Simulating the temperature and precipitation signal in an Alpine ice core

Accumulation and delta O-18 data from Alpine ice cores provide information on past temperature and precipitation. However, their correlation with seasonal or annual mean temperature and precipitation at nearby sites is often low. This is partly due to the irregular sampling of the atmosphere by the ice core (i.e. ice cores almost only record precipitation events and not dry periods) and the possible incongruity between annual layers and calendar years. Using daily meteorological data from a nearby station and reanalyses, we replicate the ice core from the Grenzgletscher (Switzerland, 4200m a.s.l.) on a sample-by-sample basis by calculating precipitation-weighted temperature (PWT) over short intervals. Over the last 15 yr of the ice core record, accumulation and delta O-18 variations can be well reproduced on a sub-seasonal scale. This allows a wiggle-matching approach for defining quasi-annual layers, resulting in high correlations between measured quasi-annual delta O-18 and PWT. Further back in time, the agreement deteriorates. Nevertheless, we find significant correlations over the entire length of the record (1938-1993) of ice core delta O-18 with PWT, but not with annual mean temperature. This is due to the low correlations between PWT and annual mean temperature, a characteristic which in ERA-Interim reanalysis is also found for many other continental mid-to-high-latitude regions. The fact that meteorologically very different years can lead to similar combinations of PWT and accumulation poses limitations to the use of delta O-18 from Alpine ice cores for temperature reconstructions. Rather than for reconstructing annual mean temperature, delta O-18 from Alpine ice cores should be used to reconstruct PWT over quasi-annual periods. This variable is reproducible in reanalysis or climate model data and could thus be assimilated into conventional climate models.

Simulating Cortical Development as a Self Constructing Process: A Novel Multi-Scale Approach Combining Molecular and Physical Aspects

Current models of embryological development focus on intracellular processes such as gene expression and protein networks, rather than on the complex relationship between subcellular processes and the collective cellular organization these processes support. We have explored this collective behavior in the context of neocortical development, by modeling the expansion of a small number of progenitor cells into a laminated cortex with layer and cell type specific projections. The developmental process is steered by a formal language analogous to genomic instructions, and takes place in a physically realistic three-dimensional environment. A common genome inserted into individual cells control their individual behaviors, and thereby gives rise to collective developmental sequences in a biologically plausible manner. The simulation begins with a single progenitor cell containing the artificial genome. This progenitor then gives rise through a lineage of offspring to distinct populations of neuronal precursors that migrate to form the cortical laminae. The precursors differentiate by extending dendrites and axons, which reproduce the experimentally determined branching patterns of a number of different neuronal cell types observed in the cat visual cortex. This result is the first comprehensive demonstration of the principles of self-construction whereby the cortical architecture develops. In addition, our model makes several testable predictions concerning cell migration and branching mechanisms.

Search for supersymmetry in events with photons, bottom quarks, and missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search has been performed for the experimental signature of an isolated photon with high transverse momentum, at least one jet identified as originating from a bottom quark, and high missing transverse momentum. Such a final state may originate from supersymmetric models with gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking in events in which one of a pair of higgsino-like neutralinos decays into a photon and a gravitino while the other decays into a Higgs boson and a gravitino. The search is performed using the full dataset of 7 TeV proton-proton collisions recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in 2011, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb(-1). A total of 7 candidate events are observed while 7.5 +/- 2.2 events are expected from the Standard Model background. The results of the search are interpreted in the context of general gauge mediation to exclude certain regions of a benchmark plane for higgsino-like neutralino production.

Combining Bottom-up and Top-down Generation of Interactive Knowledge Maps for Enterprise Search

Our research project develops an intranet search engine with concept- browsing functionality, where the user is able to navigate the conceptual level in an interactive, automatically generated knowledge map. This knowledge map visualizes tacit, implicit knowledge, extracted from the intranet, as a network of semantic concepts. Inductive and deductive methods are combined; a text ana- lytics engine extracts knowledge structures from data inductively, and the en- terprise ontology provides a backbone structure to the process deductively. In addition to performing conventional keyword search, the user can browse the semantic network of concepts and associations to find documents and data rec- ords. Also, the user can expand and edit the knowledge network directly. As a vision, we propose a knowledge-management system that provides concept- browsing, based on a knowledge warehouse layer on top of a heterogeneous knowledge base with various systems interfaces. Such a concept browser will empower knowledge workers to interact with knowledge structures.

