses, (2) raising citizens' awareness and responsibility to improve coping capacity to floods, and (3) extending heat wave early warning systems to more low-lying areas of South Tyrol.

A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

Loss estimation for landslides in mountain areas – An integrated toolbox for vulnerability assessment and damage documentation

Global environmental change includes changes in a wide range of global scale phenomena, which are expected to affect a number of physical processes, as well as the vulnerability of the communities that will experience their impact. Decision-makers are in need of tools that will enable them to assess the loss of such processes under different future scenarios and to design risk reduction strategies. In this paper, a tool is presented that can be used by a range of end-users (e.g. local authorities, decision makers, etc.) for the assessment of the monetary loss from future landslide events, with a particular focus on torrential processes. The toolbox includes three functions: a) enhancement of the post-event damage data collection process, b) assessment of monetary loss of future events and c) continuous updating and improvement of an existing vulnerability curve by adding data of recent events. All functions of the tool are demonstrated through examples of its application.