Isotopic constraints on marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during the last deglaciation

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance that has anthropogenic as well as natural marine and terrestrial sources. The tropospheric N2O concentrations have varied substantially in the past in concert with changing climate on glacial–interglacial and millennial timescales. It is not well understood, however, how N2O emissions from marine and terrestrial sources change in response to varying environmental conditions. The distinct isotopic compositions of marine and terrestrial N2O sources can help disentangle the relative changes in marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during past climate variations. Here we present N2O concentration and isotopic data for the last deglaciation, from 16,000 to 10,000 years before present, retrieved from air bubbles trapped in polar ice at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. With the help of our data and a box model of the N2O cycle, we find a 30 per cent increase in total N2O emissions from the late glacial to the interglacial, with terrestrial and marine emissions contributing equally to the overall increase and generally evolving in parallel over the last deglaciation, even though there is no a priori connection between the drivers of the two sources. However, we find that terrestrial emissions dominated on centennial timescales, consistent with a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model that suggests that during the last deglaciation emission changes were strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation patterns over land surfaces. The results improve our understanding of the drivers of natural N2O emissions and are consistent with the idea that natural N2O emissions will probably increase in response to anthropogenic warming.

Climate change impacts on tree species, forest properties, and ecosystem services

– Swiss forests experience strong impacts under the CH2011 scenarios, partly even for the low greenhouse gas scenario RCP3PD. Negative impacts prevail in low-elevation forests, whereas mostly positive impacts are expected in high-elevation forests. – Major changes in the distribution of the two most important tree species, Norway spruce and European beech, are expected. Growth conditions for spruce improve in a broad range of scenarios at presently cool high-elevation sites with plentiful precipitation, but in the case of strong warming (A1B and A2) spruce and beech are at risk in large parts of the Swiss Plateau. – High elevation forests that are temperature-limited will show little change in species composition but an increase in biomass. In contrast, forests at low elevations in warm-dry inner-Alpine valleys are sensitive to even moderate warming and may no longer sustain current biomass and species. – Timber production potential, carbon storage, and protection from avalanches and rockfall react differently to climate change, with an overall tendency to deteriorate at low elevations, and improve at high elevations. – Climate change will affect forests also indirectly, e.g., by increasing the risk of infestation by spruce bark beetles, which will profit from an extended flight period and will produce more generations per year.

Biogeochemical indicators of peatland degradation – a case study of a temperate bog in Northern Germany

Organic soils in peatlands store a great proportion of the global soil carbon pool and can lose carbon via the atmosphere due to degradation. In Germany, most of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from organic soils are attributed to sites managed as grassland. Here, we investigated a land use gradient from near-natural wetland (NW) to an extensively managed (GE) to an intensively managed grassland site (GI), all formed in the same bog complex in northern Germany. Vertical depth profiles of δ13C, δ15N, ash content, C / N ratio and bulk density as well as radiocarbon ages were studied to identify peat degradation and to calculate carbon loss. At all sites, including the near-natural site, δ13C depth profiles indicate aerobic decomposition in the upper horizons. Depth profiles of δ15N differed significantly between sites with increasing δ15N values in the top soil layers paralleling an increase in land use intensity owing to differences in peat decomposition and fertilizer application. At both grassland sites, the ash content peaked within the first centimetres. In the near-natural site, ash contents were highest in 10–60 cm depth. The ash profiles, not only at the managed grassland sites, but also at the near-natural site indicate that all sites were influenced by anthropogenic activities either currently or in the past, most likely due to drainage. Based on the enrichment of ash content and changes in bulk density, we calculated the total carbon loss from the sites since the peatland was influenced by anthropogenic activities. Carbon loss at the sites increased in the following order: NW < GE < GI. Radiocarbon ages of peat in the topsoil of GE and GI were hundreds of years, indicating the loss of younger peat material. In contrast, peat in the first centimetres of the NW was only a few decades old, indicating recent peat growth. It is likely that the NW site accumulates carbon today but was perturbed by anthropogenic activities in the past. Together, all biogeochemical parameters indicate a degradation of peat due to (i) conversion to grassland with historical drainage and (ii) land use intensification.

Time-lapse pressure tomography for characterizing CO2 plume evolution in a deep saline aquifer

A time-lapse pressure tomography inversion approach is applied to characterize the CO2 plume development in a virtual deep saline aquifer. Deep CO2 injection leads to flow properties of the mixed-phase, which vary depending on the CO2 saturation. Analogous to the crossed ray paths of a seismic tomographic experiment, pressure tomography creates streamline patterns by injecting brine prior to CO2 injection or by injecting small amounts of CO2 into the two-phase (brine and CO2) system at different depths. In a first step, the introduced pressure responses at observation locations are utilized for a computationally rapid and efficient eikonal equation based inversion to reconstruct the heterogeneity of the subsurface with diffusivity (D) tomograms. Information about the plume shape can be derived by comparing D-tomograms of the aquifer at different times. In a second step, the aquifer is subdivided into two zones of constant values of hydraulic conductivity (K) and specific storage (Ss) through a clustering approach. For the CO2 plume, mixed-phase K and Ss values are estimated by minimizing the difference between calculated and “true” pressure responses using a single-phase flow simulator to reduce the computing complexity. Finally, the estimated flow property is converted to gas saturation by a single-phase proxy, which represents an integrated value of the plume. This novel approach is tested first with a doublet well configuration, and it reveals a great potential of pressure tomography based concepts for characterizing and monitoring deep aquifers, as well as the evolution of a CO2 plume. Still, field-testing will be required for better assessing the applicability of this approach.