Towards quantum simulating QCD

Quantum link models provide an alternative non-perturbative formulation of Abelian and non-Abelian lattice gauge theories. They are ideally suited for quantum simulation, for example, using ultracold atoms in an optical lattice. This holds the promise to address currently unsolvable problems, such as the real-time and high-density dynamics of strongly interacting matter, first in toy-model gauge theories, and ultimately in QCD.

gems: An R Package for Simulating from Disease Progression Models

Mathematical models of disease progression predict disease outcomes and are useful epidemiological tools for planners and evaluators of health interventions. The R package gems is a tool that simulates disease progression in patients and predicts the effect of different interventions on patient outcome. Disease progression is represented by a series of events (e.g., diagnosis, treatment and death), displayed in a directed acyclic graph. The vertices correspond to disease states and the directed edges represent events. The package gems allows simulations based on a generalized multistate model that can be described by a directed acyclic graph with continuous transition-specific hazard functions. The user can specify an arbitrary hazard function and its parameters. The model includes parameter uncertainty, does not need to be a Markov model, and may take the history of previous events into account. Applications are not limited to the medical field and extend to other areas where multistate simulation is of interest. We provide a technical explanation of the multistate models used by gems, explain the functions of gems and their arguments, and show a sample application.

Simulating Carbon Stocks and Fluxes of an African Tropical Montane Forest with an Individual-Based Forest Model

Tropical forests are carbon-dense and highly productive ecosystems. Consequently, they play an important role in the global carbon cycle. In the present study we used an individual-based forest model (FORMIND) to analyze the carbon balances of a tropical forest. The main processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration, and competition. Model parameters were calibrated using forest inventory data from a tropical forest at Mt. Kilimanjaro. The simulation results showed that the model successfully reproduces important characteristics of tropical forests (aboveground biomass, stem size distribution and leaf area index). The estimated aboveground biomass (385 t/ha) is comparable to biomass values in the Amazon and other tropical forests in Africa. The simulated forest reveals a gross primary production of 24 tcha-1yr-1. Modeling above- and belowground carbon stocks, we analyzed the carbon balance of the investigated tropical forest. The simulated carbon balance of this old-growth forest is zero on average. This study provides an example of how forest models can be used in combination with forest inventory data to investigate forest structure and local carbon balances.

Drilling into debris-rich basal ice at the bottom of the NEEM (Greenland) borehole

After the NEEM (Greenland) deep ice-core drilling was declared terminated with respect to developing stratigraphic climate reconstructions, efforts were turned toward collecting basal ice-sheet debris and, if possible, drilling into the bedrock itself. In 2010, several meters of banded debris-rich ice were obtained under normal ice-drilling operations with the NEEM version of the Hans Tausen (HT) drill, but further penetration was obstructed by a rock in the path of the drill head at 2537.36 m. During short campaigns in 2011 and 2012, attempts were made to penetrate further using various reinforced ice cutters mounted on the HT drill head, tailored to cut through rock. These had some success in penetrating coarse material, but produced severely damaged cutters. Additionally a 51 mm diameter diamond cutting tipped rock drill was adapted to fit the NEEM drill. With this device, several additional meters of core containing subglacial sediments, rocks and rock fragments were collected. With these tools 1.39 m of additional material were obtained during the 2011 field season, and 7.1 m during 2012. Subglacial water refreezing into the newly formed borehole hindered further penetration, and the bedrock interface was not reached before final closure of the NEEM Camp.

The bottom-quark mass from non-relativistic sum rules at NNNLO

We determine the mass of the bottom quark from high moments of the bbproduction cross section in e+e−annihilation, which are dominated by the threshold region. On the theory side next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order (NNNLO) calculations both for the resonances and the continuum cross section are used for the first time. We find mPSb(2GeV) =4.532+0.013−0.039GeVfor the potential-subtracted mass and mMSb(mMSb) =4.193+0.022−0.035GeVfor the MSbottom-quark mass.