47 resultados para Univariate Analysis box-jenkins methodology


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BACKGROUND Recently, histopathological tumour regression, prevalence of signet ring cells, and localisation were reported as prognostic factors in neoadjuvantly treated oesophagogastric (junctional and gastric) cancer. This exploratory retrospective study analyses independent prognostic factors within a large patient cohort after preoperative chemotherapy including clinical and histopathological factors. METHODS In all, 850 patients presenting with oesophagogastric cancer staged cT3/4 Nany cM0/x were treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by resection in two academic centres. Patient data were documented in a prospective database and retrospectively analysed. RESULTS Of all factors prognostic on univariate analysis, only clinical response, complications, ypTNM stage, and R category were independently prognostic (P<0.01) on multivariate analysis. Tumour localisation and signet ring cells were independently prognostic only when investigator-dependent clinical response evaluation was excluded from the multivariate model. Histopathological tumour regression correlates with tumour grading, Laurén classification, clinical response, ypT, ypN, and R categories but was not identified as an independent prognostic factor. Within R0-resected patients only surgical complications and ypTNM stage were independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSIONS Only established prognostic factors like ypTNM stage, R category, and complications were identified as independent prognostic factors in resected patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. In contrast, histopathological tumour regression was not found as an independent prognostic marker.

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PURPOSE This study aimed to examine the work-related impact of open hand injuries, specifically, the amount of lost work days subsequent to the injury and factors associated with work-related rehabilitation. PATIENTS AND METHODS We retrospectivley included consecutive patients with acute hand injuries who were operated between 2008 and 2009 in the Division of Hand Surgery (n=435) at the Department of Orthopaedic, Plastic and Hand Surgery. Information was obtained from the medical records and via a self-reported questionnaire sent out in 2011. Patients younger than 18 or older than 65 years, as well as the unemployed were excluded from the study. Descriptive group analysis was used to establish statistical relationships between time off work (TOW) and possible influencing variables. Multiple linear regression was applied to analyse the impact of injury, personal and/or work-related factors on TOW. RESULTS The sample included 290 patients with a mean age of 38.9 (SD 13.2) years of whom 98.6% returned to work after a median absence of 45.5 days. Univariate analysis demonstrated an association of length of absence from work with socio-demographic, clinical and work-related factors. Multiple regression analysis indicated that the location of injury, the number of injured regions, the need for secondary surgery, age, and the type of occupation were independently associated with TOW. CONCLUSION Most factors associated with TOW after traumatic hand injuries could not be influenced. Possible interventions should probably target improved injury prevention, optimal clinical treatment and rehabilitation starting early after injury. Whether improvements in communication and enhancement of cooperation between the treatment teams, the workplace and the insurance carrier may support a staged and earlier return to work remains to be investigated.

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BACKGROUND While multi-drug resistant organisms (MDRO) are a global phenomenon, there are significant regional differences in terms of prevalence. Traveling to countries with a high MDRO prevalence increases the risk of acquiring such an organism. In this study we determined risk factors for MDRO colonization among patients who returned from a healthcare system in a high-prevalence area (so-called transfer patients). Factors predicting colonization could serve as screening criteria to better target those at highest risk. METHODS This screening study included adult patients who had been exposed to a healthcare system abroad or in a high-prevalence region in Switzerland over the past six months and presented to our 950-bed tertiary care hospital between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2013, a 24-month period. Laboratory screening tests focused on Gram-negative MDROs and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). RESULTS A total of 235 transfer patients were screened and analyzed, of which 43 (18 %) were positive for an MDRO. Most of them yielded Gram-negative bacteria (42; 98 %), with only a single screening revealing MRSA (2 %); three screenings showed a combination of Gram-negative bacteria and MRSA. For the risk factor analysis we focused on the 42 Gram-negative MDROs. Most of them were ESBL-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae while only two were carbapenemase producers. In univariate analysis, factors associated with screening positivity were hospitalization outside of Europe (p < 0.001), surgical procedure in a hospital abroad (p = 0.007), and - on admission to our hospital - active infection (p = 0.002), antibiotic treatment (p = 0.014) and presence of skin lesions (p = 0.001). Only hospitalization outside of Europe (Odds Ratio, OR 3.2 (95 % CI 1.5- 6.8)) and active infection on admission (OR 2.7 (95 % CI 1.07- 6.6)) remained as independent predictors of Gram-negative MDRO colonization. CONCLUSION Our data suggest that a large proportion of patients (i.e., 82 %) transferred to Switzerland from hospitals in high MDRO prevalence areas are unnecessarily screened for MDRO colonization. Basing our screening strategy on certain criteria (such as presence of skin lesions, active infection, antibiotic treatment, history of a surgical procedure abroad and hospitalization outside of Europe) promises to be a better targeted and more cost-effective strategy.

