Effects of study precision and risk of bias in networks of interventions: a network meta-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND Empirical research has illustrated an association between study size and relative treatment effects, but conclusions have been inconsistent about the association of study size with the risk of bias items. Small studies give generally imprecisely estimated treatment effects, and study variance can serve as a surrogate for study size. METHODS We conducted a network meta-epidemiological study analyzing 32 networks including 613 randomized controlled trials, and used Bayesian network meta-analysis and meta-regression models to evaluate the impact of trial characteristics and study variance on the results of network meta-analysis. We examined changes in relative effects and between-studies variation in network meta-regression models as a function of the variance of the observed effect size and indicators for the adequacy of each risk of bias item. Adjustment was performed both within and across networks, allowing for between-networks variability. RESULTS Imprecise studies with large variances tended to exaggerate the effects of the active or new intervention in the majority of networks, with a ratio of odds ratios of 1.83 (95% CI: 1.09,3.32). Inappropriate or unclear conduct of random sequence generation and allocation concealment, as well as lack of blinding of patients and outcome assessors, did not materially impact on the summary results. Imprecise studies also appeared to be more prone to inadequate conduct. CONCLUSIONS Compared to more precise studies, studies with large variance may give substantially different answers that alter the results of network meta-analyses for dichotomous outcomes.

Prevalence and Clinical Significance of DSM-5-Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in Adolescents and Young Adults in the General Population: The Bern Epidemiological At-Risk (BEAR) Study

Objective: Section III of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) lists attenuated psychosis syndrome as a condition for further study. One important question is its prevalence and clinical significance in the general population. Method: Analyses involved 1229 participants (age 16-40 years) from the general population of Canton Bern, Switzerland, enrolled from June 2011 to July 2012. "Symptom," "onset/worsening," "frequency," and "distress/disability" criteria of attenuated psychosis syndrome were assessed using the structured interview for psychosis-risk syndromes. Furthermore, help-seeking, psychosocial functioning, and current nonpsychotic axis I disorders were surveyed. Well-trained psychologists performed assessments using the computer-assisted telephone interviewing technique. Results: The symptom criterion was met by 12.9% of participants, onset/worsening by 1.1%, frequency by 3.8%, and distress/disability by 7.0%. Symptom, frequency, and distress/disability were met by 3.2%. Excluding trait-like attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) decreased the prevalence to 2.6%, while adding onset/worsening reduced it to 0.3%. APS were associated with functional impairments, current mental disorders, and help-seeking although they were not a reason for help-seeking. These associations were weaker for attenuated psychosis syndrome. Conclusions: At the population level, only 0.3% met current attenuated psychosis syndrome criteria. Particularly, the onset/worsening criterion, originally included to increase the likelihood of progression to psychosis, lowered its prevalence. Because progression is not required for a self-contained syndrome, a revision of the restrictive onset criterion is proposed to avoid the exclusion of 2.3% of persons who experience and are distressed by APS from mental health care. Secondary analyses suggest that a revised syndrome would also possess higher clinical significance than the current syndrome.

Home artificial nutrition in Switzerland: an epidemiological survey from 2005 to 2009.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Home artificial nutrition (HAN), including oral nutritional supplements (ONS) and enteral (HEN) and parenteral (HPN) nutrition, is an established, important treatment for malnourished patients. The aim of this study was to analyze the epidemiological data of patients on HAN in Switzerland. METHODS This retrospective study recorded all new cases of HAN in Switzerland from January 2005 to December 2009. RESULTS A total of 12,917 cases were recorded: 6,731 (52%) males and 6,186 (48%) females, with a mean age of 65.0 ± 17.6 years. The number of patients on ONS was 7,827 (57.4%), on HEN 3,966 (39.4%) and on HPN 433 (3.2%). The most common underlying disease category was neoplasms (6,519, 50.7%). The number of patients on ONS increased from 57.0% (n = 1,252) to 60.8% (n = 2,039), and on HPN from 2.1% (n = 45) to 4.0% (n = 134) between 2005 and 2009. CONCLUSIONS This first analysis of the large-scale Swiss registry of HAN shows that approximately half of the patients received ONS, whereas HPN was rarely delivered. The frequency of ONS and HPN increased from the year 2005 to 2009. In accordance with previous European studies, malignant tumors were by far the most frequent indication for HAN.

