Consistent estimation of the fixed effects ordered logit model

The paper considers panel data methods for estimating ordered logit models with individual-specific correlated unobserved heterogeneity. We show that a popular approach is inconsistent, whereas some consistent and efficient estimators are available, including minimum distance and generalized method-of-moment estimators. A Monte Carlo study reveals the good properties of an alternative estimator that has not been considered in econometric applications before, is simple to implement and almost as efficient. An illustrative application based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel confirms the large negative effect of unemployment on life satisfaction that has been found in the previous literature.

Modeling absolute differences in life expectancy with a censored skew-normal regression approach.

Parameter estimates from commonly used multivariable parametric survival regression models do not directly quantify differences in years of life expectancy. Gaussian linear regression models give results in terms of absolute mean differences, but are not appropriate in modeling life expectancy, because in many situations time to death has a negative skewed distribution. A regression approach using a skew-normal distribution would be an alternative to parametric survival models in the modeling of life expectancy, because parameter estimates can be interpreted in terms of survival time differences while allowing for skewness of the distribution. In this paper we show how to use the skew-normal regression so that censored and left-truncated observations are accounted for. With this we model differences in life expectancy using data from the Swiss National Cohort Study and from official life expectancy estimates and compare the results with those derived from commonly used survival regression models. We conclude that a censored skew-normal survival regression approach for left-truncated observations can be used to model differences in life expectancy across covariates of interest.

Biochemical MRI predicts hip osteoarthritis in an experimental ovine femoroacetabular impingement model

BACKGROUND Cam-type femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) resulting from an abnormal nonspherical femoral head shape leads to chondrolabral damage and is considered a cause of early osteoarthritis. A previously developed experimental ovine FAI model induces a cam-type impingement that results in localized chondrolabral damage, replicating the patterns found in the human hip. Biochemical MRI modalities such as T2 and T2* may allow for evaluation of the cartilage biochemistry long before cartilage loss occurs and, for that reason, may be a worthwhile avenue of inquiry. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES We asked: (1) Does the histological grading of degenerated cartilage correlate with T2 or T2* values in this ovine FAI model? (2) How accurately can zones of degenerated cartilage be predicted with T2 or T2* MRI in this model? METHODS A cam-type FAI was induced in eight Swiss alpine sheep by performing a closing wedge intertrochanteric varus osteotomy. After ambulation of 10 to 14 weeks, the sheep were euthanized and a 3-T MRI of the hip was performed. T2 and T2* values were measured at six locations on the acetabulum and compared with the histological damage pattern using the Mankin score. This is an established histological scoring system to quantify cartilage degeneration. Both T2 and T2* values are determined by cartilage water content and its collagen fiber network. Of those, the T2* mapping is a more modern sequence with technical advantages (eg, shorter acquisition time). Correlation of the Mankin score and the T2 and T2* values, respectively, was evaluated using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. We used a hierarchical cluster analysis to calculate the positive and negative predictive values of T2 and T2* to predict advanced cartilage degeneration (Mankin ≥ 3). RESULTS We found a negative correlation between the Mankin score and both the T2 (p < 0.001, r = -0.79) and T2* values (p < 0.001, r = -0.90). For the T2 MRI technique, we found a positive predictive value of 100% (95% confidence interval [CI], 79%-100%) and a negative predictive value of 84% (95% CI, 67%-95%). For the T2* technique, we found a positive predictive value of 100% (95% CI, 79%-100%) and a negative predictive value of 94% (95% CI, 79%-99%). CONCLUSIONS T2 and T2* MRI modalities can reliably detect early cartilage degeneration in the experimental ovine FAI model. CLINICAL RELEVANCE T2 and T2* MRI modalities have the potential to allow for monitoring the natural course of osteoarthrosis noninvasively and to evaluate the results of surgical treatments targeted to joint preservation.

Time-order errors and standard-position effects in duration discrimination: An experimental study and an analysis by the sensation-weighting model

Studies have shown that the discriminability of successive time intervals depends on the presentation order of the standard (St) and the comparison (Co) stimuli. Also, this order affects the point of subjective equality. The first effect is here called the standard-position effect (SPE); the latter is known as the time-order error. In the present study, we investigated how these two effects vary across interval types and standard durations, using Hellström’s sensation-weighting model to describe the results and relate them to stimulus comparison mechanisms. In Experiment 1, four modes of interval presentation were used, factorially combining interval type (filled, empty) and sensory modality (auditory, visual). For each mode, two presentation orders (St–Co, Co–St) and two standard durations (100 ms, 1,000 ms) were used; half of the participants received correctness feedback, and half of them did not. The interstimulus interval was 900 ms. The SPEs were negative (i.e., a smaller difference limen for St–Co than for Co–St), except for the filled-auditory and empty-visual 100-ms standards, for which a positive effect was obtained. In Experiment 2, duration discrimination was investigated for filled auditory intervals with four standards between 100 and 1,000 ms, an interstimulus interval of 900 ms, and no feedback. Standard duration interacted with presentation order, here yielding SPEs that were negative for standards of 100 and 1,000 ms, but positive for 215 and 464 ms. Our findings indicate that the SPE can be positive as well as negative, depending on the interval type and standard duration, reflecting the relative weighting of the stimulus information, as is described by the sensation-weighting model.

Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model.

BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24, and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown. METHODS We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB, and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and used literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure. RESULTS The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged <5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years. CONCLUSION The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients are the key determinants of the age-structure of TB notification rates in Cape Town.

Loss of Nogo-A-expressing neurons in a rat model of Parkinson's disease

The myelin-associated protein Nogo-A is among the most potent neurite growth inhibitors in the adult CNS. Recently, Nogo-A expression was demonstrated in a number of neuronal subpopulations of the adult and developing CNS but at present, little is known about the expression of Nogo-A in the nigrostriatal system, a brain structure severely affected in Parkinson's disease (PD). The present study sought to characterize the expression pattern of Nogo-A immunoreactive (ir) cells in the adult ventral mesencephalon of control rats and in the 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) rat model of PD. Immunohistochemical analyses of normal adult rat brain showed a distinct expression of Nogo-A in the ventral mesencephalon, with the highest level in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc) where it co-localized with dopaminergic neurons. Analyses conducted 1week and 1 month after unilateral striatal injections of 6-OHDA disclosed a severe loss of the number of Nogo-A-ir cells in the SNc. Notably, at 1week after treatment, more dopaminergic neurons expressing Nogo-A were affected by the 6-OHDA toxicity than Nogo-A-negative dopaminergic neurons. However, at later time points more of the surviving dopaminergic neurons expressed Nogo-A. In the striatum, both small and large Nogo-A-positive cells were detected. The large cells were identified as cholinergic interneurons. Our results suggest yet unidentified functions of Nogo-A in the CNS beyond the inhibition of axonal regeneration and plasticity, and may indicate a role for Nogo-A in PD.