Predictive modelling of mineral scaling, corrosion and the performance of solute geothermometers in a granitoid-hosted, enhanced geothermal system

Experience is lacking with mineral scaling and corrosion in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) in which surface water is circulated through hydraulically stimulated crystalline rocks. As an aid in designing EGS projects we have conducted multicomponent reactive-transport simulations to predict the likely characteristics of scales and corrosion that may form when exploiting heat from granitoid reservoir rocks at ∼200 °C and 5 km depth. The specifications of an EGS project at Basel, Switzerland, are used to constrain the model. The main water–rock reactions in the reservoir during hydraulic stimulation and the subsequent doublet operation were identified in a separate paper (Alt-Epping et al., 2013b). Here we use the computed composition of the reservoir fluid to (1) predict mineral scaling in the injection and production wells, (2) evaluate methods of chemical geothermometry and (3) identify geochemical indicators of incipient corrosion. The envisaged heat extraction scheme ensures that even if the reservoir fluid is in equilibrium with quartz, cooling of the fluid will not induce saturation with respect to amorphous silica, thus eliminating the risk of silica scaling. However, the ascending fluid attains saturation with respect to crystalline aluminosilicates such as albite, microcline and chlorite, and possibly with respect to amorphous aluminosilicates. If no silica-bearing minerals precipitate upon ascent, reservoir temperatures can be predicted by classical formulations of silica geothermometry. In contrast, Na/K concentration ratios in the production fluid reflect steady-state conditions in the reservoir rather than albite–microcline equilibrium. Thus, even though igneous orthoclase is abundant in the reservoir and albite precipitates as a secondary phase, Na/K geothermometers fail to yield accurate temperatures. Anhydrite, which is present in fractures in the Basel reservoir, is predicted to dissolve during operation. This may lead to precipitation of pyrite and, at high exposure of anhydrite to the circulating fluid, of hematite scaling in the geothermal installation. In general, incipient corrosion of the casing can be detected at the production wellhead through an increase in H2(aq) and the enhanced precipitation of Fe-bearing aluminosilicates. The appearance of magnetite in scales indicates high corrosion rates.

PDB-Explorer: a web-based interactive map of the protein data bank in shape space

Background The RCSB Protein Data Bank (PDB) provides public access to experimentally determined 3D-structures of biological macromolecules (proteins, peptides and nucleic acids). While various tools are available to explore the PDB, options to access the global structural diversity of the entire PDB and to perceive relationships between PDB structures remain very limited. Methods A 136-dimensional atom pair 3D-fingerprint for proteins (3DP) counting categorized atom pairs at increasing through-space distances was designed to represent the molecular shape of PDB-entries. Nearest neighbor searches examples were reported exemplifying the ability of 3DP-similarity to identify closely related biomolecules from small peptides to enzyme and large multiprotein complexes such as virus particles. The principle component analysis was used to obtain the visualization of PDB in 3DP-space. Results The 3DP property space groups proteins and protein assemblies according to their 3D-shape similarity, yet shows exquisite ability to distinguish between closely related structures. An interactive website called PDB-Explorer is presented featuring a color-coded interactive map of PDB in 3DP-space. Each pixel of the map contains one or more PDB-entries which are directly visualized as ribbon diagrams when the pixel is selected. The PDB-Explorer website allows performing 3DP-nearest neighbor searches of any PDB-entry or of any structure uploaded as protein-type PDB file. All functionalities on the website are implemented in JavaScript in a platform-independent manner and draw data from a server that is updated daily with the latest PDB additions, ensuring complete and up-to-date coverage. The essentially instantaneous 3DP-similarity search with the PDB-Explorer provides results comparable to those of much slower 3D-alignment algorithms, and automatically clusters proteins from the same superfamilies in tight groups. Conclusion A chemical space classification of PDB based on molecular shape was obtained using a new atom-pair 3D-fingerprint for proteins and implemented in a web-based database exploration tool comprising an interactive color-coded map of the PDB chemical space and a nearest neighbor search tool. The PDB-Explorer website is freely available at www.​cheminfo.​org/​pdbexplorer and represents an unprecedented opportunity to interactively visualize and explore the structural diversity of the PDB.