An epidemiological evaluation of pediatric long bone fractures - a retrospective cohort study of 2716 patients from two Swiss tertiary pediatric hospitals.

BACKGROUND Children and adolescents are at high risk of sustaining fractures during growth. Therefore, epidemiological assessment is crucial for fracture prevention. The AO Comprehensive Injury Automatic Classifier (AO COIAC) was used to evaluate epidemiological data of pediatric long bone fractures in a large cohort. METHODS Data from children and adolescents with long bone fractures sustained between 2009 and 2011, treated at either of two tertiary pediatric surgery hospitals in Switzerland, were retrospectively collected. Fractures were classified according to the AO Pediatric Comprehensive Classification of Long Bone Fractures (PCCF). RESULTS For a total of 2716 patients (60% boys), 2807 accidents with 2840 long bone fractures (59% radius/ulna; 21% humerus; 15% tibia/fibula; 5% femur) were documented. Children's mean age (SD) was 8.2 (4.0) years (6% infants; 26% preschool children; 40% school children; 28% adolescents). Adolescent boys sustained more fractures than girls (p < 0.001). The leading cause of fractures was falls (27%), followed by accidents occurring during leisure activities (25%), at home (14%), on playgrounds (11%), and traffic (11%) and school accidents (8%). There was boy predominance for all accident types except for playground and at home accidents. The distribution of accident types differed according to age classes (p < 0.001). Twenty-six percent of patients were classed as overweight or obese - higher than data published by the WHO for the corresponding ages - with a higher proportion of overweight and obese boys than in the Swiss population (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION Overall, differences in the fracture distribution were sex and age related. Overweight and obese patients seemed to be at increased risk of sustaining fractures. Our data give valuable input into future development of prevention strategies. The AO PCCF proved to be useful in epidemiological reporting and analysis of pediatric long bone fractures.

Patients with community acquired pneumonia admitted to European intensive care units: an epidemiological survey of the GenOSept cohort.

INTRODUCTION Community acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the most common infectious reason for admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). The GenOSept study was designed to determine genetic influences on sepsis outcome. Phenotypic data was recorded using a robust clinical database allowing a contemporary analysis of the clinical characteristics, microbiology, outcomes and independent risk factors in patients with severe CAP admitted to ICUs across Europe. METHODS Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to determine mortality rates. A Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) model was used to identify variables independently associated with 28-day and six-month mortality. RESULTS Data from 1166 patients admitted to 102 centres across 17 countries was extracted. Median age was 64 years, 62% were male. Mortality rate at 28 days was 17%, rising to 27% at six months. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the commonest organism isolated (28% of cases) with no organism identified in 36%. Independent risk factors associated with an increased risk of death at six months included APACHE II score (hazard ratio, HR, 1.03; confidence interval, CI, 1.01-1.05), bilateral pulmonary infiltrates (HR1.44; CI 1.11-1.87) and ventilator support (HR 3.04; CI 1.64-5.62). Haematocrit, pH and urine volume on day one were all associated with a worse outcome. CONCLUSIONS The mortality rate in patients with severe CAP admitted to European ICUs was 27% at six months. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the commonest organism isolated. In many cases the infecting organism was not identified. Ventilator support, the presence of diffuse pulmonary infiltrates, lower haematocrit, urine volume and pH on admission were independent predictors of a worse outcome.

Patients with faecal peritonitis admitted to European intensive care units: an epidemiological survey of the GenOSept cohort.