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BACKGROUND Parameningeal rhabdomyosarcomas (PM-RMSs) represent approximately 25% of all rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) cases. These tumors are associated with early recurrence and poor prognosis. This study assessed the clinical outcome and late toxicity of pencil beam scanning (PBS) proton therapy (PT) in the treatment of children with PM-RMS. PROCEDURES Thirty-nine children with PM-RMS received neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by PBS-PT at the Paul Scherrer Institute, with concomitant chemotherapy. The median age was 5.8 years (range, 1.2-16.1). Due to young age, 25 patients (64%) required general anesthesia during PT. The median time from the start of chemotherapy to PT was 13 weeks (range, 3-23 weeks). Median prescription dose was 54 Gy (relative biologic effectiveness, RBE). RESULTS With a mean follow-up of 41 months (range, 9-106 months), 10 patients failed. The actuarial 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 72% (95% CI, 67-94%) and the 5-year overall survival was 73% (95% CI, 69-96%). On univariate analysis, a delay in the initiation of PT (>13 weeks) was a significant detrimental factor for PFS. Three (8%) patients presented with grade 3 radiation-induced toxicity. The estimated actuarial 5-year toxicity ≥grade 3 free survival was 95% (95% CI, 94-96%). CONCLUSIONS Our data contribute to the growing body of evidence demonstrating the safety and effectiveness of PT for pediatric patients with PM-RMS. These preliminary results are encouraging and in line with other combined proton-photon and photons series; observed toxicity was acceptable.

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BACKGROUND Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is associated with an increased risk of cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), the major limiting factor for long-term survival after heart transplantation (HTx). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of CMV infection during long-term follow-up after HTx. METHODS A retrospective, single-centre study analyzed 226 HTx recipients (mean age 45 ± 13 years, 78 % men) who underwent transplantation between January 1988 and December 2000. The incidence and risk factors for CMV infection during the first year after transplantation were studied. Risk factors for CAV were included in an analyses of CAV-free survival within 10 years post-transplant. The effect of CMV infection on the grade of CAV was analyzed. RESULTS Survival to 10 years post-transplant was higher in patients with no CMV infection (69 %) compared with patients with CMV disease (55 %; p = 0.018) or asymptomatic CMV infection (54 %; p = 0.053). CAV-free survival time was higher in patients with no CMV infection (6.7 years; 95 % CI, 6.0-7.4) compared with CMV disease (4.2 years; CI, 3.2-5.2; p < 0.001) or asymptomatic CMV infection (5.4 years; CI, 4.3-6.4; p = 0.013). In univariate analysis, recipient age, donor age, coronary artery disease (CAD), asymptomatic CMV infection and CMV disease were significantly associated with CAV-free survival. In multivariate regression analysis, CMV disease, asymptomatic CMV infection, CAD and donor age remained independent predictors of CAV-free survival at 10 years post-transplant. CONCLUSIONS CAV-free survival was significantly reduced in patients with CMV disease and asymptomatic CMV infection compared to patients without CMV infection. These findings highlight the importance of close monitoring of CMV viral load and appropriate therapeutic strategies for preventing asymptomatic CMV infection.

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BACKGROUND Calcium disorders are common in both intensive care units and in patients with chronic kidney disease and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. It is unknown whether calcium abnormalities in unselected emergency department admissions have an impact on in-hospital mortality. METHODS This cross-sectional analysis included all admissions to the Emergency Department at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland from 2010 to 2011. For hyper- and hypocalcaemic patients with a Mann-Whitney U-test, the differences between subgroups divided by age, length of hospital stay, creatinine, sodium, chloride, phosphate, potassium and magnesium were compared. Associations between calcium disorders and 28-day in-hospital mortality were assessed using the Cox proportional hazard regression model. RESULTS 8,270 patients with calcium measurements were included in our study. Overall 264 (3.2%) patients died. 150 patients (6.13%) with hypocalcaemia and 7 patients with hypercalcaemia (6.19%) died, in contrast to 104 normocalcaemic patients (1.82%). In univariate analysis, calcium serum levels were associated with sex, mortality and pre-existing diuretic therapy (all p<0.05). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, hypocalcaemia and hypercalcaemia were independent risk factors for mortality (HR 2.00 and HR 1.88, respectively; both p<0.01). CONCLUSION Both hypocalcaemia and hypercalcaemia are associated with increased 28-day in-hospital mortality in unselected emergency department admissions.

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BACKGROUND Phosphate imbalances or disorders have a high risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease. It is unknown if this finding extends to mortality in patients presenting at an emergency room with or without normal kidney function. METHODS AND PATIENTS This cross sectional analysis included all emergency room patients between 2010 and 2011 at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland. A multivariable cox regression model was applied to assess the association between phosphate levels and in-hospital mortality up to 28 days. RESULTS 22,239 subjects were screened for the study. Plasma phosphate concentrations were measured in 2,390 patients on hospital admission and were included in the analysis. 3.5% of the 480 patients with hypophosphatemia and 10.7% of the 215 patients with hyperphosphatemia died. In univariate analysis, phosphate levels were associated with mortality, age, diuretic therapy and kidney function (all p<0.001). In a multivariate Cox regression model, hyperphosphatemia (OR 3.29, p<0.001) was a strong independent risk factor for mortality. Hypophosphatemia was not associated with mortality (p>0.05). CONCLUSION Hyperphosphatemia is associated with 28-day in-hospital mortality in an unselected cohort of patients presenting in an emergency room.

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BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to identify clinical variables that may predict the need for adjuvant radiotherapy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) and radical surgery in locally advanced cervical cancer patients. METHODS A retrospective series of cervical cancer patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stages IB2-IIB treated with NACT followed by radical surgery was analyzed. Clinical predictors of persistence of intermediate- and/or high-risk factors at final pathological analysis were investigated. Statistical analysis was performed using univariate and multivariate analysis and using a model based on artificial intelligence known as artificial neuronal network (ANN) analysis. RESULTS Overall, 101 patients were available for the analyses. Fifty-two (51 %) patients were considered at high risk secondary to parametrial, resection margin and/or lymph node involvement. When disease was confined to the cervix, four (4 %) patients were considered at intermediate risk. At univariate analysis, FIGO grade 3, stage IIB disease at diagnosis and the presence of enlarged nodes before NACT predicted the presence of intermediate- and/or high-risk factors at final pathological analysis. At multivariate analysis, only FIGO grade 3 and tumor diameter maintained statistical significance. The specificity of ANN models in evaluating predictive variables was slightly superior to conventional multivariable models. CONCLUSIONS FIGO grade, stage, tumor diameter, and histology are associated with persistence of pathological intermediate- and/or high-risk factors after NACT and radical surgery. This information is useful in counseling patients at the time of treatment planning with regard to the probability of being subjected to pelvic radiotherapy after completion of the initially planned treatment.

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Background: Tumor infiltrating T-lymphocytes (TILs) have been shown to play an important prognostic role in many carcinomas. The identification of prognostic relevant morphological or molecular factors is a major area of interest in the diagnostic process and for the treatment of highly aggressive esophageal adenocarcinoma. Studies about the impact of TILs in this tumor have not shown completely congruent results yet. We present a comprehensive study about the clinical and pathological impact of TIL in esophageal adenocarcinomas. Methods: A next generation tissue microarray (TMA) of 117 primary resected esophageal adenocarcinomas was analyzed for CD3+, CD8+ and FoxP3+ TIL using immunohistochemistry. The TMA contained three cores of the tumor center and the tumor periphery per each case. Slides were scanned with a high-resolution scanner (ScanScope CS; Aperio) and an image analysis software (Aperio Image Scope) was used to determine the TIL counts. The results were correlated with clinicopathological parameters. Results: CD3+, CD8+ and FoxP3+ TIL counts showed a significant correlation among each other (p<0.001 each, range: 0.27-0.77). TIL counts were categorized as high and low levels, according to the median. Tumors with high FoxP3+ intratumoral lymphocyte counts were more frequently of lower pT category (p<0.001) and without lymph node metastasis (p=0.04). High levels of FoxP3+ lymphocytes in the tumor center and the periphery were also associated with better prognosis (p<0.001 and p=0.041, respectively) in univariate analysis. A similar prognostic impact was seen for high levels of CD3+ and CD8+ TIL in the tumor center, but not in the periphery (p=0.047 and p=0.011, respectively). In multivariate analysis high central FoxP3+TIL levels were an independent prognostic factor (HR=0.4; p=0.023) which was similar to a combination score of CD3+/CD8+/FoxP3+ TIL (HR=0.54; p=0.027) or CD8+/Foxp3+ TIL (HR=0.052; p=0.020) and superior to pT- and pN category (p>0.05 each). Conclusion: This study demonstrates a significant beneficial prognostic impact of high TIL counts in the tumor center of esophageal adenocarcinomas, in particular with regards to the subpopulation of FoxP3+ and CD8+ T-regulatory cells. The determination of intratumoral lymphocytic counts and application of TIL scores can improve prognostic accuracy of pathologic reports of these tumors and may be helpful for better risk stratification of esophageal adenocarcinoma patients.

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BACKGROUND There has been little research on bathroom accidents. It is unknown whether the shower or bathtub are connected with special dangers in different age groups or whether there are specific risk factors for adverse outcomes. METHODS This cross-sectional analysis included all direct admissions to the Emergency Department at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland from 1 January 2000 to 28 February 2014 after accidents associated with the bathtub or shower. Time, age, location, mechanism and diagnosis were assessed and special risk factors were examined. Patient groups with and without intracranial bleeding were compared with the Mann-Whitney U test.The association of risk factors with intracranial bleeding was investigated using univariate analysis with Fisher's exact test or logistic regression. The effects of different variables on cerebral bleeding were analysed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS Two hundred and eighty (280) patients with accidents associated with the bathtub or shower were included in our study. Two hundred and thirty-five (235) patients suffered direct trauma by hitting an object (83.9%) and traumatic brain injury (TBI) was detected in 28 patients (10%). Eight (8) of the 27 patients with mild traumatic brain injuries (GCS 13-15), (29.6%) exhibited intracranial haemorrhage. All patients with intracranial haemorrhage were older than 48 years and needed in-hospital treatment. Patients with intracranial haemorrhage were significantly older and had higher haemoglobin levels than the control group with TBI but without intracranial bleeding (p<0.05 for both).In univariate analysis, we found that intracranial haemorrhage in patients with TBI was associated with direct trauma in general and with age (both p<0.05), but not with the mechanism of the fall, its location (shower or bathtub) or the gender of the patient. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified only age as a risk factor for cerebral bleeding (p<0.05; OR 1.09 (CI 1.01;1.171)). CONCLUSION In patients with ED admissions associated with the bathtub or shower direct trauma and age are risk factors for intracranial haemorrhage. Additional effort in prevention should be considered, especially in the elderly.

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Giardia duodenalis is considered the most common protozoan infecting humans worldwide. Molecular characterization of G. duodenalis isolates has revealed the existence of eight groups (assemblages A to H) which differ in their host distribution. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 639 children from La Habana between January and December 2013. Two assemblage-specific PCRs were carried out for the molecular characterization. The overall prevalence of Giardia infection was 11.9%. DNA from 63 of 76 (82.9%) samples was successfully amplified by PCR-tpi, while 58 from 76 (76.3%) were detected by PCRE1-HF. Similar results by both PCRs were obtained in 54 from 76 samples (71%). According to these analyses, assemblage B and mixed assemblages A + B account for most of the Giardia infections in the cohort of children tested. Our current study identified assemblage B as predominant genotype in children infected with Giardia. Univariate analysis indicated that omission of washing hands before eating and keeping dogs at home were significant risk factors for a Giardia infection. In the future, novel molecular tools for a better discrimination of assemblages at the subassemblages level are needed to verify possible correlations between Giardia genotypes and symptomatology of giardiasis.

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Our society uses a large diversity of co-existing wired and wireless networks in order to satisfy its communication needs. A cooper- ation between these networks can benefit performance, service availabil- ity and deployment ease, and leads to the emergence of hybrid networks. This position paper focuses on a hybrid mobile-sensor network identify- ing potential advantages and challenges of its use and defining feasible applications. The main value of the paper, however, is in the proposed analysis approach to evaluate the performance at the mobile network side given the mixed mobile-sensor traffic. The approach combines packet- level analysis with modelling of flow-level behaviour and can be applied for the study of various application scenarios. In this paper we consider two applications with distinct traffic models namely multimedia traffic and best-effort traffic.

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The B-box motif is the defining feature of the TRIM family of proteins, characterized by a RING finger-B-box-coiled coil tripartite fold. We have elucidated the crystal structure of B-box 2 (B2) from MuRF1, a TRIM protein that supports a wide variety of protein interactions in the sarcomere and regulates the trophic state of striated muscle tissue. MuRF1 B2 coordinates two zinc ions through a cross-brace alpha/beta-topology typical of members of the RING finger superfamily. However, it self-associates into dimers with high affinity. The dimerization pattern is mediated by the helical component of this fold and is unique among RING-like folds. This B2 reveals a long shallow groove that encircles the C-terminal metal binding site ZnII and appears as the defining protein-protein interaction feature of this domain. A cluster of conserved hydrophobic residues in this groove and, in particular, a highly conserved aromatic residue (Y133 in MuRF1 B2) is likely to be central to this role. We expect these findings to aid the future exploration of the cellular function and therapeutic potential of MuRF1.

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Objective: Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. Method: TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. Results: TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy.