CONMICOM – conflict mitigation in communities: LforS learning and simulation game

Three extended families live around a lake. One family are rice farmers, the second family are vegetable farmers, and the third are a family of livestock herders. All of them depend on the use of lake water for their production, and all of them need large quantities of water. All are dependent on the use of the lake water to secure their livelihood. In the game, the families are represented by their councils of elders. Each of the councils has to find means and ways to increase production in order to keep up with the growth of its family and their demands. This puts more and more pressure on the water resources, increasing the risk of overuse. Conflicts over water are about to emerge between the families. Each council of elders must try to pursue its families interests, while at the same time preventing excessive pressure on the water resources. Once a council of elders is no longer able to meet the needs of its family, it is excluded from the game. Will the parties cooperate or compete? To face the challenge of balancing economic well-being, sustainable resource management, and individual and collective interests, the three parties have a set of options for action at hand. These include power play to safeguard their own interests, communication and cooperation to negotiate with neighbours, and searching for alternatives to reduce pressure on existing water resources. During the game the players can experience how tensions may arise, increase and finally escalate. They realise what impact power play has and how alliances form, and the importance of trust-building measures, consensus and cooperation. From the insights gained, important conflict prevention and mitigation measures are derived in a debriefing session. The game is facilitated by a moderator, and lasts for 3-4 hours. Aim of the game: Each family pursues the objective of serving its own interests and securing its position through appropriate strategies and skilful negotiation, while at the same time optimising use of the water resources in a way that prevents their degradation. The end of the game is open. While the game may end by one or two families dropping out because they can no longer secure their subsistence, it is also possible that the three families succeed in creating a situation that allows them to meet their own needs as well as the requirements for sustainable water use in the long term. Learning objectives The game demonstrates how tension builds up, increases, and finally escalates; it shows how power positions work and alliances are formed; and it enables the players to experience the great significance of mutual agreement and cooperation. During the game and particularly during the debriefing and evaluation session it is important to link experiences made during the game to the players’ real-life experiences, and to discuss these links in the group. The resulting insights will provide a basis for deducing important conflict prevention and transformation measures.

Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

A new system for computer-aided preoperative planning and intraoperative navigation during corrective jaw surgery

A new system for computer-aided corrective surgery of the jaws has been developed and introduced clinically. It combines three-dimensional (3-D) surgical planning with conventional dental occlusion planning. The developed software allows simulating the surgical correction on virtual 3-D models of the facial skeleton generated from computed tomography (CT) scans. Surgery planning and simulation include dynamic cephalometry, semi-automatic mirroring, interactive cutting of bone and segment repositioning. By coupling the software with a tracking system and with the help of a special registration procedure, we are able to acquire dental occlusion plans from plaster model mounts. Upon completion of the surgical plan, the setup is used to manufacture positioning splints for intraoperative guidance. The system provides further intraoperative assistance with the help of a display showing jaw positions and 3-D positioning guides updated in real time during the surgical procedure. The proposed approach offers the advantages of 3-D visualization and tracking technology without sacrificing long-proven cast-based techniques for dental occlusion evaluation. The system has been applied on one patient. Throughout this procedure, we have experienced improved assessment of pathology, increased precision, and augmented control.

The Assessment of Multiple Processes Underlying the Attentional Blink: A Fixed - links Modeling Approach based on Behavioral and Electrophysiological Data

When observers are presented with two visual targets appearing in the same position in close temporal proximity, a marked reduction in detection performance of the second target has often been reported, the so-called attentional blink phenomenon. Several studies found a similar decrement of P300 amplitudes during the attentional blink period as observed with detection performances of the second target. However, whether the parallel courses of second target performances and corresponding P300 amplitudes resulted from the same underlying mechanisms remained unclear. The aim of our study was therefore to investigate whether the mechanisms underlying the AB can be assessed by fixed-links modeling and whether this kind of assessment would reveal the same or at least related processes in the behavioral and electrophysiological data. On both levels of observation three highly similar processes could be identified: an increasing, a decreasing and a u-shaped trend. Corresponding processes from the behavioral and electrophysiological data were substantially correlated, with the two u-shaped trends showing the strongest association with each other. Our results provide evidence for the assumption that the same mechanisms underlie attentional blink task performance at the electrophysiological and behavioral levels as assessed by fixed-links models.

Experimenting and modeling: sharp distinctions, integration or just a mess?

At first sight, experimenting and modeling form two distinct modes of scientific inquiry. This spurs philosophical debates about how the distinction should be drawn (e.g. Morgan 2005, Winsberg 2009, Parker 2009). But much scientific practice casts serious doubts on the idea that the distinction makes much sense. There are two worries. First, the practices of modeling and experimenting are often intertwined in intricate ways because much modeling involves experimenting, and the interpretation of many experiments relies upon models. Second, there are borderline cases that seem to blur the distinction between experiment and model (if there is any). My talk tries to defend the philosophical project of distinguishing models from experiment and to advance the related philosophical debate. I begin with providing a minimalist framework of conceptualizing experimenting and modeling and their mutual relationships. The methods are conceptualized as different types of activities that are characterized by a primary goal, respectively. The minimalist framwork, which should be uncontroversial, suffices to accommodate the first worry. I address the second worry by suggesting several ways how to conceptualize the distinction in a more flexible way. I make a concrete suggestion of how the distinction may be drawn. I use examples from the history of science to argue my case. The talk concentrates and models and experiments, but I will comment on simulations too.

Preliminary Study on Finite Element Simulation for Optimizing Acetabulum Reorientation after Periacetabular Osteotomy

Periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) is an effective approach for surgical treatment of hip dysplasia. The aim of PAO is to increase acetabular coverage of the femoral head and to reduce contact pressures by reorienting the acetabulum fragment after PAO. The success of PAO significantly depends on the surgeon’s experience. Previously, we have developed a computer-assisted planning and navigation system for PAO, which allows for not only quantifying the 3D hip morphology for a computer-assisted diagnosis of hip dysplasia but also a virtual PAO surgical planning and simulation. In this paper, based on this previously developed PAO planning and navigation system, we developed a 3D finite element (FE) model to investigate the optimal acetabulum reorientation after PAO. Our experimental results showed that an optimal position of the acetabulum can be achieved that maximizes contact area and at the same time minimizes peak contact pressure in pelvic and femoral cartilages. In conclusion, our computer-assisted planning and navigation system with FE modeling can be a promising tool to determine the optimal PAO planning strategy.