Psychological predictors of eco-driving: A longitudinal study

Eco-driving has well-known positive effects on fuel economy and greenhouse-gas emissions. Moreover, eco-driving reduces road-traffic noise, which is a serious threat to the health and well-being of many people. We investigated the psychological predictors of the adoption of eco-driving from the perspective of road-traffic noise abatement. The data came from 890 car drivers who participated in a longitudinal survey over four months. Specifically, we tested the effects of the intention to prevent road-traffic noise, variables derived from the theory of planned behavior (social norm, perceived behavioral control, and attitude), and variables derived from the health action process approach (implementation intention, maintenance self-efficacy, and action control) on the intention to practice eco-driving and on eco-driving behavior. The intention to prevent road-traffic noise was not linked to the intention to practice eco-driving. The strongest predictors of the intention to practice eco-driving were attitude and perceived behavioral control. The strongest predictor of eco-driving behavior was action control. The link between behavioral intention and behavior was weak, indicating that drivers have difficulties putting their intention to practice eco-driving into action. Therefore, intervention efforts should directly address and support the transition from intention to behavior. This could be accomplished by providing reminders, which help to maintain behavioral intention, and by providing behavior feedback, which helps car drivers to monitor their behavior.

An inter-regional assessment of concentrations and δ13C values of methane and dissolved inorganic carbon in small European lakes

Methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide emissions from lakes are relevant for assessing the greenhouse gas output of wetlands. However, only few standardized datasets describe concentrations of these gases in lakes across different geographical regions. We studied concentrations and stable carbon isotopic composition (δ13C) of CH4 and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in 32 small lakes from Finland, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland in late summer. Higher concentrations and δ13C values of DIC were observed in calcareous lakes than in lakes on non-calcareous areas. In stratified lakes, δ13C values of DIC were generally lower in the hypolimnion due to the degradation of organic matter (OM). Unexpectedly, increased δ13C values of DIC were registered above the sediment in several lakes. This may reflect carbonate dissolution in calcareous lakes or methanogenesis in deepwater layers or in the sediments. Surface water CH4 concentrations were generally higher in western and central European lakes than in Fennoscandian lakes, possibly due to higher CH4 production in the littoral sediments and lateral transport, whereas CH4 concentrations in the hypolimnion did not differ significantly between the regions. The δ13C values of CH4 in the sediment suggest that δ13C values of biogenic CH4 are not necessarily linked to δ13C values of sedimentary OM but may be strongly influenced by OM quality and methanogenic pathway. Our study suggests that CH4 and DIC cycling in small lakes differ between geographical regions and that this should be taken into account when regional studies on greenhouse gas emissions are upscaled to inter-regional scales.

Hand in hand: public endorsement of climate change mitigation and adaptation

This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.

Natural and anthropogenic methane fluxes in Eurasia: a mesoscale quantification by generalized atmospheric inversion

Eight surface observation sites providing quasi-continuous measurements of atmospheric methane mixingratios have been operated since the mid-2000’s in Siberia. For the first time in a single work, we assimilate 1 year of these in situ observations in an atmospheric inversion. Our objective is to quantify methane surface fluxes from anthropogenic and wetland sources at the mesoscale in the Siberian lowlands for the year 2010. To do so, we first inquire about the way the inversion uses the observations and the way the fluxes are constrained by the observation sites. As atmospheric inver- sions at the mesoscale suffer from mis-quantified sources of uncertainties, we follow recent innovations in inversion techniques and use a new inversion approach which quantifies the uncertainties more objectively than the previous inversion systems. We find that, due to errors in the representation of the atmospheric transport and redundant pieces of information, only one observation every few days is found valuable by the inversion. The remaining high-resolution quasi-continuous signal is representative of very local emission patterns difficult to analyse with a mesoscale system. An analysis of the use of information by the inversion also reveals that the observation sites constrain methane emissions within a radius of 500 km. More observation sites than the ones currently in operation are then necessary to constrain the whole Siberian lowlands. Still, the fluxes within the constrained areas are quantified with objectified uncertainties. Finally, the tolerance intervals for posterior methane fluxes are of roughly 20 % (resp. 50 %) of the fluxes for anthropogenic (resp. wetland) sources. About 50–70 % of Siberian lowlands emissions are constrained by the inversion on average on an annual basis. Extrapolating the figures on the constrained areas to the whole Siberian lowlands, we find a regional methane budget of 5–28 TgCH4 for the year 2010, i.e. 1–5 % of the global methane emissions. As very few in situ observations are available in the region of interest, observations of methane total columns from the Greenhouse Gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT) are tentatively used for the evaluation of the inversion results, but they exhibit only a marginal signal from the fluxes within the region of interest.

Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions

Temperature changes in Antarctica over the last millennium are investigated using proxy records, a set of simulations driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings and one simulation with data assimilation. Over Antarctica, a long term cooling trend in annual mean is simulated during the period 1000–1850. The main contributor to this cooling trend is the volcanic forcing, astronomical forcing playing a dominant role at seasonal timescale. Since 1850, all the models produce an Antarctic warming in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. We present a composite of Antarctic temperature, calculated by averaging seven temperature records derived from isotope measurements in ice cores. This simple approach is supported by the coherency displayed between model results at these data grid points and Antarctic mean temperature. The composite shows a weak multi-centennial cooling trend during the pre-industrial period and a warming after 1850 that is broadly consistent with model results. In both data and simulations, large regional variations are superimposed on this common signal, at decadal to centennial timescales. The model results appear spatially more consistent than ice core records. We conclude that more records are needed to resolve the complex spatial distribution of Antarctic temperature variations during the last millennium.

Subsidies, Clean Energy, and Climate Change

Estimates show that fossil fuel subsidies average USD 400–600 billion annually worldwide while renewable energy (RE) subsidies amounted to USD 66 billion in 2010 and are predicted to rise to USD 250 billion annually by 2035. Domestic political rationales for energy subsidies include promoting innovation, job creation and economic growth, energy security, and independence. Energy subsidies may also serve social and environmental goals. Whether and to what extent subsidies are effective to achieve these goals or instead lead to market distortions is a matter of much debate and the trade effects of energy subsidies are complex. This paper offers an overview of the types of energy subsidies that are used in the conventional and renewable energy sectors, and their relationship with climate change, in particular greenhouse gas emissions. While the WTO’s Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (ASCM) is mostly concerned with harm to competitors, this paper considers the extent to which the Agreement could also discipline subsidies that cause harm to the environment as a global common. Beyond the existing legal framework, this paper surveys a number of alternatives for improving the ability of subsidies disciplines to internalize climate change costs of energy production and consumption. One option is a new multilateral agreement on subsidies or trade remedies (with an appropriate carve-out in the WTO regime to allow for it if such an agreement is concluded outside it). Alternatively, climate change-related subsidies could be included as part of another multilateral regime or as part of regional agreements. A third approach would be to incorporate rules on energy subsidies in sectorial agreements, including a Sustainable Energy Trade Agreement such as has been proposed in other ICTSD studies.

Continuous CO2/CH4/CO measurements (2012–2014) at Beromünster tall tower station in Switzerland

The understanding of the continental carbon budget is essential to predict future climate change. In order to quantify CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes at the regional scale, a measurement system was installed at the former radio tower in Beromünster as part of the Swiss greenhouse gas monitoring network (CarboCount CH). We have been measuring the mixing ratios of CO₂, CH₄ and CO on this tower with sample inlets at 12.5, 44.6, 71.5, 131.6 and 212.5 m above ground level using a cavity ring down spectroscopy (CRDS) analyzer. The first 2-year (December 2012–December 2014) continuous atmospheric record was analyzed for seasonal and diurnal variations and interspecies correlations. In addition, storage fluxes were calculated from the hourly profiles along the tower. The atmospheric growth rates from 2013 to 2014 determined from this 2-year data set were 1.78 ppm yr⁻¹, 9.66 ppb yr⁻¹ and and -1.27 ppb yr⁻¹ for CO₂, CH₄ and CO, respectively. After detrending, clear seasonal cycles were detected for CO₂ and CO, whereas CH₄ showed a stable baseline suggesting a net balance between sources and sinks over the course of the year. CO and CO₂ were strongly correlated (r² > 0.75) in winter (DJF), but almost uncorrelated in summer. In winter, anthropogenic emissions dominate the biospheric CO₂ fluxes and the variations in mixing ratios are large due to reduced vertical mixing. The diurnal variations of all species showed distinct cycles in spring and summer, with the lowest sampling level showing the most pronounced diurnal amplitudes. The storage flux estimates exhibited reasonable diurnal shapes for CO₂, but underestimated the strength of the surface sinks during daytime. This seems plausible, keeping in mind that we were only able to calculate the storage fluxes along the profile of the tower but not the flux into or out of this profile, since no Eddy covariance flux measurements were taken at the top of the tower.

Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH₄) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH₄ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yr⁻¹ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yr⁻¹ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH₄ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH₄ emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH₄ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yr⁻¹ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yr⁻¹ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH₄ emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.