Medical educators: How they define themselves - Results of an international web survey.

BACKGROUND Little is known about medical educators' self-definition. AIMS The aim of this study is to survey an international community of medical educators focusing on the medical educators' self-definition. METHODS Within a comprehensive, web-based survey, an open question on the participants' views of how they would define a "medical educator" was sent to 2200 persons on the mailing list of the Association for Medical Education in Europe. The free text definitions were analysed using qualitative thematic analysis. RESULTS Of the, 200 medical educators invited to participate, 685 (31.1%) provided a definition of a "medical educator". The qualitative analysis of the free text definitions revealed that medical educators defined themselves in 13 roles, primarily as "Professional Expert", "Facilitator", "Information Provider", "Enthusiast", "Faculty Developer", "Mentor", "Undergraduate and Postgraduate Trainer", "Curriculum Developer", "Assessor and Assessment Creator", and "Researcher". CONCLUSIONS Our survey revealed that medical educators predominantly define themselves as "Professional Experts" and identified 12 further self-defined roles of a medical educator, several of which not to have been reported previously. The results can be used to further the understanding of our professional identity.

Improving Pediatric Basic Life Support Performance Through Blended Learning With Web-Based Virtual Patients: Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND E-learning and blended learning approaches gain more and more popularity in emergency medicine curricula. So far, little data is available on the impact of such approaches on procedural learning and skill acquisition and their comparison with traditional approaches. OBJECTIVE This study investigated the impact of a blended learning approach, including Web-based virtual patients (VPs) and standard pediatric basic life support (PBLS) training, on procedural knowledge, objective performance, and self-assessment. METHODS A total of 57 medical students were randomly assigned to an intervention group (n=30) and a control group (n=27). Both groups received paper handouts in preparation of simulation-based PBLS training. The intervention group additionally completed two Web-based VPs with embedded video clips. Measurements were taken at randomization (t0), after the preparation period (t1), and after hands-on training (t2). Clinical decision-making skills and procedural knowledge were assessed at t0 and t1. PBLS performance was scored regarding adherence to the correct algorithm, conformance to temporal demands, and the quality of procedural steps at t1 and t2. Participants' self-assessments were recorded in all three measurements. RESULTS Procedural knowledge of the intervention group was significantly superior to that of the control group at t1. At t2, the intervention group showed significantly better adherence to the algorithm and temporal demands, and better procedural quality of PBLS in objective measures than did the control group. These aspects differed between the groups even at t1 (after VPs, prior to practical training). Self-assessments differed significantly only at t1 in favor of the intervention group. CONCLUSIONS Training with VPs combined with hands-on training improves PBLS performance as judged by objective measures.

Computational fluid dynamics modelling in cardiovascular medicine.

This paper reviews the methods, benefits and challenges associated with the adoption and translation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling within cardiovascular medicine. CFD, a specialist area of mathematics and a branch of fluid mechanics, is used routinely in a diverse range of safety-critical engineering systems, which increasingly is being applied to the cardiovascular system. By facilitating rapid, economical, low-risk prototyping, CFD modelling has already revolutionised research and development of devices such as stents, valve prostheses, and ventricular assist devices. Combined with cardiovascular imaging, CFD simulation enables detailed characterisation of complex physiological pressure and flow fields and the computation of metrics which cannot be directly measured, for example, wall shear stress. CFD models are now being translated into clinical tools for physicians to use across the spectrum of coronary, valvular, congenital, myocardial and peripheral vascular diseases. CFD modelling is apposite for minimally-invasive patient assessment. Patient-specific (incorporating data unique to the individual) and multi-scale (combining models of different length- and time-scales) modelling enables individualised risk prediction and virtual treatment planning. This represents a significant departure from traditional dependence upon registry-based, population-averaged data. Model integration is progressively moving towards 'digital patient' or 'virtual physiological human' representations. When combined with population-scale numerical models, these models have the potential to reduce the cost, time and risk associated with clinical trials. The adoption of CFD modelling signals a new era in cardiovascular medicine. While potentially highly beneficial, a number of academic and commercial groups are addressing the associated methodological, regulatory, education- and service-related challenges.

Does the use of mobile devices (tablets and smartphones) affect survey quality and choice behaviour in web surveys?

Web surveys are becoming increasingly popular in survey research including stated preference surveys. Compared with face-to-face, telephone and mail surveys, web surveys may contain a different and new source of measurement error and bias: the type of device that respondents use to answer the survey questions. This is the first study that tests whether the use of mobile devices, tablets or smartphones, affects survey characteristics and stated preferences in a web-based choice experiment. The web survey on expanding renewable energy production in Germany was carried out with 3182 respondents, of which 12% used a mobile device. Propensity score matching is used to account for selection bias in the use of mobile devices for survey completion. We find that mobile device users spent more time than desktop/laptop users to answer the survey. Yet, desktop/laptop users and mobile device users do not differ in acquiescence tendency as an indicator of extreme response patterns. For mobile device users only, we find a negative correlation between screen size and interview length and a positive correlation between screen size and acquiescence tendency. In the choice experiment data, we do not find significant differences in the tendency to choose the status quo option and scale between both subsamples. However, some of the estimates of implicit prices differ, albeit not in a unidirectional fashion. Model results for mobile device users indicate a U-shaped relationship between error variance and screen size. Together, the results suggest that using mobile devices is not detrimental to survey quality.

Modelling the impact of deferring HCV treatment on liver-related complications in HIV coinfected men who have sex with men

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Hepatitis C (HCV) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in people who live with HIV. In many countries, access to direct acting antiviral agents to treat HCV is restricted to individuals with advanced liver disease (METAVIR stage F3 or F4). Our goal was to estimate the long term impact of deferring HCV treatment for men who have sex with men (MSM) who are coinfected with HIV and often have multiple risk factors for liver disease progression. METHODS We developed an individual-based model of liver disease progression in HIV/HCV coinfected men who have sex with men. We estimated liver-related morbidity and mortality as well as the median time spent with replicating HCV infection when individuals were treated in liver fibrosis stages F0, F1, F2, F3 or F4 on the METAVIR scale. RESULTS The percentage of individuals who died of liver-related complications was 2% if treatment was initiated in F0 or F1. It increased to 3% if treatment was deferred until F2, 7% if it was deferred until F3 and 22% if deferred until F4. The median time individuals spent with replicating HCV increased from 5 years if treatment was initiated in F2 to almost 15 years if it was deferred until F4. CONCLUSIONS Deferring HCV therapy until advanced liver fibrosis is established could increase liver-related morbidity and mortality in HIV/HCV coinfected individuals, and substantially prolong the time individuals spend with replicating HCV infection.

The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND The number of patients in need of second-line antiretroviral drugs is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to project the need of second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030. METHODS We developed a simulation model for HIV and applied it to each sub-Saharan African country. We used the WHO country intelligence database to estimate the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy from 2005 to 2014. We fitted the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy to observed estimates, and predicted first-line and second-line needs between 2015 and 2030. We present results for sub-Saharan Africa, and eight selected countries. We present 18 scenarios, combining the availability of viral load monitoring, speed of antiretroviral scale-up, and rates of retention and switching to second-line. HIV transmission was not included. FINDINGS Depending on the scenario, 8·7-25·6 million people are expected to receive antiretroviral therapy in 2020, of whom 0·5-3·0 million will be receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy. The proportion of patients on treatment receiving second-line therapy was highest (15·6%) in the scenario with perfect retention and immediate switching, no further scale-up, and universal routine viral load monitoring. In 2030, the estimated range of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy will remain constant, but the number of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy will increase to 0·8-4·6 million (6·6-19·6%). The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy was two to three times higher if routine viral load monitoring was implemented throughout the region, compared with a scenario of no further viral load monitoring scale-up. For each monitoring strategy, the future proportion of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy differed only minimally between countries. INTERPRETATION Donors and countries in sub-Saharan Africa should prepare for a substantial increase in the need for second-line drugs during the next few years as access to viral load monitoring improves. An urgent need exists to decrease the costs of second-line drugs. FUNDING World Health Organization, Swiss National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health.