Voter Participation in the 1998 Bundestag Elections: A Theoretical Modification and Empirical Application of Downs’ Theory of Voter Participation

This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.

A Restriction-Centered Theory of Reasoning and Computation to materialize a Web 3.0

Researchers suggest that personalization on the Semantic Web adds up to a Web 3.0 eventually. In this Web, personalized agents process and thus generate the biggest share of information rather than humans. In the sense of emergent semantics, which supplements traditional formal semantics of the Semantic Web, this is well conceivable. An emergent Semantic Web underlying fuzzy grassroots ontology can be accomplished through inducing knowledge from users' common parlance in mutual Web 2.0 interactions [1]. These ontologies can also be matched against existing Semantic Web ontologies, to create comprehensive top-level ontologies. On the Web, if augmented with information in the form of restrictions andassociated reliability (Z-numbers) [2], this collection of fuzzy ontologies constitutes an important basis for an implementation of Zadeh's restriction-centered theory of reasoning and computation (RRC) [3]. By considering real world's fuzziness, RRC differs from traditional approaches because it can handle restrictions described in natural language. A restriction is an answer to a question of the value of a variable such as the duration of an appointment. In addition to mathematically well-defined answers, RRC can likewise deal with unprecisiated answers as "about one hour." Inspired by mental functions, it constitutes an important basis to leverage present-day Web efforts to a natural Web 3.0. Based on natural language information, RRC may be accomplished with Z-number calculation to achieve a personalized Web reasoning and computation. Finally, through Web agents' understanding of natural language, they can react to humans more intuitively and thus generate and process information.

Effect of electromagnetic fields on highly diluted remedies measured by ultraviolet spectroscopy

Purpose: In homeopathy or anthroposophically extended medicine high dilutions are used. They showed significant differences in ultraviolet light (UV) transmission between controls and different dilution levels. Exposing such dilutions to physical factors such as UV light or elevated temperature (37�C) yielded significantly different UV transmissions values compared to unexposed dilutions. The aim was to test whether electromagnetic fields (EMF) of a mobile phone affect the UV absorbance of dilutions of Atropa belladonna (Ab) and quartz. Methods: Commercially available dilutions of Ab 4x, 6x, 12x, 15x, 30x and of quartz 6x, 12x, 15x, 30x were investigated. On 5 days, 4 samples of each dilution were exposed to the EMF by a mobile phone at 900MHz (GSM) with an output power of 2W for 3 h. Control samples were kept in a separate room. UV-absorbance of the samples in the range from 190 to 340 nm was measured in randomized order. The average absorbance from 200 to 340 nm and from 200 to 240 nm was compared between exposed and unexposed samples by a dependent t-test. Results: Between unexposed and exposed dilutions of Ab and quartz no significant differences were detected, except for quartz 12x over the range from 200 to 340 nm. Conclusion: Exposure of high dilutions of Ab and quartz to GSM EMF of a mobile phone did not alter UV absorbance of these dilutions.

A Normative Theory of Forgetting: Lessons from the Fruit Fly

Recent experiments revealed that the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster has a dedicated mechanism for forgetting: blocking the G-protein Rac leads to slower and activating Rac to faster forgetting. This active form of forgetting lacks a satisfactory functional explanation. We investigated optimal decision making for an agent adapting to a stochastic environment where a stimulus may switch between being indicative of reward or punishment. Like Drosophila, an optimal agent shows forgetting with a rate that is linked to the time scale of changes in the environment. Moreover, to reduce the odds of missing future reward, an optimal agent may trade the risk of immediate pain for information gain and thus forget faster after aversive conditioning. A simple neuronal network reproduces these features. Our theory shows that forgetting in Drosophila appears as an optimal adaptive behavior in a changing environment. This is in line with the view that forgetting is adaptive rather than a consequence of limitations of the memory system.

A feasible theory of truth over combinatory algebra

We define an applicative theory of truth TPT which proves totality exactly for the polynomial time computable functions. TPT has natural and simple axioms since nearly all its truth axioms are standard for truth theories over an applicative framework. The only exception is the axiom dealing with the word predicate. The truth predicate can only reflect elementhood in the words for terms that have smaller length than a given word. This makes it possible to achieve the very low proof-theoretic strength. Truth induction can be allowed without any constraints. For these reasons the system TPT has the high expressive power one expects from truth theories. It allows embeddings of feasible systems of explicit mathematics and bounded arithmetic. The proof that the theory TPT is feasible is not easy. It is not possible to apply a standard realisation approach. For this reason we develop a new realisation approach whose realisation functions work on directed acyclic graphs. In this way, we can express and manipulate realisation information more efficiently.