INTRODUCTION Faecal peritonitis (FP) is a common cause of sepsis and admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). The Genetics of Sepsis and Septic Shock in Europe (GenOSept) project is investigating the influence of genetic variation on the host response and outcomes in a large cohort of patients with sepsis admitted to ICUs across Europe. Here we report an epidemiological survey of the subset of patients with FP. OBJECTIVES To define the clinical characteristics, outcomes and risk factors for mortality in patients with FP admitted to ICUs across Europe. METHODS Data was extracted from electronic case report forms. Phenotypic data was recorded using a detailed, quality-assured clinical database. The primary outcome measure was 6-month mortality. Patients were followed for 6 months. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to determine mortality rates. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was employed to identify independent risk factors for mortality. RESULTS Data for 977 FP patients admitted to 102 centres across 16 countries between 29 September 2005 and 5 January 2011 was extracted. The median age was 69.2 years (IQR 58.3-77.1), with a male preponderance (54.3%). The most common causes of FP were perforated diverticular disease (32.1%) and surgical anastomotic breakdown (31.1%). The ICU mortality rate at 28 days was 19.1%, increasing to 31.6% at 6 months. The cause of FP, pre-existing co-morbidities and time from estimated onset of symptoms to surgery did not impact on survival. The strongest independent risk factors associated with an increased rate of death at 6 months included age, higher APACHE II score, acute renal and cardiovascular dysfunction within 1 week of admission to ICU, hypothermia, lower haematocrit and bradycardia on day 1 of ICU stay. CONCLUSIONS In this large cohort of patients admitted to European ICUs with FP the 6 month mortality was 31.6%. The most consistent predictors of mortality across all time points were increased age, development of acute renal dysfunction during the first week of admission, lower haematocrit and hypothermia on day 1 of ICU admission.

PEDro or Cochrane to Assess the Quality of Clinical Trials? A Meta-Epidemiological Study.

OBJECTIVE There is debate on how the methodological quality of clinical trials should be assessed. We compared trials of physical therapy (PT) judged to be of adequate quality based on summary scores from the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale with trials judged to be of adequate quality by Cochrane Risk of Bias criteria. DESIGN Meta-epidemiological study within Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. METHODS Meta-analyses of PT trials were identified in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. For each trial PeDro and Cochrane assessments were extracted from the PeDro and Cochrane databases. Adequate quality was defined as adequate generation of random sequence, concealment of allocation, and blinding of outcome assessors (Cochrane criteria) or as trials with a PEDro summary score ≥5 or ≥6 points. We combined trials of adequate quality using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS Forty-one Cochrane reviews and 353 PT trials were included. All meta-analyses included trials with PEDro scores ≥5, 37 (90.2%) included trials with PEDro scores ≥6 and only 22 (53.7%) meta-analyses included trials of adequate quality according to the Cochrane criteria. Agreement between PeDro and Cochrane was poor for PeDro scores of ≥5 points (kappa = 0.12; 95% CI 0.07 to 0.16) and slight for ≥6 points (kappa 0.24; 95% CI 0.16-0.32). When combining effect sizes of trials deemed to be of adequate quality according to PEDro or Cochrane criteria, we found that a substantial difference in the combined effect size (≥0.15) was evident in 9 (22%) out of the 41 meta-analyses for PEDro cutoff ≥5 and 10 (24%) for cutoff ≥6. CONCLUSIONS The PeDro and Cochrane approaches lead to different sets of trials of adequate quality, and different combined treatment estimates from meta-analyses of these trials. A consistent approach to assessing RoB in trials of physical therapy should be adopted.

What is the influence of randomisation sequence generation and allocation concealment on treatment effects of physical therapy trials? A meta-epidemiological study.

OBJECTIVE To determine if adequacy of randomisation and allocation concealment is associated with changes in effect sizes (ES) when comparing physical therapy (PT) trials with and without these methodological characteristics. DESIGN Meta-epidemiological study. PARTICIPANTS A random sample of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) included in meta-analyses in the PT discipline were identified. INTERVENTION Data extraction including assessments of random sequence generation and allocation concealment was conducted independently by two reviewers. To determine the association between sequence generation, and allocation concealment and ES, a two-level analysis was conducted using a meta-meta-analytic approach. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES association between random sequence generation and allocation concealment and ES in PT trials. RESULTS 393 trials included in 43 meta-analyses, analysing 44 622 patients contributed to this study. Adequate random sequence generation and appropriate allocation concealment were accomplished in only 39.7% and 11.5% of PT trials, respectively. Although trials with inappropriate allocation concealment tended to have an overestimate treatment effect when compared with trials with adequate concealment of allocation, the difference was non-statistically significant (ES=0.12; 95% CI -0.06 to 0.30). When pooling our results with those of Nuesch et al, we obtained a pooled statistically significant value (ES=0.14; 95% CI 0.02 to 0.26). There was no difference in ES in trials with appropriate or inappropriate random sequence generation (ES=0.02; 95% CI -0.12 to 0.15). CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that when evaluating risk of bias of primary RCTs in PT area, systematic reviewers and clinicians implementing research into practice should pay attention to these biases since they could exaggerate treatment effects. Systematic reviewers should perform sensitivity analysis including trials with low risk of bias in these domains as primary analysis and/or in combination with less restrictive analyses. Authors and editors should make sure that allocation concealment and random sequence generation are properly reported in trial reports.

Towards harmonised procedures in wildlife epidemiological investigations: A serosurvey of infection with Mycobacterium bovis and closely related agents in wild boar (Sus scrofa) in Switzerland

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a (re-)emerging disease in European countries, including Switzerland. This study assesses the seroprevalence of infection with Mycobacterium bovis and closely related agents in wild boar (Sus scrofa) in Switzerland, because wild boar are potential maintenance hosts of these pathogens. The study employs harmonised laboratory methods to facilitate comparison with the situation in other countries. Eighteen out of 743 blood samples tested seropositive (2.4%, CI: 1.5-3.9%) by ELISA, and the results for 61 animals previously assessed using culture and PCR indicated that this serological test was not 100% specific for M. bovis, cross-reacting with M. microti. Nevertheless, serology appears to be an appropriate test methodology in the harmonisation of wild boar testing throughout Europe. In accordance with previous findings, the low seroprevalence found in wild boar suggests wildlife is an unlikely source of the M. bovis infections recently detected in cattle in Switzerland. This finding contrasts with the epidemiological situation pertaining in southern Spain.

Late presentation for HIV care across Europe: update from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) study, 2010 to 2013.

Late presentation (LP) for HIV care across Europe remains a significant issue. We provide a cross-European update from 34 countries on the prevalence and risk factors of LP for 2010-2013. People aged ≥ 16 presenting for HIV care (earliest of HIV-diagnosis, first clinic visit or cohort enrollment) after 1 January 2010 with available CD4 count within six months of presentation were included. LP was defined as presentation with a CD4 count < 350/mm(3) or an AIDS defining event (at any CD4), in the six months following HIV diagnosis. Logistic regression investigated changes in LP over time. A total of 30,454 people were included. The median CD4 count at presentation was 368/mm(3) (interquartile range (IQR) 193-555/mm(3)), with no change over time (p = 0.70). In 2010, 4,775/10,766 (47.5%) were LP whereas in 2013, 1,642/3,375 (48.7%) were LP (p = 0.63). LP was most common in central Europe (4,791/9,625, 49.8%), followed by northern (5,704/11,692; 48.8%), southern (3,550/7,760; 45.8%) and eastern Europe (541/1,377; 38.3%; p < 0.0001). There was a significant increase in LP in male and female people who inject drugs (PWID) (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)/year later 1.16; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.32), and a significant decline in LP in northern Europe (aOR/year later 0.89; 95% CI: 0.85-0.94). Further improvements in effective HIV testing strategies, with a focus on vulnerable groups, are required across the European continent.