How stable are 20th century calibration models? A high-resolution summer temperature reconstruction for the eastern Swiss Alps back to A.D. 1580 derived from proglacial varved sediments

We found a significant positive correlation between local summer air temperature (May-September) and the annual sediment mass accumulation rate (MAR) in Lake Silvaplana (46°N, 9°E, 1800 m a.s.l.) during the twentieth century (r = 0.69, p < 0.001 for decadal smoothed series). Sediment trap data (2001-2005) confirm this relation with exceptionally high particle yields during the hottest summer of the last 140 years in 2003. On this base we developed a decadal-scale summer temperature reconstruction back to AD 1580. Surprisingly, the comparison of our reconstruction with two other independent regional summer temperature reconstructions (based on tree-rings and documentary data) revealed a significant negative correlation for the pre-1900 data (ie, late ‘Little Ice Age’). This demonstrates that the correlation between MAR and summer temperature is not stable in time and the actualistic principle does not apply in this case. We suggest that different climatic regimes (modern/‘Little Ice Age’) lead to changing state conditions in the catchment and thus to considerably different sediment transport mechanisms. Therefore, we calibrated our MAR data with gridded early instrumental temperature series from AD 1760-1880 (r = -0.48, p < 0.01 for decadal smoothed series) to properly reconstruct the late LIA climatic conditions. We found exceptionally low temperatures between AD 1580 and 1610 (0.75°C below twentieth-century mean) and during the late Maunder Minimum from AD 1680 to 1710 (0.5°C below twentieth-century mean). In general, summer temperatures did not experience major negative departures from the twentieth-century mean during the late ‘Little Ice Age’. This compares well with the two existing independent regional reconstructions suggesting that the LIA in the Alps was mainly a phenomenon of the cold season.

Late Pleistocene glaciation in the Central Andes: Temperature versus humidity control A case study from the eastern Bolivian Andes (17°S) and regional synthesis

A glacier–climate model was used to calculate climatic conditions in a test site on the east Andean slope around Cochabamba (17°S, Bolivia) for the time of the maximum Late Pleistocene glaciation. Results suggest a massive temperature reduction of about − 6.4 °C (+ 1.4/− 1.3 °C), combined with annual precipitation rates of about 1100 mm (+ 570 mm/− 280 mm). This implies no major change in annual precipitation compared with today. Summer precipitation was the source for the humidity in the past, as is the case today. This climate scenario argues for a maximum advance of the paleo-glaciers in the eastern cordillera during the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 20 ka BP), which is confirmed by exposure age dates. In a synthesized view over the central Andes, the results point to an increased summer precipitation-driven Late Glacial (15–10 ka BP) maximum advance in the western part of the Altiplano (18°S–23°S), a temperature-driven maximum advance during full glacial times (LGM) in the eastern cordillera, and a pre- and post-LGM (32 ka BP/14 ka BP) maximum advance around 30°S related to increased precipitation and reduced temperature on the western slope of the Andes. The results indicate the importance of understanding the seasonality and details of the mass balance–climate interaction in order to disentangle drivers for the observed regionally asynchronous past glaciations in the central Andes.

Provenance discrimination of Lower Cretaceous synrift sandstones (eastern Iberian Chain Spain) Constraints from detrital modes heavy minerals and geochemistry

Petrography, geochemical whole-rock composition, and chemical analyses of tourmaline were performed in order to determine the source areas of Lower Cretaceous Mora, El Castellar, and uppermost Camarillas Formation sandstones from the Iberian Chain, Spain. Sandstones were deposited in intraplate subbasins, which are bound by plutonic and volcanic rocks of Permian, Triassic, and Jurassic age, Paleozoic metamorphic rocks, and Triassic sedimentary rocks. Modal analyses together with petrographic and cathodoluminescence observations allowed us to define three quartz-feldspathic petrofacies and recognize diagenetic processes that modified the original framework composition. Results from average restored petrofacies are: Mora petrofacies = P/F >1 and Q(r)70 F(r)22 R(r)9; El Castellar petrofacies = P/F >1 and Q(r)57 F(r)25 R(r)18; and Camarillas petrofacies = P/F ∼ zero and Q(r)64 F(r)28 R(r)7 (P—plagioclase; F—feldspar; Q—quartz; R—rock fragments; r—restored composition). Trace-element and rare earth element abundances of whole-rock analyses discriminate well between the three petrofacies based on: (1) the Rb concentration, which is indicative of the K content and reflects the amount of K-feldspar modal abundance, and (2) the relative modal abundance of heavy minerals (tourmaline, zircon, titanite, and apatite), which is reproduced by the elements hosted in the observed heavy mineral assemblage (i.e., B and Li for tourmaline; Zr, Hf, and Ta for zircon; Ti, Ta, Nb, and their rare earth elements for titanite; and P, Y, and their rare earth elements for apatite). Tourmaline chemical composition for the three petrofacies ranges from Fe-tourmaline of granitic to Mg-tourmaline of metamorphic origin. The three defined petrofacies suggest a mixed provenance from plutonic and metamorphic source rocks. However, a progressively major influence of granitic source rocks was detected from the lowermost Mora petrofacies toward the uppermost Camarillas petrofacies. This provenance trend is consistent with the uplift and erosion of the Iberian Massif, which coincided with the development of the latest Berriasian synrift regional unconformity and affected all of the Iberian intraplate basins. The uplifting stage of Iberian Massif pluton caused a significant dilution of Paleozoic metamorphic source areas, which were dominant during the sedimentation of the lowermost Mora and El Castellar petrofacies. The association of petrographic data with whole-rock geochemical compositions and tourmaline chemical analysis has proved to be useful for determining source area characteristics, their predominance, and the evolution of source rock types during the deposition of quartz-feldspathic sandstones in intraplate basins. This approach ensures that provenance interpretation is consistent with the geological context.

Mortality from HIV and TB coinfections is higher in Eastern Europe than in Western Europe and Argentina

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of death in HIV-infected patients worldwide. We aimed to study clinical characteristics and outcome of 1075 consecutive patients diagnosed with HIV/TB from 2004 to 2006 in Europe and Argentina. METHODS: One-year mortality was assessed in patients stratified according to region of residence, and factors associated with death were evaluated in multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: At TB diagnosis, patients in Eastern Europe had less advanced immunodeficiency, whereas a greater proportion had a history of intravenous drug use, coinfection with hepatitis C, disseminated TB, and infection with drug-resistant TB (P < 0.0001). In Eastern Europe, fewer patients initiated TB treatment containing at least rifamycin, isoniazid, and pyrazinamide or combination antiretroviral therapy (P < 0.0001). Mortality at 1 year was 27% in Eastern Europe, compared with 7, 9 and 11% in Central/Northern Europe, Southern Europe, and Argentina, respectively (P < 0.0001). In a multivariable model, the adjusted relative hazard of death was significantly lower in each of the other regions compared with Eastern Europe: 0.34 (95% confidence interval 0.17-0.65), 0.28 (0.14-0.57), 0.34 (0.15-0.77) in Argentina, Southern Europe and Central/Northern Europe, respectively. Factors significantly associated with increased mortality were CD4 cell count less than 200 cells/microl [2.31 (1.56-3.45)], prior AIDS [1.74 (1.22-2.47)], disseminated TB [2.00 (1.38-2.85)], initiation of TB treatment not including rifamycin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide [1.68 (1.20-2.36)], and rifamycin resistance [2.10 (1.29-3.41)]. Adjusting for these known confounders did not explain the increased mortality seen in Eastern Europe. CONCLUSION: The poor outcome of patients with HIV/TB in Eastern Europe deserves further study and urgent public health attention.