Age modeling of young non-varved lake sediments: methods and limits. Examples from two lakes in Central Chile

High-resolution and highly precise age models for recent lake sediments (last 100–150 years) are essential for quantitative paleoclimate research. These are particularly important for sedimentological and geochemical proxies, where transfer functions cannot be established and calibration must be based upon the relation of sedimentary records to instrumental data. High-precision dating for the calibration period is most critical as it determines directly the quality of the calibration statistics. Here, as an example, we compare radionuclide age models obtained on two high-elevation glacial lakes in the Central Chilean Andes (Laguna Negra: 33°38′S/70°08′W, 2,680 m a.s.l. and Laguna El Ocho: 34°02′S/70°19′W, 3,250 m a.s.l.). We show the different numerical models that produce accurate age-depth chronologies based on 210Pb profiles, and we explain how to obtain reduced age-error bars at the bottom part of the profiles, i.e., typically around the end of the 19th century. In order to constrain the age models, we propose a method with five steps: (i) sampling at irregularly-spaced intervals for 226Ra, 210Pb and 137Cs depending on the stratigraphy and microfacies, (ii) a systematic comparison of numerical models for the calculation of 210Pb-based age models: constant flux constant sedimentation (CFCS), constant initial concentration (CIC), constant rate of supply (CRS) and sediment isotope tomography (SIT), (iii) numerical constraining of the CRS and SIT models with the 137Cs chronomarker of AD 1964 and, (iv) step-wise cross-validation with independent diagnostic environmental stratigraphic markers of known age (e.g., volcanic ash layer, historical flood and earthquakes). In both examples, we also use airborne pollutants such as spheroidal carbonaceous particles (reflecting the history of fossil fuel emissions), excess atmospheric Cu deposition (reflecting the production history of a large local Cu mine), and turbidites related to historical earthquakes. Our results show that the SIT model constrained with the 137Cs AD 1964 peak performs best over the entire chronological profile (last 100–150 years) and yields the smallest standard deviations for the sediment ages. Such precision is critical for the calibration statistics, and ultimately, for the quality of the quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. The systematic comparison of CRS and SIT models also helps to validate the robustness of the chronologies in different sections of the profile. Although surprisingly poorly known and under-explored in paleolimnological research, the SIT model has a great potential in paleoclimatological reconstructions based on lake sediments

A chrysophyte stomatocyst-based reconstruction of cold-season air temperature from Alpine Lake Silvaplana (AD 1500–2003); methods and concepts for quantitative inferences

Relatively little is known about past cold-season temperature variability in high-Alpine regions because of a lack of natural cold-season temperature proxies as well as under-representation of high-altitude sites in meteorological, early-instrumental and documentary data sources. Recent studies have shown that chrysophyte stomatocysts, or simply cysts (sub-fossil algal remains of Chrysophyceae and Synurophyceae), are among the very few natural proxies that can be used to reconstruct cold-season temperatures. This study presents a quantitative, high-resolution (5-year), cold-season (Oct–May) temperature reconstruction based on sub-fossil chrysophyte stomatocysts in the annually laminated (varved) sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, SE Switzerland (1,789 m a.s.l.), since AD 1500. We first explore the method used to translate an ecologically meaningful variable based on a biological proxy into a simple climate variable. A transfer function was applied to reconstruct the ‘date of spring mixing’ from cyst assemblages. Next, statistical regression models were tested to convert the reconstructed ‘dates of spring mixing’ into cold-season surface air temperatures with associated errors. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach are thoroughly tested. One much-debated, basic assumption for reconstructions (‘stationarity’), which states that only the environmental variable of interest has influenced cyst assemblages and the influence of confounding variables is negligible over time, is addressed in detail. Our inferences show that past cold-season air-temperature fluctuations were substantial and larger than those of other temperature reconstructions for Europe and the Alpine region. Interestingly, in this study, recent cold-season temperatures only just exceed those of previous, multi-decadal warm phases since AD 1500. These findings highlight the importance of local studies to assess natural climate variability at high altitudes.

Cluster randomized clinical trials in orthodontics: design, analysis and reporting issues

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) use as the unit of randomization clusters, which are usually defined as a collection of individuals sharing some common characteristics. Common examples of clusters include entire dental practices, hospitals, schools, school classes, villages, and towns. Additionally, several measurements (repeated measurements) taken on the same individual at different time points are also considered to be clusters. In dentistry, CRTs are applicable as patients may be treated as clusters containing several individual teeth. CRTs require certain methodological procedures during sample calculation, randomization, data analysis, and reporting, which are often ignored in dental research publications. In general, due to similarity of the observations within clusters, each individual within a cluster provides less information compared with an individual in a non-clustered trial. Therefore, clustered designs require larger sample sizes compared with non-clustered randomized designs, and special statistical analyses that account for the fact that observations within clusters are correlated. It is the purpose of this article to highlight with relevant examples the important methodological characteristics of cluster randomized designs as they may be applied in orthodontics and to explain the problems that may arise if clustered observations are erroneously treated and analysed as independent (non-clustered).

STAR splicing mutations cause the severe phenotype of lipoid congenital adrenal hyperplasia: insights from a novel splice mutation and review of reported cases

OBJECTIVE The steroidogenic acute regulatory protein (StAR) transports cholesterol to the mitochondria for steroidogenesis. Loss of StAR function causes lipoid congenital adrenal hyperplasia (LCAH) which is characterized by impaired synthesis of adrenal and gonadal steroids causing adrenal insufficiency, 46,XY disorder of sex development (DSD) and failure of pubertal development. Partial loss of StAR activity may cause adrenal insufficiency only. PATIENT A newborn girl was admitted for mild dehydration, hyponatremia, hyperkalemia and hypoglycaemia and had normal external female genitalia without hyperpigmentation. Plasma cortisol, 17OH-progesterone, DHEA-S, androstendione and aldosterone were low, while ACTH and plasma renin activity were elevated, consistent with the diagnosis of primary adrenal insufficiency. Imaging showed normal adrenals, and cytogenetics revealed a 46,XX karyotype. She was treated with fluids, hydrocortisone and fludrocortisone. DESIGN, METHODS AND RESULTS Genetic studies revealed a novel homozygous STAR mutation in the 3' acceptor splice site of intron 4, c.466-1G>A (IVS4-1G>A). To test whether this mutation would affect splicing, we performed a minigene experiment with a plasmid construct containing wild-type or mutant StAR gDNA of exons-introns 4-6 in COS-1 cells. The splicing was assessed on total RNA using RT-PCR for STAR cDNAs. The mutant STAR minigene skipped exon 5 completely and changed the reading frame. Thus, it is predicted to produce an aberrant and shorter protein (p.V156GfsX19). Computational analysis revealed that this mutant protein lacks wild-type exons 5-7 which are essential for StAR-cholesterol interaction. CONCLUSIONS STAR c.466-1A skips exon 5 and causes a dramatic change in the C-terminal sequence of the protein, which is essential for StAR-cholesterol interaction. This splicing mutation is a loss-of-function mutation explaining the severe phenotype of our patient. Thus far, all reported splicing mutations of STAR cause a severe impairment of protein function and phenotype.

Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Kyrgyzstan: Seroprevalence, Risk Factor Analysis, and Estimate of Congenital and AIDS-Related Toxoplasmosis

Background HIV-prevalence, as well as incidence of zoonotic parasitic diseases like cystic echinococcosis, has increased in the Kyrgyz Republic due to fundamental socio-economic changes after the breakdown of the Soviet Union. The possible impact on morbidity and mortality caused by Toxoplasma gondii infection in congenital toxoplasmosis or as an opportunistic infection in the emerging AIDS pandemic has not been reported from Kyrgyzstan. Methodology/Principal Findings We screened 1,061 rural and 899 urban people to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in 2 representative but epidemiologically distinct populations in Kyrgyzstan. The rural population was from a typical agricultural district where sheep husbandry is a major occupation. The urban population was selected in collaboration with several diagnostic laboratories in Bishkek, the largest city in Kyrgyzstan. We designed a questionnaire that was used on all rural subjects so a risk-factor analysis could be undertaken. The samples from the urban population were anonymous and only data with regard to age and gender was available. Estimates of putative cases of congenital and AIDS-related toxoplasmosis in the whole country were made from the results of the serology. Specific antibodies (IgG) against Triton X-100 extracted antigens of T. gondii tachyzoites from in vitro cultures were determined by ELISA. Overall seroprevalence of infection with T. gondii in people living in rural vs. urban areas was 6.2% (95%CI: 4.8–7.8) (adjusted seroprevalence based on census figures 5.1%, 95% CI 3.9–6.5), and 19.0% (95%CI: 16.5–21.7) (adjusted 16.4%, 95% CI 14.1–19.3), respectively, without significant gender-specific differences. The seroprevalence increased with age. Independently low social status increased the risk of Toxoplasma seropositivity while increasing numbers of sheep owned decreased the risk of seropositivity. Water supply, consumption of unpasteurized milk products or undercooked meat, as well as cat ownership, had no significant influence on the risk for seropositivity. Conclusions We present a first seroprevalence analysis for human T. gondii infection in the Kyrgyz Republic. Based on these data we estimate that 173 (95% CI 136–216) Kyrgyz children will be born annually to mothers who seroconverted to toxoplasmosis during pregnancy. In addition, between 350 and 1,000 HIV-infected persons are currently estimated to be seropositive for toxoplasmosis. Taken together, this suggests a substantial impact of congenital and AIDS-related symptomatic toxoplasmosis on morbidity and mortality in Kyrgyzstan.

Design, synthesis and pharmacological characterization of analogs of 2-aminoethyl diphenylborinate (2-APB), a known store-operated calcium channel blocker, for inhibition of TRPV6-mediated calcium transport

2-Aminoethyl diphenylborinate (2-APB) is a known modulator of the IP3 receptor, the calcium ATPase SERCA, the calcium release-activated calcium channel Orai and TRP channels. More recently, it was shown that 2-APB is an efficient inhibitor of the epithelial calcium channel TRPV6 which is overexpressed in prostate cancer. We have conducted a structure-activity relationship study of 2-APB congeners to understand their inhibitory mode of action on TRPV6. Whereas modifying the aminoethyl moiety did not significantly change TRPV6 inhibition, substitution of the phenyl rings of 2-APB did. Our data show that the diaryl borinate moiety is required for biological activity and that the substitution pattern of the aryl rings can influence TRPV6 versus SOCE inhibition. We have also discovered that 2-APB is hydrolyzed and transesterified within minutes in solution.

The International ADHD in Substance Use Disorders Prevalence (IASP) study: background, methods and study population

Attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is an increasingly recognized comorbid condition in subjects with substance use disorders (SUDs). This paper describes the methods and study population of the International ADHD in Substance Use Disorders Prevalence (IASP) study. Objectives of the IASP are to determine the prevalence of ADHD in adult treatment seeking patients with SUD in different countries and SUD populations, determine the reliability and validity of the Adult ADHD Self-report Scale V 1.1 (ASRS) as ADHD screening instrument in SUD populations, investigate the comorbidity profile of SUD patients with and without ADHD, compare risk factors and protective factors in SUD patients with and without a comorbid diagnosis of ADHD, and increase our knowledge about the relationship between ADHD and the onset and course of SUD. In this cross-sectional, multi-centre two stage study, subjects were screened for ADHD with the ASRS, diagnosed with the Conner's Adult ADHD Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV (CAADID), and evaluated for SUD, major depression, bipolar disorder, anti social personality disorder and borderline personality disorder. Three thousand five hundred and fifty-eight subjects from 10 countries were included. Of these 40.9% screened positive for ADHD. This is the largest international study on this population evaluating ADHD and comorbid disorders.

Statistical Methods and the Meaning of Probabilities. A Philosopher Looks at Statistics

The talk starts out with a short introduction to the philosophy of probability. I highlight the need to interpret probabilities in the sciences and motivate objectivist accounts of probabilities. Very roughly, according to such accounts, ascriptions of probabilities have truth-conditions that are independent of personal interests and needs. But objectivist accounts are pointless if they do not provide an objectivist epistemology, i.e., if they do not determine well-defined methods to support or falsify claims about probabilities. In the rest of the talk I examine recent philosophical proposals for an objectivist methodology. Most of them take up ideas well-known from statistics. I nevertheless find some proposals incompatible with objectivist aspirations.

Therapeutic drug monitoring of once daily aminoglycoside dosing: comparison of two methods and investigation of the optimal blood sampling strategy.

PURPOSE Therapeutic drug monitoring of patients receiving once daily aminoglycoside therapy can be performed using pharmacokinetic (PK) formulas or Bayesian calculations. While these methods produced comparable results, their performance has never been checked against full PK profiles. We performed a PK study in order to compare both methods and to determine the best time-points to estimate AUC0-24 and peak concentrations (C max). METHODS We obtained full PK profiles in 14 patients receiving a once daily aminoglycoside therapy. PK parameters were calculated with PKSolver using non-compartmental methods. The calculated PK parameters were then compared with parameters estimated using an algorithm based on two serum concentrations (two-point method) or the software TCIWorks (Bayesian method). RESULTS For tobramycin and gentamicin, AUC0-24 and C max could be reliably estimated using a first serum concentration obtained at 1 h and a second one between 8 and 10 h after start of the infusion. The two-point and the Bayesian method produced similar results. For amikacin, AUC0-24 could reliably be estimated by both methods. C max was underestimated by 10-20% by the two-point method and by up to 30% with a large variation by the Bayesian method. CONCLUSIONS The ideal time-points for therapeutic drug monitoring of once daily administered aminoglycosides are 1 h after start of a 30-min infusion for the first time-point and 8-10 h after start of the infusion for the second time-point. Duration of the infusion and accurate registration of the time-points of blood drawing are essential for obtaining precise predictions.

Assessment of carotid calcifications on panoramic radiographs in relation to other used methods and relationship to periodontitis and stroke: a literature review

OBJECTIVES To assess the literature on carotid calcifications defined from panoramic radiographs (PMX) and concurrent diagnosis of stroke and periodontitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS A literature search screening for publications using search terms such as PMX and carotid calcification, stroke and periodontitis was performed in November 2012. RESULTS A total of 189 articles were retrieved, among which 30 were included in the review. The sensitivity for PMX findings of carotid calcifications (CC) compared to a diagnosis by Doppler sonography varied between 31.1-100%. The specificity for PMX findings of carotid calcifications compared to a diagnosis by Doppler sonography varied between 21.4-87.5%. Individuals with CC findings from PMX have more periodontitis and risk for stroke. CONCLUSIONS There is a shortage of well-designed studies in older dentate individuals assessing the associations between periodontitis and radiographic evidence of CC and in relation to stroke or other cardiovascular diseases. STATEMENT OF CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Carotid calcifications are prevalent in patients with periodontitis and such individuals may have an increased risk for stroke. The absence of signs of carotid calcification on panoramic radiographs is indicative of no calcification of carotid arteries.

Recommendations for sex/gender neuroimaging research: Key principles and implications for research design, analysis and interpretation

Neuroimaging (NI) technologies are having increasing impact in the study of complex cognitive and social processes. In this emerging field of social cognitive neuroscience, a central goal should be to increase the understanding of the interaction between the neurobiology of the individual and the environment in which humans develop and function. The study of sex/gender is often a focus for NI research, and may be motivated by a desire to better understand general developmental principles, mental health problems that show female-male disparities, and gendered differences in society. In order to ensure the maximum possible contribution of NI research to these goals, we draw attention to four key principles—overlap, mosaicism, contingency and entanglement—that have emerged from sex/gender research and that should inform NI research design, analysis and interpretation. We discuss the implications of these principles in the form of constructive guidelines and suggestions for researchers, editors, reviewers and science communicators.