Development of meta-representations: Procedural metacognition and the relationship to Theory of Mind

In several studies it was shown that metacognitive ability is crucial for children and their success in school. Much less is known about the emergence of that ability and its relationship to other meta-representations like Theory of Mind competencies. In the past years, a growing literature has suggested that metacognition and Theory of Mind could theoretically be assumed to belong to the same developmental concept. Since then only a few studies showed empirically evidence that metacognition and Theory of Mind are related. But these studies focused on declarative metacognitive knowledge rather than on procedural metacognitive monitoring like in the present study: N = 159 children were first tested shortly before making the transition to school (aged between 5 1/2 and 7 1/2 years) and one year later at the end of their first grade. Analyses suggest that there is in fact a significant relation between early metacognitive monitoring skills (procedural metacognition) and later Theory of Mind competencies. Notably, language seems to play a crucial role in this relationship. Thus our results bring new insights in the research field of the development of meta-representation and support the view that metacognition and Theory of Mind are indeed interrelated, but the precise mechanisms yet remain unclear.

Details of left ventricular radial wall motion supporting the ventricular theory of the third heart sound obtained by cardiac MR.

OBJECTIVE Obtaining new details of radial motion of left ventricular (LV) segments using velocity-encoding cardiac MRI. METHODS Cardiac MR examinations were performed on 14 healthy volunteers aged between 19 and 26 years. Cine images for navigator-gated phase contrast velocity mapping were acquired using a black blood segmented κ-space spoiled gradient echo sequence with a temporal resolution of 13.8 ms. Peak systolic and diastolic radial velocities as well as radial velocity curves were obtained for 16 ventricular segments. RESULTS Significant differences among peak radial velocities of basal and mid-ventricular segments have been recorded. Particular patterns of segmental radial velocity curves were also noted. An additional wave of outward radial movement during the phase of rapid ventricular filling, corresponding to the expected timing of the third heart sound, appeared of particular interest. CONCLUSION The technique has allowed visualization of new details of LV radial wall motion. In particular, higher peak systolic radial velocities of anterior and inferior segments are suggestive of a relatively higher dynamics of anteroposterior vs lateral radial motion in systole. Specific patterns of radial motion of other LV segments may provide additional insights into LV mechanics. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE The outward radial movement of LV segments impacted by the blood flow during rapid ventricular filling provides a potential substrate for the third heart sound. A biphasic radial expansion of the basal anteroseptal segment in early diastole is likely to be related to the simultaneous longitudinal LV displacement by the stretched great vessels following repolarization and their close apposition to this segment.

Quarks and a Unified Theory of Nature Fundamental Forces

Quarks were introduced 50 years ago opening the road towards our understanding of the elementary constituents of matter and their fundamental interactions. Since then, a spectacular progress has been made with important discoveries that led to the establishment of the Standard Theory that describes accurately the basic constituents of the observable matter, namely quarks and leptons, interacting with the exchange of three fundamental forces, the weak, electromagnetic and strong force. Particle physics is now entering a new era driven by the quest of understanding of the composition of our Universe such as the unobservable (dark) matter, the hierarchy of masses and forces, the unification of all fundamental interactions with gravity in a consistent quantum framework, and several other important questions. A candidate theory providing answers to many of these questions is string theory that replaces the notion of point particles by extended objects, such as closed and open strings. In this short note, I will give a brief overview of string unification, describe in particular how quarks and leptons can emerge and discuss what are possible predictions for particle physics and cosmology that could test these ideas.

Microscopic theory of cooperative spin crossover: Interaction of molecular modes with phonons

In this article, we present a new microscopic theoretical approach to the description of spin crossover in molecular crystals. The spin crossover crystals under consideration are composed of molecular fragments formed by the spin-crossover metal ion and its nearest ligand surrounding and exhibiting well defined localized (molecular) vibrations. As distinguished from the previous models of this phenomenon, the developed approach takes into account the interaction of spin-crossover ions not only with the phonons but also a strong coupling of the electronic shells with molecular modes. This leads to an effective coupling of the local modes with phonons which is shown to be responsible for the cooperative spin transition accompanied by the structural reorganization. The transition is characterized by the two order parameters representing the mean values of the products of electronic diagonal matrices and the coordinates of the local modes for the high- and low-spin states of the spin crossover complex. Finally, we demonstrate that the approach provides a reasonable explanation of the observed spin transition in the [Fe(ptz)6](BF4)2 crystal. The theory well reproduces the observed abrupt low-spin → high-spin transition and the temperature dependence of the high-spin fraction in a wide temperature range as well as the pronounced hysteresis loop. At the same time within the limiting approximations adopted in the developed model, the evaluated high-spin fraction vs. T shows that the cooperative spin-lattice transition proves to be incomplete in the sense that the high-spin fraction does not reach its maximum value at high temperature.