Do Words Matter? The Impact of Communication on the PIIGS' CDS and Bond Yield Spreads during Europe's Sovereign Debt Crisis

The paper aims to shed light on the role of communication in the European debt crisis. It examines the effects of public statements by ECB Governing Council members, EU officials and national representatives on the PIIGS' CDS and bond yield spreads. The focus lies on dovish statements that signal strong determination in the rescue of indebted countries, and hawkish statements that indicate limited commitment to support the PIIGS and protect its creditors. The analysis of daily data for the period between January 1, 2009 and August 12, 2011 in an EGARCH framework suggests that communication by representatives of Germany, France, and the EU as well as ECB Governing Council members had an immediate impact on both types of securities. No effects.

Foundations of stochastic geometry and theory of random sets

The first section of this chapter starts with the Buffon problem, which is one of the oldest in stochastic geometry, and then continues with the definition of measures on the space of lines. The second section defines random closed sets and related measurability issues, explains how to characterize distributions of random closed sets by means of capacity functionals and introduces the concept of a selection. Based on this concept, the third section starts with the definition of the expectation and proves its convexifying effect that is related to the Lyapunov theorem for ranges of vector-valued measures. Finally, the strong law of large numbers for Minkowski sums of random sets is proved and the corresponding limit theorem is formulated. The chapter is concluded by a discussion of the union-scheme for random closed sets and a characterization of the corresponding stable laws.

Voter Participation in the 1998 Bundestag Elections: A Theoretical Modification and Empirical Application of Downs’ Theory of Voter Participation

This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.

A Restriction-Centered Theory of Reasoning and Computation to materialize a Web 3.0

Researchers suggest that personalization on the Semantic Web adds up to a Web 3.0 eventually. In this Web, personalized agents process and thus generate the biggest share of information rather than humans. In the sense of emergent semantics, which supplements traditional formal semantics of the Semantic Web, this is well conceivable. An emergent Semantic Web underlying fuzzy grassroots ontology can be accomplished through inducing knowledge from users' common parlance in mutual Web 2.0 interactions [1]. These ontologies can also be matched against existing Semantic Web ontologies, to create comprehensive top-level ontologies. On the Web, if augmented with information in the form of restrictions andassociated reliability (Z-numbers) [2], this collection of fuzzy ontologies constitutes an important basis for an implementation of Zadeh's restriction-centered theory of reasoning and computation (RRC) [3]. By considering real world's fuzziness, RRC differs from traditional approaches because it can handle restrictions described in natural language. A restriction is an answer to a question of the value of a variable such as the duration of an appointment. In addition to mathematically well-defined answers, RRC can likewise deal with unprecisiated answers as "about one hour." Inspired by mental functions, it constitutes an important basis to leverage present-day Web efforts to a natural Web 3.0. Based on natural language information, RRC may be accomplished with Z-number calculation to achieve a personalized Web reasoning and computation. Finally, through Web agents' understanding of natural language, they can react to humans more intuitively and thus generate and process information.

Social skills as predictors of communication, performance and quality of collaboration in project-based learning

The assumption that social skills are necessary ingredients of collaborative learning is well established but rarely empirically tested. In addition, most theories on collaborative learning focus on social skills only at the personal level, while the social skill configurations within a learning group might be of equal importance. Using the integrative framework, this study investigates which social skills at the personal level and at the group level are predictive of task-related e-mail communication, satisfaction with performance and perceived quality of collaboration. Data collection took place in a technology-enhanced long-term project-based learning setting for pre-service teachers. For data collection, two questionnaires were used, one at the beginning and one at the end of the learning cycle which lasted 3 months. During the project phase, the e-mail communication between group members was captured as well. The investigation of 60 project groups (N = 155 for the questionnaires; group size: two or three students) and 33 groups for the e-mail communication (N = 83) revealed that personal social skills played only a minor role compared to group level configurations of social skills in predicting satisfaction with performance, perceived quality of collaboration and communication behaviour. Members from groups that showed a high and/or homogeneous configuration of specific social skills (e.g., cooperation/compromising, leadership) usually were more satisfied and saw their group as more efficient than members from groups with a low and/or heterogeneous configuration of skills.