67 resultados para Uncertainty propagation


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The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

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We provide statistical evidence of the effect of the solar wind dynamic pressure (Psw) on the northern winter and spring circulations. We find that the vertical structure of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), the zonal mean circulation, and Eliassen-Palm (EP)-flux anomalies show a dynamically consistent pattern of downward propagation over a period of ~45 days in response to positive Psw anomalies. When the solar irradiance is high, the signature of Psw is marked by a positive NAM anomaly descending from the stratosphere to the surface during winter. When the solar irradiance is low, the Psw signal has the opposite sign, occurs in spring, and is confined to the stratosphere. The negative Psw signal in the NAM under low solar irradiance conditions is primarily governed by enhanced vertical EP-flux divergence and a warmer polar region. The winter Psw signal under high solar irradiance conditions is associated with positive anomalies of the horizontal EP-flux divergence at 55°N–75°N and negative anomalies at 25°N–45°N, which corresponds to the positive NAM anomaly. The EP-flux divergence anomalies occur ~15 days ahead of the mean-flow changes. A significant equatorward shift of synoptic-scale Rossby wave breaking (RWB) near the tropopause is detected during January–March, corresponding to increased anticyclonic RWB and a decrease in cyclonic RWB. We suggest that the barotropic instability associated with asymmetric ozone in the upper stratosphere and the baroclinic instability associated with the polar vortex in the middle and lower stratosphere play a critical role for the winter signal and its downward propagation.

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Long-term propagation of inner ear-derived progenitor/stem cells beyond the third generation and differentiation into inner ear cell types has been shown to be feasible, but challenging. We investigated whether the known neuroprotective guanidine compound creatine (Cr) promotes propagation of inner ear progenitor/stem cells as mitogen-expanded neurosphere cultures judged from the formation of spheres over passages. In addition, we studied whether Cr alone or in combination with brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) promotes neuronal differentiation of inner ear progenitors. For this purpose, early postnatal rat spiral ganglia, utricle, and organ of Corti-derived progenitors were grown as floating spheres in the absence (controls) or presence of Cr (5 mM) from passage 3 onward. Similarly, dissociated sphere-derived cultures were differentiated for 14 days in the presence or absence of Cr (5 mM) and spiral ganglia sphere-derived cultures in a combination of Cr with the neurotrophin BDNF (50 ng/ml). We found that the cumulative total number of spheres over all passages was significantly higher after Cr supplementation as compared with controls in all the three inner ear cultures. In contrast, sphere sizes were not affected by the administration of Cr. Administration of Cr during differentiation of spiral ganglia cells resulted in a significantly higher density of β-III-tubulin-positive cells compared with controls, whereas densities of myosin VIIa-positive cells in cultures of utricle and organ of Corti were not affected by the treatment. Importantly, a combination of Cr with the neurotrophin BDNF resulted in further significantly increased densities of β-III-tubulin-positive cells in cultures of spiral ganglia cells as compared with single treatments. In sum, Cr promoted continuing propagation of rat inner ear-derived progenitor cells and supported specifically in combination with BDNF the differentiation of neuronal cell types from spiral ganglion-derived spheres.

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The lack of a permissive cell culture system hampers the study of human parvovirus B19 (B19V). UT7/Epo is one of the few established cell lines that can be infected with B19V but generates none or few infectious progeny. Recently, hypoxic conditions or the use of primary CD36+ erythroid progenitor cells (CD36+ EPCs) have been shown to improve the infection. These novel approaches were evaluated in infection and transfection experiments. Hypoxic conditions or the use of CD36+ EPCs resulted in a significant acceleration of the infection/transfection and a modest increase in the yield of capsid progeny. However, under all tested conditions, genome encapsidation was impaired seriously. Further analysis of the cell culture virus progeny revealed that differently to the wild-type virus, the VP1 unique region (VP1u) was exposed partially and was unable to become further externalized upon heat treatment. The fivefold axes pore, which is used for VP1u externalization and genome encapsidation, might be constricted by the atypical VP1u conformation explaining the packaging failure. Although CD36+ EPCs and hypoxia facilitate B19V infection, large quantities of infectious progeny cannot be generated due to a failure in genome encapsidation, which arises as a major limiting factor for the in vitro propagation of B19V.

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The uncertainty on the calorimeter energy response to jets of particles is derived for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). First, the calorimeter response to single isolated charged hadrons is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo simulation using proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of root s = 900 GeV and 7 TeV collected during 2009 and 2010. Then, using the decay of K-s and Lambda particles, the calorimeter response to specific types of particles (positively and negatively charged pions, protons, and anti-protons) is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo predictions. Finally, the jet energy scale uncertainty is determined by propagating the response uncertainty for single charged and neutral particles to jets. The response uncertainty is 2-5 % for central isolated hadrons and 1-3 % for the final calorimeter jet energy scale.