A 350 ka record of climate change from Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic: refining the pattern of climate modes by means of cluster analysis

Abstract. Rock magnetic, biochemical and inorganic records of the sediment cores PG1351 and Lz1024 from Lake El’gygytgyn, Chukotka peninsula, Far East Russian Arctic, were subject to a hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis in order to refine and extend the pattern of climate modes as defined by Melles et al. (2007). Cluster analysis of the data obtained from both cores yielded similar results, differentiating clearly between the four climate modes warm, peak warm, cold and dry, and cold and moist. In addition, two transitional phases were identified, representing the early stages of a cold phase and slightly colder conditions during a warm phase. The statistical approach can thus be used to resolve gradual changes in the sedimentary units as an indicator of available oxygen in the hypolimnion in greater detail. Based upon cluster analyses on core Lz1024, the published succession of climate modes in core PG1351, covering the last 250 ka, was modified and extended back to 350 ka. Comparison to the marine oxygen isotope (�18O) stack LR04 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) and the summer insolation at 67.5� N, with the extended Lake El’gygytgyn parameter records of magnetic susceptibility (�LF), total organic carbon content (TOC) and the chemical index of alteration (CIA; Minyuk et al., 2007), revealed that all stages back to marine isotope stage (MIS) 10 and most of the substages are clearly reflected in the pattern derived from the cluster analysis.

Warm Conveyor Belts in the ERA-Interim Dataset (1979–2010): Part I: Climatology and Potential Vorticity Evolution

A global climatology of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) is presented for the years 1979–2010, based on trajectories calculated with Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. WCB trajectories are identified as strongly ascending air parcels (600 hPa in 2 days) near extratropical cyclones. Corroborating earlier studies, WCBs are more frequent during winter than summer and they ascend preferentially in the western ocean basins between 25° and 50° latitude. Before ascending, WCB trajectories typically approach from the subtropics in summer and from more midlatitude regions in winter. Considering humidity, cloud water, and potential temperature along WCBs confirms that they experience strong condensation and integrated latent heating during the ascent (typically >20 K). Liquid and ice water contents along WCBs peak at about 700 and 550 hPa, respectively. The mean potential vorticity (PV) evolution shows typical tropospheric values near 900 hPa, followed by an increase to almost 1 potential vorticity unit (PVU) at 700 hPa, and a decrease to less than 0.5 PVU at 300 hPa. These low PV values in the upper troposphere constitute significant negative anomalies with amplitudes of 1–3 PVU, which can strongly influence the downstream flow. Considering the low-level diabatic PV production, (i) WCBs starting at low latitudes (<40°) are unlikely to attain high PV (due to weak planetary vorticity) although they exhibit the strongest latent heating, and (ii) for those ascending at higher latitudes, a strong vertical heating gradient and high absolute vorticity are both important. This study therefore provides climatological insight into the cloud diabatic formation of significant positive and negative PV anomalies in the extratropical lower and upper troposphere, respectively.

Swiss tree rings reveal warm and wet summers during medieval times

We present a 1200 year drought reconstruction for the European Alpine region based on carbon isotope variations of tree rings from living larch trees and historic timber. The carbon isotope fractionation at the study site is sensitive to summer precipitation, temperature, and irradiance, resulting in a stable and high correlation with a drought index for interannual to decadal frequencies and possibly beyond (r(2)=0.58 for 1901-2004, July/August). When combining this information with maximum latewood density-derived summer temperature, a strongly reduced occurrence of summer droughts during the warm A.D. 900-1200 period is evident, coinciding with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), with a shift to colder and drier conditions for the subsequent centuries. The warm-wet MCA contrasts strongly with the climate of the drought-prone warm phase of the recent decades, indicating different forcing mechanism for these two warm periods and pointing to beneficial conditions for agriculture and human well-being during the MCA in this region.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

On monthly weather anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in winter

This paper is the edited translation of a short paper by Felix Exner “Über monatliche Witterungsanomalien auf der nördlichen Halbkugel im Winter” (On monthly weather anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in winter), which was published in Meteorologische Zeitschrift 31, 104–109. The paper is a summary of a more extensive paper by the same author published in full in the Sitzungsberichte der Kaiserlichen Akademie der Wissenschaften.

Efficacy of mechanical postconditioning following warm, global ischaemia depends on circulating fatty acid levels in an isolated, working rat heart model†

OBJECTIVES The number of heart transplantations is limited by donor organ availability. Donation after circulatory determination of death (DCDD) could significantly improve graft availability; however, organs undergo warm ischaemia followed by reperfusion, leading to tissue damage. Laboratory studies suggest that mechanical postconditioning [(MPC); brief, intermittent periods of ischaemia at the onset of reperfusion] can limit reperfusion injury; however, clinical translation has been disappointing. We hypothesized that MPC-induced cardioprotection depends on fatty acid levels at reperfusion. METHODS Experiments were performed with an isolated rat heart model of DCDD. Hearts of male Wistar rats (n = 42) underwent working-mode perfusion for 20 min (baseline), 27 min of global ischaemia and 60 min reperfusion with or without MPC (two cycles of 30 s reperfusion/30 s ischaemia) in the presence or absence of high fat [(HF); 1.2 mM palmitate]. Haemodynamic parameters, necrosis factors and oxygen consumption (O2C) were assessed. Recovery rate was calculated as the value at 60 min reperfusion expressed as a percentage of the mean baseline value. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to provide an overview of differences between experimental groups, and pairwise comparisons were performed to compare specific time points of interest for parameters with significant overall results. RESULTS Percent recovery of left ventricular (LV) work [developed pressure (DP)-heart rate product] at 60 min reperfusion was higher in hearts reperfused without fat versus with fat (58 ± 8 vs 23 ± 26%, P < 0.01) in the absence of MPC. In the absence of fat, MPC did not affect post-ischaemic haemodynamic recovery. Among the hearts reperfused with HF, two significantly different subgroups emerged according to recovery of LV work: low recovery (LoR) and high recovery (HiR) subgroups. At 60 min reperfusion, recovery was increased with MPC versus no MPC for LV work (79 ± 6 vs 55 ± 7, respectively; P < 0.05) in HiR subgroups and for DP (40 ± 27 vs 4 ± 2%), dP/dtmax (37 ± 24 vs 5 ± 3%) and dP/dtmin (33 ± 21 vs 5 ± 4%; P < 0.01 for all) in LoR subgroups. CONCLUSIONS Effects of MPC depend on energy substrate availability; MPC increased recovery of LV work in the presence, but not in the absence, of HF. Controlled reperfusion may be useful for therapeutic strategies aimed at improving post-ischaemic recovery of cardiac DCDD grafts, and ultimately in increasing donor heart availability.

Warm Breze from the Starboard Bow: a new Population of neutral Helium in the Heliosphere

We investigate the signals from neutral helium atoms observed in situ from Earth orbit in 2010 by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX). The full helium signal observed during the 2010 observation season can be explained as a superposition of pristine neutral interstellar He gas and an additional population of neutral helium that we call the Warm Breeze. The Warm Breeze is approximately 2 times slower and 2.5 times warmer than the primary interstellar He population, and its density in front of the heliosphere is ~7% that of the neutral interstellar helium. The inflow direction of the Warm Breeze differs by ~19° from the inflow direction of interstellar gas. The Warm Breeze seems to be a long-term, perhaps permanent feature of the heliospheric environment. It has not been detected earlier because it is strongly ionized inside the heliosphere. This effect brings it below the threshold of detection via pickup ion and heliospheric backscatter glow observations, as well as by the direct sampling of GAS/Ulysses. We discuss possible sources for the Warm Breeze, including (1) the secondary population of interstellar helium, created via charge exchange and perhaps elastic scattering of neutral interstellar He atoms on interstellar He+ ions in the outer heliosheath, or (2) a gust of interstellar He originating from a hypothetic wave train in the Local Interstellar Cloud. A secondary population is expected from models, but the characteristics of the Warm Breeze do not fully conform to modeling results. If, nevertheless, this is the explanation, IBEX-Lo observations of the Warm Breeze provide key insights into the physical state of plasma in the outer heliosheath. If the second hypothesis is true, the source is likely to be located within a few thousand AU from the Sun, which is the propagation range of possible gusts of interstellar neutral helium with the Warm Breeze characteristics against dissipation via elastic scattering in the Local Cloud. Whatever the nature of the Warm Breeze, its discovery exposes a critical new feature of our heliospheric environment.

The Efficacy of a Novel Microbial 6-Phytase Expressed in Aspergillus oryzae on the Performance and Phosphorus Utilization of Cold- and Warm-Water Fish: Rainbow Trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss , and Nile Tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus

The efficacy and tolerance of a novel microbial 6-phytase were investigated in rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, and Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus. Reference diets were sufficient in available phosphorus (P). The test diet limiting in available P was supplemented with phytase at 500, 1000, or 2000 phytase units/kg feed. The enzyme was effective in increasing total P apparent digestibility coefficient in relation to increasing the dose of phytase in rainbow trout and Nile tilapia. Zinc apparent digestibility improved in relation to phytase supplementation in rainbow trout. P release due to phytase supplementation ranged from 0.06 to 0.18% P/kg feed in rainbow trout and from 0.13 to 0.26% P/kg feed in Nile tilapia. A 58-d performance trial was conducted to evaluate tolerance of fish to phytase supplementation. Dietary treatments consisted of a basal diet without phytase or supplemented with 2000 and 200,000 phytase units/kg feed. Results indicate that this novel microbial 6-phytase is well tolerated by fish. Significant improvements for growth as well as feed conversion ratio were observed when the phytase was fed at 2000 phytase units/kg feed. This phytase is proven efficient in releasing P from phytate and could be added when plants are used for fish meal replacement in diets for salmonid and omnivorous fish.