Relating in situ gas measurements to the surface outgassing properties of cometary nuclei

The sensitivity of the gas flow field to changes in different initial conditions has been studied for the case of a highly simplified cometary nucleus model. The nucleus model simulated a homogeneously outgassing sphere with a more active ring around an axis of symmetry. The varied initial conditions were the number density of the homogeneous region, the surface temperature, and the composition of the flow (varying amounts of H2O and CO2) from the active ring. The sensitivity analysis was performed using the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) method. Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) was used for the flow, thereby allowing strong deviations from local thermal equilibrium. The PCE approach can be used to produce a sensitivity analysis with only four runs per modified input parameter and allows one to study and quantify non-linear responses of measurable parameters to linear changes in the input over a wide range. Hence the PCE allows one to obtain a functional relationship between the flow field properties at every point in the inner coma and the input conditions. It is for example shown that the velocity and the temperature of the background gas are not simply linear functions of the initial number density at the source. As probably expected, the main influence on the resulting flow field parameter is the corresponding initial parameter (i.e. the initial number density determines the background number density, the temperature of the surface determines the flow field temperature, etc.). However, the velocity of the flow field is also influenced by the surface temperature while the number density is not sensitive to the surface temperature at all in our model set-up. Another example is the change in the composition of the flow over the active area. Such changes can be seen in the velocity but again not in the number density. Although this study uses only a simple test case, we suggest that the approach, when applied to a real case in 3D, should assist in identifying the sensitivity of gas parameters measured in situ by, for example, the Rosetta spacecraft to the surface boundary conditions and vice versa.

Saddlepoint Approximations to the Probability of Ruin in Finite Time for the Compound Poisson Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

A new measure for party coherence: Applying a physics-based concept to the Swiss party system

The paper revives a theoretical definition of party coherence as being composed of two basic elements, cohesion and factionalism, to propose and apply a novel empirical measure based on spin physics. The simultaneous analysis of both components using a single measurement concept is applied to data representing the political beliefs of candidates in the Swiss general elections of 2003 and 2007, proposing a connection between the coherence of the beliefs party members hold and the assessment of parties being at risk of splitting. We also compare our measure with established polarization measures and demonstrate its advantage with respect to multi-dimensional data that lack clear structure. Furthermore, we outline how our analysis supports the distinction between bottom-up and top-down mechanisms of party splitting. In this way, we are able to turn the intuition of coherence into a defined quantitative concept that, additionally, offers a methodological basis for comparative research of party coherence. Our work serves as an example of how a complex systems approach allows to get a new perspective on a long-standing issue in political science.

Introduction to the Maïdo Lidar Calibration Campaign dedicated to the validation of upper air meteorological parameters

The first operations at the new High-altitude Maïdo Observatory at La Réunion began in 2013. The Maïdo Lidar Calibration Campaign (MALICCA) was organized there in April 2013 and has focused on the validation of the thermodynamic parameters (temperature, water vapor, and wind) measured with many instruments including the new very large lidar for water vapor and temperature profiles. The aim of this publication consists of providing an overview of the different instruments deployed during this campaign and their status, some of the targeted scientific questions and associated instrumental issues. Some specific detailed studies for some individual techniques were addressed elsewhere. This study shows that temperature profiles were obtained from the ground to the mesopause (80 km) thanks to the lidar and regular meteorological balloon-borne sondes with an overlap range showing good agreement. Water vapor is also monitored from the ground to the mesopause by using the Raman lidar and microwave techniques. Both techniques need to be pushed to their limit to reduce the missing range in the lower stratosphere. Total columns obtained from global positioning system or spectrometers are valuable for checking the calibration and ensuring vertical continuity. The lidar can also provide the vertical cloud structure that is a valuable complementary piece of information when investigating the water vapor cycle. Finally, wind vertical profiles, which were obtained from sondes, are now also retrieved at Maïdo from the newly implemented microwave technique and the lidar. Stable calibrations as well as a small-scale dynamical structure are required to monitor the thermodynamic state of the middle atmosphere, ensure validation of satellite sensors, study the transport of water vapor in the vicinity of the tropical tropopause and study their link with cirrus clouds and cyclones and the impact of small-scale dynamics (gravity waves) and their link with the mean state of the mesosphere.

On an Application of Microsoft Excel’s Evolutionary Solver to the Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem RCPSP

The Solver Add-in of Microsoft Excel is widely used in courses on Operations Research and in industrial applications. Since the 2010 version of Microsoft Excel, the Solver Add-in comprises a so-called evolutionary solver. We analyze how this metaheuristic can be applied to the resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP). We present an implementation of a schedule-generation scheme in a spreadsheet, which combined with the evolutionary solver can be used for devising good feasible schedules. Our computational results indicate that using this approach, non-trivial instances of the RCPSP can be (approximately) solved to optimality.

Patient outcomes after laminotomy, hemilaminectomy, laminectomy and laminectomy with instrumented fusion for spinal canal stenosis: a propensity score-based study from the Spine Tango registry.

PURPOSE To compare patient outcomes and complication rates after different decompression techniques or instrumented fusion (IF) in lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). METHODS The multicentre study was based on Spine Tango data. Inclusion criteria were LSS with a posterior decompression and pre- and postoperative COMI assessment between 3 and 24 months. 1,176 cases were assigned to four groups: (1) laminotomy (n = 642), (2) hemilaminectomy (n = 196), (3) laminectomy (n = 230) and (4) laminectomy combined with an IF (n = 108). Clinical outcomes were achievement of minimum relevant change in COMI back and leg pain and COMI score (2.2 points), surgical and general complications, measures taken due to complications, and reintervention on the index level based on patient information. The inverse propensity score weighting method was used for adjustment. RESULTS Laminotomy, hemilaminectomy and laminectomy were significantly less beneficial than laminectomy in combination with IF regarding leg pain (ORs with 95% CI 0.52, 0.34-0.81; 0.25, 0.15-0.41; 0.44, 0.27-0.72, respectively) and COMI score improvement (ORs with 95% CI 0.51, 0.33-0.81; 0.30, 0.18-0.51; 0.48, 0.29-0.79, respectively). However, the sole decompressions caused significantly fewer surgical (ORs with 95% CI 0.42, 0.26-0.69; 0.33, 0.17-0.63; 0.39, 0.21-0.71, respectively) and general complications (ORs with 95% CI 0.11, 0.04-0.29; 0.03, 0.003-0.41; 0.25, 0.09-0.71, respectively) than laminectomy in combination with IF. Accordingly, the likelihood of required measures was also significantly lower after laminotomy (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.17-0.46), hemilaminectomy (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.15-0.53) and after laminectomy (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.22-0.68) in comparison with laminectomy with IF. The likelihood of a reintervention was not significantly different between the treatment groups. DISCUSSION As already demonstrated in the literature, decompression in patients with LSS is a very effective treatment. Despite better patient outcomes after laminectomy in combination with IF, caution is advised due to higher rates of surgical and general complications and consequent required measures. Based on the current study, laminotomy or laminectomy, rather than hemilaminectomy, is recommendable for minimum relevant pain relief.