Cool Glacial Temperatures and Changes in Moisture Source Recorded in Oman Groundwaters

Concentrations of atmospheric noble gases (neon, argon, krypton, and xenon) dissolved in groundwaters from northern Oman indicate that the average ground temperature during the Late Pleistocene (15,000 to 24,000 years before present) was 6.5° ± 0.6°C lower than that of today. Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic groundwater data show that the origin of atmospheric water vapor changed from a primarily southern, Indian Ocean source during the Late Pleistocene to a dominantly northern, Mediterranean source today. The reduced northern water vapor source is consistent with a drier Last Glacial Maximum through much of northern Africa and Arabia.

Neighbourhood abundance and small-tree survival in a lowland Bornean rainforest

Conspecific effects of neighbours on small-tree survival may have a role in tree population dynamics and community composition of tropical forests. This notion was tested with data from two 4-ha plots in lowland forest at Danum, Sabah (Borneo), for a 21-year interval (censuses at 1986, 1996, 2001, 2007). Species with ≥45 focal trees 10 to <100 cm stem girth per plot in 1986 were selected. Logistic regressions fitted mean focal tree size and mean inverse-distance-weighted basal area abundance of neighbours (within 20 m), for the periods over which each focus tree was alive. Coefficients of variation of neighbourhood basal area abundance, both spatially and temporally, quantified the changing environment of each focus tree. Fits were critically and individually evaluated, with corrections for spatial autocorrelation. Conspecific effects at Danum was generally very weak or non-existent: species’ mortality rates varied also across plots. The main reasons appear to be that (1) species were not dense enough to interact despite frequent although weak spatial aggregation, and their neighbourhoods were highly differing in species composition; and (2) these neighbourhoods were highly variable temporally, meaning that focus trees experienced stochastically fluctuating neighbourhood environments. Only one species, Dimorphocalyx muricatus, showed strong conspecific effects (varying between plots) which can be explained by its distinct ecology. This understorey species is highly aggregated on ridges and is drought-tolerant. That this functionally and habitat-specialized species, has implied intraspecific density-dependent feedback in its dynamics is a remarkable indication of the overall processes maintaining stability of the Danum forest.

The ecoclimatology of Danum, Sabah, in the context of the world's rainforest regions, with particular reference to dry periods and their impact

Climatic records for Danum for 1985 to 1998, elsewhere in Sabah since 1879, and long monthly rainfall series from other rainforest locations are used to place the climate, and particularly the dry period climatology, of Danum into a world rainforest context. The magnitude frequency and seasonality of dry periods are shown to vary greatly within the world's rainforest zone. The climate of Danum, which is aseasonal but subject, as in 1997 to 1998, to occasional drought, is intermediate between less drought–prone north–western Borneo and the more drought–prone east coast. Changes through time in drought magnitude frequency in Sabah and rainforest locations elsewhere in South–East Asia and in the Neotropics are compared. The 1997 to 1998 ENSO–related drought event in Sabah is placed into a historical context. The effects of drought on tree growth and mortality in the tropics are assessed and a model relating intensity and frequency of drought disturbance to forest structure and composition is discussed.

Modeling postglacial vegetation dynamics of temperate forests on the Olympic Peninsula (WA, USA) with special regard to snowpack

Past and future forest composition and distribution in temperate mountain ranges is strongly influenced by temperature and snowpack. We used LANDCLIM, a spatially explicit, dynamic vegetation model, to simulate forest dynamics for the last 16,000 years and compared the simulation results to pollen and macrofossil records at five sites on the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA). To address the hydrological effects of climate-driven variations in snowpack on simulated forest dynamics, we added a simple snow accumulation-and-melt module to the vegetation model and compared simulations with and without the module. LANDCLIM produced realistic present-day species composition with respect to elevation and precipitation gradients. Over the last 16,000 years, simulations driven by transient climate data from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and by a chironomid-based temperature reconstruction captured Late-glacial to Late Holocene transitions in forest communities. Overall, the reconstruction-driven vegetation simulations matched observed vegetation changes better than the AOGCM-driven simulations. This study also indicates that forest composition is very sensitive to snowpack-mediated changes in soil moisture. Simulations without the snow module showed a strong effect of snowpack on key bioclimatic variables and species composition at higher elevations. A projected upward shift of the snow line and a decrease in snowpack might lead to drastic changes in mountain forests composition and even a shift to dry meadows due to insufficient moisture availability in shallow alpine